NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA Breakdown Below 180: High-Volume Bearish Rotation Targeting the 175 Support Zone

Market snapshot (NVDA)

Current price: 178.07
Latest daily candle (2026-01-20): O 181.90 / H 182.38 / L 177.62 / C 178.07 → large bearish body, close near the low.
Key context: After a late-Dec bounce to ~190–192, price has rolled over and is now breaking below the mid-range support zone.

1) Trend & structure (multi-timeframe)

Daily trend (last ~3–4 months)

Peak zone formed late Oct around 207–212 (blow-off move), followed by a sharp breakdown into Nov.
Since late Nov, NVDA has been largely range-bound but with lower highs into January.
Important swing points:
- Support cluster: 175–177 (multiple December lows; also psychological 175)
- Resistance cluster: 186–190 (repeated failures late Dec / early Jan)
Today’s daily close (178.07) is below the recent January “balance” area (~183–186), which is typically bearish: when a market loses the middle of a range, it often rotates to test the lower edge.

Intraday structure (hourly sequence today)

Early session held ~181–182, then persistent sell pressure into 179.5 → 178.5 → 178.2.
The tape shows acceptance below 180 (multiple hourly closes below 180), suggesting 180 is flipping from support to resistance.

Conclusion (trend/structure): Short-term structure is bearish, with price likely to probe the 175–177 demand area within the next 24 hours unless a sharp mean-reversion reclaim occurs.

2) Support/Resistance map (price-action)

Support levels

177.6–178.0: today’s low/close area (very near-term).
175.0–176.3: major multi-touch support (Dec 12 close ~175.02; multiple mid-Dec pivots).
170.3–171.0: December breakdown low (Dec 17 close ~170.94) → if 175 fails, this is the next magnet.

Resistance levels

180.0–181.0: broken intraday shelf; likely first sell zone on bounce.
183.1–184.9: recent consolidation/median area (Jan 9–14 region).
186.2–188.9: repeated supply (Jan 2–8 and Jan 15–16 highs).

Implication: Rallies into 180–181 are more likely to be sold than to trend higher, unless price can reclaim and hold above ~183.

3) Candlestick & pattern read

Daily candle (Jan 20): strong bearish continuation-type candle (close near low). This often signals:
- follow-through selling next session, or
- at minimum, a retest of the breakdown level (180–181) from below.
Prior days: a failed attempt to hold the 186–190 band earlier in January, then a decisive drop.

Pattern takeaway: This resembles a range breakdown / distribution-to-markdown transition, targeting the lower range boundary (~175).

4) Momentum (RSI-style inference)

While exact RSI isn’t computable here without a full series calculation, the sequence of lower closes from ~189 → 185 → 183 → 187 → 186 → 178 implies momentum has shifted decisively bearish.

The move is strong enough that RSI would likely be trending toward (or below) midline 50 and possibly approaching oversold on shorter intraday windows.

Implication: Downside momentum dominates; oversold bounces are possible, but trend favors selling bounces.

5) Moving-average regime (qualitative)

From the provided series:

Price spent much of Dec–early Jan oscillating below the ~190 area, suggesting the intermediate average (often the 20–50D zone) is likely overhead.
Today’s close at 178 is meaningfully below the late-Dec cluster (185–190), implying the market is likely trading below key MAs.

Implication: MA regime is likely bearish; overhead averages become dynamic resistance.

6) Volatility & range (ATR-style inference)

Recent daily ranges commonly ~3–6 points; today’s range is ~4.76 (182.38–177.62).
That suggests a near-term 24h “typical” move could easily reach:
- 175–176 on continuation, or
- 180–182 on a mean reversion bounce.

Implication: There is enough volatility for a downside test of 175 within 24 hours.

7) Volume / participation

Today’s daily volume (~219M) is high relative to many recent sessions.
High volume on a bearish candle often indicates distribution (institutions selling into liquidity).

Implication: Bearish move has credibility; not just low-liquidity drift.

8) Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): Bearish continuation / rotation to range-low

Price fails to reclaim 180–181, drifts down to test 175–177.
Expected path: 178 → (minor bounce) 179–180 → continuation to 176–175.

Alternate case: Mean reversion bounce

If buyers defend 177.5–178 aggressively, price may squeeze back to 180.8–182.3.
But unless it reclaims 183+ and holds, that bounce is likely a sell-the-rip.

Tail risk: Breakdown through 175

If 175 breaks with acceptance, next magnet becomes 171 area.

24h directional bias: Down to mildly down, with a strong chance of probing 175–177.

Trade plan (tactical)

Given the structure, the higher-quality setup is to short a bounce into resistance rather than chase the low.

Optimal short entry zone: where prior support turns into resistance: 180.5–181.2.
Take-profit target: front-run major support: 175.6 (ahead of 175.0).

Final call

Decision: Sell (Short)
Rationale (combined): bearish daily breakdown + acceptance below 180 + strong bearish candle on high volume + overhead resistance stack (181/183/186) + likely rotation to 175 support.