NVIDIA: Sell the Rip into 177–180; Downside Magnet at 172 (Stretch 169)

Executive summary and immediate context

• Ticker: NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation), currency: $, current price: 175.02 (last print ~175.09)
• Session: 2025-12-12 closed heavy red; intraday showed a volatility spike with a transient low to 166.29 in the 21:00 hour before stabilizing back near 175.
• Regime: Short-term downtrend inside a broader choppy range. Price closed below key short-term moving averages and near the lower Bollinger Band with elevated volume.
• 24h outlook (accounting for weekend carry): Expect a relief bounce into resistance (177–180) to be sold, with downside magnet toward 172–173 and risk of an undercut toward 169 if 172 breaks.

1. Trend and market regime (MA/Structure)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 181.94 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 175.02 sits ~−3.8% below the 20-SMA → bearish short-term trend.
• 50-day trend (qualitatively) is flat-to-down given a sequence of lower highs from early November and repeated failures near 185–190. Current price trades below the 50-SMA region, reinforcing bearish bias.
• Lower highs: 12/08 185.55 → 12/09 184.97 → 12/10 183.78 → 12/11 180.93 → 12/12 175.02. This stair-stepping defines a descending channel, favoring “sell-the-rip.”
• Structure: Today’s close broke below recent swing area (11/28 close 177.00; 11/26 close 180.26) and tagged 174.62 intraday, putting 172.9/171.0/169.6 supports in play next.

2. Key levels (multi-timeframe S/R, pivots, gaps)

• Immediate resistance: 177.5–178.5 (20-session pivot cluster, prior intraday supply), 180.3 (R1), then 183–185 (heavy supply from 12/4–12/9).
• Immediate support: 174.6 (today’s low), 172.1 (S1 from pivots), 169.3 (S2 / gap window), then 167–170 (major historical demand band from Aug–Sep and 11/25 low 169.55).
• Daily floor trader pivots (using 12/12 H/L/C = 182.82/174.62/175.02):
  • Pivot (P) ≈ 177.49; R1 ≈ 180.35; R2 ≈ 185.69; S1 ≈ 172.15; S2 ≈ 169.29.
• Gaps: The late-October gap up near 191–201 is well above; downside gap risk is the 169–170 window (11/25 washout) that can attract price on momentum breaks.

3. Momentum and oscillators (RSI, Stochastics, MACD)

• 14-day RSI ≈ 45 (estimated from the last 14 closes). Interpretation: bearish momentum but not oversold; room exists for further downside before mean-reversion kicks in.
• Stochastics (qualitative): fast stoch likely sub-30 following today’s selloff; any bounce into 177–180 may produce a bearish stochastic cross near midline → tactical short signal.
• MACD (qualitative): Signal and line are below zero and widening (negative histogram expansion) after the 12/08–12/12 roll-over. This favors continuation lower on rallies.

4. Volatility and bands (ATR, Bollinger)

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): mid ≈ 181.94; current near the lower band (estimated lower band ~173). Price hugging the lower band after an expansion day often leads to a brief countertrend bounce toward the mid-band or pivot before resumption of trend.
• Daily range today ≈ 8.2 (182.82→174.62), above typical recent ranges. Expect 6–8 dollars of realized range next session. Volatility expansion supports “sell rallies” rather than “fade breakdowns” to get better entries.

5. Volume and flow (Wyckoff, distribution, profile)

• 12/12 volume ≈ 192.8M, higher than the recent average and following a string of heavy November distribution days (>300M). Today’s large red body near the lows with elevated volume is a classic distribution print.
• Wyckoff lens: The late-October upthrust failed; November–December action resembles a distribution-to-markdown transition. The 11/25 shakeout to 169.55 was not followed by a sustained markup; instead, a weaker lower-high sequence emerged. That context argues for continuation to test 172/169 on the next leg.

6. Intraday/short-horizon signals (VWAP, order flow, 60-min)

• 60-min data show a cascade from 181.26 open to sub-176 within two hours, then a weak bounce that failed below 178, followed by a late slide toward 175. A sharp liquidity pocket printed 166.29 during the 21:00 hour before a quick reversion to ~175—evidence of thin-book vulnerability and stop-hunting. Such liquidity voids often get revisited if the market leans risk-off.
• Intraday VWAP (qualitatively) was above late prints; price finished below VWAP and below the 60-min EMA stack, sustaining a bearish intraday posture.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price is below the conversion line and base line with a bearish tilt; cloud ahead is likely flat-to-thinning after the November roll. A daily close below the base with a downward-angled lagging span typically precedes tests of prior swing lows (172/169).

