SOFI: Hammered Higher — Buy the Dip for a Pivot-to-R2 Push Toward $30.70

Comprehensive multi-tool technical playbook for SOFI (next 24h)

1. Market snapshot and context

• Current price: $29.68 (Oct 31 close; latest print aligns with current feed)
• Regime: Strong multi-month uptrend from July lows ($18.4) to late-October highs ($31.98), followed by a healthy pullback and stabilization just under the $30 round number.
• Character: High-volume advance on Oct 27–29 (post-catalyst momentum), followed by two-session pullback-then-hammer. Momentum remains net positive, short-term mean-reverting.

2. Structure, trend, and price action

• Higher highs and higher lows since early October: 25.76 (Oct 1) → 26.19 (Oct 10) → 26.54 (Oct 17) → 27.19 (Oct 22) → 28.98/28.49 (Oct 30–31) while highs progressed to 31.98 (Oct 28). The rising swing structure remains intact.
• Consolidation box/flag: After the impulsive leg to 31.98, price is coiling between ~29.0 and ~30.7, i.e., a bull flag just below prior highs.
• Psychological levels: $30 is a magnet/inflection; $31–32 is supply; $28.5–29 area shows strong demand via long lower wicks.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 5D SMA ≈ 30.25 (29.68 < 30.25): short-term pullback from the spike; bearish tilt on very short-term momentum.
• 10D SMA ≈ 29.30 (29.68 > 29.30): near-term trend supportive; price reclaimed the 10D after testing it.
• 20D SMA ≈ 28.32 (29.68 > 28.32): medium-term uptrend intact; price rides above the 20D basis.
• 50D SMA (est.) ≈ 27.5–27.8 (29.68 > ~27.7): longer-term uptrend intact. Interpretation: Short-term dip within a broader bullish trend. Reclaiming/holding above 10D/20D supports buy-the-dip bias; 5D above price warns of nearby resistance near $30–30.3.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) (est.): Mid-to-high 50s/low 60s after the pullback from overbought; bullish but not stretched. Room to extend higher toward low 60s without triggering overbought.
• Stochastic (%K/%D): Likely recovered from a pullback toward mid-range; cross-up consistent with bounce off 50% Fib. This favors a push toward $30–30.7 over the next session.
• MACD (12,26,9): Above zero (trend-positive) with histogram contracting post-spike; potential for a fresh positive turn if price closes above ~$30.20–30.50. No major bearish divergence on daily; momentum pause, not reversal.

5. Volatility and envelopes

• ATR(14) (est.): ~1.6–1.8. Expect normal next-day range ≈ ±$1.7 from the open; aligns with reachable targets to R1/R2 pivots.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ≈ 28.32. Upper band est. ~31.9; lower ~24.7 (given recent volatility). Price bounced from above the mid-band; room to expand upward without tagging the upper band immediately. Interpretation: Volatility supportive of a $1.0–1.5 up-leg if buyers control the open. Bands are not pinching; trend continuation more likely than mean-reversion collapse.

6. Volume, OBV, and accumulation

• Volume spikes: Oct 27–29 saw 83M/183M/95M shares—clear institutional participation on the advance. Subsequent pullback happened on lower (but still elevated) volume versus the up days, consistent with digestion versus distribution.
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution (qualitative): Strong up-thrust on Oct 28, stabilization with a hammer-like session Oct 31 (long lower shadow). Net accumulation bias remains. Interpretation: Demand on up-move > supply on pullback; buyers likely defend sub-$29 dips.

7. Candlestick diagnostics

• Oct 30: Wide-range bearish candle closing near lows (shakeout down to ~28.98) after failing to hold >$30.4.
• Oct 31: Near-doji/hammer with long lower wick (low ~28.49, close ~29.68) that fully negated the open-drive sell and reclaimed the 38.2% Fib. Rejection of sub-$29 is bullish for a follow-through attempt toward/through $30. Signal: Bullish reversal/continuation bias into early next week; follow-through confirmation level ≈ $30.20–30.50.

8. Fibonacci mapping (swing Oct 1 low 25.76 → Oct 28 high 31.98)

• 23.6%: ~30.51
• 38.2%: ~29.60 (exact: 29.604)
• 50%: ~28.87
• 61.8%: ~28.14 Observations: Price tagged ~50% (28.87) on Oct 30 and reclaimed the 38.2% (29.60) by Oct 31 close—bullish. Next resistance confluence: 23.6% (~30.51) near R2 pivot (see below).

