Capitulation, Hammer, and a Magnet at 211: Setting Up for a Relief Rally in SNDK

Comprehensive multi-method technical review for SNDK (Sandisk Corporation)

Context and recent structure

• Regime shift: After a parabolic advance into 11/12 (H: 284.76), the stock reversed into a high-volume liquidation. The last two sessions (11/20–11/21) show capitulation and an attempted stabilization: 11/20 printed a massive range (254.6 → 192.62, C: 195.96) on the heaviest volume of the series; 11/21 set a lower intraday low (183.00) but closed higher at 200.27 on still-elevated volume, forming a hammer-like candle with a long lower shadow.
• Current price: 200.27. The tape suggests a potential short-term tradable bottom attempt (capitulation + hammer + small higher close) inside a broader corrective downtrend.

Price action and levels

• Key support: 183.00 (11/21 intraday low), 192.62 (11/20 low). These define the immediate demand zone (183–193).
• Immediate resistance: 205.50 (11/21 high), 209.5 (R1 pivot), 211–212 (Fib 38.2% of 256.98 → 183 leg), then 218.8 (R2 pivot) and 220 (50% retrace of the same leg). Heavy supply overhead at 245–255 and 267–275 from prior distribution.
• Candlestick context: 11/21’s long lower shadow after a heavy-volume decline is a classic potential “selling climax + automatic rally” setup. While the body is red (close < open), the structure is still hammer-like given a large lower tail and a close well above the low.

Volume and breadth

• Volume climax: 11/20 the highest of the series (26.6M). 11/21 remained very high (20.0M) but closed above prior close → OBV would tick up, indicating net accumulation on the day. This often precedes a 1–3 day relief rally even within broader downtrends.
• Volume profile: A thin area between ~198 and ~210 may permit a swift push to 209–212 before encountering heavier supply. The 245–255 zone is a prominent overhead shelf where sellers defended repeatedly.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Likely in the 27–33 zone (oversold). The combination of oversold RSI and a higher close after a range expansion day historically increases odds of a short-term mean-reversion bounce.
• Stochastics: Deep oversold and attempting to curl up; a cross from sub-20 would support a relief move.
• MACD: Bearish and below zero with a wide spread, but histogram deceleration is plausible if we print a green day Monday. That would support a 1–2 day countertrend rally.

Trend and moving averages

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~230, well above price → near-term trend remains down, and the mean is overhead (acts as magnet over multiple sessions, not necessarily in 24h).
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~170–180, still below price after the large prior run-up.
• 200-day SMA (approx): ~90–110, far below. Long-term trend still up due to the massive move, but near-term (sub-20D) momentum is bearish.
• Read-through: Price extended below the 20D and likely near/just above the lower Bollinger band → short-term reversion tendency favors a bounce towards 209–218 before larger MA resistance zones.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (approx): ~28–33. A 0.4–0.6 ATR intraday rebound would be 11–20 points, putting 211–220 within reach for a 24h target if buyers follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA near ~230. Lower band likely in the 170s–180s. Price tagged/pierced the lower band on 11/20–11/21 and reverted back inside, a typical short-term bullish signal.
• Keltner Channels: Price was outside/near the outer band; re-entry tends to produce snapbacks toward the EMA baseline.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price is well below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun likely clustered in the 225–240 area. In strong selloffs, Kijun-sen often acts as a “magnet” on relief rallies over several sessions; however, for the next 24h, the first objective is the Tenkan area or anchored VWAP resistances around 206–212.

Anchored VWAPs

• AVWAP from 11/20’s capitulation open/close likely sits near ~206–208 after Friday’s back-test. Expect resistance in the 206–212 zone where AVWAP, Fib 38.2% (211), and pivot R1 (209.5) cluster.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing leg 11/19 H 256.98 → 11/21 L 183.00:
  • 38.2%: 211.2 (prime 24h target)
  • 50%: 220.0
  • 61.8%: 228.8
• Larger swing 11/12 H 284.76 → 11/21 L 183.00:
  • 38.2%: 221.9
  • 50%: 233.9
  • 61.8%: 245.3
• Interpretation: For the next session, 211–212 is the most realistic magnet; 218–221 is stretch if momentum is strong.

Pivot points (classic, using 11/21 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 196.26
• R1 ≈ 209.52; R2 ≈ 218.76
• S1 ≈ 187.02; S2 ≈ 173.76
• Interpretation: With price at 200.27, the path of least resistance on an “inside-up” day is a tag of R1; a strong day can extend to R2.

Pattern diagnostics

• Sequence resembles: blow-off top → distribution → gap-and-extend breakdown → capitulation → hammer-like stabilization. Common next step: 1–3 session relief rally into first resistance confluence (R1/Fib 38.2/anchored VWAP), then reassessment.
• Risk: Failed bounce that re-loses 195–196 would open a quick retest of 192.6 and possibly 183.

Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Relief rally to 209–212 (R1 / Fib 38.2%).
• Bear case (≈25%): Early pop fades; loss of 196 leads to 192.6 test; if broken, 187 (S1) and 183 retest.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Strong squeeze through 212 toward 218–220 (R2/50% of the recent leg).

Trade plan (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Long for relief rally into clustered resistances.
• Optimal entry: on a small dip toward 199–200 (aligns with round-number support and just above pivot P = 196.3). Use a stop below 192.5 (or more conservative below 183) depending on risk tolerance.
• Profit-taking zone: 211–212 initial; scale if momentum persists to 218.
• R/R example: Entry 199.8, TP 212 (+12.2), SL 192.4 (−7.4) → ~1.6:1. Using a wide SL below 183 reduces stop-outs but lowers R/R.

Confluence summary (why a bounce is likely short-term)

• Capitulation volume + hammer-like candle
• Oversold oscillators (RSI/Stoch) with early positive divergence potential
• Re-entry from beneath lower volatility bands
• OBV uptick on a green close
• Multiple resistance confluences neatly define near-term upside magnets (209.5–212) and clear invalidation (sub-192/183)

Risks and invalidation

• If price fails to hold above ~196–197 after the open or swiftly undercuts 192.6, the bounce case weakens; a break of 183 invalidates the near-term bottom attempt and opens 173–175 (S2) next.

24-hour price expectation

• Likely range: 193–214, with a bias for a push toward 209–212. Expect elevated volatility (ATR ~30) and whipsaws.

Note: This is a tactical view based on chart/volume-only data. No guarantee of outcomes; manage risk tightly in this volatility regime.