RDDT spring, outside-day reversal, and a VWAP-backed push toward 220

Executive summary (24h outlook)

• Bias: Short-term bullish rebound within a broader corrective downtrend. Expect an early dip/pullback to ~210–211, then continuation toward 216–220 with supply capping near 220–221.
• Probability-weighted path (next session):
  • Base case (60%): Brief pullback to 210±0.5, trend resumes higher toward 217–220.
  • Bear case (30%): Failure to hold 210 leads to 206–205 test; buyers likely defend 203–200.
  • Tail (10%): Break <200 reopens 197–195.
• Trade plan: Buy on a pullback (limit) near 210.9 with a take-profit near 219.8 (below heavy resistance/round-number cluster ~220–221).

Price structure and context

• Big picture: RDDT rallied strongly into mid-September (peak 282.95 on 9/18), then transitioned into distribution and a sharp drawdown, bottoming at 202.60 on 10/1, undercut to 195.01 on 10/8, and reclaimed 200 on 10/9 with a strong trend day up closing 211.70. The 200–203 zone is now a pivotal support band (prior low cluster and psychological round number). Overhead supply sits thick from 218–226 and again 229–234 due to the 9/30→10/1 gap-down and subsequent congestion.
• Intraday 10/9: A well-structured sequence of higher highs and higher lows. VWAP reclaimed and held through the session; close near highs (211.7 vs 212.3 H). That’s constructive for a continuation attempt provided early pullbacks are bought.

Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• 10/9 daily candle: Bullish outside day/up (range 199.38–212.32) with a strong close (211.7). It fully eclipsed the 10/8 range (H 206.23, L 195.01) and closed above recent multi-day closes. This pattern often signals short-term reversal/continuation higher, especially after a prolonged downswing.
• Undercut & reclaim: 10/8 undercut the 10/1 low (195 vs 202.6), then 10/9 reclaimed 200 decisively. That “liquidity sweep/spring” setup commonly precedes a multi-day mean reversion higher.
• Inverted Head & Shoulders (tactical, developing):
  • Left shoulder ~10/3 close 207 area, head 10/8 low 195, right shoulder 10/9 intraday pullback ~207–208. Neckline ~211.9–212.3. A sustained break/hold above 212.3 projects a measured move of ~17 (neckline minus head) toward ~229—likely a multi-session target, with 219–221 as the first 24h milestone.

Trend and moving averages

• Short-term (5D): 5-day SMA/EMA has begun to curl up; price closed above it. This favors upside follow-through in the next session.
• Intermediate (10D): Approximate 10D SMA ≈ 214–215 using the last 10 closes. Price (211.7) remains just below it—an initial magnet/resistance.
• 20D: Weighted by September’s higher prints, the 20D average sits materially above price (low–mid 230s). That still frames the broader trend as corrective, but provides mean-reversion fuel for a bounce toward the low 220s.
• Takeaway: Momentum has flipped positive at the very short-term horizon while the intermediate trend remains down. This combination typically produces 1–3 day bounces into nearby moving-average resistance.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily): After the 10/1–10/8 selloff, daily RSI likely lifted from oversold/low-40s region with 10/9’s strong up day. This supports a rebound with room before overbought.
• RSI (hourly): Approaching 60–70 during the ramp, which argues for a tactical pullback early next session before another leg higher—ideal for a limit entry.
• MACD (daily): Negative but improving histogram; signal line flattening. Early-stage bullish inflection consistent with a 1–3 day counter-trend advance.
• MACD (hourly): Bullish and above zero—confirms intraday uptrend alignment.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) estimate ≈ 12–13 based on recent true ranges. A 24h move of ±5–10 points is entirely plausible. Upside to 219–221 fits within 1x ATR from a 210–212 entry, while downside to 203–205 is also within 1x ATR—underscoring the importance of buying pullbacks, not chasing strength.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price recently tagged/penetrated the lower band (~206–208 by inference) and snapped back inside the envelope on 10/9. Reversions from lower band often target the mid-band (20D MA) over multiple sessions, but within 24h the near-term objective is the 23.6% Fib/10D MA area around 218–222.
• Hourly: Price hugged the upper band late on 10/9, suggesting near-term overextension and an early-session mean reversion to the mid-band/VWAP (~209–211) before trend resumption.

