SNAP: Sell the Bounce into 8.05 — Pivot Rejection Likely, Target 7.48 in 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish-to-range with a sell-the-bounce setup favored.
• Expected intraday path (Mon): Early reflex bounce toward the daily pivot/Fib confluence near 8.00–8.10, then sellers regain control; downside probe toward 7.50–7.55. Probable close: 7.58–7.66.
• Optimal trade: Short on a fade into 8.05 (pivot zone and 61.8% retracement), target 7.48 (below S1 to improve fill probability), stop 8.35 (above R1/descending trendline). Risk/Reward ≈ 0.30/0.57 ≈ 1:1.9.

1. Price Action and Market Structure

• Regime: Since 10/03 (8.54 close), SNAP has produced a sequence of lower highs (8.54 → 8.52 → 8.43 → 8.38) and lower lows, culminating in 10/10’s wide-range bearish day closing near the lows at 7.78. This is classic short-term downtrend anatomy.
• Key Levels (spot):
  • Resistance: 8.05–8.10 (daily pivot ≈ 8.04 and 61.8% retracement from 9/30→10/03 swing), 8.30–8.35 (R1 ≈ 8.30, prior supply shelf and descending trendline), 8.50–8.55 (10/06 high and prior congestion), 8.70–8.75 (recent swing highs).
  • Support: 7.70–7.72 (9/30 & 10/01 closes; potential double-bottom neckline), 7.52–7.55 (S1 ≈ 7.52; 10/01 intraday low ~7.52), 7.40–7.42 (Aug cluster), 7.00 round number and Aug 25 close.
• Volume Context: 10/10’s selloff came on 78.5M shares, lower than prior distribution days (100M–200M) during September’s volatility. That suggests trend continuation but with some potential for reflex bounces (less panicked supply). Volume-by-price impression: HVNs around 8.2–8.4 and 7.2–7.3; current 7.7–7.9 sits in a low-volume node (LVN), which tends to accelerate moves toward the nearest HVN once directional control is established.

2. Trend and Moving Averages

• Short/Mid MAs:
  • 5-SMA ≈ 8.25; 10-SMA ≈ 8.18; 20-SMA ≈ 8.17 (approx). Price 7.78 is below all three, with negative slope—confirmation of bearish short-term trend.
  • 50-SMA (approx) in the 8.4–8.6 area; price is well below, reinforcing bearish bias.
• EMA Ribbon/Mean Reversion: With price below the 8–21 EMA cluster (≈ 8.15–8.25), rallies into this zone historically face supply. Expect sellers to defend the 8.05–8.30 band.

3. Momentum and Oscillators

• RSI(14) ≈ 43 (est.): Below 50 and pointing down, not yet oversold. This allows for further downside before a durable bounce. If we had sub-30 RSI, mean reversion would dominate; here momentum can still press lower.
• Stochastic: Likely in/near 20, signaling weak momentum and risk of trend continuation with only shallow bounces.
• MACD: Bearish cross with histogram negative since the lower-high series began; no bullish divergence evident on daily yet.
• ADX(14) (qualitative): Rising into low-20s suggests trend strength is building, but not extreme—consistent with a controlled grind lower rather than a capitulation yet.

4. Volatility and Range Tools

• ATR(14) ≈ 0.45–0.50. Expect a 0.45–0.55 daily range. From an 8.05 entry, a 1.2–1.4×ATR move to 7.48 is feasible intraday; likewise, a stop at 8.35 (~0.30 above) is within 0.6–0.7×ATR, a tactical fit.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA ± 1.5×ATR): Center ≈ 8.17; lower band ≈ 7.47; price near the lower band warns not to chase lows—prefer selling bounces into mean reversion zones, aligning with the plan.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 8.17; lower ≈ 7.6–7.7 (est.). Friday’s close hugged the lower band, supporting the expectation of a modest early bounce before sellers reassert.

5. Fibonacci and Pivots

• Recent swing (9/30 low 7.71 → 10/03 high 8.71; range = 1.00):
  • 61.8% retracement from high = 8.71 − 0.618 ≈ 8.09 (prime short level).
  • 50% = 8.21; 38.2% = 8.33. These align with resistance pockets and R1.
• Classic Floor Pivots (based on 10/10 H/L/C 8.555/7.77/7.78):
  • Pivot (P) ≈ 8.04
  • R1 ≈ 8.30; R2 ≈ 8.82
  • S1 ≈ 7.52; S2 ≈ 7.25 Confluence: P ≈ 8.04 ~ 61.8% level (8.09). S1 (7.52) matches the next downside magnet beneath the 7.70 shelf.

6. Ichimoku

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud overhead ~8.3–8.6. Chikou span trapped under price/cloud. This configuration is bearish; rallies into 8.1–8.35 are statistically likely to fail on first test.

7. Market Profile / Volume Profile

• LVN around 7.8–8.0 implies quick pushes through this pocket. If the bounce stalls near 8.05–8.10, the path of least resistance is a swift rotation down toward the 7.5 HVN. If 7.50 breaks on volume, vacuum extends to the 7.30 HVN.

8. Candles and Patterns

• 10/10: Wide-range bearish candle closing near lows (near-marubozu) at a prior support shelf. This is a bearish continuation signal absent a reversal trigger. There’s a tentative double-bottom potential at 7.71, but confirmation requires a strong reversal candle with volume—absent as of now.

9. OBV, CMF, MFI (qualitative read)

• OBV rolled over this week as down days accumulated; CMF/MFI likely negative given repeated closes near session lows and expanding downside volume earlier in the week. No accumulation signal yet.

10. Elliott Wave / Structure (tactical)

• The September rally (7.3 → 8.7+) appears corrective within a larger bear phase post-Aug gap-down. The current leg lower resembles a C-wave continuation targeting 7.50–7.30 before better dip-buyers appear.

11. Risk Management and Execution Plan

• Setup: Short the bounce into the P/Fib confluence.
• Entry: 8.05 limit (sell into strength). If price gaps beneath 7.70 and never tags 8.00, an alternative momentum entry is possible on a retest-and-fail of 7.70–7.75, but the specified optimal entry remains 8.05 given RR.
• Stop (not in fields, but critical): 8.35 (above R1/descending trendline/38.2% cluster at 8.33–8.35). This invalidates the immediate fade.
• Target: 7.48 (beneath S1 7.52 to increase fill probability). Secondary extension if momentum accelerates: 7.30 (HVN) but outside the single-target requirement.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to ~0.30 risk per share vs 0.57 reward (1.9R). Consider partials near 7.55–7.52 and run a trailer for 7.30 if tape weakens.

12. 24-Hour Price Path Projection

• High probability path: Open/early push to 7.98–8.10 → Sellers at pivot/61.8% (8.04–8.09) → drift lower mid-session → test 7.55–7.52 into afternoon → late day stabilize 7.58–7.66.
• Alt path (probability lower): Gap under 7.70; quick flush 7.55–7.45; then bounce to 7.75; still net-bearish close.
• Bull invalidation: Strong breadth plus reclaim/hold >8.35 on volume (closes above descending trendline and R1), which would shift bias to range-to-bullish and target 8.55–8.70. Low probability for the next session given current signals.

Conclusion

• With price below declining MAs, bearish momentum intact, and a high-confluence sell zone at 8.05–8.10 (pivot + 61.8% Fib) against a clear downside magnet at S1 (7.52), the optimal tactical play for the next 24 hours is to Sell (Short) a bounce into 8.05 with a target at 7.48.