Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of NEGG (Newegg Commerce, Inc.)

1. Price Trend and Pattern Recognition

• Long-term Overview: The price was trading sideways-to-down from early February to late May, with significant drops in March–April (as low as $3.5). However, starting mid-May, high volume action and dramatic price surges occurred, suggesting a major change in market sentiment.
• Key Breakouts: On June 5, NEGG exploded from ~$6.3 to over $13.2 intraday, closing at $10.53 on record volume (10.65 million shares)—far above average daily volume. This kind of move typically signals either a short squeeze or a dramatic influx of speculative buying.
• June 6: Price opened at $10.23 and closed at $10.4, with a high of $12 and a low of $9.57. Relative stability after such a massive rally suggests market digestion and a potential consolidation phase.
• Pattern Identified: Analyzing the rapid move and subsequent pause, this resembles a classic 'blowoff top' or exhaustion bar rather than a sustainable uptrend. However, the presence of elevated volume on the up day and the holding of gains into the following day suggests there is still speculative energy in the market.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume/Price Confirmation: The most significant rallies (June 5) occurred with massive volume spikes, confirming the move. On June 6, while volume dropped, it remained many multiples above previous daily averages, indicating ongoing active participation and high volatility.
• Volume Patterns: The massive volume spike usually indicates a near-term top. When coupled with a doji or small real-body candle (like June 6), it often precedes a pullback, unless followed by a strong up-day.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $12 (June 6 high) and $13.29 (June 5 high) are significant resistance levels.
• Immediate Support: $9.57 (June 6 low). If this fails, next strong support is in the $6.25–$6.30 area (pre-breakout).

4. Fibonacci Retracement

• Swing Low: $4.84 (June 2 low)
• Swing High: $13.29 (June 5 high)
• 38.2% retracement: ~$10
• 50% retracement: ~$9.07
• 61.8% retracement: ~$8.13
• Given the current price is $10.4 (around 38% retrace), this is a classic area for short-term trend digestion and high potential for sharp moves in either direction.

5. Relative Strength Index (RSI) & Oscillator Analysis

• Estimating RSI: Given the explosive move, RSI is in overbought territory (typically > 80 after these surges). That historically precedes sharp corrections or sideways chop as overbought conditions resolve.
• MACD analysis: MACD would show a very large bullish crossover but probably an early sign of losing momentum after such an outsized move, especially as the price stalls after the parabolic run.

6. Gap and Exhaustion Analysis

• Gap Analysis: June 5 price gapped up more than 100% over prior day close. This type of gap, especially coupled with a huge wick and consolidation next day, often acts as an exhaustion gap.
• Exhaustion Move: Such gaps strongly favor short-term pullbacks as most of the liquidity chases in at late stages.

7. Short-Term Momentum & Order Flow

• Price held above key 38% Fib retracement, but there’s evidence of seller absorption near $10.4–$10.5 region.
• The candle structure from June 6 (wicky, small body) signals indecision—a typical harbinger of trend reversal or at least a sharp retrace.

8. Behavioral and Sentiment Analysis

• Speculative FOMO: The scale and violence of the move almost certainly includes large participation by momentum traders and short-coverers. This typically ends with a swift mean-reversion move.
• Volume Distribution: The bulk of volume from June 5–6 was transacted above $10, trapping many late-to-the-party buyers. Such traps often trigger abrupt selling as positions unwind.

9. Probability Analysis for the Next 24 Hours

• Primary scenario: Given the mean-reversion tendency after blowoff tops, statistical edge favors a sharp downward correction to at least the 50% Fibonacci retrace level ($9.07), with risk of overshooting to $8.1 (61.8%) depending on intraday panic.
• Counter scenario: There is a possibility of one more spike attempt, but odds are lower with waning volume and no new highs on June 6.

10. Confluence and Trading Plan

• Virtually all technical signals (volume, candle structure, RSI, Fibonacci, exhaustion) point to a near-term correction and increased probability of a downward move.
• Low probability for further upside absent another volume spike.

Conclusion: Initiate Short Position (Sell) near $10.40–10.50; Target $9.10 for next 24 hours, with potential for further test to $8 if selloff accelerates.