Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA at a Rejection Ceiling: Sellers Defend 189–190, Next 24h Skew Turns Lower
Market snapshot (NVDA)
- Current price: 186.47
- Last regular session (2026-01-26 daily bar): O 187.16 / H 189.12 / L 185.99 / C 186.47 (lower close vs open)
- Intraday (hourly) structure today: steady grind down from ~187.35 area into 186.27 late print; notable anomalous wick at 21:00 showing a deep low (173.80) that is likely a data glitch/outlier (inconsistent with surrounding prints). I will exclude that low from volatility/support calculations.
1) Trend & structure (multi-timeframe)
Daily trend (last ~3 months shown)
- Price action since late Nov/Dec formed a basing range after the sharp selloff (Nov 20–25).
- Since mid-December lows (~170.94 on 12/17), NVDA has been in a recovery channel but with lower momentum into January.
- January shows a failed push higher and then a sharp dip on 01/20 to 178.07, followed by a rebound back toward 187–189.
Read: intermediate trend is range-to-slightly-up, but near-term (last few sessions) is stalling under resistance.
Near-term structure (Jan 20 → Jan 26)
- 01/20: big down day to 178.07 (capitulation-like)
- 01/21–01/23: rebound to 187.67
- 01/26: attempted continuation (high 189.12) but closed back down to 186.47
Read: classic rebound-then-distribution feel: buyers can push to ~189, but sellers defend and fade.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price geometry)
Key resistance zones
- 188.90–189.70: repeated rejection zone (01/15 high 189.70; 01/23 high 189.60; 01/26 high 189.12).
- 191–193: prior congestion/peaks in early Jan; would require renewed momentum.
Key supports
- 186.00–185.70: today’s intraday lows and repeated hourly holds; also close to the 01/26 daily low (185.99). Immediate “line in the sand.”
- 184.80–183.90: 01/22 close 184.84 and 01/14 low area; likely next demand pocket.
- 182.40–181.00: multiple pivots from early/mid Jan.
- 178.10: major swing low (01/20) = structural support.
Implication: at 186.47, price is mid-range, closer to near support (186) but still under heavy overhead resistance (189–190).
3) Candlestick / price action signals
- 01/26 daily candle: advance attempt to 189.12 followed by fade to 186.47 → upper wick / rejection.
- Hourly sequence: lower highs after the 14:30 spike; closes cluster ~186.4–186.8 → bearish consolidation.
Signal: short-term participants are selling strength; bulls are not following through.
4) Momentum indicators (inferred from closes)
(Exact indicator values require full computation windows; below is a robust directional read from the provided series.)
RSI-style momentum (14-ish days, directional)
- The rebound from 178 → 189 happened quickly, but the inability to hold above 187–188 and the fade on 01/26 suggests RSI likely rolled over from neutral-to-slightly-bullish back toward midline.
- Not seeing the “persistent higher closes” typical of an RSI breakout regime.
Interpretation: momentum is cooling, favoring mean reversion downward unless 189+ breaks.
MACD-style regime
- The rebound leg (01/20–01/23) likely pulled MACD histogram positive/less negative.
- The last sessions (01/23–01/26) look like histogram contraction and potential bearish turn.
Interpretation: momentum upswing is losing steam.
5) Volatility & range (ATR-style reasoning)
Using recent daily ranges:
- 01/23 range: 189.60–186.82 ≈ 2.78
- 01/22 range: 186.17–183.93 ≈ 2.24
- 01/21 range: 185.38–178.40 ≈ 6.98 (event spike)
- 01/26 range: 189.12–185.99 ≈ 3.13
Normal day lately looks like ~2.5–3.5 points, with occasional larger spikes.
Implication for next 24h: a reasonable expectation is a move of ~±3 from the open area, with skew downward if 186 breaks.
6) Volume & participation
- The 01/20 drop had elevated volume (~223M) → sellers strong.
- The rebound days had decent but not extreme volume, and 01/26 volume (~124M so far on daily bar) is not screaming accumulation.
Interpretation: rebound looks more like short-covering + tactical dip-buying than fresh institutional accumulation.
7) Pattern recognition (classical)
Range with overhead supply
- Price repeatedly tests 189–190 and fails → suggests overhead supply.
Potential bear flag (intraday)
- After the 14:30 thrust up, subsequent hours drifted lower in a tight band → can act as a bear flag if it breaks under 186.
Trigger levels:
- Bearish continuation: < 185.90–186.00 (break of today’s floor)
- Bullish invalidation: > 189.20 (reclaim and hold above rejection zone)
8) Forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (highest probability)
- Mild bearish / mean reversion: price tests 185.8–185.0, possibly probing into 184.8–183.9 if risk-off tape appears.
- Likely closes/holds below 188.5 unless there’s a catalyst.
Bull case
- If NVDA reclaims 189.2 and holds, squeeze toward 191–193 becomes plausible.
Bear case
- Break and acceptance below 185.8 opens a quick move to 184.8, then 183.9.
Probability-weighted bias: down / sell rallies.
9) Trade decision logic
- Overhead resistance is well-defined (189–190) with multiple rejections.
- Current price is below that ceiling and intraday action shows distribution.
- Risk/reward favors a short entry near resistance or on breakdown.
Decision: Sell (Short)
10) Optimal order placement (based on current price)
Given price is 186.47 (mid-lower part of today’s range), the better edge is typically:
- Sell on a bounce into resistance, not at mid-range.
- Use nearby invalidation above the rejection band.
Preferred open (limit): 188.80 (sell into the 188.9–189.7 supply zone)
- This aligns with repeated rejection area while keeping risk defined.
Take-profit (close): 184.90
- First meaningful support pocket (184.8–183.9). Conservative TP at the top of that zone improves fill probability.
(If price never bounces to 188.80 within 24h, the setup is simply not triggered; forcing a short at 186.47 is lower quality.)