NVDA poised for a mean‑reversion bounce off 61.8% support: buy the 176 dip toward 181

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Short-term mean-reversion bounce is favored from 175–176 support toward 179–181. Broader daily trend remains corrective/lower since late October. I will position long for a 1-day move back to the 20-day mean/near-term pivots, while respecting a tight invalidation below ~174.6.

Price action and structure

• Higher time frame (daily): After peaking near 212 in late Oct, NVDA sold off through Nov, bottomed near 169.6 (11/25), bounced to 188 (12/8), then stair-stepped lower again into 12/12 (close 175.02). Today (12/15) closed 176.29. This is a corrective downtrend within a larger bullish multi-month context. The last week shows lower highs (185 → 183.8 → 180.9 → 175), but price is now sitting on well-defined support (174.6–176) that has reacted multiple times.
• Intraday (hourly, 12/15): Early weakness to 175.45 was bought, later drifted to 176–177 area. A 21:00 print spiked to 183.95 then quickly reverted; that looks like an anomalous wick/irregular print rather than sustained auction acceptance. Net: sellers controlled VWAP most of session, but bids appear around 175–176.

Support/resistance map

• Nearby support: 175.0 (12/12 low 174.62; 12/15 low 175.03), then 172.9 (11/21 low), then 170–171 (9/2–9/3 closes; 11/25 low 169.55). This 174.6–176 zone is a confluence shelf (swing low cluster, lower Bollinger band, and 61.8% retrace—see below).
• Overhead resistance: 179.0–181.0 (intraday congestion and 20-d mean), 182.5–184.0 (prior gap area from 12/11 and repeated daily highs), 186.3–188.0 (Kijun/dec highs), and 190+ (bigger-picture retrace zone).

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 181.25 (est. from the last 20 closes). Price at 176.29 is ~2.7% below: this favors a mean-reversion bounce if sellers fail to punch below 174.6.
• 50-day SMA (est.) sits higher, ~184–186, consistent with a corrective phase beneath intermediate trend. The slope is flattening to slightly down—momentum is cooling but not collapsing.
• Read: Price below 20/50-day SMAs = medium-term caution; proximity to 20-day mean (≈181) offers a near-term magnet for a 1–day reversion trade.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ≈ 181.25; lower band estimated ~175–176 given recent realized vol. Today’s close 176.29 effectively kissed the lower band. Typical pattern: when RSI is sub-45 and price tags the lower band at a prior swing shelf, next-day probabilities skew to an inside-to-up day toward the mid-band. Target window 179–181 aligns with this.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14, daily) est. ~40–43: bearish-bias but not oversold extreme; room to bounce before encountering resistance near 50.
• Stochastic (14) using HH=188 (12/8), LL=174.62 (12/12): %K ≈ 12–13% at close → oversold; cross-up potential if price holds 175–176.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and below zero, but histogram likely contracting as the decline decelerates near support—classic setup for a 1–3 day countertrend pop.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14, daily) ≈ 4.8–5.2 (est.). One-day expected move ≈ ±5. Given 176.3 close, a 1-σ band projects ~171.3–181.3. My upside target (≈181.4) sits near the top of the one-day expected range, reachable if bids persist early.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• November’s down legs printed heavier volume (distribution), then early December bounce lightened. Last three sessions: 204M (12/8), 145M (12/9), 163M (12/15). Today’s constructive behavior is modest volume—not a trend day, more of a stabilization day. OBV since mid-Nov has drifted lower, consistent with a corrective phase; short-term OBV basing fits a bounce rather than a breakout thesis.

