Nutanix, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

NTNX: Sell the Rip Into R1 — Bear Flag Coil Likely Slips Toward 46s Next Session

Executive Summary

Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bearish to range-bound with downside skew. Expect a drift toward 46.4–46.1 if 47.10 breaks; upside likely capped near 47.8–48.2.
Trade plan: Short near resistance (sell the rip). Optimal entry around classic pivot R1/ intraday supply at 47.7–47.8. First target near S2 46.45; secondary extension 46.0.
Key invalidation zone: Sustained acceptance above 48.2–48.6 (R2/R3 cluster and prior day’s upper wick) would neutralize the short thesis.

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis

Primary trend: Down. NTNX topped near 82 in mid-September, rolled into a sequence of lower highs/lows through October/November.
Breakaway gap: 2025-11-26 gapped from 59.05/58.77 area to an open of 51.28 and closed 48.34 on 25.97M shares (a >5x volume spike). That’s a classic breakaway gap initiating a new, lower value area. Such gaps typically do not fill quickly; they often precede multi-week basing or further downside.
Post-gap behavior: Since 11/26, price compressed into a tight rectangle 46.52–48.72 with closes clustering ~47.2–47.5. That is a low-volatility pause after a momentum break, often a bear flag/rectangle that resolves in the direction of the prior move unless there’s evidence of accumulation. Evidence of aggressive dip-buying is limited (muted retracement, capped bounces).

Immediate resistance: 47.70–47.90 (12/09 intraday highs 47.78; classic pivot R1 47.70; supply repeatedly sold).
Next resistance: 48.17–48.56 (R2 48.17; R3 48.56; 12/08 high 48.72 just above R3). Any acceptance above 48.6 would start to neutralize near-term bearishness.
Immediate support: 47.10–46.90 (prior session low 46.91; S1 46.84). A decisive break turns the path to S2.
Next supports: 46.44 (S2), 46.12 (12/03 low), 45.97 (S3). Below 46.1 opens a gap window toward 45.5–45.0.

PP = 47.305
R1 = 47.700; R2 = 48.170; R3 = 48.565
S1 = 46.835; S2 = 46.440; S3 = 45.970 Interpretation: Price is oscillating around PP (47.31). R1 has acted as a sell zone; S1 has been probed multiple times. The R1-to-S2 drift aligns with a short-on-strength approach.

Short MAs (5/10/20): All sloping down with price below them after the 11/26 gap. The 20-D SMA is still materially above price given pre-gap levels, keeping downward pressure. Typical bearish alignment (price < 5 < 10 < 20).
50-D and 200-D: Likely well above (mid-60s to 70s+), confirming higher-timeframe downtrend and overhead supply. Implication: MA stack resistance overhead; mean reversion pull-ups meet sellers.

RSI(14) daily: Estimated mid-to-high 30s to low 40s. After the capitulation gap, RSI failed to regain 50, which is classic bearish range behavior (RSI ceiling 50–60 in downtrends).
Stochastics: Hovering mid-zone; no strong bullish crossover at an extreme. This supports range with bearish skew rather than immediate reversal.
MACD: Negative; histogram has contracted from extreme negative but is flatlining below zero. That typical “bearish drift” condition often precedes a further push lower unless price can regain the signal line with momentum. Conclusion: Momentum is not confirming a sustainable bounce; bears retain control, but without strong acceleration (drip lower probable).

ATR(5/14): Elevated on the gap, now compressing toward ~0.8–1.1/day, consistent with the observed 46.9–47.8 range.
Bollinger Bands (20,2): After the gap, bands were wide; now contracting as price coils near the lower band-midline area. The squeeze within a downtrend tends to resolve in the direction of the prior move, favoring a breakdown unless a strong impulse reclaims the mid-band decisively.

Gap day volume (25.97M) dwarfs subsequent sessions; the highest volume node post-gap is forming around 47.2–47.6 (value area). Repeated failure to auction above 47.8–48.2 suggests supply/overhead inventory.
OBV (conceptually) has not confirmed accumulation; up days lack strong relative volume versus down/reactive selling into strength. Takeaway: Volume behavior fits a post-break distribution rather than committed accumulation.

Round-trip action: Early attempt to 47.78 sold, late-day slip to 47.00–47.23 into the close. That late-day supply is often informative for next open’s tone (sellers active on minor rallies).
Intraday VWAP (approx): Clustered 47.45–47.55 during U.S. session; repeated reversion below VWAP indicates sellers faded strength. Using VWAP as dynamic resistance favors short entries near 47.5–47.7.

Anchored VWAP from breakaway gap (11/26 open) would sit materially above spot (likely ~49–50 given subsequent prints), acting as a gravity well/resistance on any bounce. Price acceptance remains below that, consistent with a bear regime.

From 11/25 high 59.05 to 11/26 low 47.39:
- 38.2% = ~51.73
- 50% = ~53.22
- 61.8% = ~54.71
Post-gap rebound didn’t reach even the 23.6% zone; that’s weak follow-through from dip buyers. Until at least 50% retrace zones are attempted, the move remains unresolved bearish.

Price is below the cloud; future Kumo likely red; Tenkan below Kijun with both above price. Chikou below price-cloud structure. This is the classic bearish alignment.

Elliott: Impulse down into the gap likely a wave 3 climax; current tight rectangle is a wave 4 flat/triangle-like consolidation; a modest wave 5 to marginal new lows (46.1–45.5) would complete the structure before a larger-degree corrective bounce.
Wyckoff: Phase B/C within a post-break range; 12/08 upper wick near 48.7 resembles an upthrust in a micro-range, followed by a sign of weakness (SOW) back into the middle/lower range on 12/09. Expect a test of support (spring attempt). If no quick reclaim, markdown toward 46.4/46.0.

Expected daily range: ~0.9–1.1 based on recent ATR and intraday ranges.
Scenario probabilities (next 24h):
- Base case (50–55%): Range to downside drift. Early probe to 47.6–47.8 meets supply; fade toward 46.8; a break of 46.8 targets 46.4 (S2).
- Bear extension (20–25%): Failure at open followed by decisive break of 46.4, extension to 46.1, tail possibly to 45.9 (S3) before closing back near 46.3–46.5.
- Bull surprise (20–25%): Quick reclaim of 47.8, squeeze to 48.2 (R2). Needs acceptance above 48.2–48.6 to invalidate the short. Without that acceptance, sellers likely re-engage.

The 11/26 gap suggests an event (earnings/guidance/litigation). Event-driven gaps often take time to repair; absent new positive catalysts, the path of least resistance remains down/sideways.
Liquidity: Post-gap volumes normalized but remain healthy; spreads tight enough for tactical entries around pivots.

Confluence short zone: 47.7–47.9 (R1 + intraday VWAP/supply + repeated rejection).
Target: 46.4 (S2) within 24h is realistic; stretch to 46.0 if momentum accelerates.
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 48.2–48.6 (R2/R3 and prior supply shelf) would negate the short edge.

24-Hour Price Prediction

Likely range: 45.9–48.2
Bias: Sell strength; expect late-day/next-session testing of 46.4 with risk of an undercut toward 46.0 before stabilizing.

Decision Rationale

Multiple methods (trend, pivots, bands, anchored VWAP, momentum, Wyckoff) align bearish.
Weak retracement post gap + supply overhead = favorable short into strength.
Risk/Reward: Short 47.7 to 46.4 offers ~1.3 points potential versus ~0.6–0.9 risk to 48.3–48.6 (prior wick/R2–R3), an acceptable profile for a 24h tactical trade.