NVDA Coils Above the Pivot: Post-Selloff Mean Reversion Targets 190–192 (24h Tactical Setup)

Market structure & context (Daily)

Current price: 187.67

1) Trend + swing structure

• Medium-term range: Since early Nov 2025 NVDA has mostly oscillated between ~175 and ~192, with notable tail events down to ~173 and spikes toward ~203–212 in late Oct.
• Recent swing (Dec → Jan):
  • Dec 17 low close ~170.94 marked a capitulation leg.
  • Recovery into late Dec/early Jan peaked around 190.5–189.2.
  • Jan 20 printed a sharp breakdown day to 178.07 close, then snap-back to 183–185 and now back to 187–188.
• Implication: The dominant regime is range-bound, but the latest impulse from Jan 20 low is upward mean-reversion back into the upper half of the range.

2) Support / resistance mapping (horizontal + pivot)

• Immediate resistance (supply):
  • 188.9–189.7 (multiple daily highs/lows + today’s intraday spike region)
  • 190.5–192.0 (late Dec/early Jan local highs; strong overhead supply)
• Immediate support (demand):
  • 186.8–187.1 (today’s intraday low area / micro base)
  • 184.8–185.0 (yesterday close zone; frequent balance level)
  • 183.0–183.5 (recent pivots; if lost, opens room to 180)
  • 178.0–179.0 (Jan 20 capitulation base)

3) Moving averages (inference from series)

• The last ~20 trading days cluster around mid–high 180s, implying the 20DMA is near ~185–187.
• Price at 187.67 is slightly above the likely 20DMA, suggesting short-term bullish bias.
• Longer averages (50DMA) likely sit in the mid/high 180s given Nov–Jan compression; price is not extended vs. trend → favors mean-reversion continuation rather than trend exhaustion.

4) Momentum (RSI-style reasoning)

• The selloff into Jan 20 and rebound into Jan 23 typically pushes RSI from weak/neutral back toward 50–60, not extreme.
• No clear overbought condition on daily given recent drawdown; momentum supports one more push upward into resistance.

5) Volume / participation

• Several very high volume days occurred on breakdowns (Nov 20–21, Jan 20) → distribution/forced selling followed by stabilization.
• Today’s daily bar volume (intraday) appears healthy (~140M shown), consistent with active rotation rather than a thin bounce.

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Intraday (Hourly) microstructure (Jan 23)

1) Volatility / anomaly detection

• The 21:00 candle shows an extreme range (high ~192.85, low ~177.78) that is inconsistent with the surrounding hours and the day’s OHLC. This looks like bad print / data artifact or a single outlier event.
• Excluding that outlier, the tape is a tight consolidation around 187–188 after a sharp midday ramp.

2) Intraday trend

• Price impulsed from ~184 area to ~189 area, then compressed around 187.5–187.9.
• Compression after an impulse typically resolves in the direction of the prior impulse (bullish continuation), unless rejected sharply at resistance.

3) Key intraday levels

• Pivot: ~187.50 (multiple closes)
• Breakout trigger: sustained trade above 188.10–188.40
• Failure trigger: loss of 186.80–187.00 (would signal bull trap / rotation back to 185)

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Pattern & strategy overlays

A) Range-trading playbook (dominant regime)

• NVDA is in a broad range. At 187.7, price is in the upper-middle of the range, not at the extremes.
• Range logic suggests:
  • Upside is limited to 189–192 before heavier supply.
  • Downside if rejected could revisit 185 then 183.

B) Mean reversion (post-shock recovery)

• Jan 20 shock to 178 followed by 3-day recovery implies mean reversion toward fair value (~186–189).
• Mean reversion often overshoots slightly into the next resistance band → 190–191 test is plausible.

C) Breakout / continuation probability

• Price has reclaimed 185 and is holding above it.
• If 188.9–189.7 is cleared with acceptance, next magnet is 190.5–192.
• But because higher-timeframe is rangy, breakouts often fail at 190–192.

D) Candlestick logic (daily)

• Recent candles: sharp down day (Jan 20) → recovery candles (Jan 21–23). This is typical of a V-reversal / bear-trap sequence.
• Today’s action: close near 187.7 with highs near 189.6 suggests buyers present, but still under major 190–192 supply.

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24-hour forecast (probabilistic)

Base case (higher probability): mild upside drift / retest of resistance

• Expected path: 187.0–188.0 holds → probe 188.9–189.7 → possible extension to 190.5–191.5 if buyers sustain.
• Probability: ~55–60%

Bear case: rejection at 188.9–189.7

• Expected path: fail to hold 187 → rotate to 185.0, and if risk-off accelerates, 183.3.
• Probability: ~35–40%

Tail case: hard breakdown

• Only if broad market risk-off or news shock; then 183 fails → 180/178 retest.
• Probability: low, ~5%

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Trade decision (1-day horizon)

Given (1) reclaimed short-term balance above ~185–186, (2) consolidation after impulse, and (3) no clear daily overbought signal, the best 24h edge is a tactical long targeting the next resistance band.

Risk note

Because the instrument is range-bound and overhead supply at 190–192 is heavy, this is a short-duration, resistance-targeting long, not a long-term breakout bet.