Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) – July 15th, 2025

Step 1: Long-Term Trend Assessment (Daily Chart)

• Medium-term (March 2025 – Early July 2025): RARE was oscillating in the $33–40 range, with persistent attempts to reclaim the $40 level. Support formed in the $34–36 zone repeatedly, with higher volume spikes on both breakdowns and rebounds.
• Short-term Collapse: On July 9, RARE surged to a high ($42.37), then gapped down sharply on July 10 to $31.03, following extreme volume (12.98M, >10× average). The next day continued this plunge, closing at $29.51, on sustained high volume (5.68M), then $29.23. Today, the stock plummeted further intraday, hitting a low of $26.85 and closing at $27.20 (volume: 4.63M—still 3–4× baseline).

Conclusion: The primary multi-month uptrend has been violently invalidated, replaced by a high-volume, momentum-driven breakdown. All recent supports were obliterated, and the gap-down suggests event-driven panic or devastating news/earnings.

Step 2: Gap and Event Analysis

• The July 10–11 gap indicates catastrophic news (likely failed drug trial, regulatory action, or extreme earnings miss).
• These gaps are rarely filled quickly; typically, price overshoots to the downside, then oscillates in a base-building phase (dead-cat bounce), or proceeds into further capitulation.

Step 3: Volume and Distribution Analysis

• Volume spiked heavily at the gap and remains very high. This is classic forced liquidation (institutional sell-off, margin calls).
• Despite intraday attempts to bounce (temporary rebounds to $29.36, $28.05, and $27.68), each rally is met with fresh supply and lower highs. Volume does not abate, showing no equilibrium.

Step 4: Support/Resistance and Market Structure

• Support levels: All major supports at $29.50, $31, and $33 are broken. Intraday low hit $26.85; next major historic support is unclear, possibly the psychological round number at $25 or even lower.
• Resistance: Immediate resistance is now the former supports ($28, $29.20, then $31). Each attempted bounce is feeble, confirming ongoing distribution.

Step 5: Momentum and Oscillators

• Noting the price's RSI would be deeply oversold on a daily timeframe after a three-day, >35% plunge.
• However, after extreme gaps, price can stay oversold for extended periods as the market seeks new equilibrium.
• MACD (inferred): Strongly negative; momentum overwhelmingly bearish. Attempts to buy the dip are overwhelmed.

Step 6: Intraday Microstructure (July 15)

• Opening near $29.34, then swiftly breaking $28 followed by flushes to $27.28 then $26.85. Attempted bounce late day stalls at $27.48, closes $27.20.
• Volume in each hourly candle stays heavy, no exhaustion.
• No V-reversal or stabilization yet—instead, just smaller, weaker bounces.

Step 7: Candlestick & Price Action

• Candlesticks: Series of long red bodies, with weak lower wicks, indicating no sustained buying interest.
• No hammer/dragonfly doji to signal a formal reversal or capitulation bottom; weak closes at/near lows all day, a very bearish trait.

Step 8: Gap Analysis – Likelihood of Bounce/Reversal

• Statistically, after extreme gap-downs, stocks experience brief dead-cat bounces. However, these typically occur after the first true capitulation candle (high volume, long lower wick)—which is absent here.
• High-probability scenario: further loss of confidence tomorrow, possible flush to next psychological support ($25–26), then stabilization.
• Buy-the-dip setups are dangerous until a reversal is proven by excess volume and price stabilization; aggressive shorts continue to dominate.

Step 9: Volatility & ATR

• Daily ATR has expanded enormously—from $0.90–$1.50/day to >$3.00/day. This supports the thesis that price could easily fluctuate another 7–9% intraday.

Step 10: Market Sentiment & Comparative Relative Strength

• Relative to the market/biotech peers, RARE is drastically underperforming since July 10. No sector sympathy is providing support. This is a company-specific event.

---

Synthesis and Probability-Weighted Outcomes

• Odds are heavily skewed to the downside for the next 24 hours. No basing pattern, no bottom signal, and no volume exhaustion—just distribution and failed bounces.
• Even if a weak bounce occurs, the weight of sellers and lack of new demand implies bounces will be capped at $28, $29.20, and likely fall into new lows.
• Short-setups remain dominant until evidence of a viable bottom emerges.

---

Final Trading Decision: Recommend to Sell (Short)

1. Open Short Position: Ideal entry $27.10–$27.30 ($27.20 current), as near to final hour close as possible for optimal risk-reward.
2. Profit Target: $25.30 (projected next flush/loss of round-number support, using expanded ATR and absence of demand).
3. Stop Loss (not requested, but advisable): $28.40–$28.60 (above today’s failed bounce highs, tight control to contain upside risk).

Summary Table

• Trend: Decisive breakdown, panic-selling
• Momentum: Bearish (unabated)
• Volume: High/liquidation
• Volatility: Extremely elevated
• Optimal Trade: Short $27.20 (or best fill)
• Price Target: $25.30 (24–36 hours)

Caveat: High volatility—use risk controls as dead-cat bounces may be sharp. Monitor for potential reversal signal (very high-volume hammer/long lower wick) before covering or considering long reversal.

Conclusion: Until clear basing/proven reversal, the path of least resistance remains lower; all bounces should be sold until proven otherwise.