MDB’s post-earnings high-tight flag: buy the dip toward 312 for a push to 322

Comprehensive multi-method technical read on MDB (MongoDB) after the earnings re-rating

Executive summary

• MDB just executed a regime-shifting breakaway gap on 27 Aug, followed by a strong trend day on 28 Aug and a constructive consolidation day on 29 Aug. Volume has decelerated session by session while price holds near highs, a textbook sign of bullish digestion rather than distribution.
• The 29 Aug session produced a balanced candle with a modest pullback to the 50 percent retracement of the 27–28 Aug micro swing before closing near the daily pivot. This positions MDB for a buy-the-dip entry into support with a probabilistic push toward the recent range highs around 321–322 in the next session.
• Over the next 24 hours of trading, base case is a dip into 311–309 that gets bought, followed by a test of 318 and a retest of 321–322. Secondary case is an immediate opening drive through 318 toward 322–325. Bear case sees a deeper probe toward 305–302 but buyers likely defend above the round 300 and the gap structure.

Context and regime shift

• Pre-gap, MDB traded in the 200–230 channel with a series of lower swing highs into 26 Aug. The 27 Aug open at 282.05 gapped above months of supply in one print, initiating a new momentum regime.
• 27 Aug: O 282.05, H 297.26, L 275.66, C 295.70 on 20.7M shares — breakaway gap with massive volume confirms institutional accumulation and a repricing event consistent with earnings or guide.
• 28 Aug: O 299.49, H 321.57, L 297.00, C 318.10 on 10.7M — continuation day, closes strong and above the psychological 300.
• 29 Aug: O 314.42, H 321.92, L 308.39, C 315.61 on 5.68M — range compression with declining volume, suggests consolidation rather than reversal.

Price action and structure

• Higher highs and higher lows across the post-gap sequence: 295.7 close to 318.1 close to 315.6 close while maintaining a series of defended lows, notably 308.4.
• The 29 Aug candle is a balanced, slightly bearish doji/spinning top within an established up-swing, often preceding continuation after a brief pause.
• Key swing levels mapped from the last three sessions:
  • Resistance: 321.92 recent high, with supply attempts near 321–322 on both 28 and 29 Aug
  • Intermediate resistance: 318.10 prior close
  • Support: 315.3 pivot (see Pivot Points), 311.9 fib 38.2 of micro swing, 308.4 daily S1 and 50 percent micro retrace
  • Deeper support: 305.7 fib 61.8 of micro swing, 302.0 S2, 300.0 round number, 297.0 prior day low and breakout zone

Classical pivot points (calculated from 29 Aug OHLC)

• Pivot P = (H + L + C) / 3 = 315.3067
• R1 = 322.2234, R2 = 328.8367, R3 = 335.7534
• S1 = 308.6934, S2 = 301.7767, S3 = 295.1601 Interpretation: 29 Aug closed essentially on the pivot. S1 at 308.7 and R1 at 322.2 neatly frame a buy-the-dip toward S1 with profit-taking into R1. R2 aligns with an extension target if momentum surges.

Fibonacci mapping

• Micro swing 27–29 Aug: low 295.70 to high 321.92
  • 38.2 percent retrace: 321.92 − 0.382 × 26.22 ≈ 311.91
  • 50.0 percent retrace: ≈ 308.81
  • 61.8 percent retrace: ≈ 305.72 Observation: 29 Aug low at 308.39 tagged the 50 percent retracement and held. The 38.2 at 311.9 is a common shallow pullback entry in momentum regimes.

Gap and window analysis

• Rising window from 26 Aug close 214.34 to 27 Aug low 275.66 creates a massive gap that will not be filled lightly; this acts as a powerful support vacuum with the upper area 297–300 forming a shelf. The second day’s open at ~299 and multiple intraday defenses above 297 reinforce that shelf.
• With price now consolidating well above the gap’s top, the structure is a classic gap-and-go with a bull flag forming just under fresh highs.

Volume and participation

• 27 Aug volume 20.7M, 28 Aug 10.7M, 29 Aug 5.7M. The decreasing sequence while price holds near highs is consistent with supply absorption and resting period, not active distribution.
• Expect a fresh burst of volume when price challenges the 321–322 lid; a breakout above that area on rising volume would likely target 328–336 quickly due to the thin overhead profile.

Moving averages and trend filters (qualitative estimates)

• With the two-day sprint of ~10 percent after a ~38 percent gap, fast EMAs (5–10 day) are steeply rising but still below price, likely in the 300–305 area; the 20-day likely resides sub-260 and catching up. This creates stacked, rising MAs below price — a bullish configuration with room for further upside before mean-reversion pressures dominate.
• On intraday frames, a rising 20–50 period EMA band likely pinches around 312–315, offering intraday dip support.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI 14 on the daily is likely elevated in the mid-to-high 70s after back-to-back strong sessions. In momentum regimes, overbought remains overbought; short-term pullbacks to reset RSI are typically buyable. The 29 Aug consolidation likely relieved the most extreme intraday readings without breaking structure.
• Stochastics should be embedded in the upper band; a brief stochastic reset into 40–60 on intraday frames aligns with the preferred dip-buy window near 312–309.
• MACD daily is strongly positive with an expanding histogram; 29 Aug histogram contraction reflects consolidation, not reversal.

