LPTX at a Line in the Sand: Buy the 2.00 Retest for a Reflex Pop Toward 2.50–2.60

Executive summary and immediate context

• Instrument: Leap Therapeutics, Inc. (LPTX)
• Current price: 2.05
• Regime shift: A historic volume/price shock on 2025-11-12 (close 2.05 on 786M shares) followed by two high-volatility sessions (11/13 close 1.76; 11/14 close 2.75, high 3.55). Current price 2.05 implies a sharp pullback from 11/14 close, retesting key post-shock support near the 2.00 round number and 50% retracement.
• Baseline view (next 24h): Expect a test/hold of 1.98–2.05, then a reflex bounce toward 2.40–2.60, provided 1.90 (pivot S1) holds. Break of 1.90 opens 1.75–1.60.

1. Price structure and trend diagnostics

• Structural breaks: The 11/12 gap-and-go event transitioned LPTX from a sub-0.50 micro-cap regime to a multi-dollar, high-volatility regime. Multiple unfilled gaps below create a vacuum of historical liquidity; however, the extraordinary volume at 1.8–2.4 built a new value area.
• Higher time-frame pivot cluster: 2.00 (round number, day-1 close), 1.91 (pivot S1 from 11/14), 1.97–1.98 (50% Fib). These levels define the bull/bear battleground.
• Sequence since event: Day 1 close strong at 2.05; Day 2 dip to 1.34 then recover to 1.76 (demand below 1.50); Day 3 blow-off high 3.55 and pullback close 2.75. Now price revisits the day-1 close: classical retest of breakout pivot.

2. Moving averages and trend overlays (daily)

• Fast MAs (5–10): The 5D SMA ≈ 1.49 (approx: 0.459 + 0.4375 + 2.05 + 1.76 + 2.75)/5. Price 2.05 trades above the 5D and 10D averages, maintaining a bullish bias despite pullback.
• Intermediate MAs (20/50): Pre-shock values were ~0.3–0.6; post-shock, these will lag sharply lower. Price is far above 20D/50D, indicating a powerful uptrend but also mean-reversion risk.
• EMA posture: Short EMAs (9/12) turned up violently; a pullback to the 9–12 EMA cluster typically occurs after such expansions. Expect that cluster to rise toward 1.9–2.1 over the next session; price near it is constructive for a bounce.
• ADX/trend strength: Trend strength spiked; a pullback within an established trend suggests continuation is probable if support holds.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14): After the 11/12 surge, RSI likely pushed into overbought territory (>70), cooled during 11/13, reaccelerated 11/14, and is now normalizing. With price back near 2.05, daily RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s—bullish but not stretched—supportive of a bounce if support holds.
• MACD: MACD line well above zero with histogram contraction post-11/14 (momentum pullback). No confirmed daily bearish cross yet; a renewed uptick from here would re-expand histogram positive.
• Stochastics: Fast stoch likely cycled down from overbought into neutral/oversold on intraday bases. This primes the tape for a reflex rally if 1.90–2.00 holds.
• ROC: Positive on a multi-day basis; short-term negative from 2.75 to 2.05 indicates healthy pullback within trend.

4. Volatility and range metrics

• ATR(14) exploded from ~0.03 to >0.60–1.50 following the event. Expect very wide intraday ranges; slippage risk is material.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Price extended beyond upper band on 11/12 and 11/14; current pullback likely remains above the rising mid-band but may still be near/above the upper band given lag. The reversion toward 2.0 is consistent with band mean reversion.
• Keltner Channels: 11/14 close outside upper KC; reverting back inside typically leads to sideways-to-up consolidation if the primary trend is intact.

5. Volume and participation

• Volume climax: 786M shares on 11/12 defines an event-driven revaluation. Subsequent volumes (38.9M on 11/13; 260.6M on 11/14) remain abnormally high, confirming broad participation.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: Massive OBV step-up on 11/12; pullback days show comparatively less distribution than accumulation, indicating dip-buying interest.
• Volume-by-price (inferred): Heavy nodes built around 1.9–2.2 and 2.4–2.8. Expect supply near 2.35–2.60 from trapped late 11/14 buyers; demand reappears near 1.90–2.05 where the day-1 close anchored psychology.

6. Support/resistance and key levels

• Round-number magnet: 2.00 is a psychological pivot and the day-1 close.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing 0.40 low on 11/04 to 3.55 high on 11/14):
  • 38.2% ≈ 2.346
  • 50% ≈ 1.975
  • 61.8% ≈ 1.603 Current 2.05 sits just above the 50% retrace—often a launchpad in strong trends.
• Pivot points (11/14 H=3.55, L=1.8901, C=2.75):
  • P ≈ 2.73
  • R1 ≈ 3.57, R2 ≈ 4.39
  • S1 ≈ 1.91, S2 ≈ 1.07 Current price is between S1 and P; S1 at ~1.91 is major support.
• Gaps: Large unfilled gaps below 1.50 and sub-1 remain latent magnets on longer horizons, but near-term the post-event value area is 1.9–2.6.

7. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAPs will vary; anchored VWAP from 11/12 event likely resides around ~2.00–2.20 given the day-1 close at 2.05 and subsequent heavy trading in the low-2s. Price near/just below AVWAP often offers tactical long entries in strong re-ratings.

8. Ichimoku profile (conceptual, daily)

• Price well above the historical cloud; Tenkan > Kijun > cloud indicates bullish regime. A pullback toward the Kijun (approx 1.9–2.1 as it catches up) is typical before another leg.

9. Parabolic SAR and PSAR flips

• After a blow-off 11/14, a PSAR trail above price may flip on strength; a re-flip to bullish would occur if price reclaims ~2.35–2.45 area. Use as a trailing guide once in profit.

10. Wyckoff and Elliott perspectives

• Wyckoff: Phase E markup occurred on 11/12. Current action resembles a re-accumulation range (AR/secondary test) with support 1.90–2.05, resistance 2.40–2.60. A sign of strength (SOS) would be a thrust through 2.60 with follow-through.
• Elliott wave (heuristic): Wave 1: 0.4 → ~2.5; Wave 2: 2.5 → 1.76; Wave 3: 1.76 → 3.55; Wave 4: 3.55 → ~2.0; Potential Wave 5 next if 1.90 holds, targeting 2.8–3.1 initially (not necessarily in 24h, but directionally higher).

11. Harmonic and pattern reads

• Cup-and-handle-like microstructure may form with a handle between 1.95 and 2.25. A breakout handle trigger sits near 2.35–2.40.
• Blow-off and retrace anatomy: A 50% retracement to 1.98 is classic; sustained holding above it favors trend continuation.

12. Market microstructure and liquidity

• Liquidity pockets: 2.00 round number and 1.90 pivot S1 likely hold clustered stops; a quick liquidity sweep under 2.00 toward 1.90 followed by quick reclaim is a common spring setup.
• Supply overhead: Late longs from 2.7–3.0 may sell into 2.4–2.6; expect chop there on first test.

13. Statistical framing

• Z-score from 20D mean is extreme; mean reversion pressure is real, but in event-driven biotech tapes, multi-session re-pricings are common. The 50% retrace aligns with a high-probability stabilization zone.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Support test and bounce. Early dip probes 1.98–2.02; quick defense above 1.90 produces higher lows and a push to 2.40–2.60. Intraday high risk-stretch: 2.65–2.80 on momentum. Close likely 2.35–2.55 if bid persists.
• Bear case (25%): Support failure. Clean break and acceptance below 1.90 triggers stops, sliding to 1.75–1.60 (61.8% Fib) where stronger buyers re-emerge. This path likely requires negative headline/tape pressure or broad risk-off.
• Low-probability squeeze (15%): Immediate reclaim of 2.50, momentum sweep to 2.90–3.10 if shorts are crowded and liquidity thin.

15. Risk management and execution

• Slippage/halts: Expect wide spreads, potential volatility halts. Use limits; partial fills are prudent.
• Position sizing: Smaller than normal due to ATR expansion.
• Stop logic (suggested, though not asked for): Below 1.86 (beneath S1 and 50% Fib) to avoid stop hunts; tighter traders may use 1.92 with the understanding of higher whipsaw risk.
• Profit-taking: Scale out into 2.45–2.60 supply; leave a runner if 2.60 converts to support.

Synthesis and conclusion

• Multiple independent lenses (Fib 50% at ~1.98, pivot S1 ~1.91, round-number 2.00, anchored value concentration, momentum normalization without trend break) converge on 1.90–2.05 as a high-probability demand zone. Given the intact higher-timeframe trend post re-rating, the asymmetry favors a tactical long on a pullback/hold near 2.00 targeting 2.50–2.60 over the next 24h.

Trade plan (24h horizon)

• Bias: Buy the dip near 2.00–2.05 (limit entry preferred).
• Entry: 2.03 (optimal compromise between getting filled and avoiding chasing).
• Take profit: 2.55 (first overhead supply and below 38.2% Fib at ~2.346? Note: TP at 2.55 captures the supply pocket and respects intraday achievable range; aggressive traders could hold for 2.70–2.80 on momentum).
• Contingency: If 1.90 breaks and holds, step aside; reassess near 1.75–1.60.

Prediction (next 24 hours)

• Path: Early liquidity sweep into 1.98–2.02, hold above 1.90, then rotation up into 2.40–2.60, with intraday spikes possible toward 2.70. Close likely above 2.30 if buyers control the mid-day tape.