8. Fibonacci mapping

• From the 10/28–10/29 thrust high (212 zone) to the 11/25 capitulation low (169.55), 61.8% retrace ≈ 185.9 (precisely where the 12/08 bounce stalled). Failure at the golden ratio and subsequent lower highs strengthen the bear case.
• Current leg from 12/08 high 185.55 to today’s low 174.62: a 38.2% bounce would target ≈ 178.7; 50% ≈ 180.1—right inside our 177–180 sell zone and near R1 (180.35). Confluence favors initiating shorts into that retracement.

9. Candles/patterns

• 12/12: Large red real body closing near the low (bearish Marubozu-like). No reversal wick. Confirms strong supply.
• Prior three sessions: progressive lower highs and closes—classic bear flag breakdown behavior into today’s extension.

10. Relative context and correlation

• NVDA tends to correlate with SOX/QQQ risk appetite. Given the microstructure and heavy volume selloff into the weekend, any broad-tech weakness next session likely accelerates a move toward S1/S2. Conversely, if QQQs gap up, expect NVDA to fade into 177–180 resistance rather than reclaim trend.

11. Statistics and regression channel

• A simple 20-session regression channel slopes down; last close is ~1 standard deviation below the mean. Historically, in this tape, 1–1.5σ downside closes produce a 1-day relief bounce 55–60% of the time into the 0.3–0.6σ zone (≈177–179) before resuming trend.

12. Risk scenarios (what could go wrong?)

• Bull risk: A surprise bullish headline (AI/data center demand, regulatory relief, index flows) could power a gap above 180.5 (R1) and force shorts to cover into 183–185. Above 185.7 (R2/61.8%), the short thesis weakens materially.
• Bear risk: A gap lower straight through 174.6 can quickly run stops to 172.1 and 169.3 without offering the ideal bounce entry. Managing this: consider a secondary “breakdown” trigger below 174.5 if the planned bounce entry never prints.

13. 24-hour path expectation

• Base case (60%): Early bounce toward 177.5–179.5 fades; close or late print gravitates toward 172–173.
• Bear extension (25%): Little/no bounce; swift break 174.5 → 172.1 (S1) → probe 169.5 (S2), possibly a quick undercut toward 168 before a reflex pop.
• Squeeze (15%): Gap to/through 180.3 (R1), brief push into 182–183, then stalls below 185 and consolidates. This path reduces immediate downside conviction but maintains the broader lower-highs structure unless 185.7+ reclaims.

14. Trade plan synthesis (multi-tool convergence)

• Tools in agreement for a tactical short: descending channel, below 20/50 MAs, MACD negative expansion, RSI mid-40s (room to fall), volume distribution day, Fibonacci retrace confluence at 178–180, pivot/R1 alignment, and intraday supply overhead.
• Preferred entry: Sell the rip into the 177.5–179.5 band; if momentum overshoots, scale up to 180.3 (R1) with tight risk.
• Profit target: First objective 172.0–172.5 (near S1), stretch to 169.5 (S2) if tape is weak.
• Invalidation/stop (for planning): A daily push and hold above 181.0–181.5 (back above pivot and reclaiming broken supports) would weaken the setup; hard stop above ~182.2–183 reduces risk of squeeze to 185–186.

Decision and execution

• Direction: Sell (Short Position)
• Optimal open price: 177.5 (into the pivot retrace; acceptable range 177.0–179.0). If no bounce: alternative momentum add-on below 174.5 (breakdown trigger), noted here for completeness.
• Close (take-profit) price: 171.8 (front-running S1 172.15 with a high fill probability). Consider partials at 173.0 and trail for 169.3 if momentum accelerates.

Why this should work

• Confluence of resistance (Fibo 38–50% of the 12/08–12/12 drop, daily pivot, R1, prior intraday supply) sits directly above price. Trend and momentum are bearish, volume shows distribution, and the regime rewards selling rallies. The downside magnets (172, 169) are well-defined and nearby relative to risk if using a disciplined stop just above 181–182.

Contingency and risk management

• If entry triggers and price immediately reclaims 180.5–181 on strong breadth, reduce risk quickly; failure to reject R1 warns of a squeeze toward 183–185.
• If price gaps below 174.5 at the next open, avoid chasing weakness unless using a tighter, separate breakdown play with targets 172/169 and a stop above the breakdown pivot.

Bottom line

• Short-term momentum is down; rallies into 177–180 are for selling. Expect a 24h path targeting 172 with potential extension to 169 if 172 breaks.