NVDA at a Key Fibonacci Support: Tactical 24h Rebound Setup from 184–185 Toward 189

Market snapshot (NVDA)

• Current price: 185.04
• Last daily close (2026-01-08): 185.04 (close on the lows vs intraday high 189.55)
• Regime: Post-swing pullback from late-Oct highs (212) into a broad range since mid-November.

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1) Multi-timeframe structure (Price Action / Market Structure)

Daily trend context

• Major swing high: ~212.19 (2025-10-29).
• Major swing low (capitulation leg): ~169.55 (2025-11-25).
• Since that washout, price has been range-bound with a mild upward bias into late December.

Recent structure (last ~3 weeks)

• Rally: 170.94 (12/17) → 192.93 (01/02) = strong impulse.
• Pullback: 192.93 → 183.71 (01/08 low) = corrective retracement.
• Character of the pullback: multiple down days, but not a clean breakdown below the December base; suggests mean-reverting pullback rather than a new downtrend—unless 183.5–182.3 breaks decisively.

Key read: Price is pulling back into a well-traded support zone (mid-180s / low-180s). The next 24h likely depends on whether 183.7–184.2 holds.

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2) Support / Resistance mapping (Horizontal + swing levels)

Support

• S1: 183.70–184.20 (01/08 intraday low zone + late-day consolidation)
• S2: 182.35–183.00 (12/22 low 182.35; multiple closes around 183–184 region)
• S3: 180.90–181.50 (12/11 close 180.93, 12/02 close 181.46)
• S4: 176.5–177.8 (late Nov / early Dec pivots)

Resistance

• R1: 188.20–189.30 (12/29 close 188.22; 12/23 high 189.33; 01/07 close 189.11)
• R2: 190.50–193.00 (12/26 close 190.53; 01/02 high 192.93)
• R3: 200–203 (late Oct / early Nov pivot zone)

Immediate trading box: 183.7–189.3.

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3) Candlestick / bar-quality signals

Daily candle (01/08)

• Open 189.11, High 189.55, Low 183.71, Close 185.04.
• This is a bearish day with a long lower wick relative to the close (buyers appeared under ~185 and especially near ~184).
• Not a classic hammer (close is not near high), but it does show demand below 185.

Intraday (hourly) behavior (01/08)

• Sharp selloff from ~189 to ~186 (14:30 bar) then drift to 184–185 with stabilization.
• Late session prints show base-building around 184.1–185.2.

Interpretation: Selling pressure was strong early, then exhaustion + absorption appeared near 184–185.

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4) Moving averages (trend/mean reversion inference)

(Computed qualitatively from the sequence; exact MA values not provided, but inference is robust given price clustering.)

• Price from mid-Dec to early-Jan traded mostly ~175–193, with many closes around 180–189.
• The 20-day MA is likely near the mid/high-180s; current price 185 is plausibly below/near it → short-term bearish/neutral.
• The 50-day MA likely sits in the low/mid-180s after the Nov drop → current price likely near it.

Signal: Price is not extended; it’s reverting toward a central tendency zone → favors bounce potential rather than immediate continuation down, provided support holds.

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5) Momentum indicators (RSI/MACD-style reasoning)

RSI (behavioral estimate)

• Rally into 01/02 then pullback into 01/08 typically drags RSI from ~60s toward ~45–50.
• No evidence of multi-week collapse; rather a pullback after an impulse.

MACD (logic)

• The 12/17→01/02 impulse likely created a positive MACD.
• The last 4–5 sessions have cooled momentum; MACD histogram likely contracting toward zero.

Momentum takeaway: Cooling but not broken—consistent with a 24h sideways-to-up scenario off support.

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6) Volatility / ATR and expected 24h range

Using recent daily ranges:

• 01/08 range: 189.55–183.71 = 5.84
• 01/05 range: 193.63–186.15 = 7.48
• 01/06 range: 192.17–186.82 = 5.35
• Typical recent range: ~5–7.5 points.

24h expectation: about ±3 to ±4 from open in normal conditions; full-day envelope ~183 to ~190 is plausible.

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7) Volume / participation cues

• 01/08 daily volume ~172M (solid).
• Prior heavy volume during the early-Jan distribution days (01/05 ~183M, 01/06 ~176M).
• Heavy volume on down days can be distribution, but given price is returning to a known support area, it can also represent capitulation into support.

Bias: Neutral-to-slightly bullish for a reflex bounce, but must respect the 182–183 shelf.

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8) Fibonacci retracement (swing-based)

Take swing L=170.94 (12/17) to H=192.93 (01/02):

• Range = 21.99
• 38.2% retrace: 192.93 - 0.382*21.99 ≈ 184.53
• 50% retrace: 192.93 - 0.5*21.99 ≈ 181.94
• 61.8% retrace: 192.93 - 0.618*21.99 ≈ 179.35

Current price 185.04 is sitting right around the 38.2% retracement (≈184.5) — a common bounce level in an ongoing upswing.

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9) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): Support holds → mean reversion bounce

• Holding above 184.5 / 183.7 (Fib 38.2 + intraday low) suggests buyers defend.
• Likely path: grind up toward 188–189 (R1), potentially tag 190 if broad market is supportive.

Bear case: Breakdown below support shelf

• If price loses 183.7 and especially 182.3, the move likely extends toward 181 then 179–180 (Fib 50–61.8 zone).

Bull case: Strong reclaim of 189.3

• Reclaim and acceptance above 189.3 opens 190.5–193 retest quickly.

My 24h directional call: slightly bullish / rebound attempt as long as 183.7–184.5 holds.

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Trade plan (24h tactical)

Decision: Buy (Long position)

Rationale: Price is at a confluence of support + 38.2% retracement (~184.5) after a sharp selloff that showed late stabilization. Risk is definable just below 183.7/182.3.

Optimal open (limit buy)

• Open Price: 184.60
  • Rationale: near Fib 38.2 (~184.53) and within the observed stabilization band; better expectancy than chasing 185+.

Profit target (take profit)

• Close Price: 189.20
  • Rationale: tests the first major resistance band 188.2–189.3 where supply has repeatedly appeared.

(Risk note for execution discipline: a practical invalidation area is below ~182.30 on a closing/acceptance basis, but you didn’t request a stop.)