NVDA at Range Pivot: Post-Capitulation Bounce Aims for 186–188 Supply Zone

Market structure (Daily)

Current price: 184.84 (last print ~184.27–184.87 intraday)

1) Trend & regime

• Medium-term regime = range / mean-reversion since late Nov.
  • Price has oscillated mostly between ~175–190 (with occasional wicks).
• Immediate trend (last ~10–15 sessions) = recovering from the sharp selloff into Jan 20 (close 178.07).
  • Bounce to Jan 21 close 183.32, and Jan 22 close ~184.84 suggests short-term higher lows.

2) Key levels (support/resistance mapping)

Supports

• 183.9–184.3: repeatedly traded intraday on Jan 22; acts as micro support.
• 182.3–183.0: prior reaction area (late Dec/early Jan congestion).
• 178.0–179.0: Jan 20 capitulation close and prior base; major support.
• 175.0–176.3: December swing lows; structural range floor.

Resistances

• 186.1–186.6: Jan 15/16 & Jan 22 intraday highs zone (supply overhead).
• 188.6–189.7: repeated January failures; near the prior swing highs.
• 190.4–193.6: upper band from late Dec/early Jan.

Implication: At ~184.8, NVDA is mid-range, slightly closer to the 186–189 supply than to the 178 support, but the Jan 20→22 rebound improves odds of at least one more push toward resistance.

3) Candlestick / price action read

• Jan 20: strong bearish impulse day (close 178.07) = potential selling climax.
• Jan 21: wide range with recovery close (to 183.32) = demand response / short-covering.
• Jan 22: held above ~184 most of the session, probed ~186.17 then mean-reverted back = supply present above 186, but buyers defended 184.

This is consistent with a bounce leg that is not yet fully resolved (needs either clean break above 186.6 or failure back below 183).

4) Momentum indicators (inference from sequence)

(Exact RSI/MACD not computable perfectly here without full indicator calc, but the observed swings allow a high-confidence directional inference.)

• The drop to 178 followed by quick reclaim to 184–185 typically pushes short-term RSI back toward neutral (45–55) from oversold.
• Momentum is recovering, but not impulsive (since price stalled at 186 and drifted back).

5) Moving averages (structure-based)

• Since Dec, closes cluster around mid-180s, implying the 20-day MA is near current price.
• The inability to sustain above 188–190 suggests the 50-day area is likely overhead.

Conclusion: Price is likely below/near key MAs, but the mean-reversion bias within the 175–190 range favors buying near support and taking profits into resistance.

6) Volatility & ATR-style read

• Recent daily ranges: typical ~3–6 points with occasional 8–15 point shock days (e.g., Nov 20–21, Jan 20–21).
• For the next 24h, a practical expectation is ~1.5%–3% move (≈ 2.8 to 5.5 dollars), unless a news catalyst expands range.

7) Volume / participation

• Big participation clusters on impulse days (Jan 20, Jan 21) indicate institutional repositioning.
• Jan 22 volume is lower than Jan 20/21, consistent with pause/consolidation after impulse—often followed by a continuation attempt in the direction of the rebound (up) before the next larger decision point.

8) Intraday (hourly) microstructure

• Hourly data shows repeated holds around 184.5–185.0, with failed extensions.
• This creates a tight pivot:
  • Above 185.8–186.2 = room for squeeze to 187.8–188.6.
  • Below 184.0 = risk of slide to 183.0 then 182.3.

9) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (55%) — upward probe then stall:

• Buyers defend 184.0–184.3, price rotates up to 186.2, possibly tags 187.5–188.3, then profit-taking.

Bear case (25%) — breakdown of pivot:

• Lose 184, accelerate to 182.8–183.0, possibly 182.3. Only becomes truly bearish if <181.5, opening 179.

Bull case (20%) — clean breakout:

• Sustained trade above 186.6 triggers continuation to 188.6–189.7.

10) Trade thesis (24h)

Given:

• Sharp bounce off 178 (capitulation-like),
• Consolidation above 184,
• Nearest meaningful magnet above at 186–188,

…the higher-probability 24h play is a tactical Long targeting the next resistance band, but only with an entry close to support to control downside.

Prediction (next 24 hours)

Slight bullish / mean-reversion up: expected trade mostly 184 → 187 area, with spikes possible to 188+ if 186.6 breaks.

Decision

Buy (Long) — tactical bounce continuation within the established range.

Optimal order placement

• Prefer a limit buy near demand rather than chasing mid-range.
• Best risk/reward is near the pivot support where invalidation is clear.