NVDA Defends Key Retracement Support: Is a $224 Retest Next?

NVDA 24-Hour Technical Outlook

Data basis: daily candles from May 4 through Aug. 31, supplemented by Aug. 31 hourly data. Last regular-session close is $220.78; the supplied live quote is effectively the same area. The isolated $235.9964 high in the final hourly record conflicts with the daily high of $221.30 and its immediate reversion, so it is treated as an anomalous print rather than actionable resistance.

1. Primary trend and market structure

• NVDA declined from the May peak near $236.54 to the late-July low at $190.01, then built a recovery sequence into the Aug. 27 high at $230.47.
• The Aug. 27 rally was followed by a sharp Aug. 28 reversal from $229.26 to a $217.55 close. That creates overhead supply between roughly $224.00 and $230.50.
• Despite that reversal, price held above the Aug. 24 low of $207.25 and closed Aug. 31 at $220.78, recovering from an intraday low of $216.21. This preserves the near-term higher-low structure from the Aug. 24 washout.
• The immediate bias is therefore constructive but not breakout-confirmed: a rebound from support is in progress, while the $224-$228 area remains a major test.

2. Moving-average and momentum read

• Approximate 5-day average close: $217.80.
• Approximate 10-day average close: $216.64.
• Approximate 20-day average close: $218.75.
• The $220.78 close is above all three short/intermediate averages. This is a positive alignment after the Aug. 24 decline and indicates that short-term mean reversion has turned upward.
• Price is only modestly above the 20-day average, not extended. That gives room for a move toward the next resistance zone before a momentum condition becomes stretched.
• Recent gains and losses imply a neutral-to-slightly-positive RSI-type condition rather than an overbought one. Momentum supports a measured recovery, but not a high-confidence vertical breakout.

3. Candlestick and intraday behavior

• Aug. 31 opened at $218.87, tested $216.21, and closed at $220.78. The close in the upper part of the daily range signals dip-buying demand.
• Hourly trading stabilized after the opening low and finished with a push from approximately $219.82 to $220.88 before settling near $220.61. This shows buyers defending the $218-$219 area.
• The main intraday ceiling is $221.30. A sustained move above it opens the path toward $222.20-$224.10; failure there would favor another test of $219 and potentially $217.50.

4. Support, resistance, and Fibonacci-style retracement zones

• Immediate support: $220.00-$219.10, an intraday pivot/consolidation area.
• Secondary support: $217.50-$216.20, defined by the Aug. 28 close and Aug. 31 session low.
• Major support: $214.50-$213.00, a prior reaction zone.
• Immediate resistance: $221.30, Aug. 31 high.
• Profit-taking resistance: $224.10-$225.30, prior August congestion and repeated swing-high area.
• Major resistance: $227.98-$230.47, the Aug. 27 surge high and subsequent reversal zone.
• Measuring the July $190.01 low to Aug. 27 $230.47 high, the 23.6% retracement is near $220.9 and the 38.2% retracement is near $215.0. Price is sitting near the shallow-retracement pivot and remains well above the deeper retracement zone, favoring a rebound attempt as long as $216-$217 holds.

5. Volume and participation

• The Aug. 27 advance occurred on exceptionally high volume of about 298.9 million shares, indicating strong event-driven participation.
• The Aug. 28 selloff also carried elevated volume of about 194.6 million shares, confirming meaningful supply and explaining why $224-$228 is likely to be difficult resistance.
• Aug. 31 volume near 124.0 million shares was lower than the two event-driven sessions but sufficient for a recovery day. The lower volume means this is a recovery move rather than definitive breakout confirmation.
• For the long setup, stronger confirmation would be price acceptance above $221.30 with expanding volume. Without that, the trade should target the first resistance band rather than the August highs.

6. 24-hour scenario assessment

Base case — moderately bullish: price holds $219-$220, clears $221.30, and rotates toward $223.50-$224.80. This is supported by the close above the 5-, 10-, and 20-day averages, a bullish recovery candle, and successful defense of the $216-$219 support region.

Bearish alternative: rejection below $221.30 followed by a close below $219.00 would weaken the rebound and expose $217.50, then $216.20. A break beneath $216.20 would invalidate the immediate bullish structure.

Trade conclusion

The risk/reward favors a Buy on a modest pullback into the $220.20 area rather than chasing strength above $221.30. The expected 24-hour movement is a controlled upside retest of the $224-$225 supply zone. The setup is tactical: it is based on support recovery, not on a confirmed breakout through the larger $224-$230 resistance shelf.

Market data can change rapidly; this is a technical scenario, not a guarantee of performance.