NVDA: Buy the Dip Into 189s for a Run at 195s as the Ascending Triangle Loads a Breakout

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish, but expecting an early dip/consolidation before a breakout attempt. Best risk/reward is buying a pullback into 189.2–189.8 with a target into 195s.
• Structure: From the 12/17 swing low (170.94), price has printed higher lows and higher highs, forming an ascending triangle under 192–193 resistance. Today’s session tapped 192.69 and faded to 190.53, leaving a long upper wick near resistance; short-term digestion is likely before another push.
• Key levels next session (derived from 12/26 H/L/C 192.69/189.61/190.53): Pivot P 190.94, S1 189.20, S2 187.86, S3 186.12; R1 192.28, R2 194.02, R3 195.36.

Data sanity check

• Intraday series shows a 21:00 “bad tick” (201.52/177.98, zero reported volume). I’m treating that candle as erroneous and excluding it from inference. The actionable intraday range is 189.61–192.69 with heavy distribution on the 20:30 bar.

Multi-timeframe price action and patterns

1. Trend and market structure (daily)

• Uptrend resumption off 12/17 low (170.94): HLs at 12/19 (180.99), 12/22 (183.69), 12/24 (188.61) and HH today (intraday 192.69). This sketches an ascending triangle under a flat-ish ceiling at 192–193.
• Breakout zone: 192.7–193.0. A decisive 30–60 min close above opens room to 195.3–196.5, then 200+ later.

2. Intraday structure (12/26)

• Opening drive to 191.58, continuation to 192.69, then afternoon fade below intraday VWAP (est. ~191.2), with the heaviest hour (20:30) closing at 190.54. That sequence typically signals day-end profit taking into resistance, not trend reversal.

Key technical indicators and how they inform the next move

1. Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 181.3 (calc from last 20 closes). Price at 190.5 is ~+5% above: short-term trend positive.
• 50-day SMA (approx) in mid-183–185 region given Oct–Dec closes; price is above: medium-term trend supportive.
• 200-day SMA (approx ~180): price above: long-term trend intact.
• Read-through: Bullish alignment; pullbacks to 186–188 likely get bought before the next leg.

2. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily estimated mid/upper 60s after a 7-session +11% climb from 170.94. Not overbought but warm; prone to brief cool-offs around resistance.
• MACD daily: Positive and rising since ~12/19 cross; histogram expanding. Momentum supports breakout attempts after minor dips.
• Stochastics daily: Likely high 70s/80s; a shallow pullback would reset it without breaking trend.

3. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily approx 5–6. Expect next-day range ≈ $5–6 from reference (2.5–3.0%).
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 181.3; upper band estimated near 190–191. Today tagged/peeped above upper band and recoiled—classic near-term mean reversion tell. A slight dip toward 189–190 is probable before another push.
• Keltner Channels (20,ATR1): Price near upper channel; often resolves with sideways/down drift into the mid-channel before trend continuation.

4. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 29 high to Dec 17 low)

• Range: 212.19 → 170.94. Key retracements from the 170.94 low:
  • 38.2%: 186.71 (acted as support on 12/23–12/24 zone)
  • 50%: 191.57 (today’s rejection zone)
  • 61.8%: 196.45 (next upside magnet on breakout)
• Read-through: Price is orbiting the 50% pivot; acceptance above 191.6 points to 196.4.

5. Classical pivots (next session from 12/26 H/L/C)

• P 190.94, S1 189.20, S2 187.86, S3 186.12; R1 192.28, R2 194.02, R3 195.36.
• Expect magnets: Early probe into S1 (189.2±) if futures are flat-to-soft; that’s the buy zone. Upside targets scale through R1→R2→R3.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price > cloud; Tenkan (9) ~ mid- to high-180s; Kijun (26) low-180s. Wide Tenkan/Kijun spread implies strong trend but vulnerability to a Tenkan pullback (185–187) if sellers press. With current structure, shallow pullback (189–188.5) is more likely.

7. VWAP/Order flow

• Session VWAP ~191.2 with close 190.5 below it—late-session distribution. However, the uptrend day count and strong advance from 12/17 increase the odds that dips are absorbed above 188.6.

8. Volume profile (visual approximation)

• Prominent volume shelves: 183–186 and 188–189. A bid tends to appear near 188.6–189.2 (Dec 24 close and today’s S1), providing a tactical long entry.

9. Candlestick reads

• Today: Small green body with a long upper shadow into 192.7 and close near 190.5—an “upper wick at resistance” (not a full shooting star since it closed green). Suggests near-term supply at 192–193, followed by digestion.
• Prior days: 12/23 wide-range up candle (trend day) and 12/24 tight range near highs (coiling). The sequence favors continuation post-dip.

10. DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• After a 7–8-bar up sequence from 12/17, a 1–2 bar pause/dip commonly prints near half-back (191.6), aligning with today’s rejection. Supports the buy-the-dip stance before continuation.

11. Elliott Wave sketch (tactical)

• From 170.94: Minor impulsive count likely completed or nearing completion with a 5th intraday poke to 192.7. ABC pullback scope: A to ~189.5–188.6, B back toward 191.5–192, C shallow into 188.6–187.9 max before next impulse toward 195–197. This roadmap fits the pivots/Fibs.

12. Seasonality/context

• Year-end “Santa rally” flow and performance-chasing into new week bolster dip-buying appetite unless a macro shock intervenes.

Scenarios next 24h (with levels and likelihood)

• Base case (55%): Early fade into 189.2–189.8 (S1/pullback), stabilize, then grind higher through 191.6 pivot; afternoon test of 192.3 (R1). If volume expands on the push, extension to 194.0 (R2) and possibly 195.3 (R3). Close in 193–195 zone.
• Bull case (25%): Gap-and-go or strong breadth: quick reclaim of 191.6, break 192.7, momentum run to 195.3–196.5 (61.8% Fib), tagging 195s by the close. Limited pullback depth to ~190.7 pivot.
• Bear case (20%): Supply persists: lose 189.2 (S1) on volume; probe 187.9 (S2) and maybe 186.1 (S3). Structure remains higher-timeframe bullish unless 186 breaks decisively; below 186, risk shifts to a deeper test of 183.7–184.7.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Rationale: Uptrend across MAs, constructive ascending triangle, MACD positive, RSI not extreme, and the confluence of S1 (189.2), 12/24 close (188.61), and demand shelf offers a high-quality dip entry. Targets cluster at R2–R3 and the 61.8% Fib (196.45).
• Entry: Buy limit at 189.20 (Pivot S1) to exploit likely early dip. If not filled and price breaks 192.7 with volume, an alternative breakout add/entry is above 192.8, targeting 195.3–196.5 (not part of the single-price instruction, but noted).
• Profit target (next 24h): 195.40 (near R3; just under 195.6/195.9 supply to increase fill odds). This is within 1×ATR from entry and aligns with historical resistance.
• Risk control (not part of requested fields but essential): Suggested stop ~186.30 (below S3 and 38.2% Fib 186.71). Risk ≈ $2.90; reward ≈ $6.20; R:R ~2.1:1. If momentum is weak at 192, consider partial at 194.0 (R2) and trail remainder.

Invalidation and what would change my mind

• A decisive daily or multi-hour close below 186.5 would negate the ascending triangle, put price back inside the prior value area, and open 183.7–182.0. In that case the long setup is invalid for this 24h window.

Bottom line

• Expect a buyable dip toward 189.2–189.8, followed by a push into 194–195.5 if 191.6 is reclaimed. Breakout above 192.7 unlocks 195.3–196.5. My call: Buy the pullback, target 195.4 within the next session’s range.