QURE: After the Rug Pull, One More Leg Down Before a Base? My 24‑Hour Short Plan

Executive summary

• Regime shift: QURE just transitioned from a euphoric, news-driven uptrend (mid-Sep to end-Oct, 40–70 zone) to a violent gap-down on Nov 3 (67→23 intraday, close 34.29) with extreme volume, followed by a lower close on Nov 4 (30.44). This creates a classic island-reversal top and resets short-term trend to bearish while longer-term trend remains elevated versus pre-September prices.
• 24h bias: Bearish-to-sideways. Expect an early probe of 29.1/28.5 supports, with risk of a liquidity sweep into 28.0–27.9 (61.8% retrace of Nov 3 rally), then choppy bounce attempts toward 30.2–30.8. Base case path: lower first, then reflexive intraday mean reversion.
• Trade plan (next 24h): Favor a tactical short into 30.8–31.6 strength or at current 30.4 with stops above 32.6; take profit near 28.0 where multiple supports cluster.

Context and multi-timeframe read

1. Higher timeframe (daily)

• September 24 gap-up: 13.66 → 47.5 close on 70M shares, initiating a steep impulsive leg. Sustained advance into Oct 28 high 71.5, then distribution (Oct 29–31) 70.6→67.7.
• November 3 gap-down: open 23.05, low 22.85, high 36.19, close 34.29 on 30.7M shares. A massive break that leaves the entire 60–70 area isolated above with an unfilled gap. This forms a textbook island-reversal top: gap up (Sep), consolidation, then gap down leaving price marooned below—bearish medium-term.
• November 4: open 30.81, high 32.49, low 28.50, close 30.44 on 8.6M. Inside the prior day’s large range, but the close is well below Nov 3 close, signaling sellers in control short-term.

2. Intraday (hourly on Nov 4)

• Early fade from 30.8 to 29.6, strong mid-session squeeze to 32.49, then persistent selloff into the close and post-market print 29.15. Sellers aggressively sold strength near 32.5 (established supply). Closing below session VWAP reinforces bearish control.

Key levels, structure, and confluence

• Immediate resistance: 31.2–31.6 (intraday supply shelf/VWAP zone), 32.49 (Nov 4 H), 34.29 (Nov 3 close), 36.19 (Nov 3 H). Any rallies are likely capped first in the 31–32.5 band.
• Immediate support: 30.10, 29.61 (intraday lows), 29.15 (late print), 28.50 (Nov 4 LOD), then 27.95–28.00 (Fibonacci and pivot confluence).
• Pivot levels from Nov 4 OHLC (H=32.49, L=28.50, C=30.44):
  • Pivot P ≈ (32.49+28.50+30.44)/3 = 30.48
  • R1 ≈ 32.45 (aligns with 32.49 high/supply), R2 ≈ 34.47
  • S1 ≈ 28.46 (near 28.50 LOD), S2 ≈ 26.49 This is a tight confluence: the market respected R1 and S1 almost exactly on Nov 4.
• Fibonacci overlays:
  • From Oct 31 high 67.69 to Nov 3 low 22.85, 38.2% retrace ≈ 39.97; 50% ≈ 45.27; 61.8% ≈ 50.58. The rebound hasn’t even reached 38.2%, displaying weak demand.
  • From Nov 3 low 22.85 to Nov 3 high 36.19, 50% ≈ 29.52 and 61.8% ≈ 27.95. Price is coiling around 30–31 and risks a full test of 27.95–28.00.
• Gaps: A massive unfilled downside gap (roughly 36→67). Probabilities favor gap persistence near term; gap-fills of this magnitude typically take weeks/months, not days.

