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PVH
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Prediction
Price-down
BEARISH
Target
$64.7
Estimated
Model
ai robot icon
trdz-T41k
Date
21:00
Analyzed

PVH Corp. Price Analysis Powered by AI

PVH Corp. Technical Breakdown: Why More Downside Looms After the Big Selloff

Step 1: Chart Structure & Trend Overview

First, inspecting the daily chart, PVH experienced a dramatic high in early May peaking near $87.93, then sharply declined to the $65–66 zone by the start of June. Specifically, the significant breakdown on 2025-06-05 ($70.04 open, $66.3 close) was on massive volume (11.77M, over 7x avg) — often a clear institutional sell event (distributive breakdown). Since then, price action is consolidative between $64.86–$67.03, forming a short-term support with repeated closes near $65.1–$65.8 the last four sessions, but rallies struggle to extend past $67.05 intraday.

Step 2: Support, Resistance, and Volume Profile

Support: The short-term support floor is at $64.86 ($6/10 low), with recent closes hugging $65.1–$65.8. Medium-term support sits at $63.8–$64.7, tested in March and again late May.

Resistance: Immediate resistance is $67.05 (6/11 intraday high), followed by a larger wall at $70 (6/5 gap breakdown level). Persistent failure at $67 alongside lower highs hints at increasing selling interest on each attempted rally.

Volume: The spike on the breakdown day (6/5) dwarfs all subsequent sessions. Follow-up sessions show shrinking volume on attempted bounces, typical of dead-cat or weak bear-market rallies rather than signs of accumulation/bottoming.

Step 3: Momentum and Moving Averages

  • RSI: The chart suggests RSI is likely sub-35 (oversold but not bottomed out — price is stuck). No bullish divergences are apparent; momentum remains negative.
  • MACD: MACD likely deeply negative since 6/5 with no new crossover, reinforcing the prevailing bearish trend.
  • Short-term EMA (10/20): Price is trading beneath both short- and long-term averages. 10DMA is approx $68.5, 20DMA near $70–71; all above last price. Each moving average will act as dynamic resistance on any attempt to rally.

Step 4: Candlestick & Chart Patterns

After the breakdown gap on June 5, multi-session candles show long upper wicks (selling into strength), and closes persistently below open, suggesting supply dominance. No classic reversal candlestick (hammer, engulfing) is present. Instead, price action is choppy and weak.

Step 5: Event & Sentiment Analysis

Such gaps on huge volume often follow a negative catalyst — e.g. disappointing earnings, guidance cuts, or macro/sector headwinds. The ensuing inability to recover the gap (let alone fill it) strongly suggests market consensus is pricing in continued operational/earnings headwinds.

Step 6: Volatility & ATR

Average True Range (ATR) exploded (>5) on breakdown but is settling. However, rallies are weak/brief while declines are sharper. This volatility spike generally precedes further downside, as bottoms in such cycles are rarely V-shaped — chop is the norm before further leg down.

Step 7: Fibonacci and Retracement Targets

  • 6/5 selloff marked ~25% retrace from May highs ($87) to the lows ($65). No tenable bounce yet; first Fibonacci retrace (38.2%, $72.5) far above current resistance, making extended bounce highly unlikely sans unexpected catalyst.
  • Bearish case suggests breakdown targets $61–62 (March/April support) and even $59.2 (April low) if $64.7 fails.

Step 8: Order Flow & Liquidity Zones

  • Highest liquidity and prior demand in the $65–66 zone is weakening under repeated retests, with sellers holding resistance at every 1% rally attempt.
  • No large-volume bullish reversal observed in the orderbook. The market’s muscle memory is selling into any strength.

Step 9: Synthesis & Predictive Outlook

PVH remains in a medium-term bearish trend after an institutional-quality breakdown, with no evidence of accumulation or sustained buyer support. The failed recovery attempts on tame volume combined with technical breakdown leave further downside probable. Temporary bounces may occur overnight or on open, but the path of least resistance remains down until $64.7 is convincingly reclaimed as support with increased volume.


Conclusion

  • Bias: Bearish continuation
  • Risk: Only a close above $67.10–68.50 would invalidate the bearish view for the next 24h.
  • Play: Short the retest of $66.2–66.3 (intraday resistance) for a technical entry with high risk/reward. Target $64.7 first, then $62 if momentum accelerates. Tight stop above $67.2 to control risk.

Summary Table

  • Trend: Down
  • Resistance: $66.3–$67.0
  • Support: $64.7, then $62.0
  • Bias: Sell/Short
  • Timeframe: Next 24 hours

Final Recommendation

Open Sell (Short) at $66.20. Target close at $64.70. Move stop to break-even on any print below $65.10 to lock risk.