NVDA: Double-Bottom at 178 with a Liquidity Sweep — Eyeing a 24h VWAP Recapture Toward 185

Snapshot and context

• Ticker: NVDA | Currency: $ | Current price: 180.26 (as of 2025-11-26 22:00 UTC)
• 1D trend since late Oct: swing high 212.19 (10/29), followed by a sequence of lower highs/lows into 177–180 area. Heavy November distribution with multiple high-volume down days.
• Today’s intraday tape (11/26): VWAP hovered ~180.7–180.9 most of the session. Notable 21:00 UTC liquidity sweep (print range 167.54–185.55) with quick reversion to ~179.7–180; suggests stop-hunt/liquidity grab rather than sustained move. Close ~180.26.

Price action and structure

• Downward channel from 10/29 peak: lower highs near 206–200–193–186, lower lows to 177–178. Price currently near the lower third of that channel, testing a multi-touch support shelf 177–178 (11/21, 11/25) with a modest bounce today.
• Potential W/double-bottom forming at 178–179: 11/21 low 178.88 and 11/25 low 177.82; 11/26 closes back above 180. Neckline ~182.5–183 (11/24 close 182.55 and a cluster of 10/16–10/23 closes 180–183). A break/hold over 182.5 would confirm a short-term reversal aim toward 185–187.
• Overhead supply zones: 185.9 (23.6% Fib), 190.9 (38.2% Fib), 195 (50% Fib) derived from 10/29 high 212.19 to 11/25 low 177.82. The 185–191 band is the first major resistance shelf.

Key levels (multi-method confluence)

• Supports: 177.8–178.5 (double-bottom shelf and S1 pivot proximity), 175.8 (S2 pivot), 172–173.5 (Sept congestion), 170 (psychological).
• Resistances: 182.5–183 (neckline/R1 pivot 182.7), 185.1–186 (R2 pivot 185.1 and 23.6% Fib 185.9), 190.9 (38.2% Fib), 195 (50% Fib), 199–200 (61.8% Fib/psychological), 203–206 (10/28–10/31 supply), 212 (swing high).
• Classical floor pivots from today (H=182.91, L=178.24, C=180.26):
  • P = 180.47
  • R1 = 182.70, R2 = 185.14, R3 = 187.37
  • S1 = 178.03, S2 = 175.80, S3 = 173.36

Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA ≈ 190.0 (calc from the last 20 closes). Price (180.3) is ~5% below the 20D mean, indicating short-term bearish deviation and room for mean reversion.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ 184–186; price is below the 50D. Stack: Price < 50D < ~20D (20D still elevated from Oct spike) reflects a pullback phase after a strong prior up-leg; near-term trend is down while the intermediate backdrop is flattening.
• 100D SMA (est.) ≈ 178–181; price hovering near it, reinforcing 177–181 as an important battleground.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 39 (estimated). Sloped up slightly vs 11/25 despite price retest of lows — mild bullish divergence at the 177–178 double-bottom zone. Bias: a bounce attempt is more likely than a fresh breakdown in the next 24h unless support decisively fails.
• MACD (12,26,9): below zero, but histogram likely contracting (bearish momentum fading). A bullish histogram inflection would align with a push through 182.5–183.
• Stochastics: cycling out of oversold territory; %K likely crossing above %D on daily — supportive of a short-term pop toward the first resistance band.
• MFI: likely mid-30s to low-40s given recent selling and today’s stabilization — consistent with “early bounce” conditions.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily estimated ~7.5–9.0 after November’s wide ranges. A 24h move of 5–7 points is plausible; a full ATR stretch could challenge R2 (185.1) and even R3 (187.4) on a strong day.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline ~190; lower band likely mid-170s. Price tagging/near lower band with bands expanded suggests volatility expansion with mean-reversion potential toward 183–186 initially (not necessarily to the 20D midline in 24h, but toward the lower-to-middle band spread).

Volume/flow and market profile cues

• Distribution days: 11/20–11/21 heavy selling (343M/347M shares) pushed price to the 177–179 shelf. 11/25 sell pressure still elevated (321M) on a marginal new swing low (177.82) — but follow-through selling today was limited; buyers defended 178–179 on ordinary volatility, hinting at seller fatigue.
• OBV bias: down since late Oct; however, today’s stabilization with that 21:00 UTC liquidity sweep (quick rejection of prints both below 170 and above 185) is characteristic of stop-clearing before a directionally cleaner session. Often precedes a squeeze toward nearby resistance (182.5–185).
• VWAP (today) ~180.8; price finished just under it. Early next session, a VWAP recapture is a common trigger for momentum buyers.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Price is below Tenkan and Kijun, and below the Cloud. That is a bearish broader-state regime. However, Tenkan is not dramatically above price (fast-line proximity), making a Tenkan tap toward ~183–185 feasible inside 24h if momentum turns.

Pattern diagnostics

• Double-bottom/W attempt at 178 with a neckline ~182.5. Measured move from 178 low to 182.5 neckline (~4.5) projects to ~187 on a clean break — consistent with pivot R3 187.4. 24h probability favors at least a test of neckline and potentially R1/R2 if VWAP is reclaimed early.
• Candle behavior: today’s intraday range was moderate until the 21:00 UTC sweep created a long lower- and upper-tail print, then normalized around 180. That wickiness supports the liquidity sweep hypothesis and tends to support a near-term directional move — lean higher given the prior oversold setup.

Fibonacci context (10/29 high 212.19 → 11/25 low 177.82)

• 23.6%: 185.93 (first bounce target and strong resistance)
• 38.2%: 190.96 (deeper resistance, outside a typical 24h bounce unless momentum accelerates)
• 50%: 195.00 (unlikely within 24h without a catalyst)
• 61.8%: 199.05 (overhead supply; multiple prior pivots near 199–201)

Quant-style scenario map for next 24 hours

• Bullish bounce (55–60%): Early dip holds S1 178.0–178.5, VWAP recapture above ~180.7, neckline break 182.5 leads to R1 182.7; follow-through tests R2 185.1; stretch case R3 ~187.4 if momentum/short-covering intensifies.
• Range consolidation (25–30%): 178–182 chop under the neckline; indecisive day ahead of the holiday/weekend, closing near 180–182.
• Breakdown (15–20%): Failure at open leads to sub-178; S2 175.8 tested; a daily close below 176.5 opens 173–174 and risks revisiting the September band around 170–172.

Confluence that favors a tactical long

• Support shelf confluence (177–178) + RSI divergence + price near lower Bollinger band with ATR expanded.
• Pivot math: Today’s P = 180.47 places R1 182.7 and R2 185.1 within an achievable 24h ATR move from current price.
• Liquidity sweep signal at 21:00 UTC followed by stabilization near 180; often precedes a directional session higher when preceding trend is down and oscillators are oversold.

Risk and invalidation (for context)

• Invalidation on a sustained break below 176.7 (beneath S2 175.8 on intraday closes would fully negate the bounce thesis). If seeking a tight tactical stop, 176.7–177.2 is a pragmatic band; if wider, 175.5 allows for noise to S2.

24h price path expectation

• Base case: Early probe lower to 178.5–179.5, quick reclaim of 180.5–181, push through 182.5 neckline, tag R1 182.7, and reach toward R2 185.1 by late session. Probability-weighted close 182–184.
• Stretch: Momentum day with short covering prints 186–187.
• Risk case: Loss of 178 shelf leads to 176, possibly 175.8 S2.

Trading plan synthesis

• Setup: Buy pullback close to 179.8–180.0, targeting a 24h push into the 185.1–186 resistance band (first take-profit near pivot R2 and 23.6% Fib cluster).