NVDA: Shooting Star at Resistance — Short the Pop, Target the 186.5 Gap Edge

NVDA — Comprehensive 24-hour Technical Playbook (as of 2026-01-02 close, price ~188.85)

Executive summary:

• Multi-week trend: Uptrend off the 12/17 low (170.94) into a 12/26 high (190.53), with a fresh New Year gap-up and a failed breakout intraday to 192.93 that faded back below intraday VWAP. Near-term setup favors a tactical pullback within an overall constructive daily trend.
• Bias for next 24 hours: Mildly bearish to sideways first (gap-fill/probe of nearby supports), then potential stabilization. Best risk/reward is a short on a pop toward 189.6–190.2, targeting 186.5–187.0.

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure (Sep → Jan): • September base near 170–178, breakout leg into late October (peak ~212 on 10/29), then distribution and correction through mid-November, reaccumulation in December with capitulation low on 12/17 (170.94), followed by a rising sequence of higher lows into year-end. • Recent range: roughly 186–193. Multiple touches around 186.5 (12/31 low 186.49; 1/2 intraday floor) and supply reappearing 190–193 (1/2 spike 192.93 rejected).
• Intraday (1/2): • Opening drive up to 192.93, then consistent lower highs and close below VWAP. That’s a “failed opening drive” dynamic—often followed by either a gap-fill or at least an A-B-C intraday pullback the next session.

2. Candlestick/price-action signals

• 1/2 daily: Long upper wick / shooting-star-type candle at resistance (190–193), closing well off highs. Bearish near-term read given the context of a test into prior supply.
• Recent cluster of closes: 12/26–12/31 consolidated 190.53 → 186.50, then 1/2 gap up and fade; this preserves a short-term mean-reversion tendency toward the 186.5 gap edge.

3. Support and resistance mapping

• Immediate resistance: 189.6–190.6 (intraday VWAP/Kijun zone; prior intraday distribution area), then 192.5–193.5 (1/2 spike high 192.93; 10/9 high zone ~195 further above).
• Immediate support: 188.2–188.6 (intraday shelf), 186.5–186.9 (multiple daily touches: 12/31 low and 1/2 repeated test), then 184.8–185.6 (12/8–12/10 cluster), and 182.6–183.1 (Fibo 38.2% from 12/17 → 12/26, detailed below).
• Larger support: 176.5–178.5 (December congestion, round prior value area).

4. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA: ~183.0 (approx.). Price at 188.85 is >20-SMA by ~3.2%—bullish trend bias, but extended short term.
• 50-day SMA (approx.): high-183s to mid-184s given the multi-week tape. Price above 50-SMA—a constructive medium-term backdrop.
• Slope: 20-SMA rising, 50-SMA stabilizing/rising—medium-term momentum up. Pullbacks toward 186–184 would be technically “healthy” re-tests above rising MAs.

5. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14): ~69 (estimated from closes 12/12 → 1/2). Near overbought threshold. At resistance, a reversal from ~70 is a common mean-reversion trigger.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Fast line rolled over from overbought on intraday frames, consistent with a short-term pullback setup.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Positive and above signal after December turn-up; histogram likely peaked recently and is flattening—still supportive medium term but signaling a pause/consolidation near term.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: ~4.8 (approx.). Implies a typical daily swing of ~2.5% around current price. A 24-hour move to 186.5–187.0 is comfortably within normal range.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): • Middle band ~20-SMA ≈ 183.0. • Upper band ≈ 191.4 (est.)—today’s 192.93 probe likely stretched beyond the band intraday before reverting. • Current close 188.85 sits below the upper band and well above the mid-band, favoring either sideways digestion or a drift toward the mid-band if selling pressure persists.

7. VWAP and volume dynamics

• Intraday VWAP (1/2): ~189.5. Price closed below VWAP after a failed breakout—bearish intraday signal. A typical next-session pattern is a retest of VWAP from below (189.5–190 zone) that often offers a short setup if breadth/flows aren’t improving.
• Recent daily volumes: 120–205M typical into year-end; 1/2 printed ~146M with an upside rejection—distributional tone near resistance.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): High-volume nodes around 183–186 from December; recent activity is building a smaller node near 189–190. If sellers hold that node from above, price tends to rotate down to the prior HVN (185–186 area) before deciding trend continuation.

8. Fibonacci context

• Swing: 12/17 low 170.94 → 12/26 high 190.53 (range 19.59). • 38.2%: 183.04 • 50%: 180.24 • 61.8%: 177.45
• Price has not even tagged 38.2% on the post-12/26 digestion (shallow correction so far). In the very near term, 186.5–187.0 is the first line; deeper corrective magnet would be ~183 if sellers gain traction beyond one session. For the next 24 hours, the 186.5 gap edge is the highest-probability tag.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud with Tenkan and Kijun likely rising; Chikou above price—medium-term bullish. However, price extended above Tenkan suggests vulnerability to a Tenkan/Kijun check; that aligns with a 1–2 day dip toward 186–184 before trend continuation.

10. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 12/17 low, a 5-wave structure higher is plausible: impulse to 12/26 high, shallow wave 2/4-type pauses, and a 1/2 failed attempt at new highs on 1/2 that looks like a wave-4 pullback underway. If correct, a brief pullback (toward 186–187) would precede a later attempt at 191–195. That favors short-term tactical short, medium-term bullish continuation.

11. Mean reversion vs momentum (cross-check)

• Momentum: Still positive on daily, but stretched (RSI ~69) and with a rejection wick.
• Mean reversion: Under VWAP, upper-BB tag/failure, and a visible gap below—tilts odds to a modest pullback first.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early pop to 189.6–190.2 (VWAP/Kijun retest), sellers defend; roll down to 186.5–187.0 by the close/overnight. Consolidation near 186.5 into the next session.
• Bull case (30%): Strong bid reclaims VWAP early, pushes 190.8–191.8. If 192 holds on a 30–60 min closing basis, squeeze to 193–194 possible; however, this likely requires improving breadth or a catalyst.
• Bear extension (15%): Weak open that skips the bounce and tests 186.5 quickly; if 186.5 breaks on volume, extension to 185.5 and even 184.0–183.5 (38.2% fib) becomes viable. Lower probability within 24 hours absent a fresh headline.

13. Risk considerations

• Macro/news risk into first week of the year can override technicals. Liquidity pockets around the open and lunch can exaggerate moves. Manage execution around VWAP/supply zones rather than chasing lows.

Conclusion and trade plan

• Overall medium-term trend is constructive, but the immediate setup (shooting star at 192–193, under VWAP, RSI ~69) supports a tactical short on strength.
• Optimal execution: Sell the pop into 189.6–190.2 with a take-profit near the 186.5–187.0 support. If price gaps down straight into 187, avoid chasing; look instead for a bounce toward 189 to re-establish risk/reward.
• Invalidation (context only): Sustained reclaim and hold above ~190.8–191.0 (VWAP plus local supply) weakens the short; strong closes above ~192.2 invalidate and open 193.5–195.