Rivian’s Breakaway Gap: Buy the Pivot Pullback for a Run at R1

Comprehensive multi-technique analysis for RIVN (close: 15.22 on 2025-11-06)

1. Price action and structure (daily and intraday)

• Multi-week context: After bottoming near 11.64 (Aug 6), price advanced into late September (~15.8), then corrected through October (trough ~12.5 on Nov 4). Today’s session gapped up >20% from 12.50 to ~15.26 and finished at 15.22 on heavy volume, reclaiming the entire October supply zone (13.2–14.7). This is a decisive regime shift back to a bullish bias.
• Today’s candle: Gap-up spinning top with long intraday range (H 15.61, L 14.48). The real body is small and near the prior resistance area, signaling post-gap digestion rather than immediate reversal. Buyers defended 14.5–14.7 multiple times intraday and pushed the close above the day’s central pivot region (~15.10), constructive for follow-through.
• Intraday structure (Nov 6): Opening drive up to 15.61, swift shakeout to 14.56 (38.2% retrace of the day’s range—see Fibonacci), then a sequence of higher lows to ~15.31 before a modest close at 15.27. Demand emerged on dips; supply weakened above 15.3–15.5 but did not overwhelm.

2. Volume and participation

• Volume expansion: ~88M shares vs recent daily averages in the 30–50M range indicates an event-driven reset and likely institutional participation. High-volume breakouts that clear multi-week ranges often see 1–3 sessions of follow-through as new longs are initiated and shorts cover.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Both would pivot sharply higher on such a gap with a mid-to-high close. The balance of volume on up-moves intraday supports accumulation rather than distribution.

3. Momentum studies

• RSI (14, daily): Approx mid-to-high 60s after the gap (estimate ~66), signaling strong positive momentum but not extreme overbought. Room exists for an additional push toward 70–75 before a deeper mean reversion is likely.
• MACD (12,26,9): Likely turned up with a positive histogram after weeks of compression. A fresh bullish cross with expanding histogram typically supports 1–2 additional up days.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): Likely in/entering overbought, but stochastic can remain overbought during post-gap continuation phases.
• ADX/DMI: Trend-strength indicator should begin rising from sub-20/20s; +DI crossing above -DI is consistent with a trend re-acceleration. Early ADX upturns usually precede the strongest part of a move.

4. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA ≈ 13.24 (approx). Price is decisively above 20D and likely above 50D as well, reasserting a bullish trend state on the daily timeframe.
• Slope: Short-term EMAs (8/13) and SMA(20) are inflecting up; price > EMA cluster suggests buy-the-dip conditions near intraday VWAP/tenkan/kijun equivalents.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR: Expanded sharply today; next-session true range risk likely 0.9–1.2 points. Plan entries around pullbacks with room for volatility noise.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price has broken and closed above the upper band (classic breakout). In strong regimes, price can “walk” the upper band with shallow resets to the band or 5–10 EMA.
• Keltner Channels: Break above upper Keltner signals momentum. Momentum continuation is favored while price holds above mid-channel (~20EMA proxy).

6. Support/resistance and pivot map (using 11/6 OHLC)

• Classic floor pivots from 11/6: P ≈ 15.10, R1 ≈ 15.73, R2 ≈ 16.23, S1 ≈ 14.60, S2 ≈ 13.97.
• Fibonacci retracements (from 11/6 H 15.61 to L 14.48): 38.2% = 14.54 (tested), 50% = 14.21, 61.8% = 13.87. Confluence: S1 ~14.60 aligns with 38.2% at 14.54; S2 ~13.97 aligns with 61.8% ~13.87. This creates a sturdy demand shelf 14.5–14.6.
• Horizontal levels: 15.00–15.10 (pivot zone/round number), 15.30–15.50 (intraday supply band), 15.73 (R1), 16.00–16.25 (psychological + R2 zone). Prior September resistance near 15.95–16.17 is a magnet if momentum persists.

7. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Intraday VWAP (11/6) approximated around low 15s. Price oscillated around VWAP in the afternoon and reclaimed into the close—bullish for next-session dips into VWAP/Pivot.
• Anchored VWAP from the gap-open (11/6, ~15.26) likely sits near 15.1–15.2 by the close. Maintaining price above this anchored VWAP favors continuation; dips toward that line are high-probability buy zones.

8. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is back above the cloud; tenkan is likely crossing above kijun with price well above both—classic bullish configuration. A future Kumo twist could further support upside if follow-through occurs over the next 1–2 weeks. Near term, kijun/tenkan pullbacks often buy around the pivot zone.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Breakaway gap above multi-week range: These gaps frequently lead to a consolidation day with a bullish bias (inside day or modest range expansion) before pressing into R1/R2. The spinning top after a gap typically reflects position reshuffling; absence of a bearish confirmation on the next open favors a continuation attempt.
• Intraday bull flag: The post-selloff higher-lows sequence from ~14.56 to ~15.31 into the close resembles a developing bull flag. A push through 15.30–15.50 would validate and aim at 15.7–16.0.

10. Wyckoff lens

• Phase C/D characteristics: Spring-like reclaim of overhead supply with volume expansion and a strong close above resistance. Today reads as a Sign of Strength (SOS) with a Backing-Up to the Edge of the Creek (BUC) likely near 15.0–15.2. That back-up zone is the preferred long entry.

11. Elliott wave (tactical, qualitative)

• The surge off 12.50 into 15.6 looks like an impulsive wave (1/3). The intraday pullback to ~14.56 is a wave-2 style retracement (~38.2%). Wave 3 of a smaller degree could target the 1.0–1.272 extensions around 15.7–16.2 in the next 24 hours if 15.0–15.1 holds.

12. Market profile/volume profile (qualitative)

• Value built around 15.1–15.3 intraday. Expect initial balance tomorrow to center near 15.1–15.3. Acceptance above 15.3 should rotate price to 15.5/15.7; failure re-tests 14.8–14.6 value edge.

13. Relative/sector context (qualitative)

• EV/auto beta tends to amplify market moves on event days. The magnitude of today’s move implies stock-specific drivers. Without needing the catalyst, the tape says strong relative strength versus its own recent history. If the broader market is neutral-to-positive, continuation odds increase.

14. Risk management and scenario planning (next 24h)

• Bullish base case (60%): Early dip toward 15.05–15.15 (pivot/VWAP zone) is bought; price rotates through 15.30–15.50 and probes R1 15.73. Stretch targets/overshoots can print 15.9–16.2 if momentum reignites or if there’s a strong open.
• Neutral consolidation (25%): Range holds 14.95–15.55, building value above the pivot in a high-level flag. Close near 15.2–15.4.
• Bearish risk (15%): A decisive break and hold below 14.60 (S1/38.2% fib) would open a gap-fade toward 14.20 (50% fib). Invalidation of the bullish 24h call occurs on sustained trade <14.48 (today’s low).

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence bullish: Breakaway gap over multi-week resistance + volume surge + pivot/VWAP reclaim + supportive momentum/ADX turn + fib confluence at 14.5–14.6 = buy-the-dip setup.
• Optimal entry: Staggered or single entry near 15.05–15.15 (pivot/anchored VWAP zone). This aligns with today’s value area and keeps risk contained against 14.48.
• Profit objective: First objective at R1 ~15.73; secondary extension to ~16.00–16.20 if tape remains firm. For a single target per instructions, set 15.75 to capture the R1 test with positive expectancy.
• Risk reference (not part of order fields): Logical stop below 14.48 (session low/38.2% fib sweep). Risk ~0.60–0.70 vs reward ~0.60–1.10 to 15.75/16.2. Expectancy improves with partials or dynamic stops, but single-take-profit remains attractive given the setup.

Next 24h expectation: Mild early pullback to pivot (15.0–15.2), then grind higher to test 15.7; upside tail risk to 16.0–16.2 if momentum broadens. Failure below 14.6 would negate.