NVIDIA’s Relentless Rally: Why $165 Is in Sight—Aggressive Buy-the-Dip Setup After Bullish Consolidation

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of 2025-07-08

1. Trend and Pattern Recognition

Daily Trend Analysis (4-month view)

• Long-term uptrend: From March ($110 area) to July ($160), NVDA has shown a decisive uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
• Acceleration: The trend notably accelerated after mid-May, with rapid price appreciation from the $130s to $160 level, accompanied by strong increasing volume and some gap-up action on large up days, confirming bullish institutional participation.
• Recent consolidation: Over the last week, NVDA consolidated between ~$157 and $160 after a meteoric rise, indicative of a healthy pause and potential flag/pennant continuation (bull flag).
• No evidence of reversal: There are no clear topping reversal patterns (like head and shoulders or double top) visible yet.

2. Support and Resistance Zones

• Immediate support: $157.30–$158.00 (recent lows, prior breakout zone).
• Primary resistance: $160 (current area, acting as consolidation ceiling).
• Next psychological resistance: $165, then $170 (round numbers above recent highs).
• Gap support: If a strong move down occurs, $153–$155 from July 1–2 and $146–$148 from late June serve as deeper supports.

3. Volume Analysis

• Rising volume on up-moves: The last major surge from $147 to $155 to $160 occurred on increasing volume, confirming the trend’s health.
• Today’s session: After a slightly choppy opening, buying volume increased into the $160 area, showing strong buyer interest despite the price pausing at resistance.

4. Volatility and Momentum

• ATR (Average True Range): The recent daily ranges have expanded—e.g., intraday swings from $158.39 to $160.22, suggesting heightened volatility often preceding trend continuation.
• RSI: While exact values can’t be calculated from close prices alone, the strong, steady gains and brief consolidations likely keep the RSI elevated (near 65–75), signaling a strong uptrend, yet not so extended as to guarantee imminent reversal.
• MACD: By comparing recent price bursts and slight consolidation, the signal is likely still bullish as upward momentum is dominant, although starting to flatten, suggesting a pause or digestion phase.

5. Candlestick and Intraday Pattern Analysis

• Tight candles at $159–$160: The recent hours show tight-ranged candles consolidating above $159.5—a classic bullish continuation setup (base above the old highs).
• No abrupt reversal signals: No doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing patterns. If anything, minor lower wicks suggest bids are absorbing any selling-dips intraday.

6. Moving Averages

• 20/50-Day MAs (Estimated): Both should now be clustered in the $148–$155 range; stock is trading well above, confirming bullish posture and momentum. No convergence or risk of moving average death-cross patterns.

7. Fibonacci Extension and Retracement

• Measured move: Recent breakout point ($147.90) + rally depth ($10+) —> Target range of $160–$165 as next measured move objective, right in line with current price action.
• No deep retracements: Price does not signal a major need to pull back deeply; 23–38% retracement points are ~$154–$157, aligning with strong support.

8. Order Flow and Market Sentiment

• Tightly held at highs: No panic selling at the highs, and price remains heavy with buyers, with no broad-volume spikes at the top (which might suggest blow-off or distribution). Buyers are buying strength, not weakness.
• Options flow and gamma squeeze (Implied): With such a relentless advance, and typical institutional interest, implied volatility in the options market may be elevated—helping pin the stock near round numbers until either a catalyst or extended follow-through triggers another move.

9. Elliott Wave Perspective

• Current wave positioning: The rally from $147 to $160 appears impulsive (likely a wave 3 within the larger degree). Current pause could be a wave 4 consolidation, hinting at one more upside push (wave 5) potentially reaching $164–$165 zone within the next session or two.

10. Summary of Techniques & Synthesis

• Trend is up, momentum strong, little overhead supply at all-time highs.
• Consolidation near resistance is bullish, not distribution.
• Potential for minor dips toward $158.5–$159, likely to be bought rapidly.
• Upside target for next 24 hours: $163–$165 based on measured move, Fibonacci, and flag breakout projection.
• **Downside risk limited to $157.5–$158, where strong buyers lurk. If this breaks, look to $154–$155.
• Risk/Reward Favours Buying Any Dips: Probability of upside breakout in the next 24 hours is higher than breakdown, as there’s no evidence of distribution or exhaustion yet.

Final Conclusion

• This is an aggressive buy-the-dip setup: Momentum, trend structure, and volume all support a renewed breakout. Entering modestly below $160 offers attractive risk/reward for a move toward $163–$165. If $158 fails, stop out and reassess, but base case is for trend continuation.

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Suggested Trade Plan:

• Decision: BUY (Long Position)
• Open Price (Optimal Entry): $159.40 (on any minor intraday dip; can scale from $159.00–$159.40)
• Target (Take Profit): $164.50 (just below forecasted resistance, to ensure fill before potential stalling)

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Stop loss (not asked, but for completeness): $157.70 (below support and base of recent breakout, to avoid deeper correction exposure).