Sell the Rip: Fading NVDA’s 184–185 Confluence into a 179–178.9 Test

NVDA — multi-timeframe technical read, next 24 hours

1. Market structure and context

• Primary structure since late October: lower-high sequence from 212.2 (10/29) → 206.9 (11/03) → 199.1 (11/10) → 190.2 (11/14) → 186.5 (11/19) → 183.4 (12/04). This descending trendline now caps price near 184–185.
• Pullback low zone: 178–177 cluster (11/21, 11/25, 11/28). Range underway between 177–185 with supply above 184.
• Current print: 182.41. Session 12/05 ranged 184.66 → 180.91 and closed near mid-range; small-body candle under trendline resistance—indecision beneath supply.

2. Trend and moving averages (SMA/EMA)

• 5D SMA ≈ 181.35 (bullish micro: price > 5D).
• 10D SMA ≈ 180.33 (bullish micro: 5D > 10D and price > 10D).
• 20D SMA ≈ 184.48 (bearish short-term: price < 20D; 10D < 20D).
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ 183.5–184 (price marginally below; trend neutral-to-down on the intermediate frame).
• 200D SMA (est.) ≈ 170–175 (price above; long-term uptrend intact).
• 8/21 EMA regime (est.): 8EMA ≈ 181–182 vs 21EMA ≈ 184; bearish slope with a short-term bounce pressing into falling 21EMA. Interpretation: Micro-bounce within a medium-term downtrend; rallies into 184–186 face an MA wall.

3. Momentum

• RSI(14) ≈ 45 (neutral-bearish; room both ways; not oversold/overbought).
• Stochastic (14,3,3) using last 14-trading-day H/L (low 177.0, high 186.5): %K ≈ 57 (mid-zone, no signal).
• MACD (12,26,9) qualitative: histogram near flat; signal line slightly below zero, attempting to curl—momentum lackluster with a mild bullish divergence attempt that keeps failing at 183–185. Interpretation: Momentum is insufficient to power through layered resistance unless breadth improves; favors fade-the-rip setups.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 4–4.5 (typical move scope 2.2%–2.5%).
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): mid ≈ 184.5; est. ±2σ ≈ 3.0 → upper ≈ 187.5–190, lower ≈ 178.5–181. Price sits in the lower third, not at extremes; mean-reversion pull to 184.5 competes with trend resistance there. Interpretation: The 184–185 zone is both the 20D mid-band and descending trendline—confluence resistance.

5. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Recent high-volume nodes: 182–183 and 178–180 from repeated tests; low-volume pocket between ~179–180.5 that often trades quickly.
• 12/05 intraday VWAP ≈ 182.2–182.4; close ≈ VWAP—no late-day accumulation signal.
• Volume: 12/05 ~143M into the close—near recent average; no capitulation or breakout volume. Interpretation: Value established around 182–183; failure to migrate value above 184 keeps sellers in control.

6. Price action and candles

• 12/04: bullish day to 183.38 (close near HOD), but 12/05 failed to extend—gap up faded, close below 20D SMA; prints a small-bodied candle under resistance (near a spinning top) → stall beneath supply.
• Lower highs remain intact; today’s high (184.66) kissed the descending trendline and pivot R1 (see below) and was sold. Interpretation: Classic sell-the-rip into resistance in a countertrend bounce.

7. Pivots and key levels (using 12/05 H=184.66, L=180.91, C=182.41)

• Pivot P = 182.66.
• R1 = 184.41; R2 = 186.41; R3 = 188.16.
• S1 = 180.66; S2 = 178.91; S3 = 176.91.
• Horizontal levels from structure: 185–186 (MA/price memory), 183.4–184.7 (local supply/trendline), 181.0–180.6 (intraday support/S1), 179–178.9 (S2), 177 (swing lows), 176.5–173 (deeper supports if momentum accelerates). Interpretation: The R1 at 184.41 aligns with the descending trendline and the 20D SMA region—high-confluence short entry.

8. Fibonacci context

• From 10/29 high 212.19 to 11/21 low 172.93: 38.2% ≈ 187.9; 50% ≈ 192.6; 61.8% ≈ 197.2. Post-low rallies stalled well below 50%, with repeated failures near 188–190. Interpretation: Retracement structure remains shallow; bears defending sub-38.2% keeps downside risk live.

9. Ichimoku (qualitative, daily)

• Tenkan (9) midpoint ≈ 188–189 (given recent H/L), Kijun (26) midpoint ≈ 192.6; price below both; future cloud likely flat-to-declining. Interpretation: Bearish regime; any pops towards Tenkan likely meet supply.

10. Regression/channel and pattern read

• Descending channel from late Oct; midline near 182–183; upper channel boundary ~184.5–185 today.
• Potential bear flag/sloping consolidation above 177 base; until 186+ is reclaimed with authority, pattern favors continuation to retest 179→177.

11. Mean reversion vs momentum framework

• Mean-reversion pull targets 184.5 (20D SMA) where negative momentum regime typically reloads shorts.
• Momentum regime still negative on 20D/50D; expect sellers to lean at 184–185 unless a decisive close >186.5 flips the tape.

12. Scenario map for the next 24 hours (probabilities subjective)

• Base case (60%): Early strength into 183.8–184.6 fades; rejection near pivot R1/20D SMA sends price back to 181.0–180.6 (S1), with extension to 179–178.9 (S2) if liquidity thins.
• Range case (30%): Value rotation 181–184 around pivot (182.7) with no resolution; chop persists ahead of fresh catalysts.
• Bull risk (10%): Clean break and hold above 185.0–186.5 on rising volume targets 187.9 (Fib 38.2%) then 188.1–188.2 (R3 vicinity); would invalidate the short bias short-term.

13. Trade plan (short bias) and risk framework

• Thesis: Sell the rip into 184–185 confluence (pivot R1 184.41, descending trendline, 20D SMA) within a medium-term downtrend; target the value trough toward S2 (178.9), which aligns with November swing cluster support.
• Entry: Limit sell near 184.4 (tolerance 183.9–184.6). Using a single precise level for automation: 184.41.
• Stop (discretionary guidance): 186.10–186.50 (above R2/failed-break zone and the descending trendline), to avoid stop-inside-supply wicks. Risk ≈ 1.7–2.1.
• Take profit: 178.90 (S2), where responsive buyers showed up before; consider scaling at 180.7 (S1) and running a remainder to 178.9; for this instruction, primary TP = 178.90.
• Risk/Reward: From 184.41 entry vs 186.20 stop (≈1.79 risk) to 178.90 TP (≈5.51 reward) → R:R ≈ 3.1:1.
• Invalidation: Strong hourly close above 185.5 and daily close above 186.5 with rising volume turns bias neutral/up; then a long reversal setup would target 187.9 → 190.

14. Additional tactical notes

• Intraday tells: Watch reaction to VWAP and pivot P (182.66). Sustained trade below P post-open strengthens the short case; a push above P into R1 with negative delta is an ideal entry.
• Liquidity pocket: 180.5–179.0 is a thin zone; if 180.6 (S1) breaks on volume, expect swift travel to 179–178.9.
• Gap risk: Next session open could gap through planned entry. If a gap opens below 181, prefer to wait for a weak bounce back to 182.5–183.5; do not chase mid-pocket shorts.

Bottom line: Short the pop into 184–185 resistance, targeting 179–178.9 over the next session, unless price reclaims and holds above 186.5 on volume.