Step-by-Step Technical Analysis: Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)

1. Price Action and Trend Analysis

Recent Trend:

• From April through mid-June, RGTI traded in a broad range ($7.5 - $12) with intermittent spikes and retracements.
• Starting June 11, a decisive upswing began: after a period of sideways-to-negative action, the stock broke previous resistance near $12 with a sizeable volume spike (over 178M). Since then, each upward break (notably on June 11, June 16, July 2, July 16-18) has come on above-average or exceptionally high volume — classic signs of strong institutional buying.
• Current Price: $17.16 represents a more than 50% surge from late June lows ($11) and almost doubles the pre-breakout range from March/April. The last two sessions have seen continued momentum, closing near highs with shallow intraday dips, suggesting firm demand.

Trend Structure:

• Higher Highs and Higher Lows: Zooming in on July, each pullback has been minor, forming a classic ascending trend channel. Bulls have absorbed every dip, notably after the explosive move from $13.8 to $16.8 on July 16 with the highest volume since May (over 193M shares).
• Breakout Confirmation: The latest action decisively breaks out of the prior $13-$14.5 resistance zone. No prior historical resistance exists above — the stock is in price discovery.

2. Moving Averages (MA)

• 50-day MA Estimate: Given the chart, the 50-MA is likely trailing behind, estimated near the $12–13.5 range due to the recent rally.
• 20-day (Shorter MA): Estimated near $14.5–15 — recent price distance above this average shows a strong, but potentially stretched, move. Historically, such extensions result in two scenarios:
  • Blow-off tops with sharp retracements; or
  • Ongoing parabolic continuation if fueled by new fundamental catalysts or major technical breakouts.

Current Setup: Price is more than 10% above the 20-MA and ~30% above the 50-MA, indicating an overbought but powerful trend.

3. Volume and Momentum Analysis

• Several key up days had volumes of 80–190M, dwarfing the moving average, supporting real accumulation.
• The July 16 breakout on 193M shares confirmed the fresh buying; follow-through days after this (moderate volumes but prices firmly above breakout) show little profit-taking.
• The volume spike in late May and again in July underscores major inflows — typical of an early-stage, high-momentum move.

4. Volatility Indicators (ATR, Bollinger Bands)

• ATR (Average True Range): Based on the candle ranges (e.g., $13.8 to $16.8, $16.1 to $17.17) — current ATR approaches ~$1.5–$2 per day, indicating significant intraday/intraweek volatility.
• Bollinger Bands: With price riding upper band aggressively, this typically signifies an overbought condition — but in a fresh breakout, it often supports further upside and only warrants caution as the band dramatically widens (which appears to be happening now).

5. RSI and Momentum Oscillators

• RSI Estimate: With the steep rally and consecutive positive closes, RSI is logically in the 80+ range. This puts the short-term setup as overbought, but — in the context of powerful breakouts — secondary rallies can occur before meaningful reversals.

6. Candlestick, Gaps, and Chart Patterns

• No Exhaustion Gaps/Yielding Tops: No major topping candle/lower close or ominous reversal bar has formed. Last three sessions have small upper/lower wicks — showing steady buying and muted supply.
• Parabolic Arc Formation: The recent move fits a near-parabolic curve, a classic late-stage trend signal. This can attract both late buyers and short-term sellers.
• Possible Cup-with-Handle Base: Prior multi-month base from April–June, followed by sharp breakout, is consistent with bullish base-building and breakout theory.

7. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: None (ATH — all-time high territory).
• Nearest Support: Intraday lows ($15.73 from July 17, $16.7 from July 18).
• Major Support: Previous resistance ($13.7–$14.2, and $11.8–$12.7) now serves as strong support should any retracements occur.

8. Fibonacci Extensions (from June lows to July highs)

• 100% extension (impulse move) from recent $11.35 breakout = $16.35.
• Current move is already testing the 161.8% extension (~$17.1–$17.2) — often a natural short-term resistance before consolidation or a further leg higher.

9. Additional Techniques: VWAP, Elliot Wave, Market Psychology

• Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): The sharp price advance is consistently trading above the volume-weighted average since July 2, showing distributive/accumulative strength.
• Elliot Wave Analysis: Move from $11 to $17 fits third wave logic (strongest rally) — usually followed by a sharp correction (fourth wave), then a final fifth wave (often less powerful), so short term some profit-taking risk is rising.
• Market Psychology: FOMO (fear of missing out) dynamics likely in play — the move into new highs after a long base is often followed by temporary exhaustion as early buyers lock in gains and late buyers push for final gains.

10. Macro and Sector Influences

• AI, quantum tech, and speculative tech have seen strong inflows since late spring 2025 — aiding momentum. However, parabolic upside is always at risk of sharp, fast mean reversion in these stocks.

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Composite Probability Projection (Next 24 Hours)

• Bias: The trend remains up, but extension is extreme and momentum is stretched. The price is testing natural Fibo extension and could consolidate or stage a mini blow-off to $18–$18.20 before a real retracement.
• Scenario 1: Quick move up to $18.0–$18.2 (profit-taking begins on intraday reversal, closing lower or flat to $17.0)
• Scenario 2: Brief sideways consolidation $16.7–$17.3, followed by continuation to $18+ if no sell signals arise
• Scenario 3: Immediate reversal (less likely given the chart action) with hard profit-taking to $16.1 or $15.7

Final Trading Decision

Recommendation: Sell (Short Position) Within Overextended Region

• Reasoning:
  • The trend is firmly bullish, but the parabolic move is historically unsustainable at this angle without some form of mean reversion or shakeout (especially after hitting the 161.8% Fibo extension).
  • Overbought conditions (estimated RSI 80+ and distance from short/long MAs), combined with all-time high in price discovery, suggest a high risk of sharp intra-day or next-session pullback as traders and funds secure profits.
  • Risk/reward for fresh longs here is unattractive. More conservative traders could wait for a retrace to $16.2–$16.5 for longs, but risk of sharp near-term profit-taking is high.

Short Entry Recommendation

• Open Price: $17.10–$17.20 (as close to current price/ATH as possible)
• Take Profit: $16.15 (above key intraday supports, below likely retracement targets, covering before major rally supports — conservative profit goal)
• If momentum does not slow and further orders come through, re-evaluate with stop above $18.20.

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Summary:

• The stock is near term overbought and at the upper range, making it ripe for a sharp profit-taking move.
• Enter a short at $17.16 (current price), targeting $16.15 for swift downside capture.
• Re-evaluate at $18.2+ if move continues — cut loss on strong new high breakout.

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