Sell the Pop: Fading SG’s Post-Gap Base Below the $10 Wall

Summary of the tape and context

• Ticker: SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) | Currency: $ | Last: 9.61 (as of 2025-08-13 20:00–21:00 UTC)
• Regime shift: A large gap-down on 2025-08-08 from the 12s to the 9s on extreme volume (34.8M vs ~3–7M avg) reset the trend and created heavy overhead supply. Since then: three sessions of narrow consolidation between ~9.22 and ~9.85 with progressively lighter volume, suggesting post-gap digestion rather than decisive accumulation.
• Intraday (today): Range 9.22–9.85. Multiple sells into 9.80–9.85; late-day fade back to ~9.61. Strength repeatedly capped below round-number 10.00 and below the anchored VWAP from the gap day.

Multi-timeframe trend assessment

• Higher time frame (Apr–Aug): Clear downtrend from the April highs (~21) through a sequence of lower highs and lower lows; July bounce to mid-16s failed. The Aug 8 gap created new lows for the recent cycle and placed price far below medium-term moving averages.
• Daily trend: Bearish. Price is below the 20/50/100-day SMAs and below the 8/21 EMAs. Post-gap price action is a tight base under resistance rather than a forceful reversal.
• Intraday (hourly): Sideways-to-down channel since the gap. Lower highs (9.82–9.85 area) repeatedly sold; support nodes near 9.25 and 9.00.

Key levels (support/resistance, volume, psychology)

• Immediate resistance: 9.80–9.85 (today’s rejection band, repeated supply), 10.00 (psychological), 10.15 (gap-day high), 10.28 (38.2% retrace of 12.66→8.80), 10.73 (50% retrace).
• Immediate supports: 9.40–9.30 (intraday shelf), 9.25 (yesterday’s low), 9.06–9.00 (Aug 8 open/round number), 8.80 (gap-day extreme low; key line in the sand).
• Volume profile: A new high-volume node building 9.50–9.80 (“volume shelf”), which often acts as a magnet/resistance until definitively broken. Above 10.00 there is a low-volume pocket up to ~10.3, but heavy, trapped supply accumulates from 11–13 creating significant overhead friction beyond any short-term bounce.

Moving averages and crossovers

• 8/21 EMA: Bearish alignment (8 < 21) and both pointing down. Price below both; intraday rallies failing into the 8-EMA on hourly charts.
• 20-SMA (daily): Still well above price (estimated mid-12s) after the abrupt gap; the spread indicates persistent downside momentum. 50-SMA slopes down and sits far above price, underscoring a structurally bearish tape.
• Read: MA structure favors selling strength rather than buying dips until at least the 8/21 EMA flips and price reclaims 10.15–10.28 with volume.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated low-to-mid 30s (post-gap oversold bounce cooled off). Sub-50 regime = bearish. No bullish divergence of consequence yet; momentum stabilized but not reversed.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Lifted off oversold but stalled below 50–60; consistent with range-bound consolidation under resistance.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Deeply negative; histogram contracting slightly as volatility compresses, but signal-line cross not confirmed. Indicates waning downside acceleration but no bull trigger.
• MFI: Likely low 30s; no strong accumulation signature given today’s fade and supply at 9.80–9.85.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: Estimated ~0.70–0.85 post-gap (vs ~0.5–0.7 pre-gap). Near-term expected 24h range ~±0.45–0.55 from the last price under normal conditions, with tails to ~±0.8 if momentum expands.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Lower band expanded to the 9.0 area on gap then began to contract; price oscillating near/below mid-band proxy (still well below 20-SMA). Bandwidth contraction suggests a potential squeeze ahead, but confirmation requires a directional break — odds currently skewed down given overhead supply.
• Keltner Channels: Price resides near/below lower channel midline, consistent with trend pressure to the downside.

Ichimoku

• Price is far below the daily cloud; Tenkan < Kijun, both sloping down. Lagging span below price and cloud. All four classic bearish conditions intact. No base-line recapture yet; any pop to Kijun likely meets supply near 10.