Indicators and quantitative read

• Trend/MAs (estimates):
  • 20D EMA ≈ upper 50s/low 60s after October run; price (30.44) is far below → short-term bearish and stretched under the 20D mean.
  • 50D SMA likely in 40s and rolling over; price below → medium-term damage.
  • 200D SMA likely in mid-teens; price still well above → long-term structure elevated relative to pre-run baseline, but that doesn’t negate the current bearish impulse.
• RSI (14D, estimate): Dropped from overbought in Oct to mid/low 30s now. Not extreme capitulation yet—room to push lower before classic oversold bounce.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross with expanding negative histogram; momentum favors follow-through to the downside.
• Stochastics: Likely sub-50 and curling down from a weak bounce, consistent with bear continuation.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands exploded wider post-gap; price closing in the lower half of the band envelope with band direction down—expect lower band tags on shock days; mean reversion bounces likely to be sold near the middle band (~20D SMA, far above at ~60), so rallies should stall well before any true mean reversion.
• Keltner Channels/ATR: ATR has expanded dramatically (daily true range 8–13 pts across the last two sessions). For the next 24h, an expected absolute move of ~2–4 points around the 30 handle is reasonable. That makes a 28 test plausible without requiring an outsized shock.
• Donchian channels: New lower channel breaks on Nov 3 set a fresh downside range; Nov 4 did not reclaim any meaningful prior channel highs, reinforcing downtrend status.
• Parabolic SAR: Flipped bearish post-gap; dots remain well above price—supporting sell-on-rallies.
• Ichimoku (daily, qualitative): Price is far below Tenkan and Kijun after the gap; the cloud is far above. Chikou line below price and cloud. Strongly bearish configuration; rallies into the Kijun/Tenkan zone are likely rejected initially.
• OBV/Volume: OBV collapsed on Nov 3; Nov 4’s rally into 32s was sold with strong volume. The heaviest volume node around 30–31 implies heavy two-way trade but with net distribution as closes are slipping.
• Anchored VWAPs:
  • From Nov 3 open: likely around 30–31 given the day’s high/close distribution. Nov 4 close below anchored VWAP suggests sellers in control since the gap event.
  • From Nov 4 session open: closing sub-VWAP confirms intraday seller dominance.

Price action and pattern diagnostics

• Island reversal: The combination of Sep’s gap up + Nov 3’s gap down isolates the prior high base and often precedes multi-week corrective phases.
• Bear flag candidate: Nov 4’s inside digestion beneath the large gap-down close fits the early formation of a bear flag. Loss of 29.1/28.5 would validate, with measured move potential toward 26.5–26.0 near S2 and round-number magnets.
• Candles: Nov 3 was a huge bullish reversal intraday but context matters—the close sat beneath major gaps; Nov 4’s red body near the lower half of its range is a bearish follow-through versus the prior close.

Market profile and order flow cues

• Clearly defined supply at 32.3–32.5 (spike rejection) and 34–36. Buyers failed to sustain above 31.6 despite several attempts; late-day fade and post-market print 29.15 indicate weak hands into the close.
• Expectation: A liquidity sweep under 29.1/28.5 is a high-probability setup, attracting dip buyers; however, the first bounce likely stalls sub-31.6 unless a fresh positive catalyst emerges.

Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (55%): Drift lower to 29.1, break 28.5 and probe 28.0–27.9 (Fib 61.8% and S1 confluence), then reactive bounce to ~30.0–30.4. Day closes around 29–30.
• Bull case (30%): Early squeeze into 31.2–31.6, possibly a spike to R1/32.45–32.5 where supply re-emerges; failure there rolls price back toward 30. Low odds of a sustained move >32.5 without news.
• Bear acceleration (15%): Fast break of 28.5 that doesn’t reclaim, extension to 27.2–26.5 (near S2), then weak close.

Risk management and trade construction

• Entry preference: Short into strength 30.8–31.6 where risk can be defined; acceptable to enter around current 30.4 given momentum.
• Stop (discipline): Above 32.6 (above Nov 4 high cluster and R1/R2 corridor). If very conservative, 33.1–33.3.
• Profit target: 28.0 primary (confluence of Fib 61.8% of Nov 3 rally, psychological 28, and just under S1). Secondary extension 26.5 (S2) if momentum accelerates.
• Reward/risk (to 28.0 from 30.4 with 32.6 stop): ~2.4 vs 2.2 → ~1.1:1. Improves materially if fills near 31.2–31.6.

What would invalidate the short

• Strong reclaim and hold above 32.5–32.6 with volume and multiple hourly closes; that would open 34.0–36.2.

Bottom line

• The technical stack—island reversal, sub-VWAP closes, bearish momentum, heavy supply at 32.5, and a magnet at 28—supports a tactical short over the next 24 hours. Expect choppy action, but the path of least resistance remains down until 28.0 is tested.