9. Gaps and levels

• Oct 27 gap from 29.01 → 30.00 was fully filled on Oct 30 (low ~28.98). Gap risk reduced; typical post-fill behavior is resumption along prior trend if demand holds.
• Key supports: 29.60 (Fib 38.2%), 29.34 (pivot P), 28.87 (Fib 50%), 28.50–28.60 (hammer low zone), 28.14 (Fib 61.8%).
• Key resistances: 30.00–30.20 (round + R1), 30.51 (Fib 23.6%), 30.71 (R2), 31.66–31.98 (recent high zone), 32.00 (psychological).

10. Pivot levels (calculated from Oct 31 H=29.86, L=28.49, C=29.68)

• Pivot P = (H+L+C)/3 = 29.343
• R1 = 30.196; S1 = 28.826
• R2 = 30.713; S2 = 27.973
• R3 = 31.566; S3 = 27.456 Interpretation: Current price ($29.68) > P (29.343). Baseline bullish intraday bias; bull targets align at R1 30.20 and R2 30.71, which coincide with the $30 round number and the 23.6% Fib band.

11. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is above the Kumo (trend supportive); Tenkan (9) ≈ high-low midpoint over 9 sessions, sitting near $29.8–30.0; Kijun (26) ≈ ~$28.3–28.6. Price above Kijun and oscillating around Tenkan—typical of a bullish continuation phase.
• Chikou span likely above price-action—validating trend. Interpretation: Bullish regime intact; pullbacks to Tenkan/Kijun are buyable while above cloud.

12. Regression channel and mean reversion

• A simple linear regression from Oct 1 shows an upward slope; current price sits slightly below the regression mean after the pullback—favorable location for long entries targeting the channel mid/upper.
• 20D z-score (approx.): (29.68 − 28.32)/1.8 ≈ +0.76. Not overextended; has room to push toward +1.2 to +1.5 z without stress ($30.5–31.0).

13. Rate of change and breadth

• 10D ROC ≈ (29.68/26.54) vs using Oct 17? On a cleaner rolling basis: vs Oct 20 close (28.68) ≈ +3.5%. Positive but not overheated.
• Breadth proxy via volume thrust suggests accumulation into strength (Oct 28) and orderly digestion thereafter.

14. Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• Impulsive wave likely peaked at 31.98 (wave 3), with corrective wave 4 retracing to 38.2–50% (achieved: 29.6–28.9 zone). A nascent wave 5 could be underway toward 32–33+. Within next 24h, early leg of wave 5 typically challenges prior near-term resistance (30.2–30.7).

15. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Bullish base case (60%): Early dip toward P (29.34–29.50) gets bought; push through $30 → test R1 (30.20) and likely tag R2 (30.71). Close in 30.2–30.8 range.
• Neutral (25%): Range-bound 29.3–30.2 around the pivot; indecisive close near 29.8–30.0.
• Bearish risk case (15%): Loss of 29.34 pivot and 29.00 handle invites retest of 28.87 (50% Fib) and possibly S1 (28.83). Only a decisive daily close <28.80 would threaten the uptrend and open 28.14 (61.8%).

16. Trade plan and risk controls

• Bias: Buy-the-dip within an intact uptrend; play for a pivot-to-R2 rotation.
• Entry: Stalk a limit near 29.45 (between the 38.2% Fib at 29.60 and pivot P at 29.34) to capture liquidity on an opening dip.
• Take-profit: 30.70 (near R2 and just below Fib 23.6% confluence at 30.51—gives room for a wick into 30.7 without demanding a breakout to 31+).
• Risk management (not an order here, but guidance): Stop-loss below 28.80 (under 50% Fib/S1 cluster). R:R ≈ (30.70−29.45)/(29.45−28.80) ≈ 1.25/0.65 ≈ 1.9.
• Invalidation: A strong close below 28.80 or sustained rejection under 29.00 with expanding volume would negate the immediate long and shift bias to a deeper pullback toward 28.14.

Bottom line: Multiple tools align for a tactical long—the 50% Fib rebound, reclaimed 38.2%, hammer-type candle, price > 10D/20D MAs, and pivot > P posture. Expect a try higher toward $30.2–30.7 within the next session, with $29.3–29.6 acting as the buy zone.