NVIDIA Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

NVDA’s High-Volume Reversal Signals a Bear Trap: 187 Break Test Next (24H Upside Bias)

Market snapshot (NVDA)

Current price: 185.41 (last print ~185.44)
Context: Strong rebound day after a sharp 4-day selloff into 171.88 (2/5 close), followed by a high-momentum reversal on 2/6 (day high 187, close ~185.41).

1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure

Daily structure (last ~3–4 months shown)

Range-bound / distribution feel since late Oct: multiple swings between ~170–212.
Key inflection: Late Jan push toward ~194 failed, then a fast dump:
- 1/30 close ~191.13 → 2/5 close ~171.88 (drawdown ~-10%).
2/6 candle: Open ~176.69 → High 187 → Close ~185.41.
- This is a bullish engulfing-style reversal versus 2/5 and partially offsets the breakdown.

Implication: Primary trend is not cleanly bullish; it’s a wide range. However, the short-term trend flipped up on 2/6 via a strong mean-reversion impulse.

Intraday (hourly) structure (2/6)

Clear trend day up: 172–177 morning → breakout and impulse at/after cash open (14:30Z) to ~182.65 → grind higher to ~185–187.
Late session prints show acceptance above 184–185 (several hourly closes around 184.45–185.41).

Implication: Buyers defended gains; not a blow-off top. This favors continuation or at least sideways-to-up next session unless a gap-down negates it.

2) Support/Resistance mapping (price-action)

Major supports

185.0–184.2: Intraday value area/acceptance; multiple hourly closes.
182.6–183.0: Prior breakout pivot (2/6 14:30 bar close ~182.65); typical first pullback support.
176–178: Prior intraday consolidation and the launch area.
171–172: Recent swing low zone (2/5 close 171.88; hourly low ~169.84 premarket).

Major resistances

187.0: 2/6 day high; immediate resistance.
188.5–189.7: Prior daily congestion (mid-Jan) and likely supply.
191–193: Late-Jan highs; broader range midline.

Implication: Price is sitting just below first resistance (187), so upside is possible but may require a retest/pullback before breaking.

3) Momentum & mean-reversion signals

“Selloff exhaustion → reversal” profile

2/3–2/5: persistent lower closes and large ranges (volatility expansion).
2/6: large bullish range expansion with close near upper range.

This often indicates:

Short covering + dip-buying, and
A 2–3 session relief rally window toward the next supply zone (188–193).

Rate-of-change (qualitative)

A +7–8% rebound off the low in one day suggests momentum has flipped positive; however, such rebounds often retrace 38–61% of the prior downswing.
Downswing approx: 191 → 171.9 (≈19.2 points).
- 38.2% retrace: 171.9 + 7.3 ≈ 179.2 (already exceeded)
- 61.8% retrace: 171.9 + 11.9 ≈ 183.8 (already exceeded/accepted)
- Full retrace: 191 (next bigger magnet)

Implication: With 61.8% reclaimed and holding above it late day, odds improve for a test of 188–191 within the next 24–48 hours—unless macro/news shocks intervene.

4) Volume & participation (important here)

2/6 daily volume ~223M, elevated versus many surrounding sessions.
The prior down days were also high volume (capitulation-like). A high-volume reversal after high-volume selloff is often a tradable low (at least temporary).

Implication: Participation supports the idea that 171–174 was a meaningful demand zone.

5) Volatility, ranges, and expected move (next 24h)

Recent daily ranges are wide (e.g., 2/6: low 174.6 to high 187 = 12.4 points).
After such a day, the next session commonly sees:
- Consolidation/pullback early into a pivot (183–185), then
- Either continuation to retest highs (187) and possibly extend (188.5–190), or failure and fade back to 181–182.

Base case expected 24h range: ~182.5 to 189.5.

6) Pattern work (classic setups)

Bullish reversal + reclaim of breakdown area

The 2/6 close (~185.4) reclaimed levels from earlier in the week (2/3 close ~180.34; 2/4 close ~174.19; 2/5 close ~171.88).
This is a reclaim pattern that often leads to follow-through.

Potential “bear trap” signal

The breakdown below ~175 held only briefly; the market snapped back above.
Bear traps frequently target the nearest liquidity above (187 then 190–191).

7) 24-hour directional prediction (probabilistic)

Bullish continuation / sideways-up: ~60%
- Likely path: dip to 183–185 → attempt 187 → extension 188.5–190.
Range consolidation: ~25%
- Likely path: 183–187 chop.
Reversal back down: ~15%
- Would require losing 183 decisively; then 181/178 become magnets.

Net: Upward bias for the next 24 hours, but expect pullbacks given proximity to 187 resistance.

Trade plan (decision + optimal entry)

Because price is just under resistance, chasing at 185.4 is suboptimal. The higher-quality setup is a pullback entry into the reclaimed pivot.

Preferred action: Buy (Long)

Open (optimal entry): 183.10
- Rationale: sits near the breakout pivot/support band 182.6–183.0, allowing better R:R than buying at resistance.
Close (take profit): 189.60
- Rationale: targets the next supply zone (188.5–189.7) while staying realistic for a 24h horizon.

If price never pulls back to ~183 and instead breaks/holds above 187, the plan would shift to a breakout entry—but per your request I’m providing a single optimal open price based on current levels.

Note: This is technical-analysis-based and does not account for after-hours news, macro events, or earnings guidance surprises, which can dominate NVDA’s short-term moves.