QURE’s Breakaway Gap Builds a Bull Flag Above 50 — Eyeing a 56 Test Next

Overview and context

• Ticker: QURE (uniQure N.V.) | Currency: $ | Current price: 52.65
• Regime shift: A massive breakaway gap on 2025-09-24 (O: 39.36, H: 51.21, L: 37.12, C: 47.50) on extreme volume (~70.1M vs. typical ~1–3M). Follow-through 2025-09-25: H: 54.98, L: 46.60, C: 52.65 on 17.15M. This is classic “news shock” behavior (likely M&A/major catalyst), transitioning the stock to a new price regime.
• Intraday structure 9/25: Early spike to 56.78, sharp reaction to ~51–52, stabilization above 50. Psych level 50 acting as developing support; 56–57 zone as supply.

Key levels (derived from price, volume, Fibonacci, and pivots)

• Psychological: 50.00
• Intraday supports: 51.10–51.20 (hourly basing), 50.0, 49.50–49.70 (volume node/VPOC cluster), 48.15 (38.2% retrace), 46.60 (session low), 46.05 (50% retrace)
• Resistances: 53.45 (hourly supply), 55.80–56.20 (R1 pivot band/overhead supply), 56.78 (intraday high), 57.60 (Fib 61.8% extension), 59.79 (R2 pivot)

Fibonacci mapping (swing A=37.12, B=54.98, pullback C=46.60)

• Retracements off high (B): 38.2% ≈ 48.15; 50% ≈ 46.05; 61.8% ≈ 43.95. Price respected >38.2% and defended above ~50. This supports a bull-flag consolidation bias.
• Extensions from C: 38.2% ≈ 53.42 (tested); 61.8% ≈ 57.63 (next upside waypoint); 100% ≈ 64.46 (unlikely in 24h but defines tail risk to upside on squeeze/news).

Pivot points (classic) using H=54.98, L=46.60, C=52.65 (9/25)

• P ≈ 51.41 | R1 ≈ 56.22 | R2 ≈ 59.79 | R3 ≈ 64.60 | S1 ≈ 47.84 | S2 ≈ 43.03 | S3 ≈ 39.46
• Current price above P and rotating toward R1; the 56.2 region aligns with prior supply and makes a high-probability magnet/resistance.

Volume, VWAP, and market profile

• Volume pattern: Day 1 shock (70M) followed by still-elevated but lower Day 2 (17M). Decreasing volume on pullbacks intraday suggests constructive demand absorption.
• Volume-by-price (intraday) shows heavy participation near 49.5–50.5 (developing VPOC/acceptance). That creates a strong demand shelf.
• Anchored VWAP (anchor 9/24 gap open) approximates around 50.0–50.7. Price > AVWAP into the close indicates sustained control by buyers above the most transacted price areas.

Trend and moving averages

• All short-to-intermediate MAs will lag far below price after a >200% gap. Hierarchy is bullish: Price > EMA(8) > EMA(21) > SMA(50) > SMA(200), with wide separation. This reflects an impulsive new regime. MAs provide no immediate resistance but serve as distant trailing supports; mean-reversion risk exists, but catalysts often maintain elevated regimes for several sessions.

Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14): Very elevated (est. high-80s/low-90s). Overbought, but in news-driven breakouts this can persist; overbought is a feature, not a sell signal, if breadth and structure remain healthy.
• 1H RSI: Mid-to-high 50s/60s, consistent with consolidation after the initial thrust and a bias to continue higher if 50–51.2 holds.
• MACD (daily): Strongly positive and widening histogram (bullish momentum impulse). On intraday, MACD has reset from overbought and is curling higher—favorable for another test of 55–57.
• Stochastics: Daily pinned; intraday cycling from oversold back up aligns with a potential late-session/next-session run.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (1D) exploded from sub-1 pre-event to 8–11 post-event. Expect 5–7 points of intraday range in the next 24h absent fresh headlines.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price riding above the upper band with band expansion—indicative of trend continuation; pullbacks toward the upper band are buyable in strong regime shifts.
• Keltner Channels: Clear outside-channel drive, often followed by flag consolidation before a second expansion leg.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• In a shock-up regime, price is far above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; bullish cloud expansion likely as lagging span clears prior price. Ichimoku confirms trend but offers little near-term resistance guidance due to the magnitude of the gap.

Wyckoff lens

• Phase A: Buying climax (to ~56.8) and automatic reaction (to ~49–51). Phase B: Re-accumulation with secondary tests around 50–51 defending value. If the next drive takes out 56.8 on expanding volume, that marks Phase C/D transition into markup.

Candlestick and price action

• 9/24: Large gap with a strong close—breakaway gap characteristic.
• 9/25: Long intraday wicks show both supply and aggressive dip-buying; net close well above the 50 pivot—constructive.
• Hourly: Series of higher lows post-midday; buyers defended 50 multiple times.

Gap behavior statistics

• Breakaway gaps tied to fundamental catalysts have a low probability of early full fills (often <25% within 3 trading days). The maintenance above 50 on Day 2 supports a non-fill near-term and favors sideways-up resolution.

Confluence summary

• Bullish factors: Above AVWAP and pivot P; defended 50 multiple times; 38.2% retracement held; momentum still positive; volume contracting on dips; developing bull flag.
• Cautionary factors: Elevated daily RSI/ATR; overhead supply 55.8–56.8; binary news risk typical of biotech (follow-on offerings/headline reversals possible).

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range 51.0–56.2 with an upward bias; probe into 55.8–56.2 likely. Expect multiple attempts; first touch may reject, but higher lows persist above 51–52.
• Bull extension (25%): Break and hold above 56.8 on rising volume opens 57.6 (Fib 61.8% ext) then 59.8 (R2). Fast tape possible given thin overhead supply and momentum chasers.
• Bear/mean-reversion (20%): Loss of 50.0/49.5 shelf triggers liquidity vacuum to 48.1 (Fib 38.2) and potentially 46.0 (50% retrace). Would likely require a negative headline or a failed breakout with heavy supply.

Trading plan construction

• Bias: Buy dips in the 51–52 zone where demand repeatedly appeared and AVWAP/pivot supports cluster.
• Optimal entry: Limit buy near 51.80 (within the 51.1–52.0 demand band, above pivot P=51.41). Alternative momentum add: stop-entry above 53.50 for a run into 55.8–56.2.
• Profit target: 56.20 (R1/predominant supply; just below 56.78 high to improve fill probability). Stretch target if momentum is strong: 57.60 (Fib ext), but base plan books at R1.
• Risk control (not part of the provided order fields, but essential): Tactical stop below 49.20 (beneath 49.5–49.7 acceptance to avoid stop-hunts). That yields approximate R:R ≈ (56.2–51.8)/(51.8–49.2) ≈ 4.4/2.6 ≈ 1.7x.

Catalyst and microstructure considerations

• News headline dependency remains high; monitor for offering/M&A confirmation updates. Liquidity is ample; slippage manageable but expect spreads to widen during surges.
• Watch the first hour VWAP tomorrow; maintaining price above session VWAP will be a key confirmation for the 56.2 test.

Bottom line

• The technicals favor a continuation test toward 56.2 while 50–51.2 holds. The highest-probability trade is a buy-the-dip into 51–52 with a take-profit into the 56 band.

24-hour price path prediction

• Expected range: 51.0–56.2 (base), with spikes potentially 56.8; tail risk up to ~57.6 if breakout accelerates; downside tails to ~48.1 only if 49.5 fails with volume.