PSTG: Day-2 Bounce Setup Off Capitulation—Targeting a Quick Push Toward 75

Comprehensive multi-technique assessment for PSTG over the next 24 hours

1. Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily context: After closing at 94.72 on 12/02, PSTG gapped down and sold off hard on 12/03 to 68.85 (−27% DoD), a capitulative move typically tied to an event (earnings/guidance). Today (12/04) printed a trend-up recovery day: open 68.44, low 68.11, high/close 72.20 (+4.9%), closing near the highs. That combination (capitulation day followed by a strong close-up day) often leads to a 1–3 day mean-reversion bounce.
• Intraday (hourly): 12/04 shows a steady sequence of higher highs/higher lows: 68.45 → 70.13 → 70.54 → 71.06 → 72.20, then minor pullback to ~72 into the close. Buying pressure persisted late, which favors early-session follow-through next day.
• Weekly lens: The pullback retraces a substantial portion of the Aug–Dec advance, landing near a key Fibonacci cluster (see below), suggesting a potential equilibrium zone rather than a trend breakdown continuation in the next 24 hours.

2. Gap and event dynamics

• A massive gap exists from 12/02 close 94.72 to 12/03 open 78.80. Large gaps of this magnitude rarely fill quickly; instead, typical behavior is a Day 2/3 reflex bounce toward shallow Fibonacci levels (23.6%/38.2%) before price digests or retests.
• Day 1 post-gap (today) closed strong and above session VWAP (bullish for a continuation pop). Expectation: partial gap retrace attempts toward ~75 (23.6% retrace of 12/02 high → 12/03 low range).

3. Volume and VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)

• 12/03 volume 21.47M (capitulation). 12/04 volume ~10.08M, still elevated vs prior averages, with a wide up-spread candle closing near highs — classic “stopping volume” then “response buying” sequence. This pattern increases odds of a continuation bounce within 1 trading day.
• Intraday today, volume built into the afternoon push toward 72.20, signaling buyers into the close rather than fade.

4. VWAPs and Anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (12/04) estimated ~70.7–71.0. Price closing above VWAP is constructive; pullbacks toward VWAP often get bought on Day 2 after such patterns.
• Anchored VWAP from the 12/03 open (78.80) — a common anchor for the start of the selloff — likely sits in the low 72s after heavy selling then today’s buying. Today’s close ~72.2 suggests price is attempting to reclaim that anchored supply overhang. Reclaim-and-hold >72.0–72.5 strengthens the bounce case.
• Anchored VWAP from 12/03 low (68.34) clusters near ~70.5–71; strong intraday support if tested.

5. Moving averages (approximations)

• 20D SMA ≈ 84.4 (well above). Price is materially below the 20D, consistent with a short-term oversold condition and wide reversion gap.
• 50D SMA likely upper-80s; 200D SMA likely low-to-mid 70s given prior multi-month uptrend. Current price (72.2) is at/just under the longer-term average cluster, often an “equilibrium” battleground. Holding/reclaiming 200D favors a bounce.

6. Oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: After the collapse, RSI likely dipped into the high-20s and is curling up toward 30–35. This “emerging from oversold” setup tends to support 1–2 more green sessions or at least an attempt.
• Stochastic fast/slow: Likely crossed up from oversold, reinforcing a short-term mean-reversion impulse.
• MACD: Bearish on the daily (recent bearish cross with strong downside momentum). For the next 24 hours, MACD is a lagging headwind but doesn’t typically prevent a Day 2 bounce after capitulation.

7. Volatility and ATR

• Today’s range 68.11–72.20 = 4.09. Post-gap ATR will be elevated (~4–5). Expect intraday swings but with an upward skew while the bounce sequence persists.

8. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Middle band near the 20D (~84.4). Lower band likely ~72–73 given recent volatility. Today’s close ~72.2 sits at/just under the lower band — a common spot for reversion pushes back toward/above the band. This supports a near-term push into 73–75 before encountering heavier supply.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• 12/02 high (96.50 intraday) to 12/03 low (68.34):
  • 23.6%: ~74.98
  • 38.2%: ~79.10
  • 50%: ~82.42 Current ~72.2 is below the 23.6% retrace; first logical magnet is ~75.
• Aug swing low (57.43, 08/06 close) to Dec swing high (96.50):
  • 61.8% retrace ≈ 72.07 — exactly where price closed today. That “golden ratio” confluence acts as a pivotal decision level. A daily hold above ~72 favors bounce to 75; a loss of 72 increases risk of 70 → 68 retest.

10. Support/Resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 72.50 (today’s late-session cap), 73.5 (intraday supply shelf), 74.9–75.0 (Fib 23.6 and round), then 78.8 (gap bottom) and 79.1 (Fib 38.2). Heavy supply clusters from 78–90 remain significant overhead.
• Supports: 71.2 (intraday demand pivot), 70.7–71.0 (session VWAP zone), 69.4–69.6 (hourly pivot), 68.11 (today’s low). Losing 68.1 would negate the bounce thesis and re-open downside into mid-60s.

11. Market profile / volume nodes

• High-volume nodes formed today near 69.5, 70.5–70.8, and 71.0–71.3. These zones should act as buy-the-dip areas on initial pullbacks if the bounce persists.

12. Candlestick and pattern signals

• 12/03: wide-range down candle with extreme volume (capitulation). 12/04: strong green candle closing near high (bullish “response day”). Together, this is a classic 2-candle swing low attempt. Expectation: a Day 2 continuation attempt early, often testing prior day’s high and pushing into the first retracement band (~75) before meeting supply.

13. Ichimoku and SAR (contextual)

• Price is below the daily cloud and Parabolic SAR likely above price — medium-term trend remains down. However, these lagging bearish signals don’t typically preclude a short, tradable mean-reversion bounce over 24 hours.

14. Statistical mean-reversion viewpoint

• Z-score vs 20D mean likely ~−2 to −2.5 after today’s bounce (was probably worse yesterday). Historically, after a −2σ to −3σ shock with capitulation volume, a 1–3 day reversion bounce has greater-than-average odds. This favors a tactical long with defined risk.

15. Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Early dip gets bought in the 71.2–71.8 zone, followed by a push to 73.5–75.0. Expect profit-taking near 74.9–75 (Fib 23.6 and round number). Closing tomorrow in 73.8–75.0 range.
• Range case (30%): Choppy consolidation 70.8–73.5 with no decisive break; close 72–73.2.
• Bear case (10%): Early weakness loses 70.7 VWAP cluster, triggers stops to 69.4 and potentially a quick probe of 68.1. This likely requires negative fresh news or risk-off tape.

16. Risk management cues (for planning the trade)

• Optimal entry tactic: Buy-the-dip toward 71.5–71.8 (near intraday demand and just above session VWAP). Avoid chasing >72.6 unless momentum broadens.
• Invalidations: A firm break and hold below 70.7 weakens; below 69.4 warns of a full 68.1 retest.
• Targets: First target 74.9–75.0; stretch target 76.5–77.0 if momentum/market tailwinds are strong. Overhead gap at 78.8 is unlikely to fill in 24 hours without outsized catalysts.

Bottom line and 24-hour forecast

• Bias: Tactical Buy for a Day 2 bounce continuation toward ~75, provided 71–71.5 pullbacks hold and price remains above ~70.7. Expect initial dip then grind higher; volatility elevated but skewed upward into first resistance band.