SOUN coiling under 16 with VWAP support: poised for a breakout run toward 16.4

Comprehensive multi-technique technical analysis for SOUN (SoundHound AI, Inc.) over the next 24 hours

1. What just happened (context and structure)

• Daily context: After weeks of base-building around 10–12, SOUN exploded higher with a massive breakaway gap on 2025-08-08 (12.75–14.25 intraday, close 13.55, volume ~206M). Today (2025-08-11) it followed through strongly: open 13.64, high 16.03, close 15.90, volume ~121M. This is classic gap-and-go momentum with broad participation.
• Intraday 8/11: Post-open impulse to 16.03, then multi-hour consolidation between roughly 15.5–15.95. Last hours held higher lows near 15.61–15.73 with repeated tests of 15.9–15.95, indicating absorption of supply into the close.
• Market structure: Strong markup phase, higher highs/higher lows from late July. No immediate overhead daily supply (new recent highs). Support layers now form at 15.7 (VWAP cluster), 15.5 (demand shelf), 14.7 (Fibo 23.6% retrace of 10.33→16.03), and 13.9 (Fibo 38.2%).

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• Price vs moving averages: Price sits well above short/intermediate MAs. The 8/10/20 EMAs (approx.) are rising and below price; the 50 SMA has turned up; price extension to fast EMAs is elevated but manageable after today’s consolidation.
• Slope and alignment: Fast > slow MA alignment implies a strong uptrend. Pullbacks to the 8–20 EMA zone tend to be buyable in momentum regimes.
• Donchian channels: New 20-day high printed today at 16.03 confirms breakout.

3. Volume, participation, and VWAP

• Two-session volume surge: 206M then 121M, multiples of the recent daily average, validates the breakout (no sign of a blow-off reversal intraday; closes near highs). On-balance volume (OBV) shows a steep upslope consistent with sustained accumulation.
• VWAP: Intraday VWAP today clustered ~15.7. Price oscillated around it during the afternoon and reclaimed it into the close, signaling dip buyers are active at/above VWAP. Expect 15.6–15.75 to act as first reaction support on a morning dip.

4. Momentum suite

• RSI (daily): Likely high-70s after today’s close—overbought, but in strong trends RSI can remain elevated (bullish “RSI band walk”). On hourly, RSI cooled from overbought to mid-60s during consolidation—constructive.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross above zero with an expanding histogram—healthy bullish impulse. On hourly, histogram compressed during the range, leaving room for a fresh push if 16.03 breaks.
• Stochastic: Overbought on daily, but embedded in trend. On intraday frames, resets have been shallow—another hallmark of momentum persistence.
• ADX: Trend strength likely >25–30 after back-to-back wide-range up days, indicating a trend with follow-through potential.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR expansion: 14-day ATR has meaningfully expanded; today’s true range (~2.41) sets the tone for a 1.4–2.0 typical next-session swing. Expect fast moves around key levels.
• Bollinger Bands: Bands have widened sharply with price riding the upper band (band walk). Median band sits well below, so mean reversion to the 20-day is unlikely in the next 24 hours unless there’s a sharp news-driven reversal.
• Keltner Channels: Price in/near the upper Keltner envelope—signals momentum dominance. As long as price holds above the mid-channel on dips, trend control remains with buyers.

6. Ichimoku view

• Price is far above the Kumo; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou is above price—textbook bullish. Tenkan (fast) is likely in the 14.6–15.0 region; shallow pullbacks to Tenkan typically find support in trend impulses.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10.33 to 16.03)

• Retracements from 16.03: 23.6% ≈ 14.69, 38.2% ≈ 13.85. These are deeper supports; not base-case for the next 24h unless a failed breakout.
• Extensions from the prior leg: Measured move of the 7/31–8/08 impulse (about 2.83) projects 13.55 + 2.83 ≈ 16.38—aligns with the next upside objective if 16.03 breaks. 1.272–1.618 extensions point to ~16.6–18.1 as stretch targets, with 16.4–16.8 the more probable near-term zone.

8. Pattern recognition and market microstructure

• Ascending triangle / bull flag intraday: Repeated resistance at ~15.95–16.03 with rising swing lows around 15.52→15.61→15.69. That implies coiled energy; a break above 16.03 could release a measured move of ~0.35–0.45 to 16.35–16.50 quickly, with potential spillover to 16.7 if volume accompanies.
• Wyckoff lens: Phase E markup with Sign of Strength (SOS) on 8/08 and a continuation SOS today. The late-day holds around 15.7–15.9 look like a Last Point of Support (LPS) ahead of continuation—bullish.
• Liquidity dynamics: 16.00 is a round-number liquidity magnet. A small liquidity sweep above 16.03 could occur; sustained acceptance above ~16.10 would likely trigger trend-following flows.

9. Support/resistance map (near-term)

• Immediate resistance: 16.03 (today’s HOD). Above that: 16.38–16.50 (measured move/Fibo confluence), then 16.8–17.0 (round + extension). Further out: 17.5, 18.1 (1.618 ext, stretch).
• Immediate support: 15.70 (VWAP cluster), 15.50 (intraday shelf). Deeper: 15.20 (prior reaction low), 14.70 (23.6% retrace), 13.85 (38.2% retrace) and 13.55 (8/08 close) as gap support.

10. Risk checks and alternative scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (probability ~60%): Early dip toward 15.60–15.70 gets bought; breakout through 16.03 leads to a push toward 16.35–16.50. If momentum persists, extension toward 16.7 is feasible before another consolidation.
• Range case (~30–35%): Choppy consolidation between 15.50 and 16.00 as the market digests the recent surge; multiple tests of 16 without decisive break. This favors buying dips to VWAP rather than chasing.
• Bear case (~5–10%): Failed breakout with a decisive loss of 15.50 leading to a fast test of 15.20. A strong risk-off tape would be required to threaten 14.70 (23.6% retrace). Unlikely absent a new catalyst.

11. Confluence summary (why the bias is long)

• Momentum breadth: Price near high-of-day into the close with heavy volume—no exhaustion signal. OBV uptrend confirms accumulation. ADX suggests strong trend.
• Structure: Intraday ascending triangle, higher lows compression under resistance. Daily breakout regime (Donchian highs) with no nearby overhead resistance beyond intraday high.
• Support quality: Reclaimed and held VWAP; clear demand near 15.6–15.7.
• Extension headroom: Measured move points to ~16.4; volatility supports a 3–5% follow-through within 24 hours if the breakout triggers.

12. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip or buy the breakout. To optimize risk/reward for the next 24 hours, the higher-probability fill is a VWAP pullback entry.
• Optimal entry (limit): 15.65 (near VWAP/afternoon demand zone). If not filled and price breaks out, breakout traders could pivot to a stop-entry above 16.06 (noted here as an alternate tactic).
• Profit target (TP): 16.40 (first measured-move/Fibo confluence, just above prior high to capture the breakout expansion). Stretch target 16.65–16.80 exists but is not the base TP for a 24h plan.
• Risk guide (informational): A logical protective stop would sit below 15.20 (below shelf), offering roughly 0.45 risk for ~0.75 reward to 16.40 (R≈1.7). Tighter intraday stops below ~15.45 are feasible for active management but carry higher stop-out risk.

13. 24-hour price path expectation

• Expected path: Brief liquidity dip to 15.60–15.70 → grind higher to 15.90–16.00 → breakout attempt over 16.03 → momentum pop toward 16.35–16.50. Consolidation likely above 16.10 if the breakout holds. Only a firm rejection back below 15.50 would negate the base case.

Decision: Buy (Long) on a controlled pullback to optimize entry, targeting 16.40 within the next 24 hours.