RUN poised for a VWAP dip-and-rip: buy-the-dip toward 18.60 for a push into 19.20

Below is a step-by-step, multi-method technical review of Sunrun Inc. (RUN) using the provided daily and intraday data, culminating in a 24-hour price path projection and a concrete trading plan.

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher-timeframe regime (Aug → Dec):
  • Massive momentum thrust off the Aug 15 surge (close 13.92 after a 10–15 range) initiated a broader uptrend into Oct with a peak at 22.44 (Oct 15). Since then, price has been oscillating in a volatile 17.5–21 range.
  • A sharp gap/flush on Nov 7 (close 17.13) changed character to a wider consolidation with mean-reversion behavior, but the market has defended the 17.5–18.0 shelf multiple times (Nov 20, Dec 3, Dec 5). That shelf is now a well-defined demand zone.
• Near-term (late Nov → now):
  • After a lower-high failure at 20.25 (Nov 28), RUN retraced to 17.58 (Dec 5). Since then, it has carved higher lows: 17.58 (Dec 5) → 17.85 (Dec 3/9 vicinity) → 18.06 (Dec 8) → 18.32 (Dec 10) → 18.71 (Dec 11 close). This staircase is constructive.
  • Today’s close 18.71 is near the session highs with a “power-hour” bid, a positive sign for overnight continuation.

2. Key support/resistance, liquidity, and gaps

• Immediate supports: 18.44 (today’s intraday dip), 18.32 (today’s 21:00 bar low), 18.06 (Dec 8 close), 17.58 (Dec 5 pivot low). Below that, 17.13 (Nov 7 shock low) is the line-in-the-sand for the bigger structure.
• Immediate resistances: 18.90–18.95 (today’s intraday high zone), 19.09 (Fibonacci/price confluence), 19.25 (Fibo 61.8% from the Nov-28 → Dec-5 swing), then 19.75–20.25 (heavy supply band where many rallies have failed).
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): Heavy transaction history around 18.2–18.6 from late Oct/Nov implies a high-volume node turned potential support. Overhead, 19.0–19.3 should host supply from trapped longs.
• Gap memory: The Nov 7 gap down left an overhead vacuum up into the low 20s; the partial fill to 20.25 (Nov 28) indicates remaining supply pockets above 20.2.

3. Moving averages and trend indicators

• Short moving averages (estimate):
  • 9-EMA ≈ 18.45–18.55; price closed above → short-term bullish bias.
  • 20-SMA ≈ 18.8–18.9; price just below/near it; reclaiming and holding above would confirm momentum shift.
  • 50-SMA ≈ 19.6–19.8; still overhead resistance and a natural magnet if momentum continues.
• Slope/stack:
  • The 9-EMA has turned up and is on track to cross/meet the 20-SMA on sustained strength; that crossover would strengthen the bullish case toward the 50-SMA.
• ADX/DMI (qualitative approximation): ADX rising from a low base with +DI curling above -DI suggests emerging, not yet mature, bullish trend strength.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) approximation ≈ 56: Neutral-bullish; momentum has exited oversold conditions and is trending upward but not overbought.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Rising from mid-zone and likely above its signal, consistent with an early bullish impulse; room to run before overbought conditions.
• MACD (qualitative): Histogram improving toward/above zero; signal-line curl higher indicates a developing bullish phase but not yet overextended.

5. Volatility and bands/channels

• ATR(14) estimated ≈ 1.1–1.3. A 24-hour directional move of 0.5–0.8 is feasible without extraordinary catalysts.
• Bollinger Bands(20): Middle band ≈ 18.8–18.9 (nearby). Lower band ≈ 17.3–17.5. Reclaiming the mid-band favors a drift toward the upper band region (~20.2) over multiple sessions. For the next day, a tag into 19.0–19.3 is realistic.
• Keltner Channels (qualitative): Price re-entering mid-channel with expanding range supports a test of upper channel on a positive open.

6. Ichimoku overview (qualitative)

• Price is likely approaching the Kijun/Tenkan cluster around the 18.7–18.9 band; a clean push through 18.9 and a hold above would tilt the balance bullish and set sights on 19.2–19.5. The near-term cloud ahead appears thin, suggesting an easier passage if buyers press.

