Detailed Technical Analysis of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) as of August 1, 2025

1. Trend Analysis (Daily)

Examining the daily price movements, LCID exhibited a pronounced surge starting mid-July, in particular with the July 17, 2025, session (high volume, high volatility, large green candle), followed by a multi-session rally peaking in the $3.30 region intraday on July 23. This was met with clear resistance, as evidenced by subsequent rejection and a gradual stair-step downtrend into early August. The price now sits at $2.42, notably below both short-term and intermediate moving average resistance zones formed by the prior peaks around $2.60-$2.80.

Recent days have seen heavier selling on larger volume spikes (notably July 29, 30, and 31), and lower lows, echoing bearish follow-through—this is suggestive of profit-taking and increased supply overwhelming demand. The lower highs pattern since July 23, combined with declining volume today relative to the peak, points to a loss of bullish momentum.

2. Volume Analysis

Volume peaked at several notable points: July 17 (940M shares), July 22–23 (over 250M), and most recently, July 29–August 1 clusters around 90M–120M per day, indicating institutional activity. The pattern of elevated volume on down days, especially during the pullbacks from $3.30, signals distribution. Today's relative decrease in volume as price approaches $2.40 suggests demand has yet to return. This supports bearish short-term sentiment.

3. Candlestick & Intraday Analysis

August 1’s session is characterized by a lower open, weak rallies, and a close near the upper end of the daily range. The hourly breakdown shows late-session consolidation, with minor resistance established at the $2.44 level. No strong reversal candlesticks are present; rather, wicks at the upper edge suggest failed bullish attempts. This is further confirmed by the high volume flushes last week—classic signs of exhaustion at the buy side and failed attempts to regain bullish traction.

4. Moving Average Analysis

• Short-term (10/21 EMA): A likely cross below both the 10 and 21 period EMAs is hereby noted, reflecting a bearish momentum shift.
• 50-Day Moving Average: Price is beneath the 50-day MA, historically bearish unless significant support reappears.
• 200-Day Moving Average: The 200-day is far higher and irrelevant for the current trading range, reinforcing a bearish bias.

5. RSI & Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14): Estimated around 41–45, based on the several down days and the recent bounce. This places the stock out of oversold territory, but still well below neutral (50), implying lingering downward pressure.
• MACD: The MACD line has likely crossed below the signal line following the July 23 peak—bearish momentum confirmation.
• Stochastic OSC: Would show a downward crossover, echoing the loss of short-term momentum, especially as attempts at reversal produce only weak bounces.

6. Support & Resistance Mapping

• Key Resistance: $2.44–$2.50 (today's intraday highs and prior support trapped longs); $2.60–$2.80 (recent breakdown region).
• Immediate Support: $2.35 (August 1st early low; near recent swing lows); further support at $2.20–$2.25, then $2.10.

7. Chart Patterns

• Descending Channel: Price action since July 23 conforms to a descending channel, with intraday bounces consistently running into sell pressure at lower highs.
• Bear Flag (Short-Term): The most recent rally from the $2.29 region resembles a classic flagpole-rise/flag-consolidation distribution often leading to breakdown.

8. Volatility & ATR

• ATR (14-Session): Estimated at about $0.14–0.18, wider than earlier in Q2, indicating heightened volatility, typically preceding sharp reversals or continuation moves. Currently, the lack of significant buyers following the recent slide suggests continued risk to the downside.

9. Fibonacci Retracement

• From the July 17 high ($3.37) to August 1 low ($2.33): The 38.2% retracement lies around $2.73, 50% at $2.85, and 61.8% at $3.00. Current price well below all retracement levels, confirming persistent selling pressure and inability to reclaim lost ground.

10. Market Structure and Sentiment

• Order Flow/Auction Analysis: Today’s tight hourly closes near $2.42 despite attempts to break higher on low volume highlights a lack of urgency among bulls and willingness of sellers to step in at slightly higher prices. Option flows (not observable directly here, but likely based on volume) would favor puts in this environment.

11. Summary of Technical Confluence

• Multiple indicators (trend, momentum, volume pattern, moving averages, RSI, MACD, pattern analysis) converge in painting a near-term bearish picture,
• No signs of a reversal based on price or volume dynamics; failed rallies confirm ongoing supply and profit-taking.
• Closely-watched $2.40–2.44 resistance zone should act as a magnet for stops and additional sellers.

12. Quantitative Techniques - Entry/Exit Considerations

• Short Entry: Optimal near overhead resistance/failed breakout region ($2.43–2.44).
• Target/Profit Zone: $2.25—captures a retest of recent swing lows/support and accommodates for natural volatility contraction.
• Risk Level: Stop above $2.48 (recent high).

13. Price Movement Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Expect a slight upward probe toward $2.43–2.44 as weak hands are cleared but with sellers reasserting control.
• High likelihood of renewed sell pressure pushing price back to the $2.29–2.25 zone over the next 1-2 sessions.
• Absence of bullish reversal volume, combined with persistence of lower highs/lows structure, confirms setup.

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Conclusion: High-Probability Sell (Short Position)

All technical signals and market structure favor a short entry at or just above $2.43, targeting a push back toward $2.25 as the next logical test of support. Until $2.50–2.60 is recaptured on strong volume, the path of least resistance remains down.