ORGO’s Catalyst Gap: Buy the Day-2 Dip Near Pivot for a Run at R1

Overview and context

• Ticker: ORGO (Organogenesis Holdings Inc.)
• Currency: $
• Current price (last print): 5.63
• Notable event: Massive upside gap on 2025-11-07 with extraordinary volume (≈32.99M vs typical ~0.3–1.9M). Day range 4.99–6.20, close 5.63. After-hours traded 5.67–5.93, last 5.84, signaling sustained demand post-close. The size and volume profile strongly suggest an earnings/catalyst gap with trend-change implications.

Trend, structure, and price action

• Multi-month context (Jul–early Nov): A noisy range-to-downtrend environment with repeated failures above ~5.10–5.15 and a recent selloff to ~3.88 (Nov 6). The Nov 7 gap vaulted price from the prior close (3.89) into the mid-5s, clearing multiple months of overhead in one session—classic change of character.
• Day 1 gap bar anatomy (Nov 7):
  • Open 5.11, High 6.20, Low 4.99, Close 5.63. Body ≈ +0.52 with meaningful upper wick (~0.57) and modest lower wick (~0.12). Read: powerful momentum with profit-taking/supply emerging >6.0–6.2.
  • The close above 5.50 (above the session VWAP area, see below) is constructive; buyers absorbed significant supply and still closed strongly.
• Structural zones created by the gap:
  • Demand zones (support): 5.25–5.45 (61.8–78.6% retrace cluster, prior intraday acceptance), 5.58–5.61 (50% retrace/pivot confluence), 5.72–5.74 (38.2% retrace).
  • Supply zones (resistance): 5.90–6.00 (AH rejection band), 6.18–6.23 (prior day high/Classic R1 cluster). A clean break/hold above ~6.23 opens room to 6.80s (R2) and potentially ~7.40s (R3) on extensions.

Volume and money flow

• Volume spike (≈33M) is >10–50x recent daily norms—consistent with a high-conviction re-rating. Such volume often marks the start of a new intermediate trend rather than an exhaustion top, especially when accompanied by a closing hold well above the open.
• OBV/Money Flow (qualitative): Large net-positive impulse. Accumulation footprints likely as price held over the mid-area of the day’s range into the close and was bid in the AH session.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (est): Likely >75 on the daily after a ~45% gap day—short-term overbought. However, in earnings-driven momentum moves, RSI can remain >70 for several sessions (trend RSI regime). Expect shallow pullbacks to rising supports rather than immediate full mean reversion.
• MACD: Strong bullish cross and expanding histogram likely; momentum thrust signal consistent with continuation probability into Day 2/3 after a gap.
• Stochastics: Overbought; not a sell signal in momentum context—watch for divergence on lower time frames instead of absolute level.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Price is now decisively above any short- and medium-term MAs (8/21/50), implying positive slope resets as they catch up. While the 20/50-day averages likely trail in the mid-4s to high-4s, the market has repriced above them—bullish regime change.
• Expect dynamic support to develop near fast EMAs on intraday (5–15 min) and near 5.55–5.65 on daily pivot basis.

Volatility and range analytics

• Average True Range (14D) pre-gap was small (~0.18–0.25). The new realized range (1.21) re-anchors ATR higher. Day 2 often sees a 35–60% retrace of Day 1 range intraday before continuation.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is outside/pressing the upper band; standard mean-reversion would argue for cooling. In catalyst momentum, upper-band rides can persist; anticipate band expansion and a rising upper band catching price on rallies.
• Keltner Channels: Expansion break favors trend-follow; pullbacks toward mid-channel (near the pivot) are buyable in uptrends.

Fibonacci and confluences from Day 1 range (L=4.99, H=6.20, R=1.21)

• 23.6%: 5.915 (overhead/near AH supply)
• 38.2%: 5.738 (support candidate)
• 50%: 5.595 (support/pivot)
• 61.8%: 5.452 (deeper support; near demand shelf)
• 78.6%: 5.249 (last-stand for bullish day-2 structure)

Classical pivots (from 11/07 H=6.20, L=4.99, C=5.63)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 5.6067
• R1 ≈ 6.2234; R2 ≈ 6.8167; R3 ≈ 7.4334
• S1 ≈ 5.0134; S2 ≈ 4.3967; S3 ≈ 3.8034 Interpretation: Current price ≈ pivot; targeting R1 aligns with prior high/supply; S1 is far below, underscoring how extended the move is versus historical context.

Anchored VWAP and intraday read (qualitative)

• Day 1 anchored VWAP likely centered around 5.50–5.60 given the close and heavy mid-day liquidity. Maintaining above AVWAP-from-gap-day is a strong tell of continuation. Expect dips toward 5.55–5.60 to attract buyers.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan and Kijun well below (mid-4s), with bullish TK cross probable. Chikou span clearing past price—bullish trend initiation signature. Pullbacks toward Tenkan on intraday will likely be bought given catalyst.

