PINS: Failing Bounce Into Resistance — Short the 26s, Aim for the 25 Handle Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical playbook for PINS (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and context

• Regime shift: A major earnings gap-down on 2025-11-05 reset the trading regime from a mid-30s consolidation to a new value area in the mid-20s. The down-gap (from 32.91 prior close to 25.75 close, intraday low 25.30) created an open gap window that now acts as powerful overhead supply. Since then, rebounds have failed below even a 38.2% Fib retrace of the gap leg (max bounce to 27.36 on 11/11), underscoring supply dominance.
• Current location: 25.52 (today’s daily H/L/C ~ 26.66 / 25.40 / 25.52). That places price marginally above the pivotal 25.30 earnings-day low. The inability to reclaim the 26s intraday confirms weak demand into the close.
• Trend state: The daily trend is down across short-, intermediate-, and long-term measures. Lower highs since late October (35.24 → 33s → 32.9 pre-gap) and lower lows (31.85 → 30.40 → 25.30) define a persistent downtrend.

2. Key levels (confluence of techniques)

• Supports: 25.50–25.40 (intraday shelf), 25.30 (gap-day low and structural pivot), 25.06 (daily pivot S1 calc), 24.60 (S2/predictive extension zone), 24.00 (round-number psychological).
• Resistances: 25.90–26.10 (intraday supply from fades), 26.20–26.35 (daily pivot R1 cluster; failed retests), 26.60–26.62 (today’s late-session spike failure), 27.00–27.36 (post-gap rebound high), 28.90 (Fib 38.2% of 35.24→25.30 leg).
• Daily floor pivots (using 11/17 H/L/C): P ≈ 25.86; R1 ≈ 26.32; S1 ≈ 25.06; R2 ≈ 27.13; S2 ≈ 24.60. These align closely with the observed intraday turns and provide tactical targets.

3. Candlestick/price action diagnostics

• Post-earnings structure: Multiple small-bodied candles with lower wicks failing to extend indicate persistent supply capping bounces; rallies are sold into near 26–26.6.
• Intraday (11/17): Sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the cash open, a failed late-session push to ~26.62 that was rejected back to 25.55. This is classic bear-in-control tape with responsive sellers at every pop.
• Pattern bias: A developing bear flag within 25.3–26.6 range. Bear flags following a large impulse leg typically resolve lower; the measured move favors a probe beneath 25.30.

4. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20/50/200 EMAs: Price is materially below each. The 20D EMA likely in the high-20s/low-30s, the 50D ~ low- to mid-30s, 200D mid- to high-30s. All downward-sloping, evidencing momentum trend down and negative breadth.
• Short-term MAs (5–10D) are curling down and acting as dynamic resistance on rallies into the mid-26s.
• Takeaway: No MA support beneath; all major MAs overhead = sell-the-rip setup.

5. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI (daily): Persistently sub-50 and frequently sub-30 post-gap suggests bearish regime. Minor oversold conditions have not produced sustainable reversals—typical of strong downtrends.
• Stochastic: Likely hovering in lower quartile; shallow upticks that roll over near 50 mark—confirms weak thrust on rallies.
• MACD: Deeply negative line with a flat-to-slightly contracting histogram. Any bull crossover attempts have failed to recapture price momentum; the dominant impulse remains down.
• ADX/DMI: Rising ADX with -DI above +DI indicates trend strength favors bears.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily): Expanded post-earnings; present ATR roughly ~1.1–1.3. Expect intraday swings near $1, which frames tactical targets and stops.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price hugging/violating the lower band is consistent with a trend move. In strong downtrends, lower-band rides can persist; band breaches alone are not buy signals without other reversal evidence.
• Keltner Channels: Price remains below midline; envelopes open downward, consistent with momentum trend.

7. Volume/flow analytics

• Volume surge on gap day, then declining on subsequent sessions—no evidence of aggressive accumulation. OBV/ADL would be trending down, indicating distribution.
• Intraday 11/17: Each push to the 26.5–26.6 area was countered with increased sell volume. That ‘supply stepping in’ is a tell for short-on-strength.
• Anchored VWAP from the earnings gap: Likely resides in upper 26s to low 27s; price below anchored VWAP implies longs trapped above and sellers in control. Rallies towards 26.8–27.1 should meet supply.

