NVDA Coils Beneath 185: Set for a Neckline Test and Upside Probe Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical roadmap (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Primary swing: Post-earnings spike to 212.19 (10/29) followed by a corrective downtrend into 169.55 (11/25). Since then, price is constructing a basing pattern with higher lows.
• Recent sequence: 11/25 low 169.55 (capitulation), 11/28 close 177.00, 12/1 close 179.92, 12/2 close 181.46, 12/3 close 179.59, 12/4 close 183.38. Lows have stair-stepped up since 12/1 (173.68 → 179.11 → 179.97). This is constructive.
• Key levels: • Immediate support: 182.6–183.0 (intraday volume node/VWAP zone), 181.0–181.5 (intraday pivot shelf), round 180.0, deeper 177.0/176.5, and 173.7. • Immediate resistance: 184.5 (today’s intraday cap), 185.7–186.6 (12/2 high 185.66; 10/24 close 186.26), 188.3–189.1, 192.2–195, and gap-memory zone up to 201.
• Pattern: A potential inverse head-and-shoulders off the 11/25 low with a neckline in the 183.5–184.5 band. Today’s close is pressing that neckline; a clean push through 184.5–185 likely unleashes a momentum run toward 186.5–188 near term.

2. Price action (Intraday 12/4)

• Ranged higher through the session: 180.86 open drive, trend to 184.51 high, consolidating 182.3–183.6 into the close.
• Intraday VWAP tracked ~183; late-day holds above VWAP indicate buyer control into the close. The 183.3–183.6 zone acted as value acceptance.
• Liquidity pockets: Low-volume pocket from ~184.5 to ~186 that could facilitate a swift expansion if 184.5 breaks on volume.

3. Moving averages and slope analysis

• 10-day SMA ≈ 180.15 and rising; price > 10D (short-term bullish).
• 20-day SMA ≈ 184.76; price just below it (medium-term still a headwind). Expect this to flatten then turn up if price sustains >185.
• 50-day SMA (approx) hovering in the low 180s; price has reclaimed it convincingly, shifting bias from distribution to accumulation.
• Interpretation: Short-term trend up, testing the underside of the 20D mean. A close above ~185 will flip the 20D mean test into a bullish reversion/continuation.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 43–45: off lows, not overbought; room to run before hitting 60–70 zones.
• MACD (daily) has been below zero since mid-November but is curling higher; histogram likely contracting toward a bullish cross within days. On intraday 60-min, momentum is already positive.
• Takeaway: Momentum turning up from neutral/bearish to constructive; confirms basing-to-early-impulse phase.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 5.0; expected day range ~ ±2.7%. This supports a plausible 183 → 186/187 move in a single session if momentum persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~ 184.8; price a hair below mid, with bands still relatively wide from November’s shock but narrowing. A push above mid-band is typically a trigger for mean-reversion continuation toward the upper band (est. low 190s) over multiple days; near-term cap remains 186–188.
• Keltner (20,2*ATR): Mid ~184.8, upper ~194.8, lower ~174.8; price mid-channel with upside headroom.

6. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ (185.66 high + 169.55 low)/2 = 177.6; price above Tenkan (short-term constructive support).
• Kijun (26) ≈ (212.19 high + 169.55 low)/2 = 190.9; price below Kijun (medium-term trend still not fully repaired).
• Cloud likely overhead from the October spike; current configuration is “repair phase”: price > Tenkan but < Kijun/cloud. Typical path: test neckline → test Kijun over ensuing sessions if breakout holds.

7. Fibonacci mapping of the corrective leg

• Swing: 10/29 high 212.19 → 11/25 low 169.55; range = 42.64.
• Key retracements: 0.382 = 185.84; 0.5 = 190.87; 0.618 = 195.90.
• Current price 183.38 is just below the 0.382 at 185.84. Expect first strong resistance 185.8–186.6. A decisive reclaim of 185.8 opens a magnet toward 190.5–191 (0.5) over coming sessions; next 24 hours likely caps near 186–187 unless a breakout accelerates.

