NVDA poised for a 24‑hour reflex rally: buying the 186–188 demand to sell into R1 ~195

Comprehensive multi‑factor technical read on NVDA over daily and intraday horizons, with a 24‑hour trading plan.

1. Price action and context

• Post-gap run-up and rollover: After the late-October breakout to 212.19 (10/29), NVDA failed to extend, carving a lower high at 206.88 (11/03) and accelerating lower into 11/06. This confirms a short-term downtrend within a still-intact higher-timeframe uptrend.
• 11/06 session: Opened ~196.35, sold hard to 186.38, rallied to ~190–191, and closed 188.08 on heavy volume. After-hours printed as high as ~195.21 but was rejected, last ~189.27. This shows dip-buying interest at 186–188 but clear supply above 193–196.
• Gap dynamics: The 10/28 gap (prior close 191.49 to open 193.05) is now fully filled and slightly undercut. Overhead unfilled gap from 11/03 open 208.08 vs 10/31 close 202.49 remains a magnet longer-term but is meaningful resistance near-term.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~191–192. Price (188–189) is now below the 20-SMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~182–185. Price remains near/just above this band, suggesting the intermediate uptrend is not broken.
• 200-day SMA (approx): mid-to-high 170s. Longer-term trend still up. Interpretation: Short-term trend bearish; intermediate/long-term trends constructive. Positioning for a tactical mean-reversion bounce is reasonable if 186–188 holds.

3. Support, resistance, market structure

• Immediate support: 186.4–186.8 (11/06 intraday low and 78.6% retracement cluster, see Fib below). Below that: 183.8 (S1 pivot), then 182–183 (October congestion), then 179.5 (S2 pivot) and 178–180 shelf.
• Immediate resistance: 190.7–191.5 (daily pivot/VWAP zone), 193–196 (breakdown supply; includes 61.8–78.6 fib cluster vs the prior upleg and today’s R1), then 201–203 (R2 and underside of late-Oct range), and 206–208 (gap window).
• Structure: Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 10/29 makes bounces sell zones unless reclaimed levels hold. A base above ~188 with a push through ~191.5–193 would support a 24h rebound into 194–196.

4. Volume and volatility

• Volume: 11/06 total ~219M, elevated vs recent days but below the 10/28–29 earnings frenzy, signaling strong distribution with responsive buying off the lows (evidenced by intraday rebound).
• ATR(14) (est.): ~5.5–6.0 and expanding, implying wider ranges and opportunity for 24h swing. Interpretation: Elevated volatility post-selloff often precedes reflexive rallies toward intraday VWAP/pivot zones.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): mid/upper 30s to ~40 after a 12% pullback, approaching oversold but not extreme. This favors a bounce but not necessarily a full trend reversal.
• Stochastics: Likely sub-20 and curling; an early buy signal if %K crosses %D from oversold on the daily/4H frames. Interpretation: Oscillators support mean reversion into resistance within 24h.

6. MACD

• Daily MACD crossed bearish early November; histogram negative and recently deepened. However, with price tagging deeper retracement levels, short-term positive divergence may form on intraday frames if 186–188 holds. Interpretation: Trend momentum down, but ripe for a counter-trend rally toward 191–195 before reassessing.

7. Bollinger Bands and Keltner

• BB(20,2): Mid-band ~191–192; lower band likely ~183–185. 11/06 close sits near the lower half of the band after a lower-band tag. Keltner channels likely breached on the downside intraday, which often mean-reverts back toward the 20EMA/mid-band. Interpretation: Expect snapback toward 191–193; stretch to 195 possible if momentum builds.

8. Fibonacci analysis

• From 10/14–15 low (~179.8–180.0) to 10/29 high (212.19): key retracements from top: 38.2% ~199.8, 50% ~196.1, 61.8% ~192.4, 78.6% ~186.8. Price sliced through 50% and 61.8% and found bids almost exactly at 78.6% (intraday low 186.38) — classic “last-stand” retracement support.
• From 9/30 pivot (186.58) to 10/29 high (212.19), the 78.6% and 88.6% retracements sit near 190.6 and 189.2, clustering around current price. Interpretation: Strong Fibonacci confluence 186.8–190.6 suggests a bounce zone; losing 186 decisively opens 183.8/179.5.

9. Candles and intraday microstructure (tape)

• Daily 11/06: Wide-range bearish candle closing weak, but with heavy-volume flush and stabilization above 186—often precursor to a reflex rally next session.
• Intraday 11/06: Persistent morning selling, afternoon basing 186.6–190.5, and after-hours spike rejection at ~195.2. This maps a clear supply zone 193–196 and demand at 186–188. Interpretation: Favor buying near demand with intent to sell into supply.

10. Pivots for next session (derived from 11/06 H/L/C)

• Pivot (PP): ~190.69
• R1: ~195.01; R2: ~201.93
• S1: ~183.77; S2: ~179.45 Interpretation: Expect magnet action around PP ~190.7. If reclaimed and held, R1 ~195 is the 24h upside attractor.

11. VWAP

• 11/06 session VWAP likely ~191–192 given early trading near ~196 and heavy volume on the way down; price closed below. Reclaiming session VWAP in the next regular session would confirm buyers’ control for a push into 193–195.

12. Elliott/deMark color

• Corrective A-B-C from 10/29 high: A to ~202.5 (10/31), B to ~206.9 (11/03), C to ~186.4 (11/06). C ≈ 2.2× A — a typical extension and a plausible completion, aligning with the 78.6% retracement.
• DeMark-style exhaustion likely near a 9-count on the daily; exact count aside, conditions resemble downside exhaustion.

13. Scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Base case (~55%): Early dip/retest toward 187–188 attracts buyers; reclaim PP ~190.7, grind to 191.5–193, with extension toward R1 ~195 on momentum. Close near 193–195.
• Bear case (~30%): Failure under 190; breakdown below 186.4 triggers stops, tests S1 ~183.8 then 182–183. Close 183–186.
• Bull extension (~15%): Strong open >192–193 with sustained VWAP hold; swift push to 195–197.50; 201 (R2) unlikely in 24h without a catalyst.

14. Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Buy the dip into 187–188 with a target to sell into R1 supply ~195.
• Optimal entry: Limit near 188.2 (just above demand cluster to improve fill probability). If strong open >192 and sustained, secondary momentum entry on pullback to ~191.5–192 toward the same 194–195 target.
• Profit target (24h): 194.9–195.2 (R1/past rejection zone). Conservative partial at 191.5–193 if momentum stalls.
• Invalidation (stop, not part of the output fields but recommended): Below 183.7 (S1) on a closing/intraday basis depending on risk tolerance. Alternative tighter stop: below 185.9 if seeking ~2:1 R:R.
• Risk/Reward (entry 188.2, TP 194.9, stop 183.7): Reward ≈ +6.7; risk ≈ −4.5; R:R ≈ 1.5:1, acceptable given bounce odds and volatility.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• The confluence of 78.6% retracement support (≈186.8), pivot/VWAP magnet at ~190–191, and visible demand at 186–188 supports a tactical long for a rebound to 194–195 over the next 24 hours. Overhead supply at 193–196 likely caps the move initially; reassess above 195 for potential 196–197.5 extension. A decisive break and hold below 186 invalidates the bounce and points to 183.8/182 next.