Fibonacci retracements (swing 9/18 high 282.95 to 10/1 swing low 202.60)

• 23.6%: ~221.2; 38.2%: ~233.5; 50%: ~242.8; 61.8%: ~252.7.
• Current price is below the first retracement (23.6%). That level (221±1) is a natural first upside target and likely acts as initial resistance in the next 1–2 sessions. A 24h push into 219–221 is consistent with this framework.

Gaps, supply, and volume profile

• 9/30 close 229.99 → 10/1 open 213 created a large gap. Partial gap fill attempts have failed; the first meaningful fill zone sits 218–223. Expect supply to emerge 218–221.
• Volume shelves: Notable volume nodes around 205–210 (recent accumulation on 10/9) and 218–226 (August-September consolidation). Price tends to auction between nodes; after establishing value ~209–211, the next test is the overhead node ~219–226.

VWAP and intraday structure

• 10/9 session: Price reclaimed and held above session VWAP after ~14:30–15:30 UTC and trended higher into the close. A rising VWAP day with a near-high close indicates healthy intraday demand. Expect early dip-buys around 210–211 where VWAP and prior breakout levels cluster.
• Anchored VWAP (tactical concept): Anchoring to the 10/1 gap-down often places AVWAP resistance initially above price; given today’s strength, intraday pullbacks toward 210–211 likely coincide with AVWAP support from intraday anchors, improving risk/reward for longs.

Pivot points (calculated from 10/9 OHLC: H 212.32, L 199.38, C 211.70)

• Pivot (P): (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 207.80
• R1: 216.22; R2: 220.74; S1: 203.28; S2: 194.86
• Confluence: Our take-profit 219.8 sits just below R2 and the 23.6% Fib cluster, a prudent target inside resistance.

Ichimoku (daily, conceptual)

• Price below cloud with Tenkan turning up and Kijun likely near 230. The distance to Kijun offers mean-reversion potential over several days, while the cloud overhead warns against expecting a one-day trend reversal beyond 220–221.

Elliott/Rhythm (heuristic)

• A five-swing decline from 282 → 202 appears mature with a terminal undercut to 195. A-b-c or 1-2-3 corrective rebound toward 221–229 is consistent with the current phase. For a 24h horizon, the first leg (A/1) targets high teens/low 220s.

Relative performance and context

• While sector/macro not modeled here, the pattern is classic “capitulation, undercut, outside-day reversal.” Even in mixed tapes, these often produce 1–3 green sessions unless immediately negated below 203–200.

Risk management and invalidation

• Key supports: 210.8–210.9 (intraday breakout retest), 208.7–209.5 (10/9 VWAP region), 205–206 (hourly swing base), 200–203 (structural support/psychological level).
• Invalidation: A sustained break below 203 negates the outside-day signal and raises odds of a full retest of 200 → 197–195.

Scenario mapping (24h)

• If open gaps up above 212.3 (neckline): Look for a quick spike to 214–216, then a pullback to 211–212; the second push targets 218–220.
• If open is flat 210–212: Prefer buy-the-dip into 210.5–211.0, risk to 207.8–208.5, target 219–220.
• If open gaps down to 206–208: Only engage if buyers reclaim 209–210 quickly; otherwise pass and reassess at 203–205.

Why Buy (not Sell) for the next 24h

• Positive breadth across indicators at the tactical horizon: bullish outside day, hourly trend up, price > 5D average, VWAP reclaim, and a well-defined support band just below. The first major resistance layer (218–221) is 1x ATR above, offering better upside than downside if entries are taken on a pullback. Shorting into the first strong reversal day carries unfavorable squeeze risk.

Trade parameters

• Entry (limit): 210.9 (near hourly support/last hour’s intraday floor and anticipated early-session VWAP backtest).
• Take profit: 219.8 (below pivot R2 220.7 and the 23.6% Fib 221.2 to avoid front-running supply).
• Optional stop (analysis-only guidance): 207.9 (below pivot P and intraday shelf), yielding ~1:2.2 R:R (risk ~3.0, reward ~8.9) if filled at 210.9.

Bottom line

• Expect an early fade to 210–211 followed by a push toward 218–220. Buy the dip; avoid chasing strength into the 218–221 supply band. Take profits just inside resistance and reassess for a potential multi-day move if 221 is reclaimed with volume.