Wyckoff/Elliott perspective

• Wyckoff: The gap with large volume and a strong close is a Sign of Strength (SOS) after an Accumulation/Stopping action near 3.9–4.1. Day-2 playbook typically includes a Last Point of Support (LPS) pullback near the 50% retrace/pivot (~5.60) before markup attempts to/through prior high.
• Elliott: Treat the gap as Wave 1 of a new impulse or the center (3 of 3) of a higher-degree move. Either way, shallow Wave-2 or iv pullbacks between 38.2–61.8% of the gap leg are buyable; invalidation below ~5.25 on a closing basis for the short-term impulse.

Support/resistance map and supply/demand

• Supports: 5.60 (pivot/50% fib/AVWAP), 5.45 (61.8%), 5.25 (78.6%). Below 5.25 risks a deeper gap-structure test toward 5.05–5.10 (S1 vicinity).
• Resistances: 5.90–6.00 (AH band), 6.18–6.23 (R1/Day high), 6.80 (R2) on a breakout.

Pattern diagnostics

• Gap-and-Go/High-Tight-Flag risk: After a wide gap, Day 2 commonly tries to shake weak hands early (opening dip into pivot) then rotates higher, often retesting or marginally exceeding Day 1 high if the catalyst is fundamentally strong.
• Candle expectations for Day 2: Either a “trend day up” after a brief retrace to 5.55–5.65 or a “range day” bounded by ~5.45–6.05 if supply persists.

24-hour path forecast (next session behavior)

• Since we are between sessions/weekend, the next active window is likely premarket Monday. Expect:
  • Premarket: 5.60–5.90 range as participants reset; liquidity pockets near 5.70 and 5.85.
  • Regular hours open: Probable early pullback toward 5.58–5.65 (buy zone) as funds benchmark to AVWAP/pivot.
  • Midday: Attempted push toward 5.95–6.05; if absorbed, consolidation 5.70–5.95; if volume expands >2–3M in the first 30–60 minutes with VWAP support, a run at 6.18–6.23 (R1) is likely.
  • Close: Base case closes above pivot (≥5.65) with 30–60% chance of tagging 6.05–6.20 intraday; 15–25% chance of clean breakout and hold >6.23 (then eye 6.60–6.80 extensions). Bear case closes below 5.45 only if the catalyst is faded materially (low probability given AH strength).

Risk management and trade plan

• Thesis: Catalyst-led regime shift with strong breadth of confirmations (volume thrust, structure break, pivot confluence at ~5.60). Expect buy-the-dip to dominate above 5.45–5.60.
• Entry (long): Staggered/limit near 5.60 (pivot/50% fib) to align with mean-reversion into support.
• Invalidation (for tactical trade): Daily close below ~5.25 or sustained VWAP loss with heavy distribution. Intraday stop for tight risk could sit 5.24–5.29 (below 78.6% fib/demand shelf), recognizing elevated volatility.
• Targeting: First target just below R1/supply at 6.18–6.23 to ensure fills into known liquidity; stretch targets 6.60–6.80 if breakout holds with volume.
• R:R snapshot (example): Entry 5.60, stop 5.25 (−0.35), TP1 6.18 (+0.58) → ~1.65:1; better if scaling partials and trailing rest above VWAP.

Tool-by-tool impact summary

• Moving averages: Strongly bullish as price is above all key MAs—supports buy-the-dip.
• RSI/MACD: Overbought but bullish momentum regime—suggests shallow dips, not deep retrace, favored.
• Bollinger/Keltner: Expansion phase—trend-follow entries near mid channels preferred; caution against chasing breakouts without pullback.
• Fibonacci: 50% (5.595) and 38.2% (5.738) provide immediate tactical supports; 61.8% (5.452) is deeper backup.
• Pivots: P ≈ 5.607 aligns perfectly with buy zone; R1 ≈ 6.223 is logical first objective.
• VWAP/Volume: Holding above day-1 AVWAP indicates strong hands absorbing; watch VWAP on open—above VWAP favors continuation.
• Wyckoff/Elliott: Early LPS expectation near 5.55–5.65 fits the plan; impulse continuation toward prior high probable.

Conclusion

• Bias: Bullish continuation with an early Day-2 dip likely bought. Optimal approach is a limit long near the daily pivot (≈5.60) with a first target just below prior high/R1 (≈6.18–6.23). If price gaps above 5.90 at open and holds VWAP, consider breakout adds on a reclaim of 6.05–6.10 with stops tight under VWAP.