8. Classical pivots for next session (calculated from 12/4 H/L/C: 184.515/179.97/183.38)

• Pivot P ≈ 182.62
• R1 ≈ 185.27; R2 ≈ 187.17; R3 ≈ 189.82
• S1 ≈ 180.73; S2 ≈ 178.08; S3 ≈ 175.43
• Confluence: R1 (185.27) aligns just below the 0.382 fib (185.84) and 12/2 high (185.66). Expect programmatic selling to show up there on first touch; a second drive could extend to R2 (187.17).

9. Volume profile and VWAP

• Recent high-volume node: 180–182.5 (demand re-emerges on dips).
• Today’s value: 183–183.6 acceptance with VWAP near 183.
• If price holds above session VWAP early tomorrow and reclaims 184.5, the low-volume pocket to ~186 may fill quickly.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Inverse H&S hypothesis: Head 169.6 (11/25), shoulders ~173.7–177.0 (12/1, 11/28), neckline 183.5–184.5. A measured move on a convincing breakout implies a larger target near 197; for the next 24 hours, the neckline break should be judged by follow-through to 185.7–186.5.
• Ascending triangle (micro): Base rising from ~180 with flat supply ~184.5. Pressure buildup favors upside resolution, particularly with higher lows and improving momentum.

11. Mean-reversion and z-score

• Z to 20D SMA: (183.38 − 184.76) / ~5 ≈ −0.28. Slightly below the mean; odds favor a reversion attempt to the mean/just above (185 area) as long as support holds.

12. Scenario analysis (24-hour horizon)

• Base case (55%): Early dip into 182.6–183.0 gets bought; drive through 184.5 neckline; first stall near R1/Fib 185.3–185.9; extension attempt toward 186.4–187.1 if breadth is supportive. Close near 185.5–186.5.
• Bearish alt (30%): Failure at 184.5; rotation back below 183 and VWAP, probing S1 180.7–181.5. Buyers defend 180–181 and snap back to 183 area into the close (range day).
• Tail risk (15%): Macro headline gap. Downside gap under 180 opens a test of 178.1 (S2); upside gap over 186 ignites a squeeze to ~187.2–188.3.

13. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Mildly bullish for the next 24 hours with well-defined resistance overhead. Favor buy-the-dip into 182.6–183.0 with confirmation above VWAP.
• Entry plan: Limit near 183.00 (pullback entry). Optional breakout add over 184.60 if volume expands (to participate if pullback doesn’t fill).
• Initial take-profit: 186.4 (below clustered resistances: R1 185.3, Fib 185.8, 12/2 swing 185.7; using an overshoot to harvest above R1 but before heavy 186.6 supply).
• Protective stop (for risk framing): 181.20 (below S1 cluster/Thursday’s intraday shelf). Risk ≈ 1.8–1.9; reward ≈ 3.4; R:R ≈ 1.8:1 on the base position.
• Invalidations: Hourly close below 181 undermines the higher-low structure; daily failure back under 180.0 returns control to sellers.

14. Synthesis

• Confluences for upside: higher lows since 12/1, price > 10D SMA, intraday VWAP hold, neckline test at 184.5, momentum turning up, pivot R1/Fib cluster at 185–186 suggests reachable near-term target.
• Headwinds: 20D SMA overhead at ~184.8 and the 0.382 Fib at ~185.8; medium-term trend (Ichimoku Kijun ~190.9) still above price—expect sellers to show near 186.
• Net: Probabilistic tilt to the upside for the next session, but respect nearby resistance. Best expectancy comes from dip buys into 182.6–183.0 aiming for 186.4.

Forecast (next 24 hours): Bias for an upswing into 185.3–186.4 with intraday whipsaws. Expect a test and partial breakout of 184.5; fade strength above 186.5 unless volume expands materially.