NVDA at the 38.2% Line: Buy the $200 Dip for a Snapback Toward $208

Below is a comprehensive, step-by-step multi-tool technical assessment of NVDA using the supplied daily and intraday data, culminating in a 24-hour price path forecast and a trade plan.

1. Market structure and context

• Current: $202.49 (2025-10-31 close). A two-session pullback after a strong gap-and-run on 10/28–10/29 (close 201.03 → 207.04), followed by a drift lower to 202.89 (10/30) and 202.49 (10/31).
• Breakaway gap: 10/28 gapped up from 191.49 (10/27 close) to 193.05 (10/28 open). Gap remains open (regular session) 191.49–193.05.
• Immediate levels: Resistance 206–208 (today’s high 207.97 and prior supply into the 10/29 highs); Support psychological $200; deeper supports 197 (50% retrace of 10/22→10/29 leg) and 192.5–193 (61.8% retrace aligning with gap top).
• Intraday anomalies: Prints to 192.85 (20:00 bar) and 180.80 (13:00 bar) suggest liquidity sweeps/erroneous ticks. Regular-session low today was 202.07. I treat extreme off-market prints as noise but note they highlight latent liquidity pockets.

2. Trend analysis (multi-average, multi-timeframe)

• 20-day SMA: ≈ 188.3 (post 10/31 update). Price is ~7.5% above; short-term uptrend intact, but extended above mean.
• 50-day SMA (approx): high 170s/low 180s; price well above → medium-term uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (approx): high 160s/low 170s; firmly below price → long-term uptrend.
• EMAs: 9-EMA ~ high 190s/near 200; 21-EMA ~ ~188–190. 9>21 and price ≈ at/just above 9-EMA → bullish structure with a normal post-breakout pullback toward fast MA.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx): ~79–80 after the surge; the last two red sessions cool it slightly but still in elevated territory. Implication: overbought on a 14-day lookback, yet overbought in strong trends can persist; pullbacks are typically shallow to mid-depth (38.2–50% of the latest impulse) before trend resumption.
• MACD: MACD line strongly above signal after the 10/28–10/29 thrust; histogram rolling over the last two sessions → momentum deceleration, not outright reversal. Bullish trend, short-term consolidation.
• Stochastics (qualitative): likely rolling off overbought, consistent with a “flag” digestion.

4. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) (computed from 10/14–10/31): ≈ $6.1. This defines the anticipated daily move envelope for the next session. Expected 1-day distribution centered on ~202.5 suggests a 196.4–208.6 rough 1-ATR band.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): with 20SMA ≈ 188.3 and elevated post-surge variance, price recently pressed/rode the upper band. Mean-reversion pull toward the 9-EMA/upper-mid band is consistent with the current two-day dip.

5. Fibonacci structure of the latest impulse

• Leg measured: 10/22 low 180.28 → 10/29 high 212.19 (range 31.91).
• Key retracements:
  • 38.2%: 212.19 − 12.19 ≈ 200.00 (psychologically critical round number; tested today with a 202.07 low and closing near it).
  • 50%: ≈ 196.24 (next key level if 200 fails).
  • 61.8%: ≈ 192.47 (aligns with gap top 193.05; confluence with Ichimoku/AVWAP zones below). Interpretation: Price is sitting just above the 38.2% retrace; classic bull-market pullback zone. A dip into 199–200 is a high-probability response/”buy-the-dip” area. A loss of 200 opens a path to 196–197; only a more forceful liquidation would press for a gap test ~192.5–193.

6. Ichimoku lens (9/26/52)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint): ≈ (212.19 high + 176.76 low)/2 = ~194.48 → first dynamic support.
• Kijun-sen (26 mid): ≈ (recent 26-day high ~212.19 + low ~167.22)/2 ≈ 189.7 → stronger base support.
• Price > Tenkan > Kijun; Lagging span above price; Cloud (Span A ≈ 192.1; Span B ≈ mid-180s) rising. Net: bullish regime. Pullbacks to Tenkan (~194–195) are normal; a hold above 200 preserves a strong bullish posture above the Tenkan, implying shallow corrections before trend continuation.

7. Volume and participation

• Volume expansion: 10/28 (≈298M) and 10/29 (≈309M) were true volume-climax days—typical of breakaway gaps or major news events. Subsequent pullback days (10/30, 10/31) saw lower but still elevated volume (≈179M and ≈176M), consistent with digestion rather than distribution.
• Interpretation: The move up was institutionally sponsored; the last two sessions did not show a dramatic distribution spike. This favors consolidation-to-resumption rather than quick mean-reversion to the 20SMA.

8. Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) and VWAP context

• Anchored from the 10/28 gap day (open 193.05 or session VWAP) likely sits near the 201–203 area after incorporating the strong 10/29 advance and two red days. Today’s close ~202.5 is on/near that anchored value area—“fair value” for post-gap positioning.
• Implication: The market is balancing around the AVWAP from the breakaway. A break above ~205–206 signals initiative buyers regaining control; a sustained break below ~200 suggests a deeper test toward 197, then 193.

9. Classic pivots for the next session (derived from 10/31 H/L/C)

• Pivot P: (207.97 + 202.07 + 202.49)/3 ≈ 204.18
• R1 ≈ 206.28; R2 ≈ 210.08; R3 ≈ 212.18
• S1 ≈ 200.38; S2 ≈ 198.28; S3 ≈ 194.48 Note the clustering: S1 at ~200.4 and the 38.2% fib at ~200 align; R2 and R3 line up with the 10/29 high zone. These confluences reinforce the tactical levels.

10. Candles and patterns

• 10/28: Breakaway gap with long-bodied bullish candle; 10/29: follow-through but with an upper wick → first signs of exhaustion near 212.
• 10/30: Bearish day that retraced a chunk of 10/29; 10/31: another red day rejecting ~208 early and closing near 202.5 → two-day pullback shaping a bull flag/ascending flag structure between ~200–206.
• Pattern takeaway: A continuation flag is forming. Resolution typically occurs within 1–4 sessions; a topside break through 206–208 targets prior high 212 and possibly extensions.

11. Order blocks, gap dynamics, and liquidity

• Supply: 205.5–208 is a clear intraday/daytime order block (repeated intraday failures today and the day prior). A clean break above should release pent-up demand and trigger momentum buying toward 210–212.
• Demand: 199.5–200.5 is packed with technical confluence (Fib 38.2%, S1 pivot, round number, near 9-EMA, anchored VWAP zone). If this shelf fails under heavy volume, mechanical stop-outs likely accelerate to 196–197 (50% retrace and S2 vicinity). A further liquidity vacuum exists down to 192.5–193 (61.8% + gap-top), where stronger dip demand should appear.

12. Statistical price path over the next 24 hours Base assumptions: ATR(14) ~ $6.1; trend bullish; momentum cooling; price at AVWAP balance.

• Scenario A (55%): Early probe into 199.5–200.5, holds, then rotation higher toward 205.5–206.5; if R1 breaks, extension into 207.9–208.6. Close likely 205–208.
• Scenario B (30%): Quick liquidity sweep below 200 into 197.5–198.5 (near 50% retrace/S2), then a bounce to 202–204 to re-balance; close 201–204.
• Scenario C (15%): Strong gap-up/open drive above 206.5 that overwhelms supply, trending day to 210–212 (R2–R3), possible marginal new high probe; close 209–212. Aggregate expectation: Slight upward skew after a dip, with 200 acting as the first battleground and 206–208 as the cap to beat.

13. Risk management and invalidation cues

• Bull thesis intact while ≥ 196–197 on a closing basis. Sustained trade below 196 opens the door to a full gap test ~193, which would shift the next 24h bias from “buy dips” to “sell rallies.”
• Upside invalidation for shorts: > 208 on sustained intraday basis; then 210–212 test is probable.

14. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluences around 200 are unusually strong (Fib 38.2%, pivot S1, round number, anchored VWAP neighborhood, fast MA proximity). In strong uptrends, such confluences often mark high-odds dip-buys before a reattempt of resistance.
• Given the ATR and intraday structure, an optimal plan is a limit buy near 200 with a tactical profit objective just under the 207.9–208.0 resistance shelf to front-run offers and reduce slippage.
• Stop (for completeness, though not requested): a prudent risk line sits under 196.2 (below 50% retrace and S2), recognizing the trade morphs from “buy the dip” to “gap-fill mode” if that breaks.

24-hour forecast summary: Expect a dip-and-rip profile—probe toward 200 (or shallowly below), then a rebound to 206–208. A clean break and hold over 206.5 materially raises odds of a 208–210 test; failure of 200 on rising volume risks a quick air-pocket to ~197 before rebalancing.