Bollinger Bands

• With the recent expansion, price is riding the upper daily band. The mid-band (20-day MA) is far below price, so a mean-reversion to the 20-day is unlikely in the immediate 24-hour window absent a shock. Expect band walk behavior to resume upon a 321–322 breakout or a tight flag continuation.

Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Price well above a rising conversion line (Tenkan) and baseline (Kijun), cloud flipped bullish with a large span. Chikou span has clear skies above price action. All components suggest trend continuation; a Kijun catch-up would likely occur near or slightly above 300 if deeper pullback develops, but not the base case in 24 hours.

Anchored VWAP and volume shelves

• Anchored VWAP from the 27 Aug gap day likely sits around the low 310s to mid 314s given the intraday distribution and subsequent prints. Friday’s close flirted with that zone. Expect buyers to defend an anchored VWAP retest near 312–314. A flush below AVWAP into 309–310 should attract responsive buying.

Average True Range and expected range

• Recent true ranges: 21.6 (27 Aug), 24.6 (28 Aug), 13.5 (29 Aug). A short-term ATR in the 14–16 range is reasonable.
• Expected next-session range base case: 309–325, with a balanced-to-bullish skew.

Candlestick micro read

• 29 Aug produced a balanced candle with both tails and close near the midpoint. In the context of a strong up-leg, this often functions as a rest bar. Failure to break Friday’s low on the next session frequently resolves higher toward the prior high band.

Support and resistance map for the next 24 hours

• Immediate resistance: 318.1 prior close, then 321.9–322.2 band (recent highs and R1). Above it, 328.8 R2 and 335.8 R3.
• Immediate support: 315.3 daily pivot, 311.9 fib 38.2, 308.7 S1 and 50 percent, 305.7 fib 61.8. Structural support: 302–300 shelf, 297 breakout pivot.

Pattern diagnostics

• High-tight flag variant: two-bar surge followed by a one-day pause underneath highs with declining volume. Probability favors upside continuation provided the lower flag boundary (around 308–309) is respected.
• Three-bar play setup: expansion bar (27–28 combined impulse), inside-to-balanced bar (29), trigger through 29 Aug high (321.92) confirms continuation.

Scenario analysis and probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish continuation after shallow dip: 55 percent. Early probe into 312–309, defended, then push to 318 and test 322; modest close in 320–323.
• Immediate breakout: 25 percent. Strong open, quick reclaim of 318 and decisive push through 322, extension into 325–329 on increased volume.
• Deeper pullback: 20 percent. Loss of 308.4 opens 305.7–302.0; buyers defend above 300, producing a lower close but maintaining the broader uptrend.

Risk management and trade construction

• Preferred entry: buy-the-dip limit into 311.9–310.0 (fib 38.2 to near 50 percent), which aligns with anchored VWAP support band and daily S1 zone.
• Stop reference for risk: below 305.5–305.7 (fib 61.8) or a hard fail below 300 if wanting a wider swing stop. For a tactical 24-hour trade, 305.5 is adequate.
• Profit target: first target 322.2 (R1 and recent resistance), second target if momentum accelerates 328.8 (R2). For a one-leg plan, taking profits near 322 is optimal given the repeated supply tests at 321–322.
• Reward-to-risk illustration: entry 311.9, stop 305.5, target 322.2. Risk ≈ 6.4, reward ≈ 10.3, R:R ≈ 1.6. Tighten stop below 308.2 after entry to lift R:R above 2 once 315 is reclaimed.

Complementary intraday triggers

• Confirmation on reclaim of 315.3 pivot after a dip improves odds that buyers have control. Additional confidence on a 30–60 minute close above 318 prior close.
• Breakout alternative: if no dip materializes, a momentum entry above 322.0–322.2 on volume expansion targets 325–329. This is secondary to the dip plan but valid.

Catalyst and narrative overlay

• The magnitude and character of the gap imply a fundamental re-rating. Unless a new negative headline appears, the path of least resistance in the short term is higher, with pullbacks being opportunities rather than trend changes.

24-hour price path expectation

• Anticipated session low: 309–311
• Anticipated session high: 322–326
• Likely close: 320–323 range, modest green day if S1 holds on the early dip

Bottom line

• MDB displays a classic post-earnings momentum consolidation just under resistance, supported by multiple toolkits: pivots, fibs, AVWAP, volume contraction, and a healthy flag. The highest-odds tactical play for the next session is to buy a pullback toward 311.9 with a target into 322.2.

Decision: Buy the dip into 311.9, targeting 322.2 in the next 24 hours. Consider a protective stop around 305.5 to manage risk.