Multi-Layered Technical Analysis for Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) as of May 20, 2025

1. Context and Overview

• Current Price: $39.99
• Session High/Low: $40.70 / $37.14
• Recent Major Event: On May 6, the price gapped down massively from $63.65 to $46.75. Shortly after, another drop took the stock as low as the mid $30s. Recent trading is consolidating above $35, with notable increased volume on the downside moves.
• Relative Volume: Recent days have featured extraordinarily high volumes (e.g., 20M+ on May 7), indicative of panic selling and institutional repositioning.

2. Long-Term Trend Identification

• Monthly/Weekly Trend: Prior to early May, SRPT traded steadily in a $60–$120 channel. Post-gap, it is now in a pronounced downtrend.
• Major Support Levels: $36.50 (recent multi-session lows), then $34.10 (May 15 low).
• Major Resistance Levels: $40–$41.50 (current supply zone), $45, then $52 (pre-gap range).

3. Technical Indicators Analysis

a. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (9/20 EMA): Not plotted, but data suggests all short-term averages are sharply falling. Price rallies toward the 20-period average ($39–$42) are being sold.
• Long-Term Moving Average: Dramatically rolled over, with no bullish crossovers.

b. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Based on recent price action, RSI likely entered extreme oversold (<20) after the gap and is currently rebounding toward neutral (30–40 region). Slight relief bounces but not excessively bullish.

c. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• MACD likely massively negative post-gap; histogram may be showing easing downside momentum but still below zero. No bullish cross signal.

d. Volume Profile

• Absolutely massive spike in volume on the gap, successive high-volume days on both selloffs and attempted bounces (e.g., May 7, May 12–20). Suggests capitulation but also institutional shift—often this marks the start of a bottoming pattern, but not instant reversal.

4. Chart Patterns

• Gap Down / Breakdown Pattern (May 6): The catastrophic drop and gap lower is usually driven by fundamental news (not visible here but critical to acknowledge in real world).
• Bearish Flag Formation: Last 7 sessions ($35.5–$40) constitute a tight range after the sharp drop, hinting at a bear flag. Textbook technicals say probability favors another leg down after consolidation.
• Support Test: Multiple bounces from $35.5–$36.5, but rally attempts are weak and met with selling pressure near $40. Volume on down days exceeds volume on up days.

5. Short-Term Candlestick Analysis (Intraday)

• Afternoon of May 20 shows whipsaw price action: quick move from $38 up to $40.70, then faded below $40. This is consistent with short covering and weak-handed buyers—classic in breakdown retests.
• No reversal hammer or bullish engulfing visible. Latter bars slightly red-dominated.

6. Volatility Expressed by ATR (Average True Range)

• Severe increase in ATR post-gap; daily moves exceeding $3–$5 are now routine contrasted with pre-gap average moves of $2–$3. High volatility favors breakouts or further break-downs.

7. Fibonacci Retracements

• Using pre-gap high (~$64) and post-gap low ($35.27), the 23.6% retracement is around $41.45. The price is currently testing this region as resistance—classic place for relief rallies to fail in bear markets.

8. Sentiment & Tape Reading

• The tape has transitioned from full-off panic (May 6–7) to a reluctant, low-conviction bid. No major buyers are demonstrating sustained interest; every rally is sold off past week.

9. Option Flow & Short Interest (Qualitative: Not explicitly provided but inferable)

• Post-gap and on major downdrafts, options tend toward heavy put buying; short interest often spikes. In absence of fundamental turnaround, further price pressure likely.

10. Confluence and Synthesis

• All indicators—momentum, volume profile, moving averages, intraday action, and pattern recognition—strongly point to this as a potential bear flag and a setup for another drop. There is no technical indication of sustained bullish reversal.
• Best trades in breakdown markets happen on retests of breakdown areas ($39.50–$40.50), with stops above.

Conclusion

Probability for further downside is high. The stock is struggling at key resistance ($40–$41), with significant supply and no new buyers in sight. Expect a return to support ($36.50), and possibly a retest of $34.10 or lower if momentum accelerates.

BUY/SELL DECISION: SELL/SHORT

Optimal Entry & Exit Points

• Sell Near Resistance: Open a short at the optimal retest zone ($40.10)
• Cover at Support: Take profit near established support ($36.60)

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Summary Table:

Indicator/System	Signal
Trend (Weekly/Daily)	Strong Down
Moving Averages	Bearish
RSI	Neutral/Oversold
MACD	Deep Bearish
Volume Profile	Bearish
Candlestick/Pattern	Bearish Flag
Entry/Exit	Sell $40.10, Cover $36.60

Risk Management

• Use a stop-loss above $41.50 (mid-flag supply). Risk/reward is positive due to strong technical confluence.
• Downside could extend below $34 if flag resolves bearishly with volume increase.

Given the relentless downtrend, failed rallies, technical bear patterns, and supply at $40+, SRPT is best positioned as a short candidate at current resistance.