NVDA Coils Above the 20-Day: Setting Up a Buy-the-Dip Shot at 190

Comprehensive multi-method technical assessment for NVDA (closing context: $185.55; latest intraday swings to $187.99 high, with a late bar printing a spike to ~$191.61 and a transient low print ~$179.99; session volume elevated)

1. Market structure and trend (daily)

• Structure: After peaking at 212.19 (10/29), NVDA declined into a swing low at 172.93 (11/21), then staged a recovery with higher lows: 177.00 (11/28), 179.59 (12/03), 182.41 (12/05). Today’s low ~182.40 respects this rising sequence, keeping the near-term uptrend intact.
• Bias: Short-term bullish within a medium-term corrective structure (a-b-c down likely completed at 172.93, now retracing the Oct–Nov drop). Price is back above the 20-day moving average and attempting to build acceptance in the 184–186 zone.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~184.35. Price closed above the 20SMA; constructive.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~183.9–184.5. Price also above/basically in line, suggesting an emerging positive slope and a potential bullish MA stack (20 crossing above 50 imminent/ongoing).
• 200-day SMA (approx): mid-to-high 170s (≈175–178). Price well above, confirming primary uptrend intact despite the recent correction.
• EMAs (8/21 estimate): EMA8 ≈184.9, EMA21 ≈183.6; 8 > 21, bullish short-term alignment. Price oscillating just above both. Impact: With price reclaiming the 20/50-day region and 8>21 alignment, the path of least resistance leans upward into overhead resistance clusters.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx calc): ~55. Mildly bullish, far from overbought. Room to push into 60s if resistance breaks.
• Stochastics: Likely mid-to-high band after recent rally; no clear overbought extremes on daily closes.
• MFI/CMF (qualitative): Recent up days closed in upper halves with better volume; accumulation bias mildly positive. No persistent distribution signatures. Impact: Positive, but not exhausted—supports a continued grind higher into resistance.

4. MACD (daily)

• MACD line curling up and likely crossing above signal early December. Histogram near/above zero, strengthening. No bearish divergence on the recovery leg. Impact: Confirms a turn-from-correction and supports a push toward 188–192 if price can hold above 183–184.

5. Volatility and Bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 184.35; upper band ≈ 191.5–192; lower band ≈ 177.1. Today touched upper-band vicinity intraday (~187.99 day high; ~191.6 late bar) and faded to mid-band region—classic consolidation at resistance.
• ATR(14) (est): ~5.8–6.5. Recent daily ranges fit this regime; expect 5–7 point swings to persist near-term.
• Keltner Channels (est): Center near 20EMA; upper envelope in the 192–194 area. This aligns with Fib 50% and daily R2. Impact: Bands frame upside margin to ~191–193 before hitting stretched territory; downside to ~177–179 if a volatility expansion turns risk-off.

6. Fibonacci mapping of the correction

• Swing: High 212.19 (10/29) to Low 172.93 (11/21); range = 39.26.
• Key retracements from 172.93: 38.2% = 187.93; 50% = 192.56; 61.8% = 197.20.
• Price action: Today worked into the 38.2% region (187.9) and briefly printed near the 50% zone intraday on the anomalous hourly bar. Rejection at/near 188–192 the first time is normal; acceptance above 188 opens 190–192.6. Impact: The 187.9–192.6 band is pivotal. A sustained hold above ~188 likely targets the 190–192.5 pocket next.

7. Horizontal support/resistance (confluence)

• Supports: 182.6–183.0 (pivot S1 and 12/05 close), 184.3–184.9 (20SMA/VWAP cluster), 180.6, 177.0 (11/28 low), 172.9 (swing low/invalidation of the recovery structure).
• Resistances: 187.9 (Fib 38.2), 188.2 (R1 pivot), 189.8–191.0 (supply/round number & late-bar high zone), 192.5 (Fib 50%), 195.0 (prior pivot), 200.0 (psychological/Oct shelf). Impact: The 184–185 shelf is the tactical battleground for buyers; overhead sellers likely reload 188–192 on first test.

8. Volume, participation, and breadth (qualitative)

• Today’s total volume (≈191M) outpaced recent sessions—bullish interest into resistance. Big down days in late Nov were followed by increasing dip-buy participation; OBV would be stabilizing to rising.
• Intraday liquidity pockets centered ~184.8–185.2 (VWAP cluster) and ~186.0–186.5. Impact: Demand is present on dips into mid-184s; supply sits 188–191. This argues for a buy-the-dip approach inside today’s value area.

