NVDA: Year-End Dip Sets Up a New-Year Pop — Buy the 186 Pullback, Target ~190

Note: This is educational analysis, not financial advice. NVDA is highly volatile; manage risk carefully.

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Moderately bullish after a three-session pullback into shallow Fib support, with breadth/volume not confirming heavy distribution. Expect a bounce toward 189.2–191.0 if 185.9–186.0 holds.
• Setup: Buy-the-dip near 186.0 (just above 23.6% retracement and around intraday support), targeting a retest of the 189–191 supply zone. Risk below 184.7.

1. Multi-timeframe Price Action Recap

• Daily context (Sep → Dec): NVDA advanced from the mid-170s to low-190s through late Dec after an October spike to 201 and subsequent correction. The December drive off the 12/17 swing low (170.94) staged higher highs/lows into the 12/26 high (190.53), then mean-reverted three sessions into year-end.
• Latest daily candle (12/31): Open 189.57, High 190.56, Low 186.49, Close 186.50. Red candle with upper wick: rejection near 190–191 and a close at the session low area. Pullback volume was not outsized versus recent up days, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than heavy distribution.
• Intraday (12/31): Persistent fade under the day’s VWAP, a stair-step lower from 189.6 into 186.5 by the close. Hourly prints show offers capping 189.6–190.6, bids stabilizing near 186.5–186.7 late day.

2. Trend Analysis: Structure, MAs, Channels

• Swing structure: Uptrend from 12/17 (170.94) to 12/26 (190.53), followed by a shallow A–B–C pullback to 186.5 (12/31). Higher-high/higher-low structure remains intact unless 183.7–185 breaks decisively.
• 20-DMA (approx): ~182.5 (computed from last 20 closes). Price = 186.5, above the 20-DMA → near-term uptrend bias remains.
• 50-DMA (est.): High-180s to low-183s given the last two months’ distribution; price likely above or near this band. Trend remains constructive.
• 200-DMA: Not computable from provided data; longer-term uptrend context for NVDA remains implied given 2025 macro/sector leadership but not assumed numerically.
• Regression channel (last 20 sessions): Upward sloping; price pulled back toward the median, consistent with bull-flag behavior.

3. Momentum Indicators

• RSI(14) daily (computed): ~53.1. Neutral-bullish; no overbought condition. Leaves room for a push toward 189–191.
• Stochastic (approx 14): Using H=192.69, L=170.31, C=186.5 → %K ≈ 72. Not overbought; corroborates RSI.
• MACD (qualitative): Bullish crossover occurred during the 12/17→12/26 advance; histogram likely contracting with the three-day pullback. Momentum cooling, not reversing; a small uptick on a green day could re-expand the histogram.
• DMI/ADX (qualitative): +DI above –DI post-rally; ADX likely in low-to-mid 20s, reflecting a developing but not exhausted trend.

4. Volatility, Bands, and Ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~4.8–5.0. Implies a typical session range of ±2.5–2.7% from spot.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ~182.5. Estimated upper ~190.9, lower ~174.1. Price sits in the upper half, just under the upper band region tested earlier this week; room exists to oscillate back toward 189–191 without band breach.
• Keltner Channels: Price pulled back from/near the upper KC toward the midline; a bounce to upper KC is plausible if bids defend ~186.
• Donchian (20-day): High 192.69, low 170.31; price in the upper 40% of range → trend still constructive.

5. Support/Resistance, Volume Profile, Pivots

• Key supports: 185.9–186.0 (23.6% retracement of 170.94→190.53), 185.1 (S1 pivot), 183.0–183.8 (38.2% retracement and prior closes), then 181.1 (S3 pivot) and 180.7 (50% retracement ~180.74). Major swing support 179.9–181.0 and 170.9.
• Key resistances: 189.2 (pivot R1, prior close zone 12/23), 190.5–190.6 (recent highs), 191.9–192.0 (R2), and 192.7 (20-day high). The October congestion 200–207 is higher-timeframe resistance not likely in the immediate 24h window.
• Classic pivots (calc from 12/31 H/L/C):
  • P = 187.85
  • R1 = 189.21, R2 = 191.92, R3 = 193.28
  • S1 = 185.14, S2 = 183.78, S3 = 181.07
• Volume posture: The 12/23–12/26 up days carried respectable volume; the subsequent three down days were on lighter volume than the prior surges, suggesting a constructive pullback. December point-of-control region appears around 182–184 with notable high-volume nodes near 187–188; closing under that HVN invites dips but also attracts responsive buyers.

