SNAP at the 61.8% Line: Set for a Reflex Pop Toward 7.95—If 7.50 Holds

Important: This is not financial advice. Markets are risky and unpredictable. I cannot guarantee outcomes. For a 24-hour trade, consider your risk tolerance, position sizing, and use hard stops.

Step-by-step multi-tool analysis of SNAP (close 7.71)

1. Price action and structure

• Daily context (Jun → Oct): After a strong July run toward 10, SNAP cratered on 2025-08-06 (likely earnings-related) into the 7s, then based in early September (6.90–7.40) and rallied into late September highs (8.74 on 9/29). On 9/30, a heavy-volume selloff drove price back to 7.71; 10/01 printed a stabilization day with a 7.52–7.86 range, closing ~flat at 7.71.
• Market structure: The rally from 9/10 (7.05) to 9/29 (8.74) made higher highs/lows. The 9/30 washout broke the short-term uptrend (took out the 9/26 swing low 8.15 decisively). We are now in a corrective leg within a broader sideways-to-down medium-term trend.
• Intraday (hourly, 10/01): Open drive lower to 7.52, strong rebound to 7.86, lower highs into the close (~7.70). This reads as equilibrium forming post-selloff; sellers are still active on pops; buyers defend 7.50–7.60.

2. Support, resistance, and key levels

• Immediate supports: 7.60 intraday pivot cluster; 7.50 round/structure; 7.33–7.34 (9/5 and 9/12 closes); 7.20 node; 7.05 (9/10 swing low); 6.90 (9/2 low).
• Immediate resistances: 7.85–7.90 (50% retracement of 9/30 range and R1 pivot); 8.03–8.05 (R2 pivot/20D mean area); 8.10 (38.2% retrace of Sep swing); 8.22–8.33 supply shelf; 8.44; 8.53; 8.74.
• Fibonacci (swing 7.05 → 8.74): 38.2% = ~8.09, 50% = ~7.90, 61.8% = ~7.74. Current close 7.71 sits just under the 61.8% retrace—often a decision zone for a reflex bounce vs. breakdown.

3. Moving averages / mean reversion

• 20-day SMA ≈ 7.80 (est.). Price is slightly below, implying a likely mean-reversion magnet toward ~7.80–7.90 if 7.60 holds.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ 8.4–8.5; 200-day SMA (est.) ≳ 9.0. Price below both: medium-term trend remains down/sluggish; rallies may be sold before reaching those MAs.

4. Momentum oscillators

• 14-day RSI (est.) ≈ 57 pre-10/01 close when including the strong mid-Sep gains; on a shorter lookback (post 9/22), momentum rolled over. Net: not oversold by RSI; directional momentum cooled.
• Stochastic (9-day range, H=9.28, L=7.52, C=7.71): %K ≈ 11% → oversold within the recent 9-session range, supportive of a bounce attempt if support holds.

5. MACD / histogram

• Qualitative read: The 12/26 MACD likely rolled over after 9/29–9/30, histogram near/just below zero. This favors cautiousness on strength; short-term bearish momentum but ripe for mean reversion as selling pressure normalizes.

6. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• With 20D SMA ~7.80 and an elevated recent sigma, price is in the lower half of the band and recently pressed lower band on 9/30. Day 2 stabilization (10/01) often precedes a reflex toward the mid-band (~7.80) or slightly above, barring renewed heavy selling.

7. Ichimoku snapshot (daily)

• Tenkan (9-period midpoint) ≈ (9.28+7.52)/2 = 8.40; Kijun (26-period midpoint) ≈ (9.28+6.90)/2 = 8.09. Price (7.71) is below both → near-term bearish bias; Tenkan above Kijun signals prior up-impulse, now retracing. A reversion test toward Kijun (8.09) is possible if 7.50–7.60 holds.

8. Average True Range (ATR)

• ATR(14) daily estimated ~0.40–0.45 after the large ranges. Expect a 24-hour envelope roughly ±0.40 from the prior close absent new catalysts. That frames a plausible 7.30–8.10 tactical range.

