Comprehensive Technical Analysis of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Data)

Price Trend

• Strong Uptrend: Since March 2025, NVDA has staged an impressive rally from the mid-$90s to a closing high of $145 on June 12. Major swings include a sharp rebound from $94.31 (April 4) to $145 (June 12). That's a more than 50% appreciation in less than 2.5 months.
• Volatility: Despite the strong uptrend, NVDA experienced several periods of extremely high volatility — notably from late March to mid-April, with large daily ranges and volumes exceeding 400 million shares.
• Recent Acceleration: From May 29 ($139.19 close) to June 12 ($145 close), NVDA's price has climbed rapidly, showing bullish conviction.

Volume Analysis

• Volume Confirming Moves: High volume days correspond with major price movements (e.g., the surge on April 9's $114.33 close on 612M shares). More recently, upward runs have solid participation, confirming institutional involvement.
• Momentum Trend: Volume has tapered post-breakouts but remains above late-2024 averages, supporting higher prices.

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2. Short-Term Trend Analysis (Intraday/Hourly Data)

• Consolidation: On June 12, after the open, NVDA consolidated between $144.33 and $145 during market hours, with minor dips ($144.33-144.56) in the after-market session.
• June 13 pre-market: Price opened softer; $142.13 low and $142.36 last quote before 09:00, indicating potential short-term pullback or digestion after the run-up.

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3. Technical Indicator-Based Assessment

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• 50-Day SMA (estimated): The 50-day SMA is likely around $125–$130 (average of past 50 closes). At $145, NVDA is extremely stretched above its intermediate trend line, indicating potential overextension but also strength in momentum.
• 20-Day SMA: Estimated around $137–$140. Price well above this figure, defining a strong bull trend but with a risk of mean reversion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Estimated RSI: With such strong rallying, RSI is probably in the 75–80 range, which is overbought for most technical frameworks (over 70 is overbought). This warns of short-term exhaustion but isn't necessarily a sell signal in a momentum market.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• Momentum is strong: MACD line is likely well above its signal line, confirming the bullish trend. However, histogram peaks may be flattening, hinting that momentum is mature.

Bollinger Bands

• NVDA is likely at or above its upper Bollinger Band (20,2). Statistically, this indicates overextension. In trending markets, price can "walk the band," but sharp corrections can also result from these levels.

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4. Pattern Recognition & Price Structure

Breakout Confirmation

• NVDA broke strongly above the $140–$143 resistance (now support) over several days in June, confirming a structural upward breakout.
• Nearest support: $141.80-$142.60 range (recent closes and consolidation on June 11-13), then $140 (psychological & prior resistance).
• Nearest resistance: Next target is psychological $150 round number.

Candlestick Analysis

• June 12: Strong bullish candle into new highs with little upper wick — strong close.
• June 13 pre-market: Slight retrace, but price remains above prior supports ($142.13–$142.36 quoted). This is a textbook post-breakout retest.

Fibonacci Retracement

• From recent swing low (~$130, May 23) to breakout high ($145, June 12):
  • 23.6% retrace: ~$141.53
  • 38.2% retrace: ~$139.61
• The pre-market moves kissing $142 are nearly textbook 23.6% pullbacks, offering classic retracement entry zones.

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5. Sentiment and Order Flow

• Breadth: The rally has been broad, supported by strong sector flows into semiconductors and AI plays sector-wide.
• Order Book/Volume: Sudden high-volume surges coincide with breakouts.
• Institutional Participation: Ongoing high volume and steady uptrend suggest persistent accumulation.

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6. Statistical and Quantitative Considerations

• ATR (Average True Range): Recent daily ATR is roughly $3–$4, implying that $145 could easily swing $2–$5 intraday.
• Risk-Reward: A long entry near $142.35 with a target of $149.80–$150 (next round number resistance) yields an attractive risk/reward ratio if stop is maintained below $141.80 support.

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7. Synthesizing the Analysis

Bull Case

• Strong price momentum, recent breakout above multi-month resistance, confirming volume, sector momentum, post-breakout retest pattern.
• Pre-market consolidation at support after a breakout suggests buying pressure is reloading.

Bear Case

• Overbought readings (RSI/Bollinger Bands), extended from mean, potential for sharp pullbacks if broader market sentiment sours.

Probability-Weighted Outlook

• Given sustained institutional accumulation and sector tailwinds, probability favors further upside after a brief retracement.
• Pre-market retest of $142 zone provides low-risk entry to participate in upside.
• Momentum is mature but not exhausted; sharp profits can be taken into the next resistance (~$150).

Final Recommendation: Buy (Long Position)

• Open Price: $142.35 — favoring entry at current support, just above pre-market consolidation lows.
• Target/Close Price: $149.80 — targeting psychological $150 round number and next resistance.
• Stop Loss (implied): Not specified, but logical placement is just below $141.00 for prudent risk management.

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Actionable Trading Plan

• Enter long position at ($142.35).
• Target exit/close at $149.80 to capture breakout continuation.

Risks: Macro factors or sector pullback could invalidate short-term bull case; use stops.

Summary: NVDA has powerfully confirmed its breakout with volume, retested support at $142, and is set for a high-probability trip toward $150. Overbought signals warn of volatility, but breadth and order flow support continued upside over the next 24 hours.