NVDA at the 78.6% Pivot: Positioning for a Reflexive Bounce off Capitulation Lows

Snapshot and context

• Symbol: NVDA (USD). Current price: 180.64 at 2025-11-20 22:00 UTC (last regular-hours close 179.87–180.64 region depending on print). Daily volume spiked to ~338M shares, the largest in weeks, signaling capitulation/transition day.
• Session character (11/20): Opened near 196, flushed to 179.9 lows, brief rebound to 186.5, then rolled over to close around 180. A high-range, high-volume, trend-down day with heavy distribution below session VWAP.
• Objective: Predict next 24h direction and derive an optimal trade plan.

Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily, since late Oct): After the 10/28–10/29 breakout to 201–212, NVDA has carved a sequence of lower highs (212→207→206.9→199→193.8→190.2→186.5) and progressively lower lows, forming a corrective downtrend/descending channel. Today’s candle expands the range and tests deeper supports.
• Intermediate structure: Price has returned to the late-Sep to mid-Oct value area (176–186), which historically attracted strong two-way flow. This revisiting suggests mean-reversion potential within that band.
• Intraday (hourly/15-min): A waterfall selloff from the open, persistent below intraday VWAP most of the day, then late-day stabilization. On 15–60 min, momentum decelerated into the close and started printing early bullish divergence (price made marginal new lows around 179.9 while RSI didn’t make new troughs), hinting at bounce risk.

Support/resistance map (from recent pivots and auctions)

• Immediate support: 179.9 (session low), 178.2 (10/26 close), 177.8–177.3 (cluster from 10/15–10/26), 176.2 (9/18 pivot), 175.4–175.0 (8/20 close and 88.6% Fib zone), 174.2 (8/29 low).
• Overhead resistance: 182.4–182.7 (late session supply), 183.7–184.0 (hourly pivot), 185.0–186.6 (gap/supply shelf; intraday spike high 186.55), 189.8–191.2 (50%–61.8% Fib retrace shelf from the late Oct high), 193.9–196.0 (prior breakdown area and 38.2% Fib).

Moving averages and trend filters (estimates from visible data)

• 20-day SMA ~ 187–189: Price closed well below; near-term bearish pressure.
• 50-day SMA ~ 182–184: Price is hovering slightly below/at this zone; acts as immediate resistance overhead.
• 100-day SMA ~ 178–180: Price is testing this band, often a spot for reactionary buying in secular uptrends.
• 200-day SMA ~ 170–175: Intact below; secular trend still constructive above this band, but room exists for spikes toward it on panic days.
• Takeaway: Short-term trend bearish below 20/50SMA, but multi-SMA confluence 178–184 creates a mean-reversion battleground.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Basis (20SMA) ~ 188; lower band estimated ~ 178–179. Price tagged/pierced the lower band today. First tag after an expansion day typically invites a reflexive bounce toward the mid-band if sellers tire; sustained closes under the lower band signal trend acceleration. Given the volume spike and band touch, odds of a 1–2 day snapback toward 183–186 increase, provided 175–178 holds.

Oscillators

• RSI (14, daily): Likely in high-30s/low-40s after today’s dump; not deeply oversold on daily but approaching it. On intraday (60-min/15-min), RSI printed oversold sub-30 earlier and now diverges positively against price—supporting a bounce attempt.
• Stochastics (daily): Pinned in oversold with potential for a bullish cross on stabilization—often good for 1–3 day bounces in strong names.
• MACD (daily): Bearish and widening histogram—trend pressure persists; however, intraday MACD shows loss of downside momentum into the close.

Volume analytics

• Today’s volume is the highest in weeks (capitulation-like). Heavy distribution below VWAP, but late session volumes balanced and narrowed the tape—common into a stabilization day. OBV on daily likely rolled over but not broken relative to September–October base, suggesting corrective rather than structural weakness.

VWAP and intraday auction

• Session VWAP estimated ~ 188–190 given the heavy early trade near 195–193 followed by large time below. Price closed far beneath VWAP, indicative of strong seller control for the day. Next session, reclaiming intraday VWAP early (expected to start near open price) is a key tell; sustained trade above developing VWAP favors a squeeze toward 183–186.