9. Volume and participation

• 9/30 volume 266.8M shares (very heavy) on a large drop → distribution. 10/01 intraday saw constructive dip-buying but supply capped rallies. High participation creates tradable swings; we should respect levels and use limit orders.
• Volume profile: Thick nodes ~7.20–7.40 and 8.20–8.40; a lower liquidity pocket around ~7.60–7.80 makes that zone “slippery,” prone to quick moves toward either node.

10. Pivots for 10/02 (based on 10/01 H=7.86, L=7.52, C=7.71)

• Pivot P ≈ 7.697
• R1 ≈ 7.873; R2 ≈ 8.037
• S1 ≈ 7.533; S2 ≈ 7.357 These align with tactical plan: buy the dip near S1 cluster (7.53–7.58), take profits into R1/R2 (7.87–8.04).

11. Elliott-style context

• From 9/10 low (7.05) to 9/29 high (8.74) resembles a 5-wave advance. The 9/30–10/01 action fits an A–B–C corrective leg terminating near the 61.8% retrace (7.74), possibly concluding around 7.60–7.70. That supports a 1–2 day reflex bounce scenario before the next decision at ~8.0–8.1.

12. Pattern read

• Post-selloff equilibrium with lower highs (7.86 → 7.82) and firm bids 7.50–7.60 forms a short-term symmetrical coil within a broader pullback. Breaks can be sharp. Probability-weighting after a large down day: slight edge to a reflex up toward the 20D mean before sellers reassert.

13. VWAP / Anchored VWAP

• 10/01 session VWAP likely ~7.73–7.76; price closed slightly below → minor end-day weakness, but well within a neutral band. An anchored VWAP from 9/30 morning swing high (~8.45) likely sits near ~7.9–8.0; expect supply near that zone.

14. Scenario matrix (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Early probe lower into 7.53–7.60, holds support, then reflex to 7.87–7.95 (R1/mid-band).
• Bear extension (25%): Clean break below 7.50 triggers a slide toward 7.33–7.36 (S2 cluster/September shelf); bounce attempts fade.
• Strong rebound (20%): Immediate reclaim of 7.80 in the morning, squeeze through 7.95 to test 8.03–8.08 (R2/Kijun proximity), then stall below the 8.10–8.20 supply.

15. Risk management and trade construction (24h horizon)

• Optimal tactic is to fade an early flush into S1 with a tight stop and target the mean-reversion band, given: location at 61.8% retrace; post-liquidation stabilization; Stochastic oversold within 9-day range; strong, nearby pivot confluence (S1/P/R1).
• If the 7.50 shelf breaks decisively on volume, abort the long—downside air to ~7.33 is meaningful for a 24h trade.

Synthesis and call

• Despite medium-term downtrend and fresh distribution, the 24-hour setup favors a tactical long-on-dip into 7.53–7.60 with a target near 7.90–8.00. This exploits mean reversion to the 20D area and pivot R1/R2 while accepting that rallies near 8.0 are likely sold. Risk control is critical: a hard stop under 7.44 (below S1 breach and round level) keeps unfavorable skew contained.

Trade parameters (tactical, 24h)

• Direction: Buy-the-dip (countertrend scalp)
• Entry (limit): 7.58 (inside S1 cluster; may scale 7.53–7.62)
• Initial target: 7.95 (first supply band/50% retrace of the down leg; near R1)
• Stretch target: 8.03–8.05 (R2/20D mean zone) if momentum is strong
• Invalidation/stop guide: 7.44 (below 7.50 shelf). Risk ≈ 0.14; Reward ≈ 0.37 to 0.47; R:R ≈ 2.6–3.3

What would change my mind

• Bearish: Early heavy-volume break of 7.50 and failure to reclaim P (7.70). Then the better trade flips to selling a bounce into 7.60–7.65, targeting 7.33.
• Bullish: Quick reclaim of 7.80 off the open and hold above VWAP; then a momentum long breakout toward 8.03–8.10 is valid, but risk:reward less attractive from 7.80+.

Bottom line

• Favor a controlled, tactical long near 7.58 with a 24-hour profit target ~7.95. Respect a hard stop if 7.50 fails.