ONDS primed to test R1 → R2: Buy the 8.95 dip, target 9.68 within 24 hours

Below is a comprehensive, step‑by‑step technical assessment of ONDS using multiple methods and timeframes, followed by a 24‑hour price path outlook and an actionable trade plan.

1. Market regime and trend context (multi‑timeframe)

• Primary daily trend: Up since mid‑November. Price has recovered sharply from the Nov 20 swing around 6.27 and printed successive higher highs into early December (peak zone 9.75–9.86), followed by a single‑day pullback (Dec 10), and a bullish re‑acceleration (Dec 11 close 9.02).
• Position vs moving averages: • 20‑day SMA ≈ 8.00 (approximate). Price at 9.02 sits ~12–13% above, confirming a bullish intermediate trend. • 10‑day EMA ≈ 8.7–8.8 (est.). Price reclaimed and closed above the short‑term EMA, a near‑term momentum positive. • 50‑day SMA trending higher (est. mid‑7s to low‑8s). The 20>50 alignment suggests a positive trend structure.
• Structure: Since late Nov, price carved a sequence of higher lows (7.58 → 8.07 → 8.32) and higher highs (8.72 → 9.19 → 9.86). The Dec 10 flush to 8.33 appears corrective in a broader uptrend.

2. Key levels, supply/demand, and pivots

• Immediate supports: 8.90–8.95 (intraday shelf and near 10‑EMA), 8.70–8.75 (VWAP/pivot zone), 8.55 (intraday reaction), 8.40 (S1 pivot), 8.12 (Dec 11 low).
• Immediate resistances: 9.08–9.10 (intraday cap), 9.23 (Dec 9 close), 9.34–9.36 (R1 cluster with early‑Dec high), 9.70 (R2), 9.75–9.86 (recent swing‑high supply band).
• Classic floor pivots using Dec 11 (H=9.08, L=8.12, C=9.02): • Pivot P ≈ 8.74 • R1 ≈ 9.36, S1 ≈ 8.40 • R2 ≈ 9.70, S2 ≈ 7.78 Current price above P and below R1 suggests an upside continuation bias with R1 as first magnet.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx.): ~67. Neutral‑to‑bullish, not yet at extreme, leaving room to test R1/R2 without immediate overbought stress.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Rising from mid‑band toward 70–80 after a one‑day shakeout; buy‑signal behavior.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Positive territory; histogram likely re‑expanding after Dec 10 pullback. Bullish continuation signal if lines stay crossed up.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (est.): ~0.85–0.95. Implies typical daily swing ~±0.9 around spot. From 9.02, a one‑ATR upside projects ~9.9; downside ~8.1.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2) (approx.): Mid ~8.0; Upper ~9.7; Lower ~6.3. Price is traveling middle‑to‑upper band, a classic bullish drift zone with room to probe upper band (~9.7).
• Keltner Channels (qualitative): Price near/up through the upper band tends to coincide with impulsive legs during this trend phase.

5. Volume/flow and accumulation

• OBV/Accumulation (qualitative): November–December up legs have generally occurred on bigger volume than down legs (e.g., 11/24, 12/03–12/05, 12/11), consistent with net accumulation.
• Dec 11 intraday saw rising price with healthy volume on up‑swings, suggesting buyers controlled into the close.

6. Intraday structure, VWAP, and micro levels (Dec 11 h‑data)

• Price action: Early dip to 8.12, steady bid reclaim, then higher highs into 9.02 close. Trend day characteristics.
• VWAP (session, approximate): ~8.7–8.8. Close above VWAP is a bullish tell; pullbacks toward VWAP tend to attract dip buyers in an up regime.
• Micro supports: 8.44–8.46 (15:30 bar area), 8.55 (reaction support), 8.70–8.75 (VWAP/pivot confluence).

