Detailed Technical Analysis of Stellantis N.V. (STLA) for 2025-05-23

Step 1: Price Action and Trend Analysis

Examining the daily chart, STLA has experienced significant volatility since early April. A key inflection occurred after a sharp selloff from around $11.30 (Mar 28) to a low near $8.53 (Apr 8), followed by an aggressive V-shaped recovery back to $10.96 (May 13). However, since peaking in mid-May, the stock reversed and retraced, reaching today’s price of $9.975. In the past several sessions, the price has consolidated between $9.83 and $10.02 with an evident bearish bias, punctuated by a strong intraday drop from $10.46 to $9.82, and multiple rebounds failing to reclaim higher ground.

The high volume days (e.g., Apr 9, Apr 14, Mar 27–Apr 9) coincide with major price gaps—evidence of institutional repositioning or panic selling, followed by aggressive mean reversion. Recent sessions show decreasing volume, suggesting waning momentum and a likely shift to range-bound trading.

Step 2: Support and Resistance Identification

• Major Resistance: $10.47 (recent intraday high, May 12), $10.96 (May 13), $11.79 (Mar 4)
• Immediate Resistance: $10.02–$10.05 (today’s failed breakout)
• Major Support: $9.82 (intraday low today), $9.42/$9.36 zone (Apr 17/28), $8.53 (Apr 8)
• Immediate Support: $9.83, $9.92

Bounces off $9.82 indicate that bears are encountering short-term buying. However, repeated failures at $10.02 suggest a seller-dominated lid.

Step 3: Moving Averages

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
  • 20-day SMA (approx.): $10.14 — price is now below this key dynamic support, a bearish sign.
  • 50-day SMA (approx.): $9.87 — acting as a nearby support, price is currently testing this.

The cross of the 20-day SMA below the 50-day average in late April marks a short-term trend reversal to the downside. Repeated rejection at the 20-day SMA further confirms bearishness.

Step 4: RSI and Stochastic Oscillator

• 14-day RSI (visually estimated, given data):

  • After peaking slightly above 70 (overbought) around May 12th, RSI likely retraced to mid-40s, indicating loss of bullish momentum but not a clear oversold scenario.
  • The failed attempt to retake $10.02 coupled with RSI below 50 points to prevailing weakness.

• Stochastic Oscillator (visual):

  • Fast stochastic is likely hovering near 20–30, just above oversold. Absence of a reversal signal suggests continued downside risk.

Step 5: Volume Profile & Order Flow Analysis

The highest recent volumes coincide with both panics and short-squeeze rallies. Today’s session (~10.5M) maintained average participation but with a clear transition from buying to selling early in the session (i.e., morning drop from $10.46 to $9.82) and subsequent lack of force in any bounce attempts. This pattern highlights sellers in control but without increasing intensity, i.e., a grind lower rather than waterfall selloff.

Step 6: Chart Patterns & Candlestick Signals

• Intraday (Hourly):
  • Sharp wick downwards from $10.46 to $9.82, but the closing price failed to recover substantively, suggesting weak demand. No engulfing or hammer patterns observable that might suggest reversal.
• Daily:
  • Price action resembles a flag/pennant breakdown post-V-recovery failure—generally bearish. Lower lows and lower highs since May 13.

Step 7: Fibonacci Retracement

Using the $10.96 (May 13 high) to $9.82 (today's intraday low):

• 38.2% retrace: ~$10.24
• 50% retrace: ~$10.39
• Price cannot retake even 38.2% level, an additional bearish cue.

Step 8: MACD (Estimate)

• MACD likely bearish with the fast line under the signal and both sloping downward, tracking the late-May downtrend.

Step 9: Bollinger Bands

• Price repeatedly hit/broke the lower band ($9.82–$9.92 today), staying outside band boundaries for several bars, indicating a strong trend instead of mean reversion.
• The band width is elevated, signaling higher volatility, usually associated with trend acceleration (currently down).

Step 10: Sentiment & Volatility Assessment

• The V-shaped rally faded fast, losing steam above $10.50, and a decisive break below $10 sets up a psychological barrier.
• Declining post-peak volume shows exhaustion, but buyers are too weak to force a reversal. General sentiment is defensive/speculative.
• ATR (Average True Range) for recent days is high, so wide stops are needed for risk management.

Step 11: Statistical Edge & Probabilities

• Directional bias: Down
• Immediate risk: Possible test of $9.82, then $9.60–$9.42 pocket.
• Upside risk: Any news/macro surprise could trigger a bear rally up to $10.24 or $10.47, but this is the less probable scenario by technicals alone.

Synthesis and Trade Plan

• The recent breakdown below $10 and persistent inability to retake resistance levels, combined with declining but still above-average volume, and bearish momentum oscillators, all support a short-side (Sell) bias for the next 24 hours.
• The optimal entry is a failed bounce into resistance, around $10.02–$10.05 (intraday high/today's pivot).
• Take profit target: $9.60 (previous support from late April, aligns with volume node, below which stop runs might accelerate).
• Stop loss: Above $10.15 (38.2% fib, 20-day SMA), optional for a risk-adjusted approach.

Conclusion

Sell/Short on failed bounce into $10.02 zone, target $9.60.

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Disclaimer: No trading advice is risk-free; always size your trades appropriately and consider liquidity, news, or after-hours announcements.