NWL’s Post-Earnings Coil: Buying the 3.21 Shelf for a Push into 3.33

Executive summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Slightly bullish (range-to-up). Expect a drift from 3.20–3.23 support toward 3.30–3.34 resistance, with a breakout attempt possible but not base case.
• Setup: Buy-the-dip near intraday VWAP/support cluster; take profits into 3.33–3.34 supply ahead of anchored-VWAP and recent swing high.
• Risk: Post-earnings overhang remains; a loss of 3.19–3.10 negates the long.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher-timeframe (daily): Strong primary downtrend. A major post-earnings gap-down on 2025-10-31 (H 3.80, L 3.09, C 3.40) on extreme volume (~68.2M) reset the regime. Since then, price compressed into a 3.09–3.34 range, forming a short-term base.
• Intermediate swings since the gap: L 3.09 (10/31) → retests and holds 3.10–3.12 zone (11/6–11/7). Highs capped 3.30–3.34 (11/10 intraday). The post-gap “acceptance” area sits 3.20–3.25.
• Near-term (intraday 11/10): Multiple rejections above 3.27–3.29, but a series of higher intraday lows into the close (session low ~3.21 vs last week ~3.08–3.10), signaling buyers stepping up.

2. Key levels (support/resistance)

• Support:
  • 3.21–3.23: Today’s VWAP neighborhood and heaviest intraday transaction zone; defended repeatedly.
  • 3.19–3.12: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of 3.09→3.34 (≈3.19) and last week’s defended shelf (3.10–3.12).
  • 3.09: Post-earnings capitulation low; critical line in the sand.
• Resistance:
  • 3.27–3.29: R2 pivot zone/overhead supply from repeated intraday stalls.
  • 3.33–3.34: Recent swing high; proximate anchored-VWAP resistance cluster.
  • 3.40: 10/31 close; next pivot if 3.34 breaks.

3. Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Post-gap participation: A one-day capitulation event followed by decreasing but still-elevated activity indicates institutional repositioning. Since then, most volume transacted between 3.20–3.25 (volume shelf), creating a Point of Control around ~3.23.
• Intraday 11/10 tape: Largest bars by volume occurred around 3.22–3.26; VWAP gravitated ~3.24–3.25 most of the session. Repeated rotations to VWAP were bought, suggesting a “VWAP magnet with buyer response” behavior.
• Implication: Price acceptance at 3.22–3.25 is constructive; if buyers keep absorbing offers there, a push to test 3.30–3.34 is favored.

4. Price action patterns and candlesticks

• Today’s structure: Narrow real body/indecision (doji-like) near equilibrium (R1 pivot) following higher intraday lows; typical pre-break test behavior inside a coil.
• Post-gap daily bars: Small-bodied candles with lower tails around 3.10–3.12 show dip demand. No decisive reversal candle yet, but the series suggests base-building.

5. Moving averages (approximations)

• 5-day SMA ≈ 3.17; price ~3.23 sits modestly above—short-term momentum tilts up.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 3.30–3.35 when including the 10/31 print; price is just below, creating overhead friction near 3.30–3.34.
• 20/50-day SMAs remain well above (legacy regime >5), confirming the dominant downtrend. Tactical longs should expect mean-reversion caps below longer MAs.

6. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Low-to-mid 40s, curling up; not overbought—room to press into low 3.3s.
• Stochastic (fast) on hourly: Rising from mid-range with room to cycle higher before saturation.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish cross emerged late session; histogram positive but small—supports a push to resistance, not a trend change.

7. Volatility and ranges

• Post-gap ATR (daily) compressed to ~0.12–0.15 after the shock. Intraday realized range today approx 3.21–3.34 (~0.13), aligned with that ATR.
• Keltner and Bollinger on a 10-period basis show contraction; price oscillates around the mid-band near 3.22–3.25 with upper band in the 3.33–3.36 area—room to tag upper bands without being extended.

8. Pivots and Fibonacci

• Classical pivots (using 11/7 H 3.20, L 3.08, C 3.17):
  • P ≈ 3.15; R1 ≈ 3.22; R2 ≈ 3.27; S1 ≈ 3.10; S2 ≈ 3.03.
  • Today respected R1–R2; late-session closes hovered around R1–VWAP—a neutral-to-positive sign.
• Fib (3.09→3.34): 38.2% ≈ 3.24 (current area), 61.8% ≈ 3.19 (key dip-buy zone). Price holding above 38.2% keeps a mild bullish skew.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan rising toward ~3.18–3.20; Kijun near ~3.30–3.32. This places price between Tenkan and Kijun—a typical “mean reversion to Kijun” setup into 3.30–3.32 if support holds.

10. Anchored VWAPs

• From the 10/31 gap day: AVWAP trails into the 3.30–3.33 zone after subsequent lower-volume days pulled it down. This aligns with resistance and the take-profit area.
• From today’s open: Intraday AVWAP ~3.24–3.25, repeatedly magnetized and defended.

11. Synthesis and path-of-least-resistance

• Confluences at 3.21–3.25: VWAP, volume shelf, R1 pivot vicinity, 38.2% Fib—buyers responding there.
• Overhead confluences 3.30–3.34: Swing high, Kijun/10SMA neighborhood, AVWAP resistance, upper Bollinger/Keltner edges—likely where sellers re-engage.
• Probabilistic view next 24h: 60/40 in favor of a range-to-up session:
  • Base case: Early probe down to 3.20–3.22, bought back to VWAP, then a push to 3.30–3.33.
  • Stretch: Quick stop-run above 3.34 toward 3.38–3.40 if momentum/volume expands.
  • Risk case: Lose 3.19 on volume → retest 3.12–3.10; a break of 3.09 invalidates the long and reopens the downside to 3.00.

12. Trade plan (tactical)

• Position: Buy-the-dip (Long) within the support cluster; scale out into first resistance.
• Entry (limit): 3.21 (inside the 3.20–3.22 demand pocket; slightly below current 3.23 to improve reward/risk).
• Take-profit (24h objective): 3.33 (just below 3.34 swing high/AVWAP cap to increase fill odds).
• Protective stop (discipline, not part of the requested fields): 3.09 (below capitulation low and S1/S2 pivot complex). Risk ≈ $0.12; Reward ≈ $0.12. Alternative tighter stop: 3.12 if prioritizing R/R ≥1, but higher stop-out risk.
• Alternate trigger: Momentum add above 3.30 (breakout) targeting 3.38–3.40; use intraday VWAP as trailing reference.

13. Risk management and execution notes

• Size modestly; overarching trend is still down. This is a tactical mean-reversion/bounce play, not a trend reversal bet.
• If the market gaps up above 3.30 at the open without a pullback, avoid chasing; wait for a VWAP retest or set a smaller breakout add with a tighter stop.
• If price accepts below 3.19 on expanding volume, abort the long idea—probability shifts back to testing 3.12–3.09.

Conclusion Given the post-earnings base, intraday higher lows, VWAP/volume support at 3.21–3.25, and a modest momentum uptick, the next 24 hours favor a grind toward 3.30–3.34. I prefer a limit buy near 3.21 with profit-taking into 3.33.

Note: This is a short-term tactical plan; conditions can change quickly around earnings overhangs and thin liquidity pockets. Use hard stops and respect risk limits.