OPEN: Reversal Day Sets Up A Buy-the-Dip Into 6.65 For A Push Toward 7.45

Overview and context

• Instrument: Opendoor Technologies (OPEN)
• Currency: USD
• Current price (latest print): 6.75
• Date/time context: 2025-11-22 (weekend). Next cash session: Mon, 2025-11-24. Analysis focuses on the next trading day (~24h of market activity once cash opens).

Market structure and regime

• Regime: High-beta, event-driven name with episodic momentum (e.g., 8/22–9/12 melt-up to 10.52 on extreme volume), followed by multi-week distribution and corrective downtrend into mid-November.
• Recent path: After a sharp Nov bounce (11/10–11/12 to 9.37), price retraced steadily into 11/20 low at 6.14, then a powerful reversal day on 11/21 closing 6.75 (open=low=6.23, high=7.03) on elevated volume (159.9M). That reversal day had “initiative buying” characteristics.

Key levels (support/resistance, gaps, volume nodes)

• Immediate support: 6.55–6.60 (cluster around 11/6–11/7 closes and 11/19 close), then 6.20–6.30 (11/20 low 6.14; demand stepped in).
• Immediate resistance: 6.95–7.10 (11/20 high 6.97, 11/21 high 7.03) — first supply shelf. Above that: 7.30–7.50 (local swing congestion from late Oct), then 7.80–8.15 (confluent with Ichimoku Tenkan/BB midline/Fibo), then 8.48–8.56 and 9.00+.
• Gap context: 11/7 gapped down from 6.56 open 5.33 (capitulation), then 11/10 gap up to 6.84 created a 6.56–6.84 gap zone that has now largely been filled by the recent dip (11/19 low 6.55). Price currently trades inside this previously gapped supply; a retest of the upper boundary (~6.84–6.95) is likely.
• Volume profile (qualitative): High-volume node (HVN) 6.6–6.8 building over mid-Nov; prior larger HVN around 7.8–8.2 from October congestion (overhead supply). Between 6.95 and ~7.30 is a relatively thinner zone; a push through 7.00 can accelerate toward mid-7s before running into heavier supply.

Trend analysis

• Higher timeframe: From the 9/11 blow-off top, price entered a descending channel through October into mid-November. The 11/20 low appears to be a local exhaustion low within that channel.
• Short-term: 11/21 candle suggests a potential break of the immediate down-sloping micro trendline drawn off 11/12→11/13→11/14→11/17 highs. Close at 6.75 is constructive but still below the 6.95–7.10 pivot that would confirm a short-term trend inflection.

Moving averages

• 5–10 day EMAs: Rolling over but curling up after 11/20; price reclaimed the 5D area and is attempting to reclaim the 10D. This typically precedes a test of the 20D.
• 20-day SMA (approx): ~7.4–7.6 (given the cluster of closes 7.5–9.3 earlier in the month). Price at 6.75 is below the 20D SMA; a mean-reversion impulse toward the mid-band is favored after tagging lower bands.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~8.0–8.3. Still above; medium-term downtrend intact until higher lows/highs are established above 7.8–8.0.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Lower band was probed on 11/20 (low 6.14). 11/21 closed back inside the bands with a strong green body — classic mean-reversion trigger. A follow-through move toward the middle band (~7.5) is statistically common.

RSI/Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) qualitative estimate: rebounded from near-oversold (low 30s) on 11/20 to mid/upper 40s. This forms a bullish momentum inflection; room remains before overbought (70), supporting a continuation bounce.
• Stochastics: Likely crossing up from oversold, consistent with a 1–3 session upward impulse.
• MACD: Histogram flattening and curling up; signal-line cross likely in the next 1–3 sessions if price holds above 6.60 and pushes through 7.00.

Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Price below cloud; cloud ahead is likely bearish and thick (given prior volatility). Tenkan (9-period mid) ≈ (H9+L9)/2 with H9 ≈ 9.45, L9 ≈ 6.14 → ~7.80. Kijun (26 mid) likely ~8.3. Takeaway: overhead resistances 7.8 and 8.3 are strong. However, a mean-reversion path to Tenkan (~7.8) is plausible after a spring low.

