Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

1. Trend and Structure Analysis (Daily/Intraday)

• Macro Trend: Reviewing the chart from February through mid-June, the dominant structure is a protracted downtrend, periodically punctuated by violent volatility and rare spike-based rallies (notably in early May, with prices peaking above $13 before quickly collapsing).
• Current Structure: Most recent sessions show a massive gap down on June 17 (from ~$9.64 closing to an intraday low of $5.38), followed by choppy, suppressed recovery attempts. Intraday, after the gap, the price oscillated between $5.51–$6.20. The session closed at $6.13, near the intraday high but beneath previous multi-week support levels.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: The tremendous surge in volume (~120M on June 17, compared to 30–40M on prior spikes) is typically indicative of panic-selling, forced liquidations, or major news. This is a classic climactic volume pattern often marking an interim bottom, at least in the short-term. The next session (June 18) saw a reduction in volume (~47M), but that's still elevated vs. average; suggesting high interest and active two-way trade, but with less aggressive selling pressure.

3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Key Resistance: Strong resistance is at $6.70–$7.00 (recent breakdown point), then at $7.50–$8.00 (former support now turned resistance from May lows).
• Immediate Support: Latest support established at $5.51 (today's low), then next at psychological $5.00. Prior breakdown pivots now act as weak support ($6.00–$6.13, today’s range midpoint), but aren’t robust.

4. Candlestick and Price Action Assessment

• Gap Down Reversal: June 17/18 features a gap followed by stabilization and a close off lows—a potential short-term exhaustion gap. The inability to continue breaking down after the panic sell hints at short-term sellers’ exhaustion.
• Intraday Range: The last few hours consolidated above $6.00, with buyers defending this level—suggesting positioning for a short-term technical bounce.

5. Momentum & Oscillator Review

• RSI (Estimation): Given the multi-day sharp drop and high-volume reversal, the daily RSI is likely deeply oversold (probably near or below 25). Extreme oversold readings rarely persist without a corrective bounce. Intraday oscillators likely rebounded from deeply negative, in-line with post-gap price resilience.
• MACD: The MACD on the daily chart points sharply down with the histogram extended—another classic sign of temporary downside exhaustion.
• Stochastic: Would be deeply oversold; the flattening and potential uptick seen in last hour’s recovery matches typical short-term bottoming signals.

6. Volatility Measures & Risk Parameters

• ATR (Average True Range): The ATR has exploded: recent daily candles have >$1.50 ranges, over 20% of price, signaling explosive risk but also opportunity for mean-reversion setups after an exhaustion event.
• Bollinger Bands: Price punched well below the lower band on both the gap and deep plunge—mean reversion is statistically favored after this extreme print.

7. Pattern Recognition & Historical Analogy

• Exhaustion Gap and Capitulation: Classic text-book ‘capitulation’ bar after a persistent shake-out. Historical analogs (see e.g. Jan 2023 for other solar names) often show a relief rally after such events, though the longer-term damage persists.
• No Clear Base Yet: No double-bottom or tight base yet, but the immediate absence of further downside after the climax supports a reflexive bounce trade.

8. Order Flow & Market Sentiment

• Order Flow: The drop was on massive sell volume, but buying reappeared aggressively at $5.50–$6.00, suggesting the stronger hands are starting to absorb supply.
• Sentiment: Market likely extremely bearish, with press and retail panic at highs; contrarian positioning incentives are high.

9. Statistical Edge and Probabilistic Outcome (Short-Term)

• Mean Reversion Probability: The confluence of technical oversold, panic volume, and bounce from session lows yields a historically strong probability for a 1–2 day reflex up-move.
• Downside Risk: If the $5.50 low fails, a move to $5.00 is likely; below $5, risk escalates substantially, so stops must be tight.

10. Strategy Synthesis

• Buy/Long Bias: With multiple oversold signals, exhaustion characteristics, and a notable absence of new lows after the panic, a carefully risk-managed long makes sense for a 1–2 day trade.
• Optimal Entry: Ideally, enter near $6.10–$6.13 (current price), targeting resistance at $6.70–$7.00 for a fast-trade. Slight pullbacks to $6.00 improve risk/reward, but waiting for $5.50 is unlikely to fill unless panic resumes.
• Risk Management: Stop below $5.50 for tight risk. Take profit near $6.80, where supply is expected.

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Final Technical Opinion:

Given the technical exhaustion, volume capitulation, immediate bid defense, and mean-reversion statistics, a short-term bounce is highly favored. Caution is warranted for investors, but a tactical long setup with profit target at first resistance is statistically optimal.