Volume-based indicators

• OBV: Sharp down step on the gap followed by sideways drift — no meaningful accumulation rebound. Distribution remains the dominant theme.
• Accumulation/Distribution (Williams): Stabilizing but not trending up; intraday upticks are being sold into.

VWAP and anchored levels

• Anchored VWAP from the gap day (2025-08-08) likely clusters around 9.85–9.95 (given intraday time spent between 9.7–10.1 and heavy early distribution). Today’s repeated failures ~9.80–9.85 align with that AVWAP band, marking it as a sell-the-rip zone until decisively reclaimed.
• Session VWAP today trended below ~9.70 late; price into the close struggled to stay above it, indicating sellers in control into the bell.

Pattern structure

• Post-gap base: Tight consolidation under resistance often plays as a bear flag/continuation base when formed below AVWAP and the 8/21 EMAs. Lack of thrust above 9.85 after several tests hints at supply dominance.
• Candlesticks: 08-08 printed a hammer-like recovery off 8.80, but there was no strong follow-through; 08-11 to 08-13 show small-bodied candles/doji-like behavior — indecision under resistance, not reversal confirmation.

Fibonacci mapping (pre-gap swing 12.66 → 8.80)

• 23.6%: 9.71 (tagged intraday today and sold).
• 38.2%: 10.28 (untested since gap; coincides with next resistance band above 10.15).
• 50%: 10.73 (unlikely without a regime shift).
• Read: Sellers defending the 23.6% retrace adds weight to the short-the-pop thesis.

Statistical/structural probabilities (near-term)

• Baseline next-24h scenarios (qualitative): • Range trade 9.25–9.85: 45–50% • Breakdown under 9.25 toward 9.05–8.90: 25–30% • Breakout above 9.85 toward 10.15–10.30: 20–25%
• Skew: Slightly negative due to persistent overhead supply and failure to hold above session VWAP into the close.

Risk factors and catalysts

• Fundamental overhang likely from earnings/guidance miss (implied by gap and volume). Without a clear positive catalyst, trapped longs above 11–13 likely sell into bounces. Macro tape risk and beta shocks can accelerate moves. A decisive reclaim/hold above 10.15–10.28 with strong breadth would neutralize this view.

Trade thesis for the next 24 hours

• Core idea: Sell strength into the 9.80–9.85 AVWAP/23.6% Fib confluence with a target back toward prior support near 9.05–9.10. The risk/reward is favorable given ATR and repeated supply at that band.
• Entry: Prefer a patient limit at 9.82 to lean against the overhead band. If the market gaps down, avoid chasing; alternative trigger is a breakdown entry below 9.25 (not the primary plan, included for completeness).
• Targeting: First objective 9.12–9.06 (pre-gap open/round number); stretch objective 8.90 (above the 8.80 pivot) if momentum expands.
• Invalidation: A sustained push and hold above 10.06–10.15 (close above on 30–60m with volume) negates the immediate short; in that case, risk of a squeeze toward 10.28/10.50 increases.

Risk management (informational)

• Suggested stop (not required in output fields): ~10.06 (above today’s 9.85 supply and round-number overhead). From 9.82 entry, risk ≈ 0.24; to 9.06 target, reward ≈ 0.76; R:R ≈ 3.2:1.
• Position sizing: Scale appropriately for ATR ~0.75 and potential volatility expansion around open.

Bottom line

• The dominant technicals (trend, AVWAP resistance, EMA structure, failure at 23.6% Fib, weak OBV) favor fading pops rather than buying dips over the next 24 hours. Probability-weighted path is a retest of 9.25 and, if broken, 9.10–9.06. Until 10.15–10.28 is reclaimed on volume, the burden of proof remains on bulls.

Forecast for next 24 hours

• Expected range: ~9.15–9.95, with downside skew. Bias: Sell rallies into 9.80–9.85; look for a move toward ~9.06 if support at 9.25 gives way.