VWAP and intraday microstructure (12/15)

• Price spent most of the day below or oscillating around intraday VWAP near ~176.8–177.2. Late-day prints below VWAP confirm seller control intraday, but the inability to push through 175.0 suggests dip-buying interest at the shelf. If the next session reclaims VWAP early, a rotation to 179–181 is favored.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period) ≈ (HH+LL)/2 past 9 days ≈ (188 + 174.62)/2 ≈ 181.31.
• Kijun-sen (26-period) ≈ (203.15 + 169.55)/2 ≈ 186.35.
• Price < Tenkan < Kijun and likely below the cloud → trend-bearish, but the immediate magnet is the Tenkan around 181.3, consistent with my 24h target.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing up (11/25 low 169.55 → 12/8 high 188.00):
  • 38.2%: 180.95; 50%: 178.78; 61.8%: 176.61. Today’s close 176.29 is just under the 61.8%, a common bounce spot if reclaimed. A move above 176.6–176.8 would confirm a fib reclaim and often extends to the 50–38.2% zone (≈178.8–181.0) within a session.
• Larger swing down (10/29 high 212.19 → 11/25 low 169.55):
  • 23.6%: 179.6; 38.2%: 185.9; 50%: 190.9. Price under 179.6 keeps the medium-term picture cautious, reinforcing the idea to aim for 179–181 first, not to press for 186+ in 24h.

Pivot levels for next session (calculated from 12/15 H=178.415, L=175.031, C=176.29)

• Pivot (P): 176.58
• R1: 178.13; R2: 179.96; R3: 182.41
• S1: 174.74; S2: 173.20; S3: 170.75
• Plan: Ideal long works from above S1 (174.7) toward P/R1/R2. R2 at ~179.96 and R3 at ~182.41 nicely bracket the Tenkan and BB mid-band cluster.

Candles and patterns

• 12/12 printed a wide-range down day to 174.6; 12/15 closed back above 175 with a small real body—possible stabilization at support. The hourly has a series of equal lows near 176 and higher intraday lows after the first flush—early sign of basing.

Regression channel / mean reversion

• A short-term descending channel from 12/9 is intact; price now at the lower boundary. Mean reversion to the channel midline lands around 179–180 over the next session barring macro shocks.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base (55%): Support 174.7–176 holds; early reclaim of 176.6–177; rotation to 178.1 (R1) then 179.9–181.3 (R2/Tenkan/mid-BB). Close near 180–181.
• Bear (30%): Early break <174.7 triggers stops; drive to 173.2 (S2) and possibly 172.9 shelf. Low-end extension risk to 171–171.5 if broader market is risk-off.
• Bull squeeze (15%): Strong open above 177.5, aggressive buying through 179.9 → fast test of 181.3–182.4 (R3/BB mid-upper). Over 182.5 would start filling the 12/11 gap toward 183.8, but that’s less likely in 24h without a catalyst.

Confluence checklist toward a long

• Lower Bollinger band touch + RSI low-40s + Stoch oversold.
• 61.8% retracement support (176.6) from the 11/25–12/8 leg.
• Classic pivots cluster (P 176.6; S1 174.7; R1 178.1; R2 180.0) providing a structured pathway.
• Tenkan-sen magnet ≈ 181.3 within 1x ATR.
• Hourly basing around 176 with responsive bids near 175.

Risk management considerations

• Invalidation: A decisive hourly close below 174.6 increases odds of a run to 172.9; that would negate the mean-reversion setup.
• Expected 1-day volatility ~5 points suggests sizing for a 2–3 point adverse swing before deciding on invalidation.

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Direction: Buy the dip for a mean-reversion bounce.
• Entry: Limit near 175.9 (inside the 175–176 demand, slightly below pivot P 176.6).
• Target: 181.4 (just above R2 179.96 and near Tenkan/BB mid), allowing for a squeeze to the top of expected range.
• Optional risk guard (not requested for fields): Stop ~174.6 (below S1 and 12/12 low). This offers roughly 1.3 downside vs. 5.5 upside (~4.2R) if the target is realized; more conservatively, vs. 179.9 (R2) it’s ~4.0 up vs. 1.3 down (~3R).

Bottom line

• The medium-term remains corrective, but the immediate confluence at 175–176 favors a 1-day bounce toward 179–181. I choose Buy with a dip entry and target the 20-day mean/Tenkan cluster. A break of 174.6 would flip the bias to defensive.