NVDA Loses a Key Pivot: Sell the $224.70 Rebound for a $221.65 Retest

NVDA 24-hour technical outlook

Data integrity and timeframe. The supplied daily series ends with a regular-session close of $223.67 on 9 Sep, which is effectively aligned with the stated current price of $223.67. The final hourly print near $223.72 should be treated as the operative reference; the isolated $226.25 hourly spike late in the session was immediately rejected and is therefore better classified as intraday resistance than as a sustained breakout.

1. Price action and market structure

NVDA staged a strong recovery from the $208.48 low on 24 Aug to the $234.76 high on 4 Sep. That advance is now undergoing a correction:

• 4 Sep: high at $234.76, close $230.36.
• 8 Sep: wide bearish session, closing $225.73 after trading from $233.71 to $224.85.
• 9 Sep: another bearish session, opening $225.27, reaching only $226.18, and closing near the day low at $223.67.

Two consecutive lower closes after rejection from $234.76 establish short-term downside momentum. The 9 Sep candle has a small body near the low of its range, but it failed to regain $225-$226 after repeated attempts. That behavior reflects overhead supply rather than confirmed demand.

The broader multi-week structure remains constructive because the July low near $190 has not been threatened. However, the next 24-hour trade is governed by the short-term pullback, not the larger recovery trend.

2. Moving-average and momentum assessment

Using the latest daily closes:

• Approximate 5-day average: $227.3. Price at $223.67 is below it, indicating immediate downside momentum.
• Approximate 10-day average: $224-$225. Price is slightly below this zone, converting it into near-term resistance.
• Approximate 20-day average: $220.8. Price remains above the medium-term mean, leaving room for a mean-reversion decline before the wider uptrend would be materially damaged.

This alignment is bearish for the immediate horizon: price is below fast averages but still above the 20-day mean. That setup commonly produces a test of the 20-day average, especially after a failed push above the recent high.

A 14-session RSI estimate is in the neutral-to-moderately-positive area rather than deeply oversold. Consequently, momentum is weak enough to permit additional downside, while not yet stretched enough to make a sharp relief rally the higher-probability outcome. MACD-style interpretation is similarly cautionary: the August recovery was positive, but the last two sessions imply a contracting momentum spread and declining short-term impulse.

3. Fibonacci and support/resistance map

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $208.48 to $234.76:

• 23.6% retracement: $228.56 — already lost.
• 38.2% retracement: $224.72 — key pivot; the close below it is bearish.
• 50.0% retracement: $221.62 — primary downside objective.
• 61.8% retracement: $218.52 — deeper support if selling accelerates.

The close at $223.67 is below the $224.72 Fibonacci pivot. A rebound toward $224.70-$225.40 would likely encounter sellers because this area combines the lost Fibonacci level, the 10-day average region, and repeated intraday trading congestion.

Key levels:

• Immediate resistance: $224.70-$225.40.
• Stronger resistance / bearish invalidation area: $226.18-$226.30; above this, $228.56.
• Initial support: $223.46, the 9 Sep low.
• Primary support / target: $221.62-$221.70.
• Secondary support: $220.80, the approximate 20-day average.
• Deeper support: $218.50-$219.00.

4. Candlestick, intraday, and volume evidence

The 9 Sep daily candle closed close to its low ($223.46 low versus $223.67 close), a bearish end-of-session signal. Intraday trading showed an early decline, only shallow rebounds, and a late rejection after a brief move toward $226.25. The inability to hold that late spike reinforces $225-$226 as supply.

Daily volume of roughly 79.2 million was below the high-volume sessions around the late-August earnings-driven move. Lower volume means the bearish continuation signal is not a high-conviction breakdown; it also means a countertrend bounce is possible. Nevertheless, price confirmation takes priority: the market is closing below short-term pivots, and the volume pattern does not negate the bearish structure.

5. Volatility and mean-reversion framework

The recent daily ranges are large, with multiple $5-$10 sessions. The current price remains above the approximate 20-day mean near $220.8 and below the short-term averages. This creates a favorable downside mean-reversion path toward $221.6-$220.8 without requiring a major trend reversal.

The proposed entry is deliberately above the current price: rather than chasing a short near the day low, a rebound into the broken $224.72 pivot offers a better reward-to-risk location. If price cannot rebound and instead breaks $223.46 decisively, momentum can still extend toward $221.6, but the risk-adjusted entry is less attractive than selling a bounce.

6. 24-hour forecast and trade conclusion

Base case for the next trading day: a failed rebound toward $224.70-$225.40 followed by renewed pressure toward $221.62. The bearish case is strengthened by the two-day reversal from $234.76, the loss of the $224.72 Fibonacci pivot, closes beneath fast averages, and rejection of the late-session $226.25 spike.

The short thesis is invalidated on sustained acceptance above approximately $226.30, particularly if price reclaims $228.56. That would indicate that the decline was only a brief shakeout rather than a corrective leg. This is a short-horizon technical view, not a guarantee; event risk, index/semiconductor-sector moves, and overnight news can override chart signals.

Execution plan: place a limit short near $224.70, where broken support is expected to act as resistance, and cover into the $221.65 Fibonacci/mean-reversion support area.