NVDA: Pop-and-Fade Setup Below VWAP — Short Into R1, Target S1 in the Next Session

Summary of signal: Short-term trend remains down with a sequence of lower highs/lows, price sitting under key moving averages and intraday VWAP. Today’s session produced a small green, lower-shadow candle near the lower Bollinger Band, but it closed below VWAP and 5/10/20-day means. Risk/reward over the next 24 hours favors a pop-and-fade short into the 175.5–176.6 supply zone, aiming for a gap-fill/first support retest near 171.9–171.0.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily trend: Lower highs since 12/09–12/10 (184.97 → 183.78 → 180.93 → 177.72) and lower lows (175.02 → 170.94). Structure is decisively bearish on the daily timeframe.
• Today (12/18): Open 174.53, high 176.15, low 171.82, close 174.14. Early strength to 176.15 faded; close beneath intraday VWAP suggests supply overhead remains active.
• Price location vs recent range: After the late-October breakout to ~212, price rolled over through November; December bounce failed under 186 and is now probing the lower-third of the 1–2 month range.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA5 ≈ 174.82; close 174.14 is slightly below—immediate momentum neutral-to-bearish.
• SMA10 ≈ 179.18; price is below—short-term trend down.
• SMA20 ≈ 179.66; price well below—mean overhang above price.
• Inference: With price under 5/10/20-day averages, rallies are sellable until a decisive reclamation.

3. RSI/Stochastics (momentum/mean reversion)

• RSI(14) ≈ 41–42 (estimated). This is weak, not oversold. It allows for further downside before any strong mean-reversion impulse. If RSI dips to mid-30s on a quick flush to 171–170, a stronger bounce becomes likely.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely mid-to-low; no strong buy trigger yet.

4. MACD (trend/momentum)

• MACD line < signal and < zero (inferred from persistent lower highs and closes below short MAs). Histogram likely negative but contracting modestly after today’s bounce. This points to bearish bias with some deceleration—ripe for a pop followed by renewed selling.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• 20-day middle band ≈ 179.7; lower band estimated near ~171.5–172.0 (given recent realized vol). Today’s low 171.82 kissed the lower band; close back inside is a classic mean-reversion tell, but because we closed under VWAP and MAs, the higher-probability path is a rally toward mid-range resistance that fades.
• Keltner (ATR-based) suggests room to 176–178 overhead and 170–169 below; price is inside channels, not in squeeze—volatility is elevated but not extreme.

6. ATR and expected range (volatility)

• ATR(14) daily estimated ≈ 4.8–5.2. A 1x ATR move from 174 implies 169–179 as a typical daily envelope. That frames targets: R1 ~176–178 and S1 ~171–170 are reachable in one session.

7. Volume, VWAP, and OBV (participation)

• Today’s volume ~174M vs recent average in the 160–190M band—healthy but below yesterday’s heavy sell volume (~223M). This is a classic “stabilization day” after a distribution day.
• Intraday VWAP (12/18) sits around ~174.9–175.1 (approx). Close 174.14 under VWAP = sellers controlled the latter part of the session. Expect sellers to defend VWAP on the next test.
• OBV proxy: November showed multiple high-volume down days; distribution bias persists.

8. Candles and intraday microstructure

• 12/18 candle: Small green body with a meaningful lower wick but a VWAP rejection; that’s not a high-quality hammer confirmation. The late bar showed a stop-sweep to ~170.94 (21:00 bar low) that was quickly reclaimed, indicating liquidity hunting; yet, close under VWAP means supply still dominant.
• Intraday levels: 173.6–174.0 is a pivot shelf; 175.5–176.6 is supply; 171.8–171.9 is first support; 170.9 is gap-fill/overnight sweep low.

9. Support/resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance: 175.5–176.6 (intraday R1 band), 177.7 (12/16 close), 179.7–180 (20-SMA and round number), 182–183 (prior congestion).
• Support: 173.6–174.0 (pivot shelf), 171.9 (S1), 170.9 (gap fill/Wednesday close & today’s sweep), 169.7 (S2 from pivots). Confluence around 171–172 (BB lower band + S1) is key.

10. Classical pivots (using H=176.15, L=171.82, C=174.14)

• Pivot P ≈ 174.04
• R1 ≈ 176.25; R2 ≈ 178.37; R3 ≈ 180.58
• S1 ≈ 171.92; S2 ≈ 169.71; S3 ≈ 167.59
• Trading implication: Shorting near R1 with a target near S1 offers good R:R within a one-day horizon.

11. Fibonacci retracements

• Using the 12/16 high (177.72) to 12/17 low (170.94):
  • 50% ≈ 174.33 (we closed just below)
  • 61.8% ≈ 175.18 (aligns with the lower edge of supply and below R1 176.25)
• Expect sellers to re-engage between 174.3–175.2 (golden pocket vicinity) up to ~176.3 (R1).

12. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun, and below a likely flat/down cloud. Until Tenkan/Kijun are reclaimed (>~176–178 area), base case remains bearish rallies.

13. Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel since early December; today’s rally reached the midline and pulled back. Continuation lower within channel is favored unless 176.5–177 is reclaimed with force.
• No confirmed reversal pattern (no morning star/engulfing on the daily close).

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Pop to 175.2–176.3 on open/early session, rejection near pivot R1/VWAP-overhang, drift back to 172.0–171.0 into the close. This respects pivots, Fibs, BB lower-band magnet, and trend.
• Bear extension (20–25%): Quick risk-off flush pierces 170.9, tags S2 ~169.7, then bounces to ~171–172. This aligns with ATR and prior demand pockets.
• Bull alternative (20–25%): Strong tape lifts price through 176.3 (R1) and holds above VWAP; squeeze extends toward 178.4 (R2). Confirmation requires acceptance >176.5 for at least 60–90 minutes; otherwise, fade the pop.

15. Risk management and invalidation

• Preferred short entry: 175.6–176.0 (near R1 confluence). If filled, bias is to scale out near 172.0–171.9.
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 176.6–177.0 (through R1 and holding above VWAP with rising cumulative delta) reduces edge for shorts; above ~178.4 (R2) the thesis fails tactically.
• Expected hold time: Intraday to 24 hours, aligning with ATR-based target windows.

Decision logic summary

• Under 5/10/20-day MAs: check.
• RSI not oversold (≈42): room to push lower: check.
• MACD negative: check.
• Close under VWAP with early strength sold: check.
• Confluence of resistance near 175.2–176.3 (Fib 61.8%/R1/VWAP): check.
• Targets S1/S2 (171.9/169.7) within 1x ATR: check. => Base case favors a Sell-the-rip setup targeting 171.9 (S1) in the next session.

Trade Plan (24h)

• Direction: Short (Sell)
• Entry (limit): 175.90 (near R1 zone; good fill probability on early pop)
• Take Profit: 171.90 (S1 pivot; gap-fill adjacency 170.9 provides extension potential if momentum is strong)
• Optional stop (not part of output schema): 177.80 (above supply and R1 failure zone). R:R ≈ (175.9→171.9 = 4.0) vs stop 1.9–1.9+, ~2.1:1.

Auxiliary notes

• If the market opens weak and doesn’t offer a pop, an alternate momentum entry is a break under 173.60 with tight risk, targeting 172.0 then 171.0. If, instead, NVDA reclaims and holds 176.6 with volume, stand aside or flip bias toward 178.4.

24-hour price path expectation

• High-probability intraday range: 169.7–176.3. Directional bias: mild downside with a preference for selling rallies into 175.2–176.3 and covering near 172.0–171.0.