NVDA Springs Off Support: Setup for a 24-Hour Push Toward 183–185

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Mildly bullish with a buy-the-dip edge. Expect a drift toward 182–184 if 178–179 support holds; upside cap near 184.6–186.2. Estimated 24h range: 175.6–184.6 (with tail to 171.3 if risk-off resumes).
• Rationale: Multiple-support confluence around 178–179 (hourly VWAP region, prior intraday pivot, lower Bollinger vicinity) + bullish hammer-like daily candle after a gap-down, heavy-volume absorption, and positive mean-reversion setup from the lower band. Key near-term resistance stack sits at 182.3 (R1), 183.9 (38.2% Fib), and 184.6 (R2).

Market structure and trend

• Higher timeframe structure (daily): After the late-October breakout to 201–207, NVDA corrected sharply into late November, probing a major demand area 169–178. Recent candles show basing between ~177 and ~183. Today’s session printed a long lower shadow (low 173.68) and closed strong at 179.92, indicative of dip buying and potential spring-type action.
• Support and resistance:
  • Supports: 178.6–179.0 (intraday shelf/VWAP zone), 175.6 (daily S1 pivot), 173.7–174.0 (today’s low zone/older pivot), 171.3 (S2), 169.0 (S3/November capitulation area).
  • Resistances: 181.6–182.3 (supply + R1), 183.8–184.6 (Fib 38.2% from 207→169.55 and R2), 186.6–188.9 (prior pivot/cluster and R3 proximity), 190–192.7 (round number and 61.8% Fib).
• Price action tells: A gap-down open followed by strong intraday recovery and close near highs relative to the day’s range suggests absorption of supply. The late-session dip to ~175.84 and swift reclaim into the close shows responsive buyers.

Volume and order flow

• Daily volume 12/01: ~184.6M, materially above several recent sessions, on a green close. Volume increase with a reclaim off lows hints at accumulation rather than distribution.
• Prior heavy-volume down days (Nov 20–21, Nov 25) likely marked capitulation; subsequent sessions show higher lows in the 176–178 area and better dip responsiveness.

Moving averages

• 20-day SMA ≈ 187.6 (price below; short-term trend still down).
• 50-day SMA ≈ 181–183 (price near/just below; this band is immediate resistance).
• 200-day SMA ≈ mid-to-high 170s (price around/above; long-term uptrend intact).
• Read: Price between 200D and 50D, below 20D—classic mean-reversion zone; a bounce toward 50D/20D bands is plausible if support holds.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14, daily): Estimated low-to-mid 40s, recovering from prior lows—no longer oversold, but with upside room before overbought (no momentum constraints to a bounce).
• MACD (daily): Likely negative but flattening; histogram improving after today’s reversal—early momentum inflection consistent with short-term upside follow-through.
• Stochastic (daily): Coming up from lower band; supports tactical mean-reversion long.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: ~7–8. Expected one-day move roughly ±$7–8 from 179.9 implies 172–188 envelope.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 187.6, lower ≈ 177–178. Price rebounded off/near the lower band—typical mean-reversion setup targeting the mid-band area (first step is testing 182–184).

Ichimoku (daily, approximate)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ 182.8; Kijun (26) likely ~183–185. Price at 179.9 sits below both—resistance ahead, but a quick test of Tenkan is common after a spring-like day.

Fibonacci framework

• Using swing 207.04 high to 169.55 low:
  • 38.2% = 183.87 (first major retrace target/resistance),
  • 50% = 188.30 (confluence with R3 cluster zone),
  • 61.8% = 192.73 (secondary, beyond 24h scope unless a strong trend day).

Pivots (classic, based on H=180.30, L=173.68, C=179.92)

• PP = 177.97, R1 = 182.25, R2 = 184.59, R3 = 188.87; S1 = 175.64, S2 = 171.35, S3 = 169.01.
• Practical takeaway: 178–179 holds above PP (bullish intraday bias). First upside magnet 182.25; extension target ~184.6.

Intraday (hourly) context 12/01

• 14:30–16:30: Impulsive bid from ~174.7 to ~180.
• 21:00: Sharp dip to ~175.84, then strong rebound to close near 180—classic “spring and reclaim” late in the session.
• VWAP behavior: Price oscillated around 179–180, closing near/above. Reclaims of VWAP into the close often lead to early-session follow-through.

Pattern diagnostics

• Candlestick: Near-hammer/long lower wick on daily after gap down—bullish reversal signal when appearing near support and lower Bollinger.
• Wyckoff lens: The November 25th low at 169.55 likely Phase C spring; recent higher lows above ~176–177 support the idea of absorption and a potential Phase D markup toward 183–186.

Mean-reversion vs. trend breakout

• Setup favors mean-reversion upward (price near lower band, RSI <50, MACD inflecting). Trend-followers may wait for a decisive reclaim of 182.3–183.9; however, tactical longs can lean on 175.6 S1 for risk.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Bull case (55%): Hold 178–179, push through R1 182.3; probe 183.9–184.6 resistance. Close in 182–184 zone.
• Base case (30%): Chop 177–182, close 180–182.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 178 quickly, test 175.6 S1; if selling accelerates, 171.3 (S2) possible. Close 174–176.

Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long thesis: Sustained trade below 175.6 (S1) turns today’s hammer into a failed reversal; bears could target 171–169 gap/capitulation area.
• Suggested protective stop (not part of the requested fields): ~175.50 (below S1) to preserve a favorable risk/reward.

Confluence summary

• Bullish: Hammer-like reversal on elevated volume; lower-band bounce; VWAP reclaim; pivot PP reclaim; improving MACD; RSI with room higher; strong late-day absorption.
• Headwinds: Overhead supply stack 182.3–184.6; price still below 20D and Kijun; general trend softened since late October.

Next 24h price prediction

• Expected path: Early dip-buying interest near 178.6–179.0; advance toward 182.3 with attempts at 183.9–184.6. Probable settlement 182–183 if the market remains neutral-to-positive.

Trade plan (tactical swing, 24h horizon)

• Position: Long (buy-the-dip).
• Entry: Limit buy near 178.7–179.0 (prior intraday shelf / PP+).
• Take-profit: 183.9 (Fib 38.2% and under R2 confluence). Stretch target 184.6 if momentum strong.
• Risk guide (informational): Stop ~175.5 (below S1). Risk ≈ $3.2; Reward ≈ $5.2 to 183.9 (R:R ~1.6).