POET After the High-Volume Flush: Expect a Relief Bounce Into 7.20 Resistance, Then Drift Back Toward 6.65

Market structure & context (Daily timeframe)

• Current price: 6.91 (last/spot), most recent intraday prints ~6.975.
• Big picture since Oct spike: POET experienced a blow-off top in early Oct (high ~9.41) followed by a prolonged decline into mid-Nov (low ~4.18–4.40 zone). Since then, it built a base and re-accelerated in Dec–mid Jan.
• Regime shift in Dec: 12/03–12/11 shows a strong impulsive advance (4.68 → 7.22) on expanding volume (notably 12/03 ~22.8M). This is classic accumulation-to-markup behavior.
• Recent distribution / shock: 01/22 is a large bearish day (open 7.70, low 6.93, close 6.94) with very high volume (~31.0M)—a potential distribution / liquidation event. 01/23 closes ~6.91 (daily close in dataset 6.91) with lower volume (~14.0M) and a tighter range than 01/22, suggesting selling pressure cooled but hasn’t reversed into strong demand.

Trend & moving-average logic (price action proxy)

Even without explicit MA calculation, the sequence implies:

• From early Dec through 01/20, price held mostly above the prior base (~4.6–5.0) and printed higher highs into 8.31 (01/15) and 9.14 intraday (01/20). That’s an intermediate uptrend.
• The sharp break to 6.94 (01/22) violates the short-term uptrend and likely pulls price back toward/under short MAs (5–10 day). Short-term trend is now down / corrective, while the medium-term trend is transitioning from uptrend to consolidation.

Support/Resistance mapping (multi-touch zones)

Key supports

1. 6.90–6.93:
   • 01/22 low 6.93; 01/22 close 6.94.
   • 01/23 intraday low 6.71 but repeated trading/settling around ~6.90–7.02 after the dip.
   • This is immediate micro support; if it fails, downside can accelerate.
2. 6.70–6.75:
   • 01/23 low 6.71; also matches a “gap/air pocket” type area after the 01/22 flush.
   • If 6.90 breaks, price often re-tests the flush low area.
3. 6.50–6.55:
   • Multiple late-Dec closes around 6.52–6.54 (12/29–12/30).
   • A more structural support if the flush expands.

Key resistances

1. 7.15–7.25:
   • Intraday supply region on 01/23 morning (7.18–7.29); several hourly highs stall here.
2. 7.35–7.45:
   • Prior consolidation highs (01/05–01/09) and a common pivot.
3. 7.75–8.10:
   • 01/13 high 7.59 then 01/14 breakout to 8.26/close 8.09; on the way down this becomes heavy resistance.

Volume & event-day interpretation (Wyckoff-style read)

• 01/22 (31M) = potential Selling Climax (SC) or Distribution Break:
  • Because the move is down and volume is extreme, two common interpretations:
    1. Capitulation / selling climax (bullish later) if followed by strong “automatic rally” and higher lows.
    2. Distribution breakdown (bearish continuation) if rallies are weak and volume fades while price cannot reclaim broken supports.
• 01/23 volume lower (14M) with stabilization near 6.9–7.05: this leans slightly toward the capitulation stabilization narrative, but confirmation requires reclaiming >7.25–7.35 with improving demand.

Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style reasoning)

• Recent daily ranges are wide:
  • 01/20 range ~1.27 (7.87→9.14)
  • 01/22 range ~0.78 (6.93→7.71)
  • 01/23 range ~0.48 (6.71→7.19)
• Volatility is elevated vs the quieter late-Dec sessions, meaning a 24h forecast should assume bigger-than-normal swings and prioritize levels rather than single-point forecasts.

Candlestick / price-action signals

• 01/22: strong bearish candle (large red body), closes near lows → bearish momentum impulse.
• 01/23: opened ~7.18, sold to 6.71, then recovered to ~6.91–6.98 zone. That forms a lower-wick / intraday rejection of sub-6.75 prices, but the close is still below key pivots (7.15–7.25).
• Net: early signs of a base attempt, but trend damage remains.

Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference)

• The Jan run (7.1→8.3/9.1 intraday) likely pushed RSI elevated; the two-day drop to ~6.9 likely caused a momentum reset.
• After a high-volume dump, momentum often mean-reverts with a dead-cat bounce into resistance (7.15–7.45), then decides.
• Without confirmation reclaiming >7.35, momentum is more consistent with bear-market rally within a pullback.

Fibonacci / retracement logic (approximate)

Using swing low ~4.18 (11/14–11/17 area) to swing high ~9.14 (01/20):

• Range ≈ 4.96.
• 38.2% retrace: 9.14 - 1.89 ≈ 7.25
• 50% retrace: 9.14 - 2.48 ≈ 6.66
• 61.8% retrace: 9.14 - 3.06 ≈ 6.08 Current ~6.91 sits:
• Below the 38.2% (~7.25): bearish (has not reclaimed).
• Above the 50% (~6.66): still within a “normal” retrace zone if the uptrend is to survive. This positioning often leads to chop between ~6.66 and ~7.25 over the next session unless a catalyst breaks it.

Intraday (hourly) microstructure read

• 01/23 hours show repeated failure to hold above ~7.20–7.27 and repeated tests of ~7.00.
• Late trading prints include 7.02 then fade to ~6.905 then ~6.98, indicating liquidity clustering around 6.95–7.05.
• This is consistent with range formation after a dump.

24-hour forward scenario (probabilistic)

Given the post-dump stabilization but damaged trend:

• Base case (higher probability): Range-bound to mildly bearish.
  • Expect early attempt to bounce toward 7.15–7.25, then selling pressure reappears.
  • Likely settle back toward 6.90; risk of probing 6.70–6.75 if broader market weak.
• Bull case: Reclaim and hold >7.25 (38.2% retrace), opening room to 7.35–7.45.
• Bear case: Clean break below 6.90, then 6.70 (flush low) and possibly 6.55.

Directional call (next 24h): Slight downward bias / mean-reversion lower after a weak bounce, with resistance overhead at 7.15–7.25.

Trade decision synthesis

• Trend damage + heavy-volume breakdown day (01/22) + inability (so far) to reclaim 7.25 suggests rallies are more likely to be sold in the next 24 hours.
• However, because 6.70–6.75 showed rejection, chasing shorts at 6.91 is suboptimal; better to short into resistance.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Optimal open (entry): place sell/short near 7.20 (into the 7.15–7.25 resistance band / fib 38.2% area). If price never bounces there, risk/reward deteriorates.
• Take-profit (close): 6.65 (near the ~50% retrace area and just above the 6.66 level; also close to the likely liquidity pocket if 6.90 breaks).

Note: This is a short-horizon technical view based solely on the provided OHLCV. Elevated volatility means level discipline matters; a sustained reclaim above ~7.35 would weaken the short thesis.