SLDP: Gap-and-Fade Sets Up a Sell-the-Rip Short Into 7.05 With 6.21 Magnet

Overview and context

• Ticker: SLDP (Solid Power, Inc.)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 6.75
• Session character (2025-11-06): Huge gap-up pre/early session to 8.7–8.8, followed by a decisive intraday selloff to close near lows around 6.75 on heavy volume (26.9M). That is a classic gap-and-fade/distribution day, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily candle.
• Bias for the next 24 hours: Short-term mean reversion lower, with likely retest of support zones 6.5 → 6.3 → 6.2.

Price structure and key levels

• Recent swing structure: Oct 30 swing low 5.33 → Nov 6 intraday swing high 8.77, then retrace to 6.7s by the close.
• Gaps: A very large upside gap remains partially unfilled (from Nov 4 close 5.615 to Nov 6 open ~8.08). Today’s low 6.72 did not fill the gap; gaps of this size are frequently revisited/filled over subsequent sessions.
• Horizontal S/R (from pivots and clustering):
  • Resistance: 7.05 (50% retrace of 5.33→8.77), 7.45 (38.2% retrace), 7.80–7.85 (R1 pivot area), 8.08 (today’s open), 8.31 (session high).
  • Support: 6.70–6.64 (61.8% retrace cluster), 6.51 (Oct 20 pivot), 6.30 (Nov 3 close/volume node), 6.21 (classic S1 pivot), 6.15 (Oct 24 close), 5.95–5.86 (October support), 5.68 (Oct 22 close), 5.33 (Oct 30 low).
• Floor pivots (calculated off 11/06 H/L/C = 8.315/6.72/6.75):
  • Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 7.2617
  • R1 = 2P − L = 7.8034; R2 = P + (H−L) = 8.8567; R3 ≈ 9.3984
  • S1 = 2P − H = 6.2084; S2 = P − (H−L) = 5.6667; S3 ≈ 4.6134
  • Note how S1 ≈ 6.21 aligns with the 20-DMA vicinity and a prominent prior demand zone; this is a high-probability magnet if 6.70 fails.
• Volume profile/market profile (today): Heavy transactions between 7.4 → 7.0 during the liquidation drive suggest a new volume node above price (overhead supply). Below 6.7 there’s a thinner volume pocket down into 6.3–6.2, which can accelerate price if 6.7 breaks.

Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Daily candle: Large red body with a significant upper wick after a gap-up open—gap-and-crap/gravestone-doji-like behavior on heavy volume. This is a classic near-term bearish reversal signal (distribution day) after a sharp advance.
• Intraday structure (hourly): Lower highs and lower lows from 10:00 onward; successive failed bounces, with late-day attempt to reclaim 7.0 fading again. This intraday trend is down and suggests rally-selling on next session’s open.

Momentum and trend indicators

• Moving averages (approximate):
  • 20-D SMA ≈ 6.10 (derived from last 20 closes). Price at 6.75 is ~+10.6% above the 20-D; reversion risk is elevated.
  • 50-D SMA is rising, estimated ~5.2–5.6 (given October’s regime shift), supportive on deeper dips but below near-term targets.
  • 200-D SMA likely in the low-to-mid 4s, well below; the primary trend is up vs 200-D, but the short-term is corrective.
  • Slope check: 20-D rising briskly; 10-D > 20-D > 50-D suggests the larger impulse is still up, but today’s candle often precedes a test of the 20-D.
• RSI (14-D, qualitative): Likely mid-60s into the open today, fading toward neutral by the close. On hourly, RSI dipped toward oversold during the liquidation but not a capitulative extreme, leaving room for another leg down after a reflex bounce.
• MACD (daily vs intraday):
  • Daily MACD had turned up with the rally; today’s sharp intraday reversal compresses histogram and risks a turn lower if follow-through selling appears tomorrow.
  • Hourly MACD is negative with momentum down since mid-session; bounces into 7.05–7.25 likely stall unless momentum flips.
• Stochastics (fast): Intraday remained sub-50 into the close; a brief early-morning pop likely pushes it up, but the default is to roll back under if resistance holds.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With 20-D ≈ 6.10, upper band expanded significantly on the gap; closing back toward the middle band favors mean-reversion continuation to the mid-band (≈6.10) and potentially lower band (≈5.5) on an overshoot.
• ATR (14-D, rough): Recent ranges: 0.6–1.6; today’s range ≈ 1.595. ATR trending higher signals elevated realized volatility; a 0.7–1.0 move in 24 hours is plausible. A 7.05 → 6.25 target aligns with ~0.8 move, within 1 ATR.
• Ichimoku (approximate): Tenkan (9) ≈ (highest high + lowest low over 9)/2 ≈ (8.77 + 5.33)/2 ≈ 7.05. Kijun (26) ≈ mid-5s to high-5s. Price closing below Tenkan signals pull toward Kijun and/or the flat levels around 6.2–6.3; Chikou remains above price action from earlier but may compress if continuation lower.

Fibonacci framework (swing 5.33 → 8.77)

• 38.2%: 7.455 (key resistance if any bounce strengthens)
• 50%: 7.05 (first sell zone; confluence with Tenkan and intraday VWAP region)
• 61.8%: 6.64 (tested today/tonight; a break here often targets 78.6%)
• 78.6%: ≈ 6.07 (near 20-D SMA and S1 proximity)
• Interpretation: Price now sits near the 61.8% retrace. A weak bounce into 50% (7.05) that fails would typically set a run back to 6.3–6.1 (between 61.8% and 78.6%), matching pivot S1 ≈ 6.21.

