Quantum Whiplash: RGTI Poised for a 24‑Hour Mean‑Reversion Bounce off 50% Fibonacci Support

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bounce likely from a high-confluence support zone; upside into 37.8–39.0 favored if 34.6 holds.
• Trade type: Mean-reversion long within a broader corrective down-channel.
• Invalidation: Break and hourly close below ~34.60 would expose 33.0–32.1.

1. Market structure and price action

• Regime: After a parabolic run to ~58.15 (10/14), RGTI is in a corrective phase with a clear sequence of lower highs (44.27 → 39.12 → 35.18) and lower lows (37.07 → 35.15). That’s a short-term downtrend within a still-upward higher-timeframe structure (price remains above the estimated 50-DMA).
• Key confluence: Today’s low 34.65 printed essentially on the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire July low (~12.18) to Oct high (~58.15). 50% Fib ≈ 35.17; price probed 34.65 and bounced to 35.75 after-hours. That is a classic “flush into major support” behavior.
• Gaps: The 10/2 → 10/3 upside gap (35.40–36.99) is now fully filled, reducing downside magnetism in the near term. Larger October gaps have also been addressed, which often precedes stabilization.
• Pattern: A short-term falling channel/falling wedge on the daily and 60-min charts. Late-day/after-hours stabilization suggests potential for an upside channel break in the next session if buyers sustain above ~35.3–35.8.

2. Trend and moving averages (SMA/EMA)

• Approx 5-D SMA ≈ 40.1; 10-D SMA ≈ 39.2; 20-D SMA ≈ low-41s; 50-D SMA ≈ ~30–31 (coarse estimate). Price (~35.7 after-hours) is below 5/10/20-D but still above 50-D. Translation: short-term downtrend inside an intermediate uptrend — ripe for mean reversion if a support holds.
• Slope check: 5/10/20-D slopes are down (bearish momentum), but the distance-to-MAs has stretched; mean-reversion risk is elevated to the upside over 1–2 sessions.
• 8/21-EMA combo (momentum MAs): Price sits materially below the 8-EMA (≈37–38) and 21-EMA (≈40–41). First upside targets on a bounce are often the 8-EMA band.

3. Momentum (RSI/Stoch/MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-30s (33–36) after a four-session, ~20% drawdown (44.27 → 35.18). That is near oversold and consistent with bounce potential at a major Fib.
• 60-min RSI: Registered sub-30 on the midday flush to 34.65 and then made a higher RSI low as price retested 35–35.15 later — a bullish momentum divergence on intraday frames.
• Stochastics (daily/60-min): Deeply oversold with a nascent cross-up on the 60-min — typically precedes 1–2 day relief moves.
• MACD (daily): Bearish and below signal with a negative histogram, but histogram contraction into the close suggests downside momentum is slowing as price hits support. On the 60-min, MACD shows early turn.

4. Volatility and range (ATR/Bollinger)

• ATR(14) daily: Elevated, roughly 4.8–5.5. Expect wide bands and sharp moves. A 24h round-trip of 4–6 points is well within norms.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~41–42; lower band likely 31–33. Price pinged near the lower-half of the envelope; reversion toward the mid-band begins with a test of the 20-DMA zone over multiple days, but the first bounce target is usually the lower-to-mid band on shorter timeframes (37–39 near-term).

5. Volume, liquidity, and VWAP context

• Recent sessions: Distribution volume off the highs was heavy mid-October; the past week shows declining sell volume relative to the mid-October liquidation — consistent with a maturing correction.
• 11/04 intraday: Heavy prints on the flush into 34.65 followed by stabilization into the close and after-hours 35.75. That’s indicative of short covering and/or early dip-buy interest at a key level.
• Intraday VWAP (11/04): Approx mid-36s to high-36s based on the hourly blocks; price closed below VWAP, creating a magnet for a VWAP test early next session (i.e., 36.7–37.2 first upside pivot).

6. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Primary swing: 12.18 → 58.15 range = 45.97.
• Retracements off the high: 38.2% ≈ 40.57; 50% ≈ 35.17; 61.8% ≈ 29.75.
• Price is stabilizing at the 50% retracement, a high-quality level often used by institutions for partial re-entry after a strong advance. Failure there would likely target 61.8% (~29.8), but that typically requires a catalyst or persistent risk-off.
• Intraday micro Fibs (from 11/04 low 34.65 to ~38.15 intraday rebound): 38.2% pullback ~37.0; 61.8% ~35.8. Price is hovering around 35.75–35.80 after-hours — i.e., near the 61.8% of the intraday rebound, where bulls often defend on the following open.

7. Market profile / support-resistance map

• Immediate supports: 35.17 (50% Fib), 34.65 (today’s low), 33.98–33.5 (prior pivot/volume shelf), 32.10–31.64 (late-Sept nodes), 29.8 (61.8% major Fib).
• Near resistances: 36.7–37.2 (intraday VWAP/11/04 supply), 37.78–38.20 (hourly supply), 39.12–39.41 (11/03 close + 10/29 close), 40.24–40.57 (fib 38.2% and prior close), 42.5 (10/30 close), 44.27 (10/31 high).
• Interpretation: Tightest battleground sits 36.7–38.2. A clean reclaim and hold over ~38.2 would open 39.4–40.6.

8. Candles and microstructure

• 11/04 daily candle (regular hours) closed weak at 35.18, but the post-close bounce to ~35.75 reduces the bearishness and hints at a potential next-day hammer if follow-through continues on the open.
• 60-min sequence shows a selling climax (wide spread, high volume, lower wick) followed by stabilizing candles and a higher close into the final blocks.

9. Cross-method synthesis (Wyckoff, Elliott, Ichimoku)

• Wyckoff: Post-climax markdown likely reaching “stopping action” at 50% Fib with increased turnover. Need a sign of strength (SOS) via reclaiming 37.8–38.2 to confirm.
• Elliott: July→Oct was a 5-wave advance; the Oct→Nov pullback reads as an ABC correction. The C leg appears to be truncating near the 50% major Fib — a typical termination zone.
• Ichimoku (daily): Price below Tenkan/Kijun and under cloud (bearish backdrop), but distance from Tenkan is large, favoring a mean-reversion attempt. On the 60-min, a potential Tenkan>Kijun cross is setting up if price reclaims 37.5–38.

10. Risk/reward and scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Bounce toward 37.8–38.8 as shorts cover and mean reversion tests intraday VWAP and the 8-EMA zone. Catalyst: confluence support + oversold momentum.
• Bear case (25%): Early fade loses 35.2–34.6; accelerated slide to 33.8–33.0 amid risk-off tape; invalidates the long scalp.
• Stretch bull case (20%): Strong squeeze through 38.2 → 39.4–40.2 if liquidity pockets thin and general market is supportive.

11. Execution plan and levels

• Entry: Prefer a buy-limit just above the 50% Fib and near today’s defended area to maximize R:R if dip buyers re-engage. 35.30 is optimal, allowing for a small early-morning wobble while targeting a reversion leg.
• First targets: 36.7 (VWAP test), 37.8–38.2 (supply band). Chosen take-profit aligns near the upper bound of the base-case move.
• Invalidation (not part of order schema but critical): A decisive break and hour close below 34.60 would neutralize the bounce thesis and suggest stepping aside.

Conclusion

• The confluence of the 50% major Fibonacci, intraday bullish divergence, oversold momentum, fully filled early-October gap, and late-day stabilization supports a tactical 24h long. Expect a VWAP/mid-band reversion toward 37.8–38.8 if 34.6 holds on the open. I will Buy with a limit near 35.30 and look to exit into 38.80 within the next session.