NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA Pressing Into the 190.5 Ceiling: Pullback-Buy Setup Targeting 192–194 Supply

NVDA (NVIDIA) — 24h Technical Outlook (based on provided daily + intraday bars)

1) Market structure & trend (multi-timeframe)

Daily structure (Oct 2025 → Feb 2026):

NVDA peaked around 212 (Oct 29), then entered a broad corrective/sideways regime.
Notable drawdown into early Feb: ~194 (Jan 30) → ~171.9 (Feb 5 low/close area), followed by a sharp mean-reversion rally back to the high-180s/low-190s.
Current price 189.82 sits in the upper half of the post-Feb bounce range.

Near-term daily swing:

Feb 5 close 171.88 → Feb 9 close 190.04 (impulse up)
Since Feb 9, price action is choppy and range-like, with lower volatility than the impulse leg.

Intraday (hourly on Feb 20):

Most hours show a grind up from the 186–187 area to 189.8–189.9.
One anomalous bar at 21:00 shows an extreme range (High 201.52 / Low 177.40) that is inconsistent with surrounding prints; I treat it as bad tick / aggregation artifact and do not use it as a valid breakout/breakdown signal.

Conclusion (structure): short-term is mildly bullish (bounce + higher intraday lows) but still inside a bigger consolidation under the ~192–194 supply zone.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)

Key resistance (supply):

190.3–190.5: repeated intraday tests on Feb 20 (high 190.33). Immediate cap.
192.3–193.6: cluster of highs late Jan / Feb 9–12.
194.0–194.5: late-Jan swing region; also aligns with prior distribution before the Feb drop.

Key support (demand):

188.8–189.0: intraday pivot zone (multiple closes around 189.36–189.83).
187.5–187.9: Feb 19–20 pivot area.
186.0–186.3: intraday lows and pre-rally base.
182.8–185.7: Feb 13–19 daily lows band (deeper support if risk-off).

3) Moving averages (inference from series)

(Exact MA values not directly computable here with full precision, but behavior can be inferred from the sequence.)

Price has moved back above the short-term mean after the Feb 5 low; the market is likely above the 10–20 day region (given the rebound from ~172 to ~190).
The 50-day zone is likely overhead/nearby given the prolonged range since Nov–Jan. This typically creates overhead friction near 192–194.

Implication: upside is plausible, but expect sell programs into 192–194 unless volume expands strongly.

4) Momentum & oscillation read (RSI/MACD style interpretation)

The Feb 5 → Feb 9 move is a classic momentum burst, often pushing RSI toward overbought; subsequent days show momentum cooling (sideways closes 186–190).
This is consistent with bullish but not explosive conditions: a market digesting gains rather than trending aggressively.

Implication for next 24h: higher probability of a range-to-up day than a breakdown, with resistance at 190.3–192.

5) Volatility & range (ATR-style)

Daily ranges in the last ~2 weeks are still relatively wide (e.g., Feb 6 range ~12+, Feb 9 range ~9.7), then tightening.
Tightening after an impulse often precedes a continuation attempt; however, continuation is usually capped by nearby supply (here: 190.3 then 192–194).

24h expectation: moderate volatility; likely ~1.5%–3% swing unless a catalyst hits.

6) Volume / participation

Heaviest volumes occurred during the selloff (late Nov, and early Feb) and the rebound (Feb 6–9), typical of capitulation + reversal.
Recent sessions show still healthy volume (Feb 20 daily volume ~177.7M), supporting that the bounce is not purely illiquid drift.

Implication: dips into support are more likely to be bought than to cascade immediately—unless the market broad tape turns sharply risk-off.

7) Pattern recognition

From early Feb: a V-reversal / mean-reversion rally, then tight consolidation between roughly 182.8 and 193.6.
The last few days form a small ascending consolidation (higher lows) pressing into 190–190.5.

Implication: suggests a probable retest of 190.3–192 within 24 hours.

8) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability):

Price holds 188.8–189.0, pushes to retest 190.3–190.5, and if it clears with acceptance, extends toward 191.8–192.5.

Bull case:

Clean break above 192.5 opens a move toward 193.6–194.5 (prior supply). Likely requires strong market/sector strength.

Bear case:

Failure at 190.3–190.5 followed by loss of 188.8 can rotate down to 187.5, then 186.2. A daily close below ~186 would weaken the bounce structure and risk revisiting 184–183.

Net 24h bias: slightly bullish / continuation attempt, but with defined overhead supply.

Trading plan (tactical)

Given current price 189.82 is under a well-defined intraday cap (190.3–190.5), the best expectancy is to buy a pullback into support rather than chase into resistance.

Entry (optimal open): place a limit buy near 188.90 (prior pivot support).
Take profit (close): 192.40 (just below the heavier 192.5–193.0 supply zone; realistic 24h target).

This expresses: buy support, sell into the next resistance band.

Risk note (not requested but essential): invalidation would be a sustained break below ~187.5/186.2; adjust sizing accordingly.