SIDU: Post-spike gravity—fade the exhaustion gap into the 61.8% retrace

Executive summary

• Setup: After a parabolic, news-driven surge this week, SIDU printed a large gap-up and long upper wick on 12/26, closing at 1.93 well below intraday VWAP and beneath multiple intraday high-volume nodes. This is classic exhaustion behavior with distribution into strength and a close near the lower half of the day’s range.
• 24h bias: Short-term downside/sideways bias with rallies likely sold. Expect a 1.78–2.10 trading band, with a tilt toward a retest of 1.82–1.85 (61.8% Fib area) and potential probe toward 1.65 if momentum turns.
• Plan: Favor selling into a relief pop toward 2.05–2.15 (anchored VWAP/Fib 50% confluence). Target 1.68 for profit-taking. Risk management: A push/hold above 2.23–2.32 invalidates near-term short.

Step-by-step technical deep dive

1. Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend regime: The stock bottomed mid-December around 0.85–0.90 and exploded higher (12/19–12/22), shifting the intermediate trend up. However, 12/26 printed a classic blow-off and fade: open ~3.00, high 3.38, low 1.765, close 1.93 (large upper shadow), suggesting buyers lost control intraday.
• Intraday (hourly) sequence 12/26: Successive lower highs from the morning peak; multiple failed VWAP reclaims; heavy selling waves into the afternoon; sharp flush to 1.85–1.86 and weak end-of-day recovery to ~1.93. Structure: Distribution day with overhead supply created between 2.40–3.00.
• Gaps: 12/24→12/26 gap-up was fully filled and overfilled intraday (to 1.76–1.85), reinforcing exhaustion characteristics. Post gap-fill, bounces tend to be sold 1–3 sessions.

2. Key levels (support/resistance, volume profile, supply/demand)

• Resistance: 2.10–2.20 (Fib 50% at ~2.12, anchored VWAP band, round number 2.00–2.20, prior close/swing). Above that: 2.29–2.30 (12/22 close), 2.45–2.50 (high-volume node), 2.60–2.80 (heavy distribution zone), and 3.00–3.38 (spike-high supply).
• Support: 1.82 (61.8% retracement of 0.855→3.38 leg), 1.85–1.90 (intraday pivot and bounce zone), then 1.65 (12/23 close/structure) and 1.50 psychological. If risk-off intensifies, a liquidity air-pocket down to 1.25 cannot be ruled out, but that is beyond base expectation for 24h.
• Volume profile: Massive nodes formed in the 2.4–2.8 area and again near ~2.0. Closing below these nodes implies overhead supply overhead; rallies into 2.05–2.20 are vulnerable to selling.

3. Momentum/oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~66. Momentum remains positive on a multi-day basis but is rolling over from overbought; the 12/26 candle suggests near-term distribution. Expect RSI to drift toward neutral (50–55) with another down day or two.
• MFI/OBV: OBV likely peaked on 12/26 near the intraday high and turned down with the sell-off; MFI should show distribution given volume/price divergence. Momentum confirmation favors sell-the-rip in next session.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross from the spike is intact but histogram is likely peaking/flattening. Early-stage bear divergence risk after a blow-off day.

4. Volatility/mean reversion bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): Elevated (~0.50–0.70) after massive ranges; intraday ATR ballooned to >1.0 on 12/26. A 0.25–0.45 next-day swing is very plausible even without fresh catalysts.
• Bollinger Bands(20): Bands have exploded wider; price closed inside but in the lower half of the day’s range, consistent with a volatility contraction day next or a drift lower toward the middle band on any relief bounce failing.
• Keltner Channels: Close slipped toward/below the midline, indicating pullback phase within a broader upcycle; further mean reversion likely unless bulls quickly reclaim 2.20–2.30.

5. Fibonacci analysis

• Major leg measured: 12/17 low ~0.855 to 12/26 high 3.38, range ≈ 2.525.
  • 38.2%: ~2.415
  • 50%: ~2.118
  • 61.8%: ~1.821
• Price closed near 1.93 (between 50% and 61.8% retracements). Intraday low pierced the 61.8% (~1.82) then closed above it—classic tag and bounce. In the next 24h, the 50% area (~2.12) should cap bounces; 61.8% (~1.82) should attract retests; a decisive break opens 1.65.

6. Anchored VWAP and session VWAP

• Session VWAP (12/26): Likely ~2.50–2.70 given heavy turnover above 2.4 early; close at 1.93 is decisively below VWAP—bearish for next open unless reclaimed.
• Anchored VWAP from 12/22 gap day: Likely in the 2.05–2.20 region given the bulk of high-volume trade above 2.0 on 12/22–12/26. This aligns with the Fib 50% and the H3 Camarilla pivot cluster, further strengthening the sell zone.