Fibonacci mapping (from 11/12 high 9.37 to 11/20 low 6.14)

• Range: 3.23. Key retracements from the low:
  • 38.2%: 7.38 (aligns with late-Oct supply)
  • 50%: 7.76
  • 61.8%: 8.14
• Current at 6.75 sits below 38.2%; first upside magnet is ~7.35–7.40, then ~7.75–7.80.

Candles and patterns

• 11/21: Bullish Marubozu-type day (open=low=6.23, strong close 6.75). This often produces 1–2 days of follow-through, especially when occurring off a multi-day pullback and near a prior demand shelf.
• Potential bullish divergence: Price made a marginal new swing low on 11/20 (6.14) but momentum and volume characteristics suggest selling pressure was less aggressive than earlier in the week — a setup for a reversal day, which occurred 11/21.

Volume and breadth

• 11/21 volume (159.9M) > 20D average, signaling accumulation interest on the reversal. OBV would tick higher. A strong green candle on elevated volume is a positive breadth signal.

Wyckoff lens

• After a distribution and markdown, 11/20 resembles a spring/shakeout below the 6.55 support band, followed by a Sign of Strength (SoS) on 11/21. Typical sequence: SoS → Backup (B.U.) retest ~6.55–6.65 → continuation toward 7.3–7.8. Expect a shallow intraday pullback early next session that is bought.

Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• From 11/7 shock day: AVWAP likely tracks ~6.8–7.0; price is oscillating around this anchor. A sustained hold above ~6.90 would signal buyers gaining control vs. this event anchor. From the 9/11 spike, AVWAP still above (likely >8), representing longer-term supply overhead.

ATR/volatility and expected move

• Recent daily ATR ≈ 0.70–0.90. With spot 6.75, a 1-day typical range implies 6.05–7.55. Given the reversal context, skew is modestly upward: base case test of 6.95–7.10; stretch to 7.35–7.45 if momentum continues.

Risk framing and scenarios (next trading day)

• Bull case (~55–60%): Early dip to 6.62–6.68 (VWAP/5–10EMA zone) is bought; push through 6.95–7.03 triggers stops and momentum to 7.30–7.45. Close near highs if volume expands.
• Base/sideways (~25–30%): Range 6.55–6.95 with choppy mean-reversion, settling 6.70–6.85.
• Bear case (~15%): Failure to hold 6.55 leads to a quick flush toward 6.20–6.30; 6.14 must hold to preserve the reversal structure.

Confluences supporting a tactical long

• Mean-reversion setup: re-entry into BBs after lower-band tag.
• Strong reversal candle on above-average volume.
• Fibo magnet at 7.38 aligns with overhead micro-gap/low-volume zone; feasible near-term target.
• Oscillators curling up from oversold; MACD cross potential.
• Wyckoff SoS/Backup blueprint favors a buy-the-dip approach into 6.6x.

Caveats

• Medium-term trend still below 20D/50D and below Ichimoku cloud; strong overhead supply 7.8–8.2. This is a tactical, not structural, long.
• Weekend gap risk: Next cash session could gap on macro headlines. Position sizing and a protective stop are essential.

Trade plan (tactical, next session)

• Bias: Buy the dip into support; aim for a push into 7.35–7.50 where first substantial supply sits.
• Entry: Limit buy near 6.65 (between 6.62–6.68) to align with the expected early-session backup retest.
• Take-profit (next 24h objective): 7.45 (captures the 7.38 Fibo and just below 7.50 supply; increases fill probability).
• Risk management (not part of the requested outputs but recommended): Initial stop 6.49 (below 6.55 shelf) or conservative stop 6.19 (below 11/20 low). R:R from 6.65→7.45 with 6.49 stop ≈ 5:1; with 6.19 stop ≈ 1.7:1.

Next 24-hour price prediction

• Expected path: Mild dip to 6.62–6.68, then advance to test 6.95–7.10. If 7.10 breaks on volume, extension toward 7.35–7.45 is likely before supply stalls the move. Probability-weighted close: 6.95–7.20.

Bottom line

• The setup favors a tactical long: momentum reversal + mean reversion + supportive volume. Optimal execution is to buy a pullback toward 6.65 with a target near 7.45 within the next session.