Tradzar
NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI
NVDA at a Range Pivot: Failed 188 Breakout Signals a 24H Mean-Reversion Drop Toward 183–184
Market snapshot (NVDA)
- Current price: 185.81 (last prints around 185.50–185.81)
- Primary timeframe provided: Daily candles from 2025-09-15 → 2026-01-13; plus intraday hourly for 2026-01-13.
- Regime: Mean-reverting / range-bound since late Nov with sharp volatility events.
1) Trend & Market Structure (Price Action)
Daily structure
- Sep → late Oct: Strong impulsive uptrend (175 → ~207) with rising highs/lows.
- Late Oct → mid Nov: Distribution + breakdown from ~207–212 area into ~188, then failed bounce.
- Nov 20–21: High-volume selloff into ~173–179 (capitulation-like volume).
- Dec: Base-building and recovery attempt; lows around 170.94 (12/17), then rebound to ~190–192 into late Dec.
- Early Jan: Price is stuck below the 190–193 supply zone, repeatedly rejecting and rotating back to 184–185.
Key levels (from repeated reactions)
- Resistance / supply:
- 189.2–190.6 (multiple closes/opens; pivot in late Dec)
- 192.7–193.6 (early Jan highs)
- Support / demand:
- 183.0–184.0 (recent daily lows: 1/12 low 183.02; intraday 1/13 low 183.41)
- 180.0–181.0 (multiple December reactions)
- 174–176 (major swing support from Dec base)
Interpretation: Current price is in the upper-mid of a range (roughly 174–193) but still below the dominant supply at ~190–193. That biases near-term upside as limited unless 190+ breaks and holds.
2) Intraday Tape (Hourly 2026-01-13)
- Opened weak around 184.31, then rallied strongly to 188.11 (intraday breakout attempt).
- Later hours showed fade/rotation back to the 184.7–185.8 area.
- The sequence reads as: impulse up → failure to hold highs → distribution.
Micro-structure implication (next 24h): After failing to hold 188+, market often re-tests the nearest demand shelf (183.4–184.0) before any renewed attempt higher.
3) Momentum Indicators (inference from closes)
(Exact indicator values aren’t computable here with full precision without running calculations, but the directional signals are clear from the sequence.)
RSI-style behavior (daily)
- The Dec bounce (170.9 → 190–192) likely pushed RSI from oversold to neutral.
- Early Jan has flat-to-down closes around 186–189 then back to 185: typical of RSI rolling over near midline in a range.
MACD-style behavior
- After the Dec rebound, momentum likely peaked late Dec.
- Early Jan shows lower highs (192.93 → 193.63 then rejection) and sideways closes → consistent with MACD histogram contracting / mild bearish cross risk.
Momentum conclusion: Bull momentum is not expanding; it’s stalling beneath resistance.
4) Volatility & Range (ATR-style)
- Daily candles repeatedly show ~3–6 dollar ranges; occasional larger event days.
- Recent days (1/8–1/13) show compressed closes around 185–189 with intraday spikes → volatility exists but directional conviction is weak.
ATR implication for 24h: A realistic next-day move is often ±2–4 dollars from ~185.8, with tails to nearby levels.
5) Volume / Effort vs Result
- Major distribution signal occurred on Nov 20–21 with extremely high volume during the breakdown.
- The rebound since then has not reclaimed the prior breakdown zone (~200+) and is repeatedly capped at ~192–193.
- The 1/13 rally attempt to 188+ did not convert into a strong close near highs (intraday fade), suggesting buying effort met selling supply.
Conclusion: Sellers are defending upper levels; bulls lack follow-through.
6) Pattern & Market Psychology
Range / rectangle behavior
- Since late Nov: price oscillates between ~174–176 (lower demand) and ~190–193 (upper supply).
- Current price (~185–186) is closer to the upper half but still below the pivot resistance.
Failed breakout (intraday)
- 1/13’s push to 188.11 and retreat resembles a bull trap / failed continuation.
Pattern implication: Higher probability of mean reversion down toward 184/183 than immediate continuation to 190–193.
7) Scenario Forecast (next 24 hours)
Base case (higher probability): Down/sideways drift
- Expect a re-test of 184.0, potentially 183.4 (today’s intraday low).
- If 183.4 breaks, next magnet becomes 181.0–180.6.
Alternate bullish scenario (lower probability): Reclaim 188 and squeeze
- If price reclaims and holds 186.6–187.2, then 188.1 breaks, a run to 189.2–190.0 is possible.
- However, 190–193 is heavy supply; upside likely capped within 24h unless a strong catalyst appears.
Net directional bias (24h): Slight bearish / mean-reverting lower, with expected range roughly 182.8–188.5.
Trade Plan (technical)
Decision: Sell (Short Position)
Rationale:
- Range-bound market below major resistance (190–193).
- Intraday failed push to 188+ with fade back to 185.
- Better risk/reward shorting nearer resistance than buying mid-range.
Optimal open (entry) price
- Sell limit: 186.90
- This is a “better price” than current, near the post-fade pivot zone; it reduces chasing and improves R:R.
Take-profit (close) price
- Close / take profit: 183.60
- Just above the 183.4–184 demand shelf to increase fill probability before a bounce.
(Risk note: If price breaks and holds above ~188.2, the short thesis weakens quickly; the major invalidation is a sustained move into 190+.)