NVDA Holds the $222 Demand Zone: Bullish Rebound Targets a Retest of $228.50

NVDA 24-hour technical outlook

Market snapshot: NVDA is quoted at $224.58 (24 Sep 2026). The stock recovered from an intraday low of $221.09 and closed near the session high of $224.90, producing a constructive bullish recovery candle after opening at $222.08. The final hourly sequence also showed a rebound from the $221.37–$221.69 intraday demand area toward $224.54 before a modest late pullback.

1. Trend structure and moving-average context

• The short-term trend has improved materially from the 14–15 September low zone near $208.93–$210.96.
• Price advanced to $228.87 on 22 September, pulled back to $225.51, and held above the rising support structure during the 24 September session.
• Estimated 5-day SMA is approximately $225.7, so price is marginally below the very short-term average following the recent consolidation.
• Estimated 10-day SMA is approximately $220.3 and the 20-day SMA approximately $221.9. The current price remains above both, preserving the intermediate bullish bias.
• The 5-day average remains above the 10- and 20-day averages, indicating that the broader recovery impulse is still intact despite the pullback from $230.

2. Price action and candlestick evidence

• The 24 September daily candle has a positive body: open $222.08, close $224.58. It rebounded sharply after testing $221.09, showing buyers were active below $222.
• The candle closed in the upper portion of its daily range ($221.09–$224.90), which is generally more constructive than a close near the low.
• The recent decline from $230.36 (4 September) to $210.96 (14 September) was followed by a decisive recovery to $228.87. This establishes a sequence of higher lows from the mid-September trough.
• The current setup resembles a pullback/consolidation within that rebound rather than a confirmed bearish trend reversal, provided $221–$222 remains defended.

3. Support and resistance map

Immediate support

• $224.00: intraday pivot and psychologically important round-number area.
• $222.00–$221.10: 24 September opening region and session-low demand zone; this is the key near-term invalidation area.
• $219.34–$220.00: prior breakout/consolidation support and a deeper downside reference.

Immediate resistance

• $224.90–$225.51: current-session high and prior-day close/high area.
• $227.38–$228.87: 21–22 September swing-high resistance and the primary upside target zone.
• $229.98–$230.47: major supply zone defined by the 3–4 September highs and 27 August spike high.

A sustained move above $225.50 would likely invite a retest of $227.38–$228.87. Conversely, a decisive failure below $221.09 would weaken the bullish thesis and expose $219–$220.

4. Momentum assessment

• The recovery from $210.96 to $228.87 was rapid, so the subsequent move toward $224.58 has relieved some near-term overextension without breaking the higher-low structure.
• A rough 10-session RSI-style reading is in positive, non-extreme territory (around the low-to-mid 60s by estimated gain/loss balance). This supports bullish momentum while leaving room for another advance before a classic overbought condition.
• Momentum has cooled from the 22 September high but has not shifted decisively bearish: the 24 September rebound demonstrates that selling pressure was absorbed near support.

5. Volume and participation

• The 18 September advance to $222.27 occurred on elevated volume of roughly 190.3M shares, validating the initial recovery.
• The 21–22 September rally toward $228.87 occurred on approximately 109.8M and 95.7M shares, respectively.
• The pullback days of 23–24 September occurred on lower volume—about 89.5M and 76.4M shares—than the stronger upside expansion days. Lower-volume retracement is more consistent with consolidation than aggressive institutional distribution.
• A bullish continuation signal would be strengthened by a break above $225.50 accompanied by volume expansion; without that confirmation, expect choppy movement around $224–$225.

6. Fibonacci and measured-move perspective

Using the recent swing low near $210.96 and swing high near $228.87:

• 23.6% retracement: approximately $224.64
• 38.2% retracement: approximately $222.03
• 50.0% retracement: approximately $219.92

The current price is near the shallow 23.6% retracement area, while the intraday low held just above the more meaningful 38.2% retracement near $222. This is favorable for a continuation attempt if buyers keep price above $222.

7. Intraday structure

• Pre-market and early-session trading pressured NVDA toward $221.09, but the stock then reclaimed $222, $223, and $224 during the regular session.
• The strongest hourly push occurred between the $221.95 area and $224.13, followed by stable consolidation rather than a full reversal.
• The $224.00 area is therefore an attractive tactical entry reference: it is close to the current intraday pivot and offers better risk/reward than chasing a breakout directly into $225.50 resistance.

8. 24-hour forecast and trade conclusion

The most probable next-24-hour path is mildly bullish to bullish consolidation, with NVDA likely attempting to reclaim $225.50 and test the $227.38–$228.50 resistance zone. The probability of this scenario is supported by: (1) price holding above the 10- and 20-day trend references, (2) a bullish intraday recovery from $221.09, (3) lower volume on the recent pullback, and (4) retracement support around $222.

Trade stance: Buy. The preferred approach is a limit-style entry near $224.00, rather than buying an extended move above $225.50. A practical profit objective is $228.50, just below the $228.87 swing high. The bullish thesis is materially weakened on a sustained move below $221.00; risk control is essential because NVDA remains volatile and the chart data alone cannot account for overnight news, market-wide risk, or semiconductor-sector catalysts.