7. Pivot frameworks (for big-range days)

• Camarilla (based on 12/26 H/L/C = 3.38/1.765/1.93):
  • H3 ≈ 2.08; H4 ≈ 2.23 (breakout trigger)
  • L3 ≈ 1.78; L4 ≈ 1.63 (breakdown trigger)
• Trade logic: In a distribution bias, fading near H3/H4 is preferred; breakdowns below L3 can accelerate to L4. Our optimal short entry overlaps H3–Fib50–aVWAP confluence (~2.08–2.15). If price powers above H4 (2.23) and holds, the short thesis weakens.

8. Candlestick/price pattern diagnostics

• 12/26 daily candle: Large upper shadow (shooting star-like) after a gap-up, closing weak. On elevated volume, this is a textbook short-term reversal signal. Post-parabolic shooting stars commonly see 1–2 red/inside days or choppy drift.
• Intraday micro-structure: Failed VWAP reclaims, lower highs, and a capitulation wick to 1.85—then weak bounce. That profile suggests trapped longs above 2.20 and opportunistic sellers overhead.

9. Ichimoku lens (daily)

• Price remains above the Kumo (cloud) after the surge; Tenkan (fast) is rising and likely near ~1.70–1.85; Kijun (base) lags near ~1.10–1.20. Mean reversion toward Tenkan is common; Friday’s tag near 1.85 fits; a move to 1.65 would be an overshoot but is possible in high-volatility names.

10. Regression channel and Wyckoff read

• Regression channel from 12/19 start: Price has drooped below the channel midline; if not reclaimed quickly, lower channel tests follow (1.80s). Wyckoff: 12/26 resembles an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) on the intraday scale, consistent with a markdown phase intraday and potential continuation early next session.

11. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 12/19→12/22 impulse; Wave 2: 12/22→12/23 corrective; Wave 3: 12/23→12/24 thrust; 12/26 likely a Wave 4 complex correction intraday, with risk of a truncated Wave 5 unless buyers reclaim 2.23–2.30 quickly. Given overhead supply, a truncated 5 is more probable—favoring short-term weakness vs immediate new highs.

12. Relative context and risk factors

• Micro-cap space name: Borrow availability/fees and gap risk are high. Day-to-day moves heavily catalyst-driven. While a fresh positive headline could invalidate the short bias, absent new catalysts, the order flow suggests supply overhead dominates the next 24h.

13. Synthesis and 24-hour path expectation

• Base case (55–60%): Early bounce toward 2.05–2.15 meets sellers; rollover to 1.82–1.90; possible extension to 1.68–1.75 if momentum builds.
• Alternate squeeze (25–30%): Quick reclaim of 2.20–2.23 triggers a push to 2.30–2.45; likely fades unless volume accelerates and VWAP flips bullish.
• Weak open/continuation (15%): Direct sell into 1.82; brief bounce; slow bleed toward 1.65.

Trade plan

• Direction: Sell strength (short) into the 2.05–2.15 zone where Fib 50% (~2.12), Camarilla H3 (~2.08), and anchored VWAP confluence reside.
• Entry: 2.10 (optimal within the resistance band)
• Profit target: 1.68 (above 1.65 support to improve fill odds)
• Invalidation (not requested but critical): 2.32 stop area (above H4 2.23 and 12/22 close 2.29–2.30 supply), or use a closing basis above 2.30 if using end-of-day risk.
• Expected range next session: 1.78–2.10, with tails possible to 1.65 and 2.23.

Why short not long?

• Closing far below intraday VWAP and beneath heavy volume nodes indicates overhead supply.
• Shooting star after a gap-up historically favors further weakness or chop.
• Fib confluence suggests 2.10–2.20 should cap bounces; risk/reward is better fading that area than chasing a bounce from 1.90.
• Elevated ATR supports the feasibility of covering into 1.65–1.75 within 24h.

Risk notes

• Micro-cap, news-sensitive: A surprise headline can gap price above stops. Position size accordingly. If borrow is constrained, consider synthetic exposure or avoid forcing the trade.
• Liquidity/halts: Be mindful of volatility pauses. Use hard stops and don’t average up a loser in a squeeze-prone name.

Bottom line: Into the next 24h, the tape favors selling a relief pop toward 2.10, targeting a fade toward 1.68, with invalidation on a decisive reclaim/hold above ~2.23–2.32.