7. Fibonacci mapping (recent swing)

• Swing low (11/20) ~6.25 to swing high (12/09) ~9.86 → range 3.61. • 38.2% retrace: ~8.48; 50%: ~8.06; 61.8%: ~7.63.
• The Dec 10 low at ~8.33 pierced below 38.2% but stayed above 50%, a textbook corrective pullback within an uptrend.
• Extension targets from the 8.33 trough: 1.0x swing projection points toward the prior highs (9.75–9.86); intermediate 0.618–0.786 extensions align near 9.35–9.60, complementing R1/R2 bands.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is above an estimated Kijun and above cloud (given the 26‑period midpoint is far below current). Bullish state. Tenkan rising and price above Tenkan typically favors continuation, especially when supported by volume.

9. Pattern recognition and tape tells

• Candles: Dec 10 printed a wide‑range down close near the lows, but Dec 11’s strong green close that reclaimed the prior breakdown zone resembles a bullish “bear‑trap” follow‑through rather than sustained distribution. Intraday progression formed a series of higher lows with small consolidations — a constructive tape.
• Wyckoff lens: The dip to 8.12 intraday functioned like a local Spring/Shakeout; subsequent rally into the close suggests Phase D (markup) returning.
• Micro bull flag behavior present on 18:30–20:30 bars, with a close near highs, improving odds of early next‑session upside probe.

10. Confluence summary (why an upside bias)

• Trend: Up on daily; price above 10/20/50 MAs.
• Momentum: RSI ~67 and MACD positive; room before extreme.
• Location: Above daily pivot P (8.74), below R1 (9.36) with a path to test R1/R2.
• Vol/Flow: Accumulation bias; VWAP reclaim and hold on Dec 11.
• Fib/Targets: 9.35–9.60 aligns with R1/partial extensions; 9.70 aligns with R2 and upper Bollinger.
• Risk: Supports stacked below (8.95 → 8.75 → 8.55 → 8.40), providing defined invalidation zones.

11. 24‑hour price path expectation

• Base case (bullish continuation, ~55–60%): Early test of 9.23 then 9.34–9.36 (R1). If R1 breaks and holds, momentum carry to 9.60–9.70 (R2/upper band) is plausible intraday.
• Neutral chop (25–30%): Pullback to 8.85–8.95 (10‑EMA/VWAP zone), then range 8.90–9.30 as the market digests Dec 11 gains before another attempt higher.
• Bear risk (15–20%): Loss of 8.85 → 8.70–8.74 pivot/VWAP test. A decisive break below 8.55 would open 8.40 (S1). This is the invalidation area for the short‑term long idea.
• Expected day range: Low 8.55–8.75; High 9.36–9.70, skewed upward barring fresh negative catalysts.

12. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip in the 8.90 area where micro support, rising short MAs, and prior VWAP converge.
• Entry (limit): 8.95 (tighter than 8.90 to increase fill odds while still below spot).
• Profit target (next 24h): 9.68 (just under R2/upper band and below supply at 9.75–9.86 to maximize fill probability).
• Risk framing (not an order here, but for context): A prudent stop would sit below 8.40 (S1/pivot break) to avoid shakeouts; tighter traders may use 8.55.
• Reward/Risk illustration: Entry 8.95 → TP 9.68 (reward ≈ +0.73). If using a tactical stop 8.55 (risk ≈ −0.40), R:R ≈ 1.8:1; if using 8.40 (risk ≈ −0.55), R:R ≈ 1.33:1. Acceptable given trend and confluence.

Bottom line and decision

• With price above the daily pivot and VWAP, momentum firm, and multiple tools aligning toward an R1→R2 test, the higher‑probability path for the next 24 hours is a push into 9.36 then 9.60–9.70, provided 8.70–8.90 holds on dips. I favor a long with a limit near 8.95 and a take‑profit at 9.68 in the next session.

Note: ONDS is a high‑volatility small cap; slippage and gaps can occur. Position sizing and discipline are critical.