Step-by-Step Exhaustive Technical Analysis of MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily)

• Price Action: From early April to August 1st, MARA has experienced significant price swings. The stock surged from ~$11 in April, peaking at over $21.5 on July 14 before retracing to the current level of $15.5.
• Recent Trend: The past two weeks show a pronounced downtrend, with a series of lower highs (July 17: ~$20.2; July 21: ~$19.98; July 29: ~$17.4) and lower lows (July 23: $16.93, July 30: $16.3, Aug 1: $15.0). The last three daily closes were $16.08 (July 31), $15.5 (Aug 1), indicating continued selling pressure.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: Exceptionally high volume on July 23 ($17.57 close, 138M+ shares, well above prior days) marks a major capitulation or institutional activity, often preceding a temporary support/base.
• Recent Volume: Volumes have normalized but remain elevated (~40M/d). This suggests the down move is broadly participated in.

3. Candlestick Patterns

• July 23-29: Multiple long-bodied red candles with small lower wicks signal intense selling with little pushback. Aug 1 saw a narrow-range day with a modest lower wick, hinting at a short-term pause but not a reversal.
• No confirmed reversal candle or bullish engulfing in the last 5 days.

4. Support & Resistance

• Immediate Support: $15.00 (tested Aug 1 Intraday low $15.01, held, but close barely above that). A key psychological and round-number level.
• Next Support Levels: $14.30 (June 20 low), $13.70 (early June), then $12.30 (May lows).
• Immediate Resistance: $16.00 (July 31 close; previous breakdown zone), then $16.60-17.00 (dense trading zone for much of July).

5. Moving Averages (Estimate from price action)

• 20-Day SMA: Likely sloping down, currently around $16.8-$17, now above price -- acts as resistance.
• 50-Day SMA: Flat to down, intersection region of $16-$17.5, also resistance.
• Price is trading below both important moving averages – the classic technical definition of a downtrend.

6. Short-Term (Hourly/Intraday) Analysis

• Latest Hourly Print (Aug 1, after-hours):
  • Price oscillating in a tight range ($15.40–$15.54), with repeated rejections at $15.54–$15.51. This confirms $15.50 is now resistance even at micro timeframe.
  • No volume in after-hours, but last regular-hours bar closed right at $15.50 (the low for July 31).

7. Volatility Analysis (ATR Proxy)

• Average daily true range (ATR) over the last month, by visual estimate, is ~1.5–2.5 dollars (range from $19.5 to $17.1 to $15.5).
  • Wide trading ranges persist, suggesting volatility remains elevated and downward momentum could accelerate on further breaks.

8. RSI/Momentum (Estimate From Price Action)

• Daily RSI (Estimated): With multi-day declines and price near 1-month lows, daily RSI likely hovering low-mid 30s, approaching oversold but not extreme. However, during strong downtrends, RSI can remain low for an extended period.
• Momentum: No divergence evident; price and momentum falling in tandem.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (Calculated from $11.3 to $21.5 Move)

• 0.382 Retracement: ~$17.7 – broken.
• 0.5 Retracement: ~$16.4 – broken.
• 0.618 Retracement: ~$15.0 – currently being tested. A decisive close below $15.0 implies a move to deeper retracement levels ($14.0, $13.0).

10. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Double Top/Distribution: Price structure from $19.5 to $21.5 (July 11-14) to $19.2 (July 16-18) and now $15.5 resembles a distribution top, consistent with further downside likelihood.
• No visible base formation or constructive bottoming pattern as of August 1.

11. Gaps

• Down Gaps: Notable gap-down from $19.8 (July 17) to $18.8 (July 21); recent price action failed to close, which validates resistance.

12. Fundamental Narrative (Secondary)

• If the negative momentum coincides with sector risk (crypto, technology), MARA is vulnerable to further impulsive declines.

13. Comparative Relative Strength

• Recent underperformance vs. prior market average ranges ($19–$21.5) signals relative weakness.

14. Sentiment & Market Psychology

• Market is presently in “Fear” mode: rapid selling, failed bounces, little sign of panic bottom. No evidence of strong institutional support at current levels.

15. Synthesis & Probable Scenarios

• Given the break of $16, sequential lower highs/lows, lack of reversal candles, and the test of $15.0 (critical fib/retracement level), the odds favor further downside. Any bounce toward resistance ($15.80–$16.00) likely to be met with new sellers given the overhead supply. Volatility remains high, and the stock’s history shows sharp one-day losses.

16. Risk Management/Trade Structure

• Rallies to $15.60–$15.70 represent optimal shorting spots with tight stop above $16.05. First take-profit at $14.30 (previous support), extended target $13.80 if downside momentum accelerates.

In summary: All major technical tools—trend, momentum, volume, price structure, and support/resistance—converge on a bearish scenario. The lack of buyer response at repeated retests of multi-month lows ($15.00–$15.50) means a test and break of support is the path of least resistance in the next 24 hours.

---

Prediction:

• MARA will likely break under $15.0 and trend towards $14.30–$13.80 over the next 24 hours. Very low probability of a sustainable bounce above $16 unless massive positive catalyst emerges.