Step 1: Price Action & Trend Analysis

Daily Chart Breakdown

The SRPT chart displays an extraordinary sequence of events:

• From March to early June 2025, SRPT steadily trended in the $60–76 range.
• On June 16th, there was a sudden, catastrophic gap down from $36 (June 13) to $21, matched by monster volume. The next days continued lower, hitting a base near $17-$18.
• On July 17th, the price spiked, attempted recovery to $22.86 (likely on short covering or a news event), but immediately reversed to collapse further to as low as $12.81 (July 18 intraday) and currently sits at $13.32.

Volumes: Notice the immense surge (44 million shares on June 16; 76+ million on July 18), undoubtedly signaling forced liquidations, panic selling, and/or institutional exodus. Volatility is acutely elevated.

Intraday (July 21, 2025)

• Price opened at ~$12.81, quickly spiked to $13.95, but remains bound between $13.07 and $13.95—well below prior supports.
• Price is consolidating in the $13.10–$13.40 range on waning, but still very high, volume.

Interpretation: This is a devastated chart: The primary trend is sharply down. The few bounce attempts are aggressively sold; lower highs are consistent. The price is trying to stabilize, but rallies have failed.

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Step 2: Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 20-day SMA has cratered—now likely under $18; 50/100/200 SMA are all far above the price ($20–$40 area or higher)—price is deeply oversold and extended below all meaningful MAs.
• Price action is well under any medium/long-term resistance. MAs will act as strong resistance on any bounce.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

• After the breakdown, daily RSI likely printed sub-20 (extreme oversold). With several sideways days and failed bounces, RSI probably recovered only modestly to the 25–30 range—still heavily oversold but not showing any strong bullish divergence.

MACD

• The MACD histogram is deeply negative with only minor flattening, indicating momentum remains bearish.
• No classic bottoming divergence observed; value and signal lines remain well below zero.

Bollinger Bands

• Price is hugging or breaking below the lower band, indicating both extreme volatility and failure to attract aggressive bottom-picking bids.

Volume & Accumulation/Distribution

• OBV and A/D indicators are in steep decline since mid-June. Distribution is massive; there is no evidence of accumulation by strong hands yet.

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Step 3: Patterns & Price Structure

Gaps & Support/Resistance

• Unfilled gap down at ~$36→$21 and then again from $19→$13. These gaps are now likely to serve as stiff resistance on any reversal.
• Price found short-term intraday support at $13.00–$13.10 (today's low).
• Next resistance zone: $13.50–$13.95 (today's intraday highs and congestion), then round number $15.00 and $16.98/$17.00 (recent swing lows before the last collapse).
• Longer-term resistance: $18.00–$19.00 (breakdown level, failed bounce zone); $21–$22 (July 17 gap high).

Candlestick Structures

• Recent daily candles are long-legged doji/spinning tops with large ranges but closing near the lows, showing indecisive but persistent selling pressure.

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Step 4: Volatility & Tape Reading

• ATR (Average True Range) ballooned from $1–2/day in May to as high as $5–6/day recently—extreme, ongoing volatility.
• Tick-by-tick action (today) is characterized by spike highs quickly faded, suggesting day traders and shorts are controlling tape action, not longer-term buyers.

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Step 5: Sentiment & Market Context

• Catastrophic breakdowns like this in biotechs often signal either failed drug news, regulatory blow-ups, or solvency risks; markets respond with relentless selling and only brief reflex rallies.
• The market is not showing credible bottoming signals; institutional and retail traders are fleeing.
• While deep oversold readings sometimes yield short-term bounces, in this context, bounces are treatable as opportunities to sell/short rather than accumulate.

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Step 6: Advanced Techniques

Fibonacci Retracement

• The entire plunge from $22.86 (swing high on July 17th) to $12.81 (July 18th low) gives key retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: ~$15.32
  • 38.2%: ~$16.41
  • 50%: ~$17.83 These mark logical areas where any relief rally would stall.

Elliott Wave Perspective

• Recent price action appears to be in a classic 5th wave extension or potentially the initiation of a new major downtrend after a failed corrective rally. The absence of a clear base suggests the downtrend is unfinished.

Volume Profile

• From $12–$14.50, today's high volume hints at short-term support, but with supply overwhelming demand on every bounce, suggesting clamoring exits on any move up.

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Step 7: Combination & Synthesis

• Primary Trend: Down, with no sign of reversal.
• Volatility: Bracing; high danger for both bulls and bears, but trend-followers are favored.
• Momentum & Order Flow: Selling pressure unrelenting, upside immediately capped by supply from recent panic sellers.
• Support/Resistance: $13.00–$13.40 support (fragile); $13.95–$15.32 resistance.
• Catalyst Risk: Without new bullish catalyst, odds are for lower lows or sideways chop with bearish bias.

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Step 8: Probability & Trade Plan

Next 24 Hours: Odds favor a test/break of $13.00. Small bounces to $13.40–$13.60 or even $13.95 are likely to be met by aggressive selling. If $13.00 decisively breaks, next support is psychological at $12.00, then new lows.

Risk/Reward:

• Short setup is favored due to trend, tape, and absence of accumulation.
• Sell/short into weak rallies below $13.50 (preferably closer to $13.40 entry).
• Stop-loss recommended above $13.95 (today’s high) for strict risk management.
• Target zones: $12.00–$12.20 (for partial profit booking), potentially lower ($11.80/new lows) if panic resumes.

Conclusion: This is a short (Sell) candidate—trend, structure, and momentum all point lower. Only a strong upside reversal with real accumulation would alter the setup. Until then, use rallies as opportunities to sell.<br><br>SELL SRPT on bounces.