NVDA poised to break post‑OPEX pin: buy the 180.5 pivot for a push toward 185–186

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for NVDA as of 2025-12-19 close (current price ≈ 180.99)

Context and recent structure

• Regime: After an October breakout to 212 (10/29), NVDA retraced steadily through November into mid-December, bottoming at 170.94 on 12/17. The last two sessions show a strong rebound: 12/18 higher close (174.14) and 12/19 robust follow-through to 180.99 on heavy volume (≈264.6M shares), coincident with December monthly options expiration (gamma pin dynamics likely around 180).
• Short-term takeaway: Momentum has flipped positive over the last two sessions, price reclaimed key short-term moving averages and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 212→170.94 downswing.

Daily trend, moving averages, momentum

• 5/10/20-day SMAs (approx.): • 5SMA ≈ 176.0 (price > 5SMA) • 10SMA ≈ 179.0 (price > 10SMA) • 20SMA ≈ 179.7 (price > 20SMA) Interpretation: Near-term momentum is positive; price has reclaimed the short-term trend stack.
• 50SMA (approx. mid/high-180s): Price still below 50SMA, signaling medium-term trend is not yet confirmed bullish; this creates a likely resistance band into 186–190.
• RSI(14) (qualitative): Rose from oversold mid-30s near 12/17 low to the mid- to high-40s/low-50s with the rebound; no overbought conditions. Rising RSI supports continuation.
• Stochastics: Fast lines have crossed up from oversold and are advancing toward the mid-zone; supports near-term upside continuation before overbought conditions emerge.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contracting toward zero; signal-line cross to the upside appears near. A positive cross early next week would corroborate bullish follow-through.
• ADX/DI: After a persistent downtrend into 12/17, DI- dominance has faded; DI+ curling up. ADX likely elevated but flattening—favors a rebound phase.

Volume, market structure, and breadth

• 12/19 volume (≈264.6M) meaningfully above recent average—consistent with OPEX and a potential gamma pin near 180. Pinning into the close suggests hedging flows suppressed range late day. Post-OPEX, the “pin” often releases, allowing a directional move on Monday. Directional bias skews slightly higher given two-day breadth thrust.
• OBV (qualitative): Uptick over the last two sessions; accumulation signs emerging.

Price levels: support/resistance, pivots, VWAP

• Key supports: 179.6 (classic pivot; see below), 178.7–179.3 (intraday shelf), 177.7 (S1), 176.3 (12/19 intraday low), 174.5 (S2) and 170.9 (swing low/critical invalidation).
• Key resistances: 182.8 (R1), 184.7 (R2), 186.5–186.6 (38.2% Fib of 212→170.94), 188.7–190.2 (upper Bollinger band region and prior supply), 191.5 (50% Fib), 196.3 (61.8% Fib).
• Classic daily pivots using 12/19 H/L/C = 181.45/176.35/180.99: • Pivot P ≈ 179.60; R1 ≈ 182.84; R2 ≈ 184.70; R3 ≈ 187.94; S1 ≈ 177.74; S2 ≈ 174.50; S3 ≈ 172.64.
• VWAP (12/19, qualitative): Clustered near 180.4–180.8; the 180.5 zone acted as a magnet and closing anchor. Expect initial reaction around this band on next session’s open.

Bollinger Bands, ATR, and expected range

• BB(20,2): Center ≈ 179.7; estimated upper ≈ 188.5–189.0; lower ≈ 170.5–171.0. Price near mid-band with room toward the upper band without overbought conditions.
• ATR(14) (approx.): ~4.5–5.0. A 1-day move of ±2.5–5.0 is typical; upside extension to 183–186 is feasible, downside retest to ~178 is also possible.

Fibonacci and mean-reversion alignment

• From 212 (10/29 high) to 170.94 (12/17 low): delta ≈ 41.06. • 23.6% = 180.64 (reclaimed on 12/19 close; now a pivot). • 38.2% ≈ 186.61 (first substantial retrace target/resistance). • 50% ≈ 191.47; 61.8% ≈ 196.35 (deeper retrace targets if momentum expands).
• Z-score vs 20SMA: (180.99−179.68)/σ. With σ daily ≈ 4.5, Z ≈ +0.29—mildly above mean, not extended; leaves upside room.