8. Fibonacci mapping (daily swing 35.24 → 25.30)

• 38.2%: 28.90; 50%: 30.27; 61.8%: 31.63. Post-gap rebounds have not reached even 38.2%, a sign of bearish dominance.
• Extension: A break below 25.30 projects 1.272–1.618 extensions into ~24.70–23.80. For the next 24 hours, 24.60 (pivot S2 / 1.27 ext vicinity) is the logical downside magnet if 25.30 fails.

9. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price far below the cloud; both Tenkan and Kijun overhead and falling. Lagging span below price and cloud. A fully bearish Ichimoku stack—no long signal yet.

10. Market profile/volume profile

• A new low-volume node exists around 26.2–26.4 (thin acceptance), suggesting swift rejections when price tags this zone—good area for fade shorts.
• High-volume node building around 25.5 indicates short-term acceptance; failures to lift from this node often lead to a test of the lower node (25.1–25.0).

11. Pivot/mean-reversion versus momentum framework

• Momentum case: Continuation lower on a break of 25.30, targeting 25.06 first, then 24.60 if sellers press.
• Mean-reversion case: A bounce to R1 (≈26.32) on the open or early session gets sold; shorting strength offers better asymmetry than chasing weakness given proximity to 25.30 support.
• Given the regime (downtrend, weak bounces, overhead supply), leaning into sell-the-rip is favored over dip-buys.

12. Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈55%): Pop into 26.20–26.40 supply fails; price rotates lower to 25.30 and marginally breaks, tagging 25.05 ±0.05. Close sub-25.40.
• Upside alt (≈30%): Stronger squeeze reaches 26.6–27.0, but likely stalls beneath 27.36; still favors fading into anchored VWAP/supply.
• Downside tail (≈15%): Straight break of 25.30 early, momentum accelerates to 24.60 S2 without a meaningful bounce.

13. Risk management and execution plan

• Primary tactic: Short into strength rather than at lows. Ideal sell zone is the confluence band 26.20–26.35 (daily R1, intraday supply shelf, thin volume). Use a limit order to avoid slippage.
• Invalidation: A sustained reclaim and hold above 26.75–26.80 (and especially >27.00) would negate the immediate short thesis and open door to a deeper squeeze toward 27.36.
• Take-profit logic: First target near S1 (25.06) captures the expected daily range under ATR constraints. If momentum is strong and 25.30 snaps decisively, partials at 25.05 with a runner toward 24.60 is attractive; however, for the defined plan we fix TP at the conservative magnet 25.05.
• Alternate trigger (if no bounce): Breakdown short on a decisive reclaim-fail and flush under 25.28 with momentum (stop 26.00, target 24.60). This preserves opportunity if the market doesn’t grant a pop.

14. Synthesis and verdict

• Every major lens—trend, MAs, momentum, Ichimoku, volume/flow, Fib posture—skews bearish. The only counterpoint is proximity to a prior swing low (25.30), which argues for tactical patience to sell a bounce rather than chase. The risk/reward is most favorable fading 26.2–26.35 toward 25.05 within 24 hours.

15. 24-hour price path forecast

• Expected path: Early attempt higher into 26.2–26.4; sellers defend; roll over through VWAP; afternoon retest of 25.30; marginal break to 25.05. Volatility band ~1.0–1.2 aligns with this move.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Rationale: Dominant downtrend, repeated failed rallies, heavy overhead supply, and confluence resistance near 26.2–26.35; tactical target near S1 at 25.05 offers favorable R:R.

Order plan (optimal levels)

• Open (Sell limit): 26.25
• Close (Take profit): 25.05
• Suggested (not mandated by prompt) protective stop: 26.80 (above confluence and intraday failure line). Risk ≈ 0.55 vs reward ≈ 1.20 for ~2.2R potential.

Contingency

• If no fill on the bounce and 25.30 breaks with momentum, an alternate short trigger at 25.28 with TP 24.60 and stop 26.00 is suitable, but the primary published plan remains to sell strength near 26.25 and exit 25.05.