9. Intraday microstructure for 12/08 (hourly highlights)

• Morning base near 182.6–183.1, breakout toward 185–186, then extension to 187.99.
• 21:00 bar printed an outsized range (191.61 high to 179.99 low) and closed near 189.2, followed by a 22:00 print at 189.175. CurrentPrice given as 185.55—suggests post-close fade/backfill. Treat the 179.99 extreme as potential stop-sweep/anomalous print; the more reliable intraday value consolidated 184.7–186.0.
• Session VWAP (est): ~184.8–185.1; price has oscillated just above VWAP, indicating buyers defended value on dips. Impact: The base built around VWAP favors re-tests of 186–188 if 183.8–184.5 continues to hold bids.

10. Pivot levels for next session (calculated from 12/08 H/L/C = 187.99 / 182.40 / 185.55)

• Pivot P ≈ 185.31
• R1 ≈ 188.23; R2 ≈ 190.90; R3 ≈ 193.82
• S1 ≈ 182.64; S2 ≈ 179.72; S3 ≈ 177.05 Impact: These align with Fib and horizontal zones. R1 overlaps Fib 38.2 (187.9–188.2) and S1 is right on the 12/05–12/08 reaction base.

11. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price has reclaimed Tenkan (≈183) and sits around/above Kijun (≈181.5–182). Cloud top seen near 186–188; price attempting to emerge above. Chikou span near price but improving if we push >188. Impact: A daily close above ~188 would turn Ichimoku posture more outright bullish.

12. VWAPs and Anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP ~184.9 acts as magnet. Anchored VWAP from 11/21 low likely tracks ~184.5–185 given accumulation since the low. Impact: Strong confluence for dip buys 184–185 with low-risk invalidation below 182.6.

13. Wyckoff lens

• Phase: After a markdown into 11/21, NVDA is in a re-accumulation range with a spring-like higher low on 12/03 and a successful test 12/05. Today’s foray into resistance is a classic “upthrust test” of supply. If pullbacks are shallow and volume dries on dips, expect a secondary test higher toward 190–192.

14. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Count 1: A-B-C corrective low at 172.93; current structure is impulsive leg (i) up to ~186–188, (ii) shallow pullback into 183–184, then (iii) extension toward 190–193. Invalidation: Lose 182 convincingly.

15. Gap/mean-reversion context

• Open gaps abound in the 188–192 zone from late October/early November distribution. First touch often stalls; second attempt more likely to fill. Today was first probe; odds favor consolidation, then a subsequent push higher if supports hold.

16. Risk, volatility, and options context (qualitative)

• Large round numbers and strike magnets: 185, 190, 195. Expect dealer positioning to defend 190 initially; breakthroughs can be sharp toward 192.5. Elevated ATR means stops should account for 2.5–3.5 points of noise on an intraday basis.

17. Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Confluence bullish: Price > 20/50DMA, RSI ~55, MACD positive turn, rising swing lows, VWAP support ~185, and strong dip buying behavior.
• Overhead friction: Fib 38.2–50% at 188–192.5; first test typically fades; need acceptance >188 to accelerate.
• Base case (60%): Chop-to-up bias. Early dip to 184–184.8 gets bought; rally re-tests 187.9–188.5. If 188 holds intraday, extension to 189.8–191.0 possible. Expected range 182.6–190.9 with a bullish close above 186.5.
• Bull case (25%): Immediate strength through 188.5, quick run to 190.9–192.5 (R2/Fib 50%), possibly tagging 193 on momentum before consolidating.
• Bear case (15%): Failure to hold 183.8–184.3. Break of S1 (182.6) opens a drive to 180.0–180.7. Below 179.7 shifts the tape back to defensive, aiming 177.0.

18. Trade plan (tactical)

• Strategy: Buy-the-dip into confluence support. Allow for early noise given ATR; use limit orders near VWAP/20SMA cluster.
• Entry (optimal): 184.30 buy limit (within the 184.0–184.6 support band: 20SMA/VWAP/Pivot confluence).
• Target (next 24h take profit): 189.70 (below R2 and beneath Fib 50% at 192.56; captures move into the 189.5–191 resistance pocket without requiring a breakout day).
• Stop (discipline, not part of order schema but recommended): 181.90 (below S1 182.64 and under the rising base). Risk ≈ 2.40; Reward ≈ 5.40; R:R ≈ 2.25:1.
• Add-on/scale: Consider partial add above 188.20 on acceptance (flip of R1) with tight trailer; raise stop to breakeven on core at 187.00.
• Invalidation: Two consecutive hours below 183.0 with expanding volume, or a daily close <182.0.

Conclusion: The weight of evidence favors a tactical long on weakness toward 184s, aiming for a re-test and potential partial fill of the 188–192 supply zone over the next 24 hours. Respect the 182.6 pivot as the bull/bear line for the session.