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NVDA icon
NVDA
▼
Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$184.9
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T52k
Date
2026-01-16
22:00
Analyzed

NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA at a 190 Rejection: High-Volume Fade Setup Pointing to a 185 Retest

Market context & structure (Daily)

Current price: 186.23 (latest print ~186.35 after-hours)

1) Trend & regime (multi-week)

  • Swing high: ~212.19 (2025-10-29). From there NVDA sold off into a capitulation cluster in mid/late Nov.
  • Swing low / base: ~169.55–173 area (late Nov / mid Dec). This created a clear demand zone.
  • Since mid Dec, price has been rebounding in a broad range with higher lows: 170.94 (12/17) → 175.02 (12/12 low) → ~180.80 (1/14 low).
  • The last ~3 weeks are best described as range-to-up bias rather than a clean trend: repeated tests of the 188–193 area without sustained acceptance above it.

Conclusion: Intermediate structure is recovering from a prior downtrend, but still range-bound beneath resistance.

Key levels (price-action / S&R)

2) Horizontal levels from repeated reactions

  • Resistance R1: 188.6–190.5 (multiple closes/opens here; today’s high 190.44 rejected)

  • Resistance R2: 192.7–193.6 (cluster: 1/2 high 192.93; 1/5 high 193.63)

  • Major resistance R3: ~200–203 (former breakdown zone)

  • Support S1: 185.0–184.8 (recent closes 1/8–1/13; frequent pivot)

  • Support S2: 183.0–182.3 (1/12 low 183.02; 12/22 low 182.35)

  • Demand zone S3: 176–170 (base area from Dec)

Where price is now: 186 is mid-range, closer to S1 than R2, after a rejection from R1.

Candles & pattern read

3) Latest daily candle behavior

  • 1/15: strong up day (close 187.05) with wide range and higher volume.
  • 1/16: attempted continuation (high 190.44) but failed and closed down at 186.23.
  • This is consistent with a bull trap / intraday rejection at 190 and indicates supply overhead.

4) Microstructure (hourly / intraday provided)

  • Early hours showed stability around 188.4–189.0, then a sharp dip printed down to ~183.14 (13:00 bar), followed by a rebound back toward 189.
  • Late session (20:30) sold down to 186.08 and closed ~186.23.

Interpretation: Volatility expansion + failure to hold above 188–189 suggests distribution and likely mean-reversion lower toward supports before any renewed upside attempt.

Momentum & moving-average inference (price-only based)

(Exact MA/RSI values aren’t computable here without running full calculations, but we can infer regime from swing structure and closes.)

5) Momentum (RSI-like behavior by swing progression)

  • The rebound from 170→190 was strong, but multiple failures above 190–193 since late Dec/early Jan imply momentum is stalling.
  • Today’s rejection after probing 190.44 is typical of RSI rolling over from mid-high zone rather than trending strongly.

6) Moving-average behavior (qualitative)

  • Price has spent much of Dec/Jan around 180–189, implying short MAs (5–10 day) are near current price.
  • Failure to hold 189+ suggests price is vulnerable to slipping below short MAs and retesting 184–185.

Volatility, ranges, and risk framing

7) True range / ATR intuition

  • Recent daily ranges are typically ~3–6 points, with occasional larger days.
  • Today: High 190.44 to Low 186.08 ≈ 4.36 points.

Implication for next 24h: A realistic move is ±2–4 points from 186.2, with risk of a support test.

Volume / participation clues

8) Volume signals

  • 1/15 volume (206M) was high and bullish.
  • 1/16 volume (170.8M) remained elevated but price closed lower.

Classic read: strong participation on a down-close after an up day can indicate profit-taking / supply absorbing demand near resistance.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (highest probability): Pullback / consolidation lower

  • Expect price to drift/test 185.0–184.8 (S1).
  • If S1 breaks with momentum, next magnet is 183.2–182.3 (S2).

Bull case: reclaim 188.6–190.5

  • Would require holding above ~188.8 and pushing through 190.5.
  • Then 192.9–193.6 becomes the next target, but this has rejected multiple times.

Bear case: breakdown acceleration

  • Clean break and acceptance below 183 opens a faster slide toward 179–176.
  • This is less likely in 24h unless broader market risk-off appears.

24h directional bias: slightly bearish / mean-reversion down (post-rejection from 190.44, elevated volume on down-close).

Trade plan (decision + execution logic)

Why Sell (short) here

  • Resistance rejection: failed breakout attempt above 190.
  • Overhead supply: repeated ceiling 190–193.
  • Near-term distribution: elevated volume with lower close.
  • Mean reversion: price likely to revisit 185 and possibly 183 before next attempt higher.

Optimal entry (open price)

  • Avoid shorting the exact middle (186.2). Prefer a pullback entry into resistance to improve R:R.
  • Best tactical zone: 188.80 (retest of broken intraday area and near R1 underside).

Take-profit / close price

  • First high-probability magnet: 184.90 (S1 pivot). This aligns with expected 24h range and avoids being too greedy.

Prediction (next 24h)

  • Likely path: 186 → 188–189 retest (if any) → fade → 185 test, with risk of a brief spike.
  • Expected 24h range: roughly 184.5–189.5.