NVDA: Hammer Off the Floor—Setting Up a Mean-Reversion Push Toward 181–182

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish (mean-reversion bounce inside a broader range). Expect a test of 179.6 first, then 181.2–182.0 if buyers defend 176–177 pullbacks. Invalidation on sustained break below 174.2–174.6.
• Setup: Buy-the-dip within the 176–177 demand area after today’s lower-tail reversal, targeting a move back toward the 23.6% Fib (179.6) and supply around 181.5–182.0.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily structure (Aug–Dec): After a late-October spike to ~212, NVDA rolled over into November with a sequence of lower highs. November 25 printed the swing low at 169.55. Since then, price has built a horizontal range between ~174–186, punctuated by failed breakouts towards 188–191.
• Current regime: Range-bound consolidation with mild downside momentum fading. Price is oscillating around mid-to-low range and showing evidence of dip absorption near 175.
• Today’s candle (2025-12-16): Open 176.26, high 178.20, low 174.90, close 177.72. Green body with a notable lower shadow; intraday 60-min bar showed a sharp flush to ~174.23 followed by a reclaim and close back above VWAP. This is a classic failed breakdown/hammer-like session at a prior demand shelf.
• Hourly (today): Persistent grind higher from the open, a volatility spike down at 21:00 to 174.23, then a swift recovery to close 177.24 on that hour and 177.72 on the day. Closing above VWAP and reclaiming the breakdown level suggests responsive buyers active into the close.

2. Support, resistance, and levels (confluence-driven map)

• Immediate support: 176.0–176.7 (intraday demand/VWAP cluster) and 174.6–175.0 (multi-touch daily floor: 12/12 low 174.62; 12/16 dip 174.90; 21:00 flush 174.23 reclaimed). Below that: 172.9 (11/21 low) and 170.8–169.6 (11/25 swing low zone).
• Immediate resistance: 179.6 (23.6% retrace of Oct high → Nov low; also a frequent intraday pivot) and 181.2–182.0 (recent supply shelf). Above that: 183.4–185.6 (Bollinger mid/upper region + prior daily distribution), 188.0 (12/8 high), 191.5 (late Oct supply), 201–207 (gap-up failure zone from 10/28–10/31).
• Volume/behavior around levels: Heavy turnover on down legs in November established a broad value area 174–186. The swift rejection of 174.2 today and close back above 177 indicates buy interest is still present at the lower edge of value.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): Flat to slightly down near ~181–182, with price 177.7 below it—reflecting short-term bearish bias but proximity favors mean reversion.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Rolling over above price (low- to mid-180s). The slope down confirms the intermediate downtrend since late October.
• 200-day SMA (directional context): Likely still rising/slightly flat on a higher timeframe, but near-term price remains below faster MAs → consolidative corrective phase within a very long-term uptrend.
• Read-through: Near-term trend is neutral-to-bearish, but distance to the 20-day mean plus today’s reversal favors a bounce toward the mean before trend decisions at 181–182.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14, daily; visual approximation): Mid-40s to ~50. Neutral/slightly weak but turning up after tagging the lower range. Signals room for an upswing without being overbought.
• Stochastic: Likely curling up from sub-30 toward midline—supportive of a bounce from range lows.
• MACD (daily): Below zero but histogram appears to be contracting (less negative) after the early-December dip, consistent with waning downside momentum and potential for a short-term bullish cross on continued strength.
• Takeaway: Momentum is not strong, but the indicators have room to recover; the setup is more mean-reversion than trend-continuation.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14, daily; approx): ~5.5–6.5. Today’s range (~3.3) was smaller than ATR, but the late-hour flush intraday was notable. Given ATR, a 24h move of 3–6 points is plausible, supporting a target into 179.6–182.0 assuming support holds.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2; approximations): Middle band ~181–182, lower band ~173–175, upper band ~188–189. Today’s low interacted with the lower band area and price closed higher—typical of a BB mean-reversion bounce.
• Bollinger read-through: With price near lower band and a flat middle band, odds favor a revert-to-mean push toward 181–182 unless lower-band breaks decisively.

