LUNR poised for a VWAP dip-and-rip toward 10: buying the breakout pullback

Step-by-step multi-technique analysis for LUNR (Intuitive Machines) over the next 24 hours

1. Market regime and trend structure

• Daily trend: After the August 14 high-volume gap-down (8/14 close 8.99 on 38.99M shares), price formed a base between ~8.30 and 9.30 through early September. Since 9/10 low at 8.30, we have higher lows and higher highs: 9/12 8.78 → 9/15 9.04 → 9/16 9.15 → 9/17 9.28 → 9/18 9.58. That marks a short-term uptrend within a still-bearish intermediate trend (50D likely above price).
• Intraday (9/18): Higher high at 9.76 with a close 9.58, slightly off highs but near session VWAP. Up-day with expanding volume (7.76M vs recent 4–7M), indicating accumulation interest.
• Conclusion: Short-term bullish momentum emerging, intermediate term still repairing.

2. Key support/resistance and structure

• Nearby supports: 9.52–9.55 (VWAP zone 9/18), 9.47–9.50 (intraday consolidation), 9.35 (9/17 close area), 9.15 (9/16 close), 8.95–9.00 (recent range top), 8.70–8.80 (value area / 20SMA vicinity).
• Overhead resistances: 9.75–9.76 (9/18 HOD), round number 10.00, 10.18–10.34 (June pivots), 10.49–10.54 (early June supply), 10.84–10.90 (50% Fib retrace/50D vicinity).
• Gap/supply: The 8/14 gap-down left heavy overhead supply beginning around low-10s; first material test is ~10.20–10.34.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle breakout above 9.30–9.35 from 9/17–9/18; measured move equal to triangle height (~0.45–0.50) adds to 9.75–9.85, next extension targets 10.10–10.20.

3. Moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 9.17 and rising; 10D SMA ≈ 8.90 and rising; 20D SMA ≈ 8.78 and rising. Price > 5/10/20 SMAs = bullish short-term alignment.
• 50D SMA (approx) near 10.7–10.9 from July/Aug averages; price < 50D, so intermediate trend still negative, implying overhead resistance into low-10s.
• 200D likely still much higher; not a driver for next 24h but confirms broader overhang.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 71 (calculated), just above the 70 overbought threshold. Interpreted in trend context, this shows strong momentum but near-term risk of a minor pullback/consolidation before continuation.
• Stochastics (qualitative): likely >80; supports a buy-the-dip mindset rather than chasing into strength.
• MACD: With price above rising short EMAs and accelerating, MACD histogram likely positive and increasing; 12/26 EMA spread turning up, indicating fresh bullish momentum.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.45 (est.), consistent with observed session ranges; expect 0.40–0.60 daily swing potential.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Mean ≈ 8.78; upper ≈ 9.43; lower ≈ 8.13. Price closed above upper band (~9.58 vs 9.43 upper), signaling short-term overbought. Typical behavior: brief consolidation or mean-reversion to upper band/VWAP zone before the next leg up if momentum persists.

6. Volume and flow

• 9/18 volume 7.76M, higher than several prior sessions, accompanying an upside breakout—constructive.
• OBV trajectory: Up over the past week; higher closes on expanding volume indicate accumulation.
• The 8/14 capitulation bar defines a major reference. Since then, net volume has stabilized; reclaiming prices above anchored VWAP from 8/14 would be a bullish confirmation; intraday action suggests we’re hovering around that zone now.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price likely below or approaching the daily Kumo given the July levels; Tenkan > Kijun short-term with price above Tenkan implies bullish impulse. A cloud breakout would occur later toward low-10s; for the next 24h, Tenkan/Kijun support sits near 9.30–9.45.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing high 13.37 on 7/23 to swing low 8.30 on 9/10)

• 38.2%: 10.24; 50%: 10.84; 61.8%: 11.44.
• First meaningful retracement target overhead = 10.24, which coincides with known resistance cluster (10.18–10.34). This is a logical 24–48h upside magnet if momentum continues.

