NVDA Hammer Rebound From 176 Support: Aiming for 184 on Mean-Reversion Within the December Range

Step-by-step multi-technique analysis of NVDA (as of 2025-12-11 close)

1. Market regime and context

• Regime: Sideways consolidation since late November, bounded roughly by 176–186 after a sharp October advance and November volatility. The tape shows repeated support buys near 176–178 and supply near 184–186, implying a range-trading environment with mean-reversion edges.
• Today’s candle (daily): Long lower shadow (intraday low 176.62) with a close back at 180.93. That is a hammer-like recovery from the lower end of the range—bullish for short-term mean reversion.
• Inconsistent print alert: The intraday tape shows a 21:00 bar with a 169.27 spike and a 171.27 close, but the official daily close is 180.93 and the day’s low printed 176.62. Given the mismatch and negligible next-bar volume, I treat the 169–171 ticks as an off-market anomaly/erroneous print rather than a true after-hours breakdown. Key take: the real actionable context is a hammer day off 176–177 support.

2. Structure, support/resistance, and levels of interest

• Key supports: 176.6 (today’s low and prior demand zone), 177.0 (Nov 28 close), 177.8–178.0 (multiple retests), 174.9 (pivot S2 calculation).
• Key resistances: 182.6 (pivot R1), 184.1–184.3 (Fib 23.6% confluence and pivot R2), 185.5–186.0 (recent swing supply cluster), 187.3 (pivot R3).
• Volume nodes: Heavy activity between 180–182 over the last two weeks (visible by repeated closes/opens and large volumes), indicating a high-volume node/value area. Acceptance here, rejection near extremes.
• Today’s classic pivots (from H=181.32, L=176.62, C=180.93): • Pivot (P) = 179.62 • R1 = 182.63, R2 = 184.32, R3 = 187.33 • S1 = 177.93, S2 = 174.92, S3 ≈ 171.22
• Interpretation: Price closed above P (179.62) and reclaimed the value area into the close, favoring a push toward R1 (182.63) and potentially R2 (184.32) within 24 hours if broader market conditions are neutral.

3. Moving averages and trend gauges

• Short/Mid-term MAs (approx): 10–20 day SMA drifting ~182–184 given recent distribution of closes; 50 day SMA high-180s to low-180s after October’s run and November’s pullback. Current close (180.93) is below the 20SMA but near the 50SMA region—consistent with consolidation rather than trend.
• Takeaway: With price slightly below the 20SMA and near the 50SMA, the default expectation is mean reversion toward the 20SMA if support holds.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (qualitative): Mid-range (roughly mid-40s to low-50s) over recent sessions, consistent with range-bound conditions. The hammer day suggests RSI stabilizing with room to travel toward 50–55 on a bounce.
• MACD (daily) (qualitative): Near the zero-line with a flattening histogram. Today’s strong intraday reversal often precedes a short-lived positive MACD inflection in range regimes.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely cycling up from lower-half, supportive of a near-term push toward resistance.
• Interpretation: Momentum is neutral-to-slightly-bullish in a box; there is room to the upside before momentum reaches overbought.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• ATR(14) (qualitative): Moderate (~5.5–6.5) after November’s volatility burst; today’s range (≈4.7) is at the lower edge of recent ATR, suggesting potential for a 1–1.5 ATR move if a push begins.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) (approx): Middle band (~20SMA around 183–184); lower band around 178–179. Price rebounded from near/below the lower band and closed closer to the mid-band trajectory. This favors a mean-reversion move toward the middle band (≈183–184) in the next session.

6. Volume, VWAP, OBV

• Volume: Elevated relative to recent average, aligned with a reversal day (buyers stepped in at 176–178). High participation on the reversal adds credibility to the hammer.
• Intraday VWAP: Roughly around 180.0–180.5. Price finished near/above VWAP after testing lower—classic “reclaim” behavior that often leads to continuation bid early next session.
• OBV (qualitative): Ticked higher relative to the open, consistent with net accumulation on the day.

7. Candlestick and intraday pattern read

• Daily hammer/pin-bar from support indicates dip-buying strength.
• Intraday: Sequence of higher lows after the early dump to 176.6, with a close back near the session’s upper-mid range. This “strong close” configuration often carries momentum into the next open, especially inside ranges.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price reclaimed/hovered around the Tenkan (~180–181). Kijun estimated around ~182–183, forming the first resistance band. Cloud base/top projected near 183–185. The next tactical targets are Tenkan sustain then Kijun/low cloud tap—consistent with R1 (182.6) and R2 (184.3).

9. Fibonacci mapping (using the larger swing)

• Using swing low 177 (Nov 28) to swing high 207 (late Oct/early Nov) places 23.6% retrace near ~199; however, for the more recent downswing (207 to 177), the 23.6% upward retrace sits near ~184.1 and the 38.2% near ~188.5. The 184 area aligns strongly with pivot R2 and the recent supply shelf—an ideal near-term target in a bounce scenario.

10. Elliott Wave / harmonic context (high level)

• The price action since late November resembles a sideways corrective phase (flat/complex) after the strong October impulse. Today’s tag of the lower range boundary (176–178) and immediate reversal is consistent with a smaller-degree wave that often aims back toward mid-range resistance (182–185) before the next decision.
• Harmonic confluence: The 176–178 pocket coincides with repeated retests and a cluster of prior lows—functionally a PRZ (potential reversal zone) for short-term harmonic completion. This adds weight to an upside reaction.

11. Probability-weighted 24-hour outlook

• Base case (≈55–60%): Mean-reversion push into 182.6–184.3 (pivot R1 to R2) with intraday chop around the 182 handle before testing 184. If market beta is friendly, a wick can probe into 184.5–185.
• Neutral/chop case (≈25–30%): Rotate around the pivot 179.6–181.5 without a decisive break, ending near 181–182.
• Bear/break case (≈10–15%): Failure to hold P (179.62) and S1 (177.93) triggers a stop-run toward 176.5 and potentially S2 (174.9). This path becomes more likely only if the broader market sells off or if any after-hours anomaly translates into genuine selling.

12. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Regime favors range tactics. Today’s hammer off support suggests entering long on a controlled pullback into the pivot to target the upper-mid range next.
• Entry logic: Use a limit buy near the daily pivot P = 179.62. If price gaps up above 182.6 at the open, avoid chasing; wait for a pullback to 181.8–182.2 (VWAP/5min MA confluence) or back toward 180.5–181.0 to maintain favorable R:R.
• Target: First take-profit zone aligns with R2/Fib confluence 184.1–184.3. That’s also the mid-band/20SMA area, where sellers have been active.
• Invalidation/stop (not requested but prudent): Below 176.3 (decisive break under today’s low zone), which would signal a failure of the hammer and a likely test of 175 or lower.
• Estimated R:R from 179.62 to 184.30 with a protective stop under 176.30 is roughly 4.68:3.32 ≈ 1.41:1, acceptable in a range play with high confluence.

Conclusion and actionable view

• The confluence of a hammer reversal off the 176–178 demand zone, VWAP reclaim, alignment with pivot math, and Bollinger mean-reversion suggests a near-term push back toward 183–184+ in the next 24 hours. Use a buy-on-dip near 179.62 with a tactical target near 184.30.

Note on the 169–171 after-hours print

• The isolated low/close with zero-follow volume next bar and contradiction to the official daily OHLC suggests a data anomaly. If, however, premarket confirms pricing below 177.9 with sustained volume, switch to capital preservation: wait for a reclaim of P (179.6) before re-engaging long, or stand aside.