6. Ichimoku lens (directional context)

• Price is below the likely Kijun (~181–182) and probably below a thin, slightly downward cloud. Tenkan (~short-term midpoint) around 179–180. A close above Tenkan, then test of Kijun is the usual path in consolidations.
• Read-through: Cloud regime neutral-bearish; first objective is reclaiming conversion line (~179–180), then testing base line (~181–182).

7. Fibonacci structure (Oct high → Nov low)

• Swing high: ~212.2 (10/29 intraday). Swing low: 169.55 (11/25).
• Key retracements from 169.55:
  • 23.6%: ~179.6 (near-term pivot/resistance)
  • 38.2%: ~185.8 (upper range test)
  • 50%: ~190.9 (mid-Nov supply)
  • 61.8%: ~195.9 (tested 11/20–11/21 and rejected)
• Read-through: Price currently below 23.6%; reclaiming 179.6 opens path to 181.5–182.0 and possibly 185.8 on extension.

8. Candles and pattern diagnostics

• Today’s intraday flush and recovery created a lower-tail daily candle near the bottom of the 174–186 range—bullish rejection.
• Emerging double-bottom feel at 174.6–175.0 (12/12 and 12/16) with a shallow neckline near 181–182. Confirmation requires a decisive close above 182 with uptick in volume.
• No active bearish reversal pattern on the daily at current levels; instead, we have a failed breakdown attempt.

9. Volume and VWAP context

• Daily volume: ~147M today, lower than recent spikes but sufficient. The late-day recovery back above VWAP is constructive.
• Intraday VWAP: Price closed above today’s VWAP after a deep undercut—classic sign of responsive buying dominating into the close.
• OBV-style read (qualitative): Sideways in December—consistent with range trade rather than distribution.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (bullish mean reversion, ~55–60%): Early dip/pullback into 176.0–176.8 gets bought, leading to a push through 179.6. Momentum then tests 181.2–182.0 by late session/next morning. Expect intraday back-and-fill around 179.6.
• Alternative (failed bounce, ~25–30%): Rejection below 179.6 with a lower-high on intraday charts, followed by a retest of 175.0–175.5. If 174.6 breaks on closing basis, slide toward 172.9 could unfold.
• Tail risk (news/market shock, ~10–15%): Gap move beyond ATR into 183–185 or sub-172. Such moves likely need macro/stock-specific catalysts.

11. Trade plan and risk framing

• Setup type: Mean-reversion long from demand with nearby invalidation.
• Entry strategy: Buy limit in the 176.4–176.9 zone to capitalize on any early dip; this area aligns with intraday demand and just above the multi-touch 175 shelf.
• Profit objective (24h realistic): 181.5–182.0 (first resistance cluster and Kijun/BB mid area). This captures ~4.6–5.6 points from a 176.4–176.9 entry, within one ATR.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk planning): Below 174.2 (under today’s intraday flush and the 174.6 multi-touch floor). That preserves a roughly 1:2 to 1:2.5 R:R aiming for 181.5–182.0.
• Management: If price breaks and holds above 179.6 without dipping to the buy zone, consider a momentum add-on (not part of the single-price output) on a pullback hold above 179.6 targeting 181.5–182.0.

12. Synthesis and call

• Confluences for a bounce: Lower-band interaction, VWAP reclaim, hammer-like rejection at a known demand shelf, room in oscillators, and clear first upside magnets (179.6 and 181.5–182.0).
• Headwinds: Price below 20/50-day averages and under the cloud; medium-term trend still lower-highs. Expect sellers to defend 181–182 on first test.
• Net: Short-term (24h) path of least resistance is a tactically long mean-reversion toward 181–182, provided 174.6 holds on any dip. Open into strength only after confirming 179.6 if dip doesn’t come.

24h price path expectation (illustrative)

• Early session: Probe 176.8 ±0.3 → rebound to 178.8–179.8.
• Midday: Consolidate 178.5–179.8 → attempt through 179.6 pivot.
• Late session/next morning: Extension to 181.2–182.0 if 179.6 holds as support post-break.

Note: No single indicator guarantees outcomes; plan assumes no unexpected macro/stock-specific catalysts in the next 24 hours.