EchoStar Corporation Price Analysis Powered by AI

EchoStar SATS: High-Volume Reversal Warns of Short-Term Pullback After Failed Breakout

Major Recent Weekly Context: In early May '25, SATS experienced a high-volume flush from ~$25 to a capitulation low near $16 (5/13 - 5/30) with volume spikes indicating forced selling or news-driven panic. Post-capitulation, a sharp V-shaped bottom formed, and price rallied on increasing volume on 6/16 to $25, suggesting strong reversal demand.
Daily Structure Since the Reversal:
- 6/16: Huge gap up (close 6/13: $16.84; open 6/16: $24.27), finishing at $25.11 on massive volume.
- 6/17–6/18: Brief retracement to $24.38, then reclaimed $24.87 with tight range and moderate volume.
- 6/20: Range 25.00–26.15, close $25.12 on accelerated volume (5.18M vs. prior 3.5M), but failed to break/hold the $26.15 high, closing lower within its range.
Short-term (intraday) Structure – 6/20:
- Strong open, spike to $26.15 (13:30–14:00)
- Immediate retrace below $25.70 and ranged between $25.02–$25.87 through the session
- Afternoon selling pressure pushed the close near $25.12 (low end of session)
- Large 20:00 (close) volume suggests institutional activity at session end.

Long-term Downtrend Intact: Since February, every rally was followed by a lower high and lower low, culminating in the May flush. However, the V-bottom and subsequent high-volume reversal in June break this sequence, implying a possible end to the downtrend or at least a strong corrective rally.
Short-term Trend: Last 5 sessions show higher lows ($16.84→$25.11), but today's failure above $26 and strong close-to-low print indicate short-term distribution or profit-taking.
Chart Patterns:
- V-Bottom reversal post capitulation is typical for sharp bounce backs where emotional selling exhausts.
- Potential bull flag or consolidation zone in $24.5–$26.2 zone, as price pauses after strong upward run.
- False breakout/Failure at $26.15: Intraday high not sustained, volume-backed, signals need for consolidation or a retrace before next leg up.

Capitulation Volume: The May–June collapse was met with the highest turnover of the year.
Strong Rally Volume on Reversal: 6/16–6/18, big buy volume, suggests new institutional demand.
Fade in Volume during Recent Attempted Breakout: Despite high close-volume, the bar closed near session low.
- Institutionals possibly distributing into strength above $25.70–$26.

(Implied) RSI/Momentum: After a rapid recovery, RSI (not given, but likely >70) is overbought. Momentum has peaked based on swing exhaustion and failure to hold at highs.
MACD (inferred): Fast run-up, with MACD line peaking and histogram shrinking, is a classic topping signal after a vertical recovery.

Immediate Resistance: $26.15 (6/20 session high, failed breakout).
Support: $24.60 (swing low before last move; previous high from reversal gaps).
Critical secondary support: $23.80 (gap fill territory from 6/16 and 6/17 opening support).

ATR (Average True Range, inferred): Recent days show increased ranges ($24–$26 = $2, compared to pre-reversal $0.6–$1.0). High volatility after vertical rally classically contracts before next impulse, favoring short-term mean reversion strategies.
Bollinger Bands (conceptually): After vertical climb, price closed at lower band after failing upper band. An initial mean-reversion pullback is likely unless $26.15 is reclaimed early on 6/21.

Buyer Exhaustion: After the panic bottom, the fast move to $25 has invited profit-taking, evident in range rejection at $26.15.
Late Longs at Risk: Traders entering on today's breakout attempt are at risk as price closed at session lows with volume spike, often a near-term top signal.
Potential Short-term Bearish Setup: The implication after multiple failed breaks and a close at session low (post vertical run) historically leads to a corrective pullback retracing up to half of the thrust ($24.60–$24.00 zone), before the underlying trend can resume.

End-of-day spike volume (20:00, >2.7M shares): Likely rebalancing, options expiration, or rotation flows, not necessarily bullish initiative. The inability for price to close above $25.20, despite the volume, implies absorption not accumulation.

Post-reversal, SATS has outperformed: Back above prior breakdown levels, but this makes the short-term overdone and vulnerable to healthy retrace.

The vertical reversal off $16–$25 has been incredibly swift. The stock attempts breaking $26, fails, and closes at the day's low on a major volume surge. This is typically a sell/profit-taking signal — short-term correction is very likely.
However, the bigger trend has likely bottomed with the May capitulation and June reversal, so this is a tactical (not strategic) short.

SATS is likely to retrace to the $24.30–$24.60 support zone in the near-term. If momentum sellers step in, wick could extend to $23.80. Only a reclaim and hold above $25.85–$26.15 reverses this thesis and resumes the upward trend.

Optimal Short Entry: $25.20–$25.25 (last print and possible dead-cat bounce at open)
Target: $24.40 (conservative, just above key support/congestion)
Stop Loss (not asked but for context): Above $26.20 breakout level

Tactical short recommended. The next 24h most likely scenario is a pullback/consolidation towards $24.40 before any new directional push.

Trade: SHORT at $25.20, exit at $24.40 for a $0.80/share gain.