ON Semiconductor: Failed Breakout at 51.6 Sets Up a Tactical Short Back to the High-48s

Summary and context

• Ticker: ON Semiconductor (ON)
• Currency: $
• Current price (as of 2025-09-17 ~21:00 UTC): 49.80
• Recent regime: After a sharp August markdown to the high-47s, ON has been in a sideways accumulation range roughly 47.0–52.3 through September. Today attempted a breakout to 51.6 intraday and was firmly rejected, finishing below the day’s pivot area near 50.

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-timeframe)

1. Market structure and trend

• Long-term: Below the falling 50-DMA and likely well below the 200-DMA (not computed herein), indicating the primary trend remains down to sideways after the July peak (~62+ in late July) and the early August breakdown. Medium-term bias: neutral to slightly bearish until a weekly close above 52.3–53.
• Intermediate-term (daily): Sideways range 47.8–52.3 since early August. Series of higher lows in September: 9/03 (47.79) → 9/04 (48.06) → 9/12 (48.26) → 9/15 (48.11) → 9/16 (49.56 close), suggesting modest accumulation. However, overhead supply 51.6–52.3 repeatedly caps rallies.
• Short-term (intraday 60-min): Today saw an impulsive leg up to 51.6 followed by a swift selloff to 49.03 and a late bounce to ~49.8–50.3. This creates a failed breakout / upthrust and a long upper wick, typical of supply dominance near resistance.

2. Key levels (supports/resistances)

• Resistance cluster: 51.6–52.3 • 51.6: Today’s intraday high; rejection zone. • 51.85–52.33: 8/22 close and 8/28 high; former range highs.
• Pivot and near-term balance: ~50.1–50.3 • Classic daily pivot (H+L+C)/3 for today ≈ 50.14. Price closed below this pivot, giving a slight bearish intraday bias into tomorrow.
• Supports: 49.6–49.8 (minor), 49.0–49.2 (intraday sweep today), 48.7 (S1), 48.1–48.3 (daily closes 9/12 and 9/15), 47.8 (range floor).

3. Moving averages (approximations)

• 20-DMA ≈ 49.4 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 49.8 is modestly above, suggesting slight short-term bullish bias but not a breakout.
• 50-DMA: Likely >52 and sloping down after the July peak and August decline, indicating medium trend still neutral/down. Price remains below this, keeping rallies suspect into the 52 area.
• 8-EMA/21-EMA (daily): Price trades around/between them; short-term momentum improved this week, yet today’s rejection at 51.6 halts momentum.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est.): Mid- to high-40s/low-50s—neutral. No overbought/oversold extreme; room for movement either way. The failure at resistance curbs bullish momentum.
• RSI (1h): Likely flipped from overbought (>70) during the rally to mid-40s after the reversal—short-term momentum turned down.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely near zero, potentially attempting a cross up earlier in the week; today’s selloff slows or delays that cross. Neutral leaning slightly positive but unconfirmed.
• MACD (1h): Bearish crossover following the failure at 51.6, consistent with short-term downside within the range.
• Stochastics (1h): Rolled over from overbought with price below the mid-band—supports a near-term mean reversion lower toward supports.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (rough est.): ~1.6. With current price ~49.8, a typical 24h band ≈ 48.2–51.4. Today’s high/low (51.6/49.03) already spanned ~2.6, implying a near-term volatility expansion that often mean-reverts the following session.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): 20-MA near 49.4 with upper band roughly ~52.2 and lower ~46.6 (est.). Price pulled back toward the mid after touching the upper zone today—typical of rejection near resistance.

6. Volume/flow analysis

• Daily volume recently 5–10M shares; today’s intraday pattern showed strong activity on the push to 51.6 followed by heavier sell volume into the reversal—distribution characteristics around overhead supply.
• Volume nodes: Repeated heavy prints around 49.7–50.3 since late August—likely a high-volume node/POC. Price tends to retest this area; failed holds above it often lead to tests of lower supports (49.0, then 48.7).

