Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Okta, Inc. (OKTA) – July 16, 2025

1. Price Action Overview

Over the past several months, OKTA has exhibited a pronounced downtrend from its late-May/early-June consolidation range (~$125–$100) into a deep slide toward its current price of $91.07. The selloff from the end of May—accompanied by a massive surge in volume on May 28 (28.7M shares vs usual 2–4M)—signified a sharp, possibly news-driven breakdown, sending the stock precipitously lower. Since then, price action reveals a succession of lower highs and lower lows, with only weak, short-lived rebounds.

2. Trend Analysis

• Long-Term Trend: The May 27 high of ~$127.5 and precipitous drop into the $100s delineates a structural break. Price has failed to reclaim any prior resistance, suggesting powerful bearish momentum.
• Intermediate Trend: From mid-June through mid-July, each recovery attempt stalls quickly, followed by freshly established lows. Failed rallies around $100 (July 1-9) and fresh lows into high $80s signal sustained selling pressure.
• Short-Term Trend: In July, the $92–$94.50 band provided momentary support, but persistent retests and breakdowns below $92 (July 10 and July 15-16) show bears remain in control. The price currently hovers near its lowest level since October 2023.

3. Volume Analysis

• The May 28 selloff was climactic, suggestive of panic or forced liquidation (possibly earnings, guidance cut, or sector shock).
• Recent sessions (July) have lower, but still elevated, volume, indicative of steady institutional distribution instead of retail panic.

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $92.00–$92.50 (recent breakdown zone)
• Intermediate Resistance: $94.30–$94.50 (July 11-14 closes)
• Support: $91.00 (psychological/technical), $89.78 (July 16 intraday low)
• Major Support: With price near multi-month lows, if $89.50 breaks, next support isn’t until $87.00 (gap fill zone from April 2023), then $83.50 (March 2023).

5. Candle Patterns and Microstructure

• Recent daily candles (July 10, 11, 15, 16) show long lower wicks, but no follow-through buying. Each bounce is brief and met with renewed selling.
• July 16th intraday: Each hourly candle after the open has failed to make a sustained higher high, showing overhead supply at every attempt above $91.20.
• Micro bounces lack true momentum—hallmark of a bear channel rather than base-building.

6. Moving Averages

• 20-day EMA: Sloped sharply down, currently around ~$97.00 (far above current price)
• 50-day SMA: Rolling over near $104; confirms the primary downtrend.
• 200-day SMA: Aging flat around $111, acting as long-term resistance.

7. Momentum Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14d): Roughly estimated at 27–31; oversold, but not at extreme historic stretches, and downward momentum remains intact.
• MACD: Negative, with widening histogram separation; shows persistent bearish momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Deep in oversold, but no bullish cross yet—suggesting no imminent relief bounce.

8. Volatility/Bollinger Bands

• Bollinger Bands: Price hugging/living outside the lower band for several sessions—a bear flag by volatility standards. Bands are widening, reflecting elevated volatility and confirming the intensity of the ongoing move.

9. Chart Patterns

• Descending Channel Formation: Lower highs and lower lows—downward channel is intact. No evident base, bottoming tail, or reversal formation.
• Gap Resistance: The May 28 gap ($125 to $105) is unfilled—price shows no inclination to re-challenge it.

10. Sentiment, Context, and Market Structure

• The failed support at $92 tells us that institutional investors are reducing risk—there’s little sign of value buyers stepping in at these levels.
• Underperformance vs. Nasdaq and similar SaaS peers increases likelihood of further negative re-pricing.
• A lack of earnings-driven reversal or news-related catalyst suggests the move is technically driven and likely to persist absent outside intervention.

11. Short-Term Trading Setup (24 hours)

• Probability Skew: Intraday charts show no reversal candle, no true buying at the close, and breakdowns are being confirmed by volume.
• Bearish Continuation: Strong likelihood of a move down to test $89.00, possibly $87.50 within 24 hours, barring a macro surprise.
• Risk/Reward: Optimal short entry is on a failed retest of breakdown zone $91.50–$91.80, with stop-loss just above $92.50 (prior hourly resistance). Target is the next liquidity pocket at $89.00.

12. Counter-Scenario

• While technicals are extremely bearish, a deeply oversold RSI does suggest eventual short-term bounce risk—however, no signal is present yet. No capitulation candle or bullish divergence.

Conclusion

• All technical signals (trend, volume, momentum, moving averages, pattern recognition, volatility) call for continued bearish action.
• “Buy the dip” strategies are contraindicated here; the path of least resistance is still lower, and the lack of a robust volume spike/reversal formation argues for staying short.

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FINAL SIGNAL: SELL (Short Position)

• Open Short: On a move between $91.40–$91.60
• Profit Target: $89.00 (may extend to $87.50 if momentum remains heavy)
• Stop Loss (not in this output but for context): $92.60

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Justification:

• Persistent breakdowns of all recent support levels
• Overwhelming institutional distribution and failed relief bounces
• Bearish momentum unrelieved by any reversal formation
• Technical and volume signals all aligned for further short-term downside into next support zone

NOTE: Monitor for capitulation reversal on a flush below $89.00, as eventual short squeeze risk rises further down. Not yet indicated at this stage.