Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Tencent Holding Ltd. (TCEHY)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily Trend)

Looking at the price chart for the past four months, TCEHY has shown significant volatility. After touching a major low around $53.38 in early April, a swift recovery followed, peaking near $69.79 by mid-March. Since then, the stock illustrated a pattern of lower highs and oscillated between $64 and $66.80. The recent 30-day price action reveals a narrowing range market, with decreasing volatility and a slight downward bias. The current close ($64.60) is at the lower end of this consolidation range, after yesterday's rejection near $65.40.

2. Pattern Recognition

Double Top Formation

A double top near $69.79 (Mar 17/19) and a secondary one at $68.05-$68.22 (Mar 14/18) indicate clear resistance. The failure to break these levels led to a long-term ‘lower-high’ structure. This pattern often suggests weakness unless a breakout reversal is observed.

Support Levels

Major support is observed at $63.84–$64.00 (Mar 31 and Apr 2), with intraday supports at $64.26–$64.60 (last four sessions). Below that, firm support sits at the psychological $63.00 level.

3. Moving Averages

20 and 50-Day Moving Average

• 20MA: Rolling at ~$65.50, above current price
• 50MA: Around ~$65.80, above current price

The current price closing below both short- and medium-term moving averages is a sign of bearish pressure.

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Estimating from the recent close and price oscillation pattern, daily RSI would now be around 41–45, which is not yet oversold but signals moderate downward momentum. The declining RSI from peak values corroborates the micro downtrend.

5. Volume Analysis

There is lightening volume on recent advances with stronger volume on down days (April/May), indicating distribution rather than accumulation. Today’s partial session volume appears weaker than average, suggesting little conviction from buyers at these levels.

6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Without explicit MACD values but inferring from price action: The MACD would be in negative territory, below its signal line after the continued slip from the $66-$67 range, indicating ongoing bearish momentum.

7. Bollinger Bands

Price is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting either an imminent mean-reversion bounce or further breakdown if selling pressure increases. The fact that previous approaches to the band yielded weak rebounds highlights that support is not holding strongly.

8. Candlestick Analysis

The last few daily candles (from 6/12 to 6/18) are small-bodied with lower closes, forming a descending triangle-like structure (horizontal support with declining highs). This pattern is more likely to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend — currently down.

9. Fibonacci Retracement (Recent Recovery)

The price is hovering near the 50% retracement of the April–June rally ($53.38 to $69.79), which sits around $61.50–$63.60. The current action above this zone suggests it’s a must-hold area for bulls, but the inability to retake $65.50 increases the risk of a breakdown.

10. Short-Term (Hourly) Data

Recent hourly prints signal no buying strength. For the last two sessions, the price failed to climb above $64.80 and has made lower lows each hour. The lack of upward drive hints day traders are crowding the sell-side.

11. Market Sentiment (Price Action and Positioning)

• Price: Pressing towards short-term support without significant buying interest
• Volume: Lower, suggesting lack of commitment and possible pause before further downside
• Overhead resistance: Clearly defined near $65.50–$65.80
• Large downside gaps still unfilled in the $63 area

12. Volatility and Risk Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range) appears compressed now, but previous breakouts have resulted in $2–$3 day swings
• Typically, breakdowns from compressions lead to sharp moves, either way; odds favor downside break given multi-indicator bearishness

13. Confluence Zone & Probabilistic Analysis

• Multiple indicators (
  • Trend
  • Breakdown pattern
  • MA cross
  • RSI
  • Fading volume on rebounds
  • Intra-hour rejection) all point negative for the next 24 hours.

Prediction for Next 24 Hours

• Expect price to either press down quickly into $64.00–$63.85 zone, possibly testing $63.25–$63.28 if momentum picks up
• Low chance for sustained upside above $65.40–$65.80; if so, likely to stall and reverse

Final Recommendation

SELL/SHORT at current or minor bounce to maximize risk-reward profile. Bulls have not shown enough absorption, and with negative momentum prevailing, a test of lower supports imminently is likely. Place a stop above $65.40 (recent high), and target $63.30-$63.40 on downside.