Candles and patterns

• 12/17: Long lower-shadow day near 171; hammer-like reversal.
• 12/18–12/19: Two-session bullish follow-through. 12/19 closed near highs, wide-range up day on heavy volume—bullish conviction signal.
• Intraday 12/19: Strong open drive, consolidation around 180–181, with multiple bids near 179.8–180.6, and buyers into the close.
• A modest daily double-bottom variant: 170.9 (12/17) followed by a higher low intraday 12/19 (176.35) before close highs—constructive. A larger W could complete on a break/hold above 186–187.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative approximation)

• Price reclaimed above Tenkan; baseline (Kijun) likely near the high-170s/low-180s; a Tenkan > Kijun cross next week would be bullish. Price likely still below or inside a thinning Kumo from the November breakdown; a bullish Kumo test would occur near mid/high-180s.

Elliott Wave framing (qualitative)

• Primary A down: 212 → 170.9.
• Current phase likely B rebound: Typical B targets are 0.382–0.5 retrace (186.6–191.5). Micro structure supports a leg higher toward 183–186 before meaningful resistance.

Market microstructure and options context

• OPEX pin at 180 appears likely given the close and volume. Post-expiration, gamma restraints ease; if spot opens above the pivot (179.6–180.6) and holds, dealers may reduce short gamma hedges, enabling a push toward R1/R2 (182.8/184.7). If a gap-up clears R1 at the open, first pullback to 182.8 often provides a low-risk continuation entry.

Sector/relative backdrop (qualitative)

• Semis typically benefit from late-December seasonality (“Santa rally”), and NVDA beta can amplify index drift. Without adverse macro catalysts, this supports an upside skew near term.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Unfilled micro-gap to 12/19 open (176.66 vs 12/18 close 174.14) leaves a partial gap below; a deeper pullback could target S1 177.7 or S2 174.5 (gap-fill) before resuming higher.
• A decisive close back below the 20SMA (~179.7) would weaken the immediate bullish case; loss of S1 (177.7) shifts probabilities to a retest of 176.3 then 174.5.

Intraday plan for next session (24h outlook)

• Base case probability tree: • 60%: Early dip-and-rip—test 180.5±0.3 (VWAP/Pivot), then squeeze through 182.8 (R1) to 183.8–185.2; fade near 184.7 (R2). Day close likely 183–185 if risk-on persists. • 25%: Range day—oscillate 179.6–182.8; close 180.5–182.0. • 15%: Risk-off—break 179.6 and 177.7 (S1) toward 176.3; max extension 174.5 if gap-fill occurs.
• Tactics: Favor buying pullbacks toward 180.3–180.7 with stops below 178.6; scale out into 183.8–185.8. If opening gap >183, wait for a retrace to 182.8 (R1) to enter.

Synthesis and conclusion

• Multiple tools align bullish for the next session: price > 5/10/20 SMAs, reclaim of 23.6% Fib at 180.6, strong volume thrust, post-OPEX pin release, supportive oscillators not overbought, and room toward R2 and the 38.2% Fib at ~186.6. Medium-term resistance lives 186–190; thus, a tactical long aims for 184–186 initially.
• 24h directional view: Bullish bias with expected range 179.5–185.5, upside tail risk to 186.5 if momentum expands.

Trade setup (tactical, next session)

• Direction: Buy the dip into the 180.5 pivot zone.
• Entry: 180.5–180.6 (limit preferred). Alternate: If gap >183, buy pullback to 182.8.
• Target: 185.8 (just ahead of R2 extension and below 38.2% Fib 186.6). Conservative first scale 183.8–184.7.
• Invalidation (guide): A sustained break below 178.6 (below Friday’s intraday shelves) jeopardizes the setup; below 177.7 opens a path to gap-fill 174.5.