7. Fibonacci confluences

• Oct 15 high (22.44) → Nov 7 low (17.13):
  • 38.2% ≈ 19.09; 50% ≈ 19.78; 61.8% ≈ 20.48.
  • The 19.09 level aligns with immediate overhead supply → an important checkpoint.
• Nov 28 high (20.25) → Dec 5 low (17.58):
  • 38.2% ≈ 18.59 (already reclaimed intraday today), 50% ≈ 18.92, 61.8% ≈ 19.25.
  • This creates a tight resistance ladder: 18.90–18.95 → 19.25, ideal for tactical targets in a 24-hour horizon.

8. Candlestick / price action patterns

• Dec 10 printed a constructive bullish bar (close 18.32) following Dec 9 weakness, hinting at a momentum turn. Dec 11 added a strong close near the highs with late-session strength.
• The sequence from Dec 3–5 showed hammer-like defense near 17.5–17.6, forming a higher-low base. Current action resembles an ascending triangle with a horizontal lid near 18.9.
• A decisive intraday breakout above 18.90–18.95 often begets a quick thrust into 19.1–19.25 where the next supply rests.

9. Volume, OBV, and accumulation/distribution

• Today’s total volume was moderate (≈3.9M) but the closing strength suggests real buyers stepped in late. Persistent closes above VWAP (intraday) imply accumulation.
• OBV (qualitative inference) has turned higher over the last two sessions, consistent with accumulation from the 17.6–18.3 base.

10. Intraday microstructure and VWAP

• Today’s session: open 18.20, push to 18.90, consolidate 18.44–18.68, then rally into close 18.71; likely VWAP ≈ 18.60–18.62.
• Closing above session VWAP is a positive tell. Tomorrow’s early test of prior VWAP (18.58–18.62) is a prime dip-buy zone if retested.

11. Regime/mean-reversion vs. trend-following odds (next 24 hours)

• Base case: Mild trend-following continuation after a higher-low base and strong close. Expect early pullback into 18.55–18.65, then a push to test 18.90–19.10. If momentum persists, tag 19.20–19.25.
• Probabilistic take (qualitative):
  • Bullish continuation: ~60%
  • Range-bound chop (18.45–18.95): ~30%
  • Bearish fade below 18.32: ~10%

12. Confluence summary (what matters most)

• Structure: Higher lows from Dec 5 + strong close → bullish micro-structure.
• Momentum: RSI mid-50s, MACD improving → room to advance.
• Levels: Powerful confluence at 18.90–18.95 (prior intraday high, 20-SMA vicinity, Fib 38.2 from the larger swing at 19.09). A breakout targets 19.18–19.25.
• Risk: Pullbacks likely to be bought at 18.55–18.65 (VWAP/9-EMA zone). Failure only if sustained trade below 18.32.

13. Strategy selection and trade plan

• Tactics: Buy-the-dip toward VWAP/9-EMA cluster with a limit order.
• Entry (optimal): 18.60 (limit) to exploit a probable early-session pullback.
• Primary target (next 24h): 19.18–19.25 (take profit at 19.18 to front-run the 19.20/19.25 supply band and improve fill odds).
• Risk guardrail (not part of the schema but essential): Stop ≈ 18.28 (below 18.32 pivot and today’s afternoon low zone), yielding roughly 1.8–2.0R to target.

14. Alternative pathways and invalidation

• Bullish extension: If opening drive gaps above 18.95 and holds, momentum could sprint to 19.25 quickly; partials near 19.10 then ride to 19.25.
• Range day: If price oscillates between 18.50–18.90, still favorable to accumulate on dips; take profit earlier near 18.95–19.05.
• Bearish risk: A decisive break and hold below 18.32 invalidates the setup; expect rotation back to 18.06 and possibly 17.58 if pressure persists.

15. Final 24-hour price path projection

• Pre-market drift 18.70–18.90; first-hour pullback 18.55–18.65; mid-day breakout attempt through 18.90 toward 19.10–19.25; late-session consolidation 18.95–19.15.

Conclusion

• The multi-tool read (structure, moving averages, RSI/MACD, Fib confluence, intraday VWAP behavior) favors a controlled dip-buy for a push into 19.1–19.25 within 24 hours. Risk is well-defined beneath 18.32, and the reward to 19.18–19.25 is aligned with ATR and overhead levels. Therefore, a tactical long is preferred.