VWAP and anchored VWAP

• Session VWAP (approx): Likely around 7.1–7.2 given heavy volume during the mid-day liquidation band. Post-close price < VWAP indicates sellers in control. A retest/rejection of VWAP (≈7.1–7.2) is a high-probability short setup.
• Anchored VWAP from the Oct 6 breakout would sit around the mid-6s to low-7s; price oscillating below that anchored reference near-term is bearish until reclaimed.

Wyckoff read

• Gap-up to a buying climax (BC) intraday, then automatic reaction (AR) down the ranges, ending with signs of supply (SoS) dominating into the close. Today looks like a potential upthrust-after-distribution at the intraday scale. The next session often exhibits an early secondary test (bounce) that fails, followed by a drive to support (6.3–6.2).

Regression/z-score/mean reversion

• Price is >1 standard deviation above the 20-D mean even after the fade; the high was >3 SDs. Standard mean-reverting behavior calls for further pullback toward the mean (≈6.10) over 1–3 sessions. The next 24 hours likely cover a substantial portion of that move.

Classic pivots alignment (target confluence)

• Pivot S1 = 6.2084 aligns with: 20-D MA vicinity (≈6.10), 78.6% retrace (≈6.07), prior structural shelf (6.15–6.30). This confluence creates a strong magnet/target. It also provides a clean take-profit level for a tactical short.

Intraday microstructure and tape

• Today’s heavy selling into the close, followed by a modest after-hours uptick to ~7.0 that failed back to the high 6.7s, indicates sellers remain active. Tomorrow’s likely pattern: a small gap or early pop toward 6.95–7.15, sellers absorb near VWAP/Fib 50%, then a roll.

Scenario analysis for the next 24 hours

• Base case (≈60%): Early bounce to 6.95–7.20 (VWAP/50% Fib/Tenkan), rejection, then trend lower to 6.30–6.20 by the close; possible intraday overshoot to 6.10.
• Bull squeeze (≈25%): Strong reclaim of 7.25 and sustained trade above 7.45 (38.2% retrace) could target 7.80–7.85 (R1). This invalidates the short thesis in the very near term.
• Bear acceleration (≈15%): If 6.64 (61.8%) breaks early with momentum, quick air-pocket to 6.30 and test of S1 ≈ 6.21; if market-wide risk-off, tag 6.05–5.95 possible, though that’s more likely over 1–2 days than intraday.

Risk management, invalidation, and execution plan

• Trade idea: Short the reflex bounce into confluence 7.05 ± 0.10 (Fib 50%/Tenkan/VWAP zone). This optimizes risk-reward by selling strength into resistance.
• Invalidation/stop (tactical): 7.55–7.60 (above the 7.45 38.2% retrace and through intraday supply). If price accepts above 7.45 and holds, the path opens to 7.80–7.85, invalidating the short for the 24h window.
• Profit target: 6.21 (S1 pivot), where multiple supports converge and a first-touch bounce is likely. Secondary extension (if momentum is strong and market weak) could see 6.05–6.10; consider trailing for stretch but book core at 6.21.
• Position sizing: Volatility-adjusted (use ~1 ATR = 0.9). With an entry ~7.05 and stop ~7.58, risk ≈ 0.53; to S1 ≈ 6.21 reward ≈ 0.84; R:R ≈ 1:1.6. Scaling in from 6.95 to 7.15 improves fill odds.
• Optional tactics: If the market opens sub-6.70 and immediately breaks 6.64, consider a tactical chase with tighter stop above the breakdown bar high, targeting 6.30/6.21; otherwise, prefer selling a pop.

Indicator-by-indicator synthesis

• MAs: Short-term extended vs 20-D; corrective move toward mean favored.
• RSI/Stoch: Reset from overbought; intraday momentum negative; room to fall.
• MACD: Daily at risk of peaking; hourly bearish—supports selling rips.
• Bollinger: Expansion day; mean reversion toward middle band (≈6.10) expected.
• Ichimoku: Below Tenkan (≈7.05) invites pull to Kijun/flat levels 6.2–6.3.
• Fibonacci: Sitting at 61.8%; failed 50% test tomorrow is a sell; 78.6%/S1 is target.
• Pivots: S1 at 6.21 is the high-probability magnet.
• Volume/Price: Overhead supply created 7.0–7.5; thin pocket to 6.3 increases downside odds on a 6.7 break.

24-hour price prediction

• Expect a range roughly 6.10–7.45 with a bearish skew. Most likely path: early bounce into 7.05–7.20, then a fade to 6.30–6.20 by the end of the session. A decisive reclaim and hold above 7.45 negates this short-term bearish view and opens 7.80.

Bottom line

• This was a textbook gap-up exhaustion and distribution day on heavy volume. Confluence across pivots, VWAP, Fibonacci, Ichimoku, and Bollinger suggests a sell-the-rip setup into 7.05 with a high-probability magnet down at 6.21 over the next 24 hours.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Action: Sell (short) a bounce.
• Entry (limit): 7.05
• Take-profit: 6.21 (core), optional runner to 6.10 if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (stop): 7.58 (above 7.45/38.2% + buffer).
• Notes: If no bounce, consider patience; alternatively scale small at 6.90 with the same stop and target.

This is a tactical, short-term plan based on technicals; reassess if new fundamentals/catalysts emerge overnight.