6. Fibonacci, Measured Moves, Harmonics

• Fib retracement (12/17 low 170.94 to 12/26 high 190.53):
  • 23.6% = 185.91 (just below current price)
  • 38.2% = 183.05
  • 50% = 180.74
  • 61.8% = 178.43 Current print above 23.6% implies a shallow pullback (bullish). A hold >185.9 argues for trend continuation.
• ABCD concept: A=170.94 → B=190.53 (+19.59), C≈186.5 (≈21% retrace). A symmetry projection (C+AB) would target ~206, well beyond the 24h horizon but implies upside trend potential remains intact.

7. Ichimoku (approximate)

• Tenkan (9): ~184.5; Kijun (26): ~181.5. Price (186.5) above both → constructive.
• Cloud posture: With Tenkan > Kijun and price above the projected cloud top (Span A est. ~183), bias remains positive. No bearish TK cross evident.

8. VWAP, Anchored VWAP, and Intraday Microstructure

• Day-of VWAP (12/31) estimated ~188.0–188.5. Close under VWAP signals intraday sellers controlled the session; however, price approached a known support cluster into the close.
• Anchored VWAP from 12/17 pivot: Likely ~183.8–184.3 given subsequent accumulation. Price comfortably above anchored VWAP, suggesting the majority of longs from the pivot remain in profit and may defend dips.
• Order-flow hints: Repeated offer absorption attempts at 189.6–190.6; bids firming near 186.5–186.7 into the close → expect a tug-of-war between 186–187 (bids) and 189–191 (offers).

9. Candlesticks and Patterns

• 12/31 candle: Upper-shadow rejection near 190–191 after a gap-up open; not ideal, but the three-day sequence resembles a controlled bull flag rather than aggressive distribution.
• 12/23–12/26: Strong impulsive up thrust, followed by a low-volume pullback → classic continuation setup.
• No clear bearish engulfing or “three black crows.” Today’s close at the lows may invite an early dip, then potential reversal if buyers step in at 186–186.0.

10. Scenario Planning (Next 24h)

• Context caveat: Jan 1 is a U.S. market holiday; the “next 24 hours” includes limited trading (after-hours/ECN). The first full regular session is Jan 2. The following paths reflect the first active regular session.

Base Case (55–60%): Buy-the-dip continuation

• Early test of 186.0–185.9 (23.6% Fib) holds; price rotates back above the daily pivot 187.85 and pushes into 189.2 (R1). On momentum, extension tags 190.0–190.6. Close in the high 188s–190 region.

Bull Extension (20–25%): Breakout retest

• Opening strength clears 189.2 quickly; minor pullback to 188.7–189.0 holds as support; trend leg extends toward 191.0–191.9 (R2). Probability constrained by recent supply overhang.

Bear Detour (20–25%): Deeper mean reversion before uptrend resumes

• 186 fails; quick probe to S1 185.1. Responsive buying emerges around 184.7–185.1 (above 38.2% Fib at 183.0). Bounce finishes near 187–188. Only a decisive daily close below 183.7–185 would threaten the bull flag structure.

11. Risk Management and Tactics

• Entry tactic: Use a buy limit near 186.0 to get paid for providing liquidity at the 23.6% Fib/shelf. Alternatively, if price gaps above and holds over 189.2 (R1) for 15–30 minutes with rising volume, a momentum add/secondary entry is justified, but that is outside the primary “optimal” dip entry brief.
• Invalidation: A clean break and 30–60 min acceptance below 185.0 raises odds of a test of 183.8; below 183.0 (38.2%) the near-term trend thesis weakens materially.
• Suggested stop (discretionary): ~184.7 (beneath S1 and the local shelf) to maintain ~1.3 risk for ~4.2 reward to 190.2; R:R ≈ 3.2:1.

12. Synthesis and Call

• Confluence bullish: price above 20-DMA and Kijun; RSI ~53; shallow 23.6% retracement; OBV not showing clear distribution; December pullback on lighter volume; seasonality often supportive on the first January session.
• Overhang exists at 189.2–190.6, but the controlled nature of the pullback favors a retest rather than immediate trend failure.
• Therefore: Favor a tactical long on a dip into 186.0 with a target near 190.2 (into the lower end of the resistance band) within the next active session.

What Would Change My Mind

• A sustained break/acceptance below 185 (especially <183.8) accompanied by rising volume and heavier breadth deterioration would flip the bias to neutral/defensive, with downside magnets at 183.0 and 180.7.

Prediction (24h window, first active session):

• Range expectation: ~181.5–191.5 (±1× ATR). Higher probability path: 185.9–186.0 holds → push toward 189–191.
• Close expectation: upper-middle of the day’s range if bids defend 186 early.