NVDA poised for a pivot-powered pop: buy the 187s, aim for the 191.5 Fib/R1 confluence

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: bullish-with-dip. Expect an early pullback toward 186.8–187.4, then a push to test 191.4–191.8; stretch to 193 possible if momentum persists.
• Decision: Buy the dip above the 50-day SMA; use a limit near the daily pivot.
• Key levels: Pivot (P) ≈ 187.15; R1 ≈ 191.39; Fib 50% retrace ≈ 191.57; S1 ≈ 184.96; 50-DMA ≈ 185.8; 20-DMA ≈ 180.3.

Price action and context

• From the 12/17 swing low at 170.94, NVDA has advanced to 189.21 (+10.7% in 4 sessions), reclaiming the 50-DMA and closing near the session high. Volume has been solid (12/23 ≈ 172.5M) and breadth improved after the quad-witching spike on 12/19 (≈ 325M).
• Intraday 12/23: steady grind from the 14:30 open (≈185.27) to 20:30 high (189.33). The 21:00 bar printed a wide range (189.39/183.69) but closed 188.75 with a long lower wick—bullish rejection of lows into the close. After-hours held ≈188.74.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-DMA ≈ 180.25 (rising). 50-DMA ≈ 185.80 (gently declining/flattening). Price (189.21) > 50-DMA and > 20-DMA: price leadership has flipped back to bulls even as the 20/50 crossover has not yet turned. This often precedes a 20>50 bullish cross if price holds above the 50-DMA for several sessions.
• Short-term EMA stack (implied): price has recaptured fast averages; expect 8–10 EMA support to trail in the 186–187s next session.

Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) ≈ 60 (calculated), up from mid-40s last week—bullish momentum, not yet overbought.
• Stochastic(14) ≈ 99: overbought on a fast basis, consistent with a strong 4-day run. Suggests dip/consolidation risk before further upside.
• MACD (12/26): qualitative read shows a recent bullish cross with histogram turning positive as price reclaimed the 50-DMA—supports buy-the-dip rather than chase.
• ADX(14): likely in the low 20s and rising—trend resumption phase after a base.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) ≈ 4.5 (2.4% of price). Expect a 24h swing range of roughly ±$4.5 from the session’s mean.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): with 20-DMA ≈ 180.25 and recent stdev elevated, the upper band sits near 189–190. Price closed at/near the upper band—typical pause/revert behavior favors a small dip first, then continuation.

Volume/accumulation

• Rising price on firm volume since 12/19, multi-day OBV improvement, and closes near highs indicate accumulation.
• The 12/23 lower-wick flush on the 21:00 bar suggests trapped shorts and responsive buying beneath 187–188.

Support, resistance, and pivots (derived from 12/23 H/L/C: 189.33/182.90/189.21)

• Pivot P ≈ 187.15 (prime buy-the-dip zone). R1 ≈ 191.39; R2 ≈ 193.58; S1 ≈ 184.96; S2 ≈ 180.72.
• Moving average supports: 50-DMA ≈ 185.8; 20-DMA ≈ 180.3.
• Horizontal levels: 183.7–184.0 (intraday shelf), 186.3–186.8 (prior congestion), 191.0–191.6 (Oct/Nov supply + 50% retrace), 193–195 (heavier supply zone), 198–202 (major overhead from early Nov).

Fibonacci mapping (swing high 212.19 on 10/29 to swing low 170.94 on 12/17)

• 38.2%: 186.71 (reclaimed 12/23)
• 50%: 191.57 (first upside target)
• 61.8%: 196.44 (secondary if momentum extends beyond 24h window)
• Current close (189.21) sits between 38.2% and 50%, favoring a push toward 191.6 after a shallow retest.

Ichimoku/structure/Elliott

• Price above base/conversion lines and likely above the cloud after the reclaim—bullish.
• Market structure broke up through prior lower highs; a clean higher-high print on 12/23.
• Elliott framing: Wave 1 off 170.94 to 180.99, Wave 2 to 174.14, Wave 3 underway toward 191–194.

Intraday VWAP and microstructure

• Session VWAP on 12/23 estimated in the 187.0–187.5 zone. A pullback into VWAP/Pivot confluence (≈187.1–187.4) is a high-quality entry with 50-DMA backup at ≈185.8.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 187.0–187.6 (pivot/VWAP), buyers defend >186.5, then trend to 191.4–191.8 (Pivot R1/Fib 50%).
• Bull extension (20%): Momentum persists with only a shallow dip; quick tag of 191.6, possible overshoot to 193.0–193.6 (R2) before consolidating.
• Bear risk (20%): Failure to hold 186.0–186.5 leads to a deeper mean-reversion toward 185.0 (50-DMA) and possibly S1 ≈ 185.0/184.9. Probability of a decisive break <184.5 in 24h is low without a fresh catalyst.

Confluence summary (why Buy-the-dip)

• Price above both 20- and 50-DMA with improving momentum and volume; reclaim of 50-DMA often precedes further upside.
• Pivot P ≈ 187.15 aligns with VWAP memory and prior intraday demand; R1 ≈ 191.39 aligns with Fib 50% ≈ 191.57—clean, symmetric trade path.
• Overbought fast oscillators argue against chasing at 189–190 and favor a tactical pullback entry.

Risk management notes

• Ideal protective stop (not part of the requested output): beneath 185.4–185.8 (50-DMA/last swing support). A tighter stop could sit just below 186.0 if prioritizing R:R.
• Key invalidation: sustained trade below 185.0 would negate the immediate momentum setup and shift bias to mean reversion into 182–183 or 180–181.

Prediction

• Expect NVDA to probe 187.x early, then advance to test 191.4–191.8 within the next 24 hours. A stretch to ~193 is possible if momentum/volume remain firm.