9. Classical pivot levels for 9/19 (using 9/18 H/L/C = 9.76/9.42/9.58)

• Pivot P ≈ 9.5867
• R1 ≈ 9.753
• R2 ≈ 9.927
• R3 ≈ 10.093
• S1 ≈ 9.413
• S2 ≈ 9.247
• S3 ≈ 9.073 Interpretation: Price closed near P; a pullback to P/S1 zone (9.41–9.59) is buyable for a push into R1/R2, with R3 ~10.09 aligning with the next psychological level and our take-profit plan.

10. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• 9/18 prints show multiple re-tests of 9.60–9.63 with buyers defending dips; VWAP approximated ~9.58–9.60; close ~9.57 suggests balanced-to-bullish tone into the close.
• Liquidity pockets: 9.47–9.52 served as intraday acceptance; expect bids in that zone on initial dips.

11. Mean-reversion vs momentum overlay

• Momentum case: Breakout above 9.35, higher highs/lows, volume expansion, MACD positive—supports continuation toward 9.90–10.10 in the next session.
• Mean-reversion caveat: RSI>70 and price above upper Bollinger suggest a likely early dip to 9.48–9.55 before buyers reassert.
• Synthesis: Prefer buying a pullback to VWAP/upper-band retest rather than chasing strength into 9.75–9.85.

12. Probabilistic path (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~55%): Early dip to 9.48–9.55, then trend up toward 9.90–10.05; potential spike to 10.10 near R3 before supply responds.
• Bear case (~25%): Failure to hold 9.47 leads to 9.30–9.35 test; if broken, 9.24 (S2) possible; trend still intact above 9.15.
• Bull extension (~20%): Strong open above 9.70 leading to swift run into 10.05–10.24; fades likely near 10.20–10.24.

13. Risk management and trade plan

• Entry plan: Buy-the-dip using a limit in the 9.48–9.52 zone, aligned with P/VWAP/upper band retest and intraday acceptance.
• Initial stop (discipline, not an order requirement here): 9.28 (below 9/17 close and S2 proximity), risking ~0.22 from 9.50.
• Take-profit: 10.08, front-running Pivot R3 (10.09) and just below the round-number magnet; aligns with ATR and prior supply.
• Reward-to-risk: (10.08–9.50)/(9.50–9.28) ≈ 0.58/0.22 ≈ 2.6:1, acceptable.

14. What would invalidate

• A close back below 9.30 would negate the breakout and re-open the 9.00–9.10 range. A high-volume failure above 9.75 followed by a break of 9.35 would caution against longs.

15. Tools and techniques applied (impact summary)

• Price action/structure: Ascending triangle break favors long continuation.
• Moving averages: Bullish short-term stack; room to 50D as resistance later.
• RSI/Stoch: Overbought—prefer buying dips, not chasing breakouts.
• MACD: Positive momentum supports targeting R2–R3.
• Bollinger Bands: Close above upper band—expect a modest pullback before continuation; defines entry zone.
• ATR: Sets realistic 24h target band (~±0.45–0.60), supporting a 10.05–10.10 objective.
• Volume/OBV: Accumulation footprint; confirms breakout quality.
• Fibonacci: 10.24 (38.2% retrace) is a near-term extension target beyond our take-profit.
• Pivots/VWAP: Provide tactical levels; our entry near P and target near R3.
• Ichimoku: Short-term bullish impulse within broader cloud resistance ahead—consistent with a 24h tactical long but mindful of supply into low-10s.

Bottom line forecast (24h): Modest pullback into 9.48–9.55 is likely, followed by a push toward 9.95–10.10. Best tactic is to buy the dip with a target just under 10.10, while honoring a tight stop below 9.30 to protect against a failed breakout.

Note: LUNR is a volatile name; position sizing and strict risk controls are essential.