O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

ORLY coils above a Fibonacci buy zone: poised to reclaim 102 and sprint toward 103+

Step-by-step multi-technique analysis of ORLY (daily + intraday)

Higher timeframe (last 4 months): Sideways-to-up transition. April–June oscillated 88–95. Late July breakout pushed into a new 98–104 regime, establishing a higher value area. Structure remains constructive above the 98–100 shelf.
Recent swing: High at 104.67 (08-06), followed by a controlled pullback/consolidation to 101–102, not a violent reversal. This looks like a pause within an uptrend rather than trend failure.
Intraday (08-18 hourly): Repeated tests and holds of 101.20–101.30; resistance zone 101.80–102.00. Tightening hourly range into the close suggests energy build-up for a near-term break.

Immediate support: 101.00–101.20 (multiple hourly reactions 08-18); 100.80–100.90 (08-15 low 100.84); psychological 100.00; below that 98.30–99.40 prior consolidation ledge (07-29 to 07-31, 08-01).
Immediate resistance: 102.00 (intraday supply); 102.64 (08-13 close); 103.33–103.60 (08-08 to 08-11 closes); 104.44 (08-06 high) / 104.67 (swing high). Laddered resistance overhead offers staged targets.

20-day SMA (approx): ~100.35–100.90 range depending on inclusion. Current price 101.39 sits modestly above the 20SMA, implying neutral-to-positive mean-reversion bias.
50-day SMA (approx): mid-90s given June–July prices in the high 80s/low 90s; price is well above 50SMA → bullish intermediate trend context.
Short-term MAs: 5-day ≈ 101.8 vs 10-day ≈ 102.6 → 5 below 10 shows short-term momentum cooled, consistent with consolidation rather than breakdown since price holds above 20SMA.
Takeaway: Price resting slightly above the 20SMA and far above the 50SMA supports a buy-the-dip framework within an ongoing uptrend, provided 100–101 support holds.

RSI(14) qualitative read: After the late-July/early-August thrust, RSI likely retreated toward neutral (40–55). No sign of persistent overbought; room to re-expand upward.
Stochastic: Likely recovering from mid-range after tagging the 101–100.8 area; a cross up from 30–40 favors a short-term push back to 102.5–103.5 if confirmed.
MACD: Positive histogram had been narrowing since 08-06; momentum cooled, but no decisive negative breakdown. A flattening MACD near zero often precedes the next directional push; uptrend context biases that push higher if support persists.

ATR(14) estimate: ~1.5–2.0. Recent daily ranges tightening (vol contraction) after the August surge.
Bollinger Bands (20,2) approximation: Mid ~100.35; band width roughly [~95.9, ~104.7]. Current 101.39 sits in the upper-mid part of the envelope with notable room to the upper band (103.8–104.7 area). Contraction plus support holds → odds of upside band test increase.

Breakout sessions (07-24 to 08-06) carried stronger volume; consolidation days saw normalized 4–6M shares. No outsized distribution spikes during the pullback; buyers defended dips (notably around 101 and 100.8). This supports absorption rather than topping.

Swing low 97.33 (07-28) to swing high 104.67 (08-06): range ≈ 7.34.
Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 101.87, 50% ≈ 101.00, 61.8% ≈ 100.13.
Price has oscillated around 101.9/101.0 and briefly flirted with 100.8–100.9 — a classic Fibonacci buy zone for a trend continuation. Holding 100.1–101.0 keeps the bull case intact and favors a push toward 103–104.5.

With price above the July cloud and a pullback towards the conversion/base lines, the setup resembles a bullish consolidation above cloud support. A reclaim over 102.0–102.6 likely flips Tenkan/Kijun momentum back up, opening 103.5–104.5.

Bull flag / shallow descending channel since 08-06: lower highs (104.4 → 103.6 → 102.6) against flat-to-rising lows near 100.8–101.2, compressing into a pennant-like structure. Break above 102.0–102.6 triggers measured move toward prior highs 103.5–104.7.
Range box (101–102) visible intraday 08-18; a break and hold above 102 could prompt a quick range expansion.

Multiple touches and defense at 101.21–101.30; buyers active on dips.
VWAP-proxy hovered ~101.5; late day closed slightly below, setting up a favorable buy-below-VWAP mean reversion if early strength reclaims 101.6–101.8.
Liquidity pockets: 101.0 round, then 100.8 stop-sweep zone; above, 101.8–102.0 offers thin resistance before 102.6.

Base case (≈60–65%): Hold 100.8–101.2, reclaim 101.8–102.0, extend to 102.6 then 103.2–103.6. Catalysts: band squeeze resolution, dip buyers at Fibonacci cluster, VWAP reclaim momentum.
Bear case (≈35–40%): Early fade loses 101.0; tests 100.5–100.1 (61.8% Fib). A decisive break of 100.0 would target 99.0–98.3, but probability lower given lack of heavy distribution.
Expected path: Opening dip into 101.0–101.2 attracts bids; push toward 102.0 mid-session; if 102.0–102.2 converts to support, extension to 103.0–103.4 is viable within 24h. Stretch goal test: 103.8–104.1 if momentum accelerates.

Uptrend context (above 50DMA) + pullback to 50–61.8% retracement + support cluster at 101/100.8 + Bollinger contraction + hourly base-building + absence of distribution → favors a tactical long.
Clear invalidation: sustained trade below 100.0 would negate the continuation thesis.

Bias: Buy the dip near 101.1 with a target toward the 103 handle where multiple resistances stack (102.6/103.3). This aligns with Fibonacci extensions and prior supply.
Timing: Prefer an entry on early minor weakness or on a clean reclaim of 101.8–102.0 with momentum; the former offers superior R:R.

Likely range: 100.9–103.2 (with an upside skew). Intraday path: dip to ~101.1 → grind to 102.0 → breakout attempts toward 102.6–103.2 if volume cooperates.

Decision: Buy (Long) due to multi-signal confluence pointing to a continuation move from a defended Fibonacci cluster.