Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) — Technical Analysis for June 13, 2025

1. Trend and Price Action Analysis

Daily Chart Analysis

• Recent trend: RGTI has experienced a significant surge, running from a May 2025 low under $9 to a May 22 high of nearly $14.44, followed by a multi-session consolidation in the $12–$14 range. Most recently, after several high-volume spikes, the price retraced from a short-term peak of $13.56 on June 11 to $12.10 by June 12 close.
• Short-term momentum: There was a strong gap-up and trend extension on June 11 (from $11.23 to $12.52, high of $13.56). However, selling throughout June 12—closing at $12.10, off the session’s high—indicates a short-term correction.

Intraday Chart Analysis (June 12, 2025)

• High volatility, with an opening gap near $12.61 up to $13.38, then persistent selling pressure, cascading down to $12.10 by the end of regular trade.
• Volumes: Sell volumes are prominent in the declining sessions post-13:30 through 20:00, pointing to profit-taking and lack of strong support above $12.5–$12.7 intraday.

2. Technical Indicators & Oscillators

Moving Averages

• 50-day SMA: Estimated around $10.80–$11.00 based on recent data; price is currently extended above this average, indicating a potentially overbought short-term situation.
• 20-day EMA: Likely near $11.80–$12.00; the price is only slightly above, suggesting short-term momentum is flattening.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Recent daily RSI: Likely above 60 but below 70 after recent run-up and subsequent selling. Indicates topping, but not fully overbought; risking further downside before rebalancing.

Volume Profile

• June 11 volume: Massive (178 million), paired with a closed upper wick on the daily candle—classic signal for possible local top or distribution.
• June 12 saw strong sustained volumes (93 million) on a negative candle, supporting further consolidation or short-term retracement.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• The MACD will still be positive due to previous surges, but its histogram likely flattened or snapped back, mirroring weakening buying momentum.

Bollinger Bands

• After the explosive range, prices breached upper Bollinger Bands on June 11, with subsequent mean reversion underway as of June 12—a typical post-parabolic pattern.

3. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Breakaway Gap: The jump on June 11 could be called a breakaway or exhaustion gap, given the reversal the following day.
• Fading rally: Selling pressure after the gap and failed follow-through validates profit-taking by short-term bulls.
• Support/Resistance:
  • Immediate resistance: $12.60 – $13.00 (intraday failed retests).
  • Next support: $11.80 (recent lows and consolidation base); stronger support near $11.20.

4. Candlestick Patterns

• Bearish engulfing / shooting star: June 12 session leaves a reversal tail and substantial upper shadow; prior day (June 11) leaves a long upper wick—together signaling a likely local high.

5. Advanced Techniques

Fibonacci Retracement

• Measuring from the local swing low ($11.08 June 10) to the swing high ($13.56 June 11):
  • 50% retracement at ~$12.32, already sliced below.
  • 61.8% retracement around $12.08, right at the June 12 closing price. Failure to stabilize here could see a move toward $11.80 (78.6% level, near strong support).

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

• Intraday VWAP for June 12 likely near $12.60; as the session closed below this, it suggests that sellers were dominant and intraday dips are not yet being bought.

Stochastic Oscillator

• Having likely descended below 70 following the failed extension, and trending lower—potential for additional downside in short-term momentum.

Elliott Wave/Mean Reversion

• The current move appears to be the completion of a short-term impulsive rally (wave 3 or 5), followed by a corrective phase (ABC correction), which may not yet be complete.

6. Sentiment and Volatility

Volatility Index (Historical)

• Price swings are wide (13%+ intraday swings), which often come near local tops/bottoms; a pattern consistent with impending retracement post speculative surges.

Supply/Demand Imbalance

• High volume at highs, paired with lower closes, suggests institutional selling or large trader profit taking.

7. Order Flow & Liquidity

• Late June 12 order flow points to heavy closing sales into the $12.10 close; the limited attempts to recover above $12.25 were weak and brief.
• Thin order book above $12.30, so even minor sells can pressure the stock lower in the near term.

8. Final Synthesis & Risk Analysis

• Short-term (next 24 hours):
  • Selling momentum dominates; a test of recent support at $11.80 appears likely.
  • While a short-term relief bounce could trigger above $12.22, failure to reclaim $12.60 quickly suggests lower lows.
  • Downside volatility risk remains elevated; gaps could occur at the next open.
• Risk: If the price regains and closes above $12.60 on strong volume, the short call would be compromised. A stop above $12.75 (recent resistance) is prudent for short sellers.

Conclusion (Trading Decision)

Given multiple converging factors—failed follow-through, technical resistance, loss of intraday momentum, exhaustion signals, and mean reversion underway—the optimal plan is a Short (Sell) Position.

Execution Plan

• Open Price: Optimal entry on any minor relief bounce, ideally around $12.20–$12.25.
• Profit Target: Close position at ~$11.80, corresponding to major support and likely bounce zone for buyers.

Summary: The risk/reward presently favors tactical shorting, targeting an exit as RGTI revisits the $11.80 support to capture the ongoing short-term mean reversion.