7. Candlestick and intraday pattern read

• Today formed a long upper shadow/failed breakout (upthrust) near 51.6 followed by a close below the session pivot. That’s a classic short-term bearish reversal signal within a larger sideways range.
• The hourly sequence shows a bull trap above 51 followed by a drop through 50 and a late-day attempt to reclaim 50 that failed to stick—suggesting sellers active into the close.

8. Fibonacci mapping

• From July swing high (~62.45) to August crash low (47.97): • 23.6% retracement ≈ 51.7—today’s rejection aligns perfectly with this fib level. • 38.2% ≈ 53.5—next resistance above the range if 52.3 breaks later.
• From the Sep upswing (9/16 close 49.56 → 9/17 high 51.6): A 61.8% pullback targets ≈ 50.33 and a 78.6% ≈ 49.86; price already moved below/around these intraday, implying momentum loss.

9. Pivot points (classic) for next session (based on today’s H/L/C)

• P ≈ 50.14; R1 ≈ 51.26; S1 ≈ 48.69. With a close under P and failure at R1 neighborhood, bias is for a test of S1 before any sustained move above P.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative inference)

• On 1h: After the failed breakout, price likely fell below Tenkan and toward/into the Kijun; the cloud ahead is flat-ish near 50.0–50.3, serving as a magnet/resistance area on bounces. This supports shorting retests of 50.1–50.3.

11. Pattern context (Wyckoff/Market Profile lens)

• Post-markdown accumulation range 47–52 since early August. Today’s push into the upper-third of the range failed (an upthrust rather than a sign of strength). Until there’s a decisive sign of strength above 52.3 with follow-through, the range top remains supply. Expect rotation back toward the mid/low of the range (50 → 49 → 48.7).

12. Confluence summary (what matters most right now)

• Bearish confluences for the next 24h: • Rejection exactly at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (~51.7). • Long upper wick/failed breakout and close below the daily pivot. • 1h momentum (RSI/MACD/Stoch) turned down. • Persistent overhead supply 51.6–52.3 aligned with the falling 50-DMA zone.
• Bullish offsets: • Daily higher lows since early September; price hovering above 20-DMA (~49.4). • Range support layered at 49.0 and 48.7 (S1).
• Net: Short-term bias is for a pullback/mean reversion to 49.0–48.9 before reassessing. Upside attempts likely stall near 50.1–50.3 unless a new catalyst forces a decisive break.

Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Rotational fade lower from 50.1–50.3 toward 49.0–48.9. Expect intraday bounces at ~49.6 and 49.2; S1 ~48.7 is the stretch target.
• Bull case (25%): Quick reclaim of 50.3 pivot with acceptance above leads to a retest of 51.0–51.3; still likely capped below 51.6 unless volume expansion and broad strength emerge.
• Bear case (15%): Momentum accelerates through 48.7 S1 into 48.1–48.3. Would require risk-off tape or negative catalyst.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Edge: Fade the failed breakout by selling a retest of the daily pivot band (50.1–50.3) with a target near S1 cluster (48.7–49.0).
• Entry: Short limit near 50.20 (retest of pivot/POC zone), given current price 49.8 often mean-reverts to the pivot.
• Target (24h): 48.90 (above S1 48.69 to improve fill odds and respect front-running).
• Risk framing (not part of the asked fields, but critical): A protective stop could sit above 51.35–51.40 (above R1/failed breakout zone), giving an approximate R:R of ~1:1.9 from 50.20 → 48.90 with a ~1.15 stop, or tighter if using intraday structure.

Probability-weighted view

• With the confluence of intraday reversal signals, pivot rejection, and overhead resistance alignment with Fibonacci and the falling intermediate MAs, the near-term odds favor a drift lower before ON can sustainably challenge and clear 51.6–52.3.

Conclusion

• Short-term (next 24 hours): Expect a test of 49.0–48.9, with bounces likely sold under 50.3. If price instead builds acceptance above 50.3, risk of a squeeze toward 51.1–51.3 rises, but 51.6 remains the key ceiling.