Fibonacci mapping (swing Sep–Oct)

• Using swing low 170.3 (9/17) to swing high 212.2 (10/29):
  • 38.2%: ~196.2 (lost)
  • 50%: ~191.2 (lost)
  • 61.8%: ~186.3 (lost)
  • 78.6%: ~179.3 (tested today)
  • 88.6%: ~175.1 (next deep support)
• Interpretation: Price is probing the 78.6% retracement—often the “last support” before a full round-trip. Initial hold here commonly yields a reactive bounce back to 38.2–61.8% of the latest downswing (today’s 196→180 drop), which targets roughly 184–188. Failure opens a fast path to 175.

ATR and volatility regime

• Daily ATR(14) expanded to roughly 6–8 points recently; today’s true range (~16) indicates an elevated volatility spike. In the next 24h, a 6–9 point move from the open is plausible, supporting either a quick probe to 176–178 before bouncing to 183–186, or a sharp continuation toward 175 before stabilization.

ADX/DI (trend strength)

• ADX likely climbing into low-20s given the sequence of lower highs and today’s trend day. Rising ADX confirms trend strength but, after capitulation spikes, DI- dominance can get stretched and a countertrend bounce often emerges.

Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely near/above 182–186. Sub-cloud and under both baselines = bearish tactical bias. However, prices hugging/breaking the lower cloud boundary and then snapping back is a common mean-reversion behavior; initial resistance aligns with 183–186 (cloud underside/Kijun region).

Candlesticks and gaps

• Today: Long-bodied bearish “belt hold”/bearish marubozu-like candle from a gap-up open, finished near lows—clear distribution. Often, day 2 tests lower first, then either continues or prints a “hammer” if demand appears.
• Open gaps of interest: 186.6–189 area is a magnet if bounce initiates; 193.9–196 another, but that likely exceeds next 24h scope without a news catalyst.

Market profile/volume profile (observed)

• Visible high-volume nodes: 181–183 (October’s value area), 175–177 (August/September). Price closed in between, implying the market could seek acceptance in 181–183 first if buyers defend 178–179.

Elliott/Wave structure (heuristic)

• The decline from 10/29 high appears as an A–B–C or a 5-wave impulse down. Today’s acceleration resembles a wave 5 capitulation or C-wave exhaustion into the 78.6% retrace. This increases probability of a corrective bounce (wave (ii) or (B)) toward 183–186 before the next decision point.

Confluence summary

• Bullish factors for a 24h bounce: Test of 78.6% Fib (~179.3), tag of lower Bollinger band, intraday bullish momentum divergences, capitulation volume, proximity to the 100-day SMA zone, historical demand 176–182.
• Bearish risks for continuation: Strong trend day down, price under 20/50SMA and below session VWAP, MACD bearish, failure to reclaim 182–183 early could invite a quick slide to 175.

24-hour path scenarios

• Base case (55%): Early flush probes 177.5–179.0, buyers step in, price reclaims 182–183 and squeezes into 184.5–186.0 by end of next session.
• Bear case (30%): Weak open; 179 fails quickly; momentum resumes to 175–176 (88.6% Fib) before a late bounce to ~178–180; close sub-182.
• Bull extension (15%): Strong gap-stabilize; immediate reclaim of 182.7 and push toward 186.5–188; less likely without a catalyst but possible after capitulation.

Trade plan (tactical, next 24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into 177–179 demand for a reflexive bounce toward 184–186.
• Entry: Limit buy near 177.8 to capture an early liquidity sweep; alternative tactical entry on reclaim of 182.4–182.7 VWAP with tighter stop (not requested but noted).
• Take-profit: 184.8 (just below heavy resistance 185–186) to maximize fill probability on a bounce day.
• Risk framework (contextual, not part of asked outputs): Suggested stop under 175.0 (88.6% Fib and prior demand) for swing traders; intraday tighter stops 176.2 depending on fill. R:R from 177.8→184.8 ≈ +7.0 vs risk to 175 ≈ -2.8 (roughly 2.5:1).

Decision rationale

• The confluence of major retracement support, lower-band tag, capitulation volume, and nascent intraday divergences suggests tactically skewed odds for a 1-day mean-reversion bounce, provided 175–178 holds on the morning flush. Hence: Buy with a limit under market and harvest into the 184–186 supply shelf within 24 hours.