Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of MFH (Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc.)

1. Chart Overview & Recent Price Action

• Current Price: $2.71 (as of 2025-07-25, 21:00 UTC)
• The last two trading days have shown extreme volatility: a spectacular collapse from $5.15 to $2.20 on 2025-07-21, then a further fall and rebound, with 2025-07-24 seeing a low of $1.81 and a high blast to $3.61, closing at $3.07, followed by high-volume whip-saw action.
• Since the collapse, there has been an explosive increase in trading volume, e.g., 13.5M shares on 2025-07-24, then 1.17M on 2025-07-25, both far above the prior $100–300k$ share range.

2. Trend & Momentum

• On the Daily Chart, the longer-term trend is sharply down, accelerating in July, with a historic crash from $5.99 on 7/18 to $2.20 only three days later.
• The short-term (intraday) trend from 7/24 through 7/25 shows initial panic selling ($1.81 low) followed by intense buying up to $3.60, then repeated large intraday swings ($2.45–2.95 range recurring throughout 7/25).
• 14-Day RSI dropped below 20 post-crash, then rebounded to around mid-30s/40s due to the two-day bounce. This is commonly indicative of extreme oversold and subsequent violent mean-reversion.

3. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: The highest daily volumes ever recorded coincide with the price crash and dead-cat bounce; this signals panic liquidation, forced margin selling, possible stop-hunt, and then new speculative buyers entering.
• Post-crash high volumes after a sharp reversal are typical of bottoming processes, but these can also precede further heavy selling if a capitulation bounce fails.

4. Support and Resistance

• Major Resistance: $3.60–$3.95 (intraday spikes on 7/24 and failed rally stabs on 7/25)
• Immediate Support: $2.40–$2.55 (high-volume bulge and multi-hour basing zone)
• Key Pivot Zone: $2.60–$2.80: Seen as the closing range and multiple bounce/rejection spot for both up and down moves during 7/25. Especially, $2.62 and $2.57 intraday closes suggest this is the high-agreement range.

5. Candlestick Patterns

• 7/24: Massive long lower wick, huge reversal green candle—potential bullish hammer or reversal.
• 7/25: Intra-day alternating doji and long-range candles, with close ($2.71$) near the lower half of the day’s range, signaling indecision and lack of immediate follow-through.

6. Moving Averages

• 10/20/50-day SMAs: All projecting sharply downward ($4.50–$3.70) and nowhere near current price, indicating persistent technical weakness and significant overhang for any rebound.
• No golden cross or bullish crossovers: Downward-sloping averages confirm a strongly bearish bias.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• Using $5.15 high (7/18) and $1.81 low (7/24):
  • 23.6% retracement: ~$2.77
  • 38.2% retracement: ~$3.23
  • 50% retracement: ~$3.48
• The current price ($2.71) is just below the 23.6% retracement, and failed to hold gains above that level—suggesting weak bounce attempt.

8. Bollinger Bands

• Recent price action is hugging the lower band after a major expansion post-crash. Volatility is high, but price repeatedly fails at the Bollinger mid-line ($2.90–$3.00), indicating selling pressure remains dominant on rallies.

9. MACD & Momentum Oscillators

• MACD: Negative and only just beginning to flatten, but not yet crossing up, indicating no convincing upward momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Exploded out of oversold but already rolling over, indicating dead-cat bounce may be fading.

10. Orderflow/Market Depth

• Recurring sharp moves on modest volumes through the day indicate predatory, strategic trading, likely algo-driven.
• Several intraday rejections near $2.85–$2.90; high volume stacks there point to aggressive short-sellers re-establishing positions.

11. Event/News Driven Dynamics

• The extraordinary volatility and collapse are almost certainly event-driven (earnings, regulatory, or financing catalyst). Absent further news, the bounce is likely to be saturated with opportunistic traders, not long-term investors.

12. Psychological & Sentiment Factors

• This week’s action is a classic pump-and-dump/post-capitulation bounce dynamic. The crowd is nervous and heavily whipsawed—the path of least resistance is likely further weakness unless a high-volume breakout occurs.

13. Pattern Recognition & Analogues

• The pattern repeating through 7/24–25 is a textbook dead-cat bounce: Epic collapse, panic flush, face-ripping squeeze, and then loss of upward momentum as sellers re-assume control around resistance.

14. Quantitative Bias & Statistical Edge

• Historically, such post-crash bounces fail within 48–72 hours over 60% of cases, especially if prior uptrend is totally destroyed and no fundamental news intervenes.

Conclusion: High Probability of Near-Term Downward Continuation

• Given all the above (trend, volume analysis, resistance, failed retracements, momentum stalling, selling pressure at each rally), the next 24 hours hold a much higher probability for another leg down or at least a retest of support ($2.55–$2.40). Any upside is likely limited, and risk/reward favors the short side.

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Composite Trading Decision: SELL (Short Position)

• Open Price: $2.70–$2.72 (current price ideal, or sell into any bounce toward $2.75)
• Take Profit/Close: $2.40 (nearest high-volume support and first logical bounce area)
• Stop-Loss: A tight stop above $2.90 (failure to break down and crossing above retracement = cut exposure)

Summary/Justification:

• Multiple technical systems (trend, volume, Fibs, MA, momentum, candlesticks) all point to a failed bounce and further downside.
• Absence of any bullish reversal or confirmation, while supply overhead remains extreme.

This setup provides the best profit opportunity by shorting at the $2.70–2.72 level for a move toward $2.40, with a risk cap near $2.90.

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Note: Volatility is extremely high. Size positions accordingly and monitor for any abnormal news flow. If liquidity dries up or a new catalyst emerges, be ready to cover quickly.