TERN’s Breakaway Run: Buy-the-Dip Into Value for a Day-3 Push Toward 18.60

Step-by-step technical audit of TERN (next 24 hours)

1. Data intake and regime shift identification

• Daily tape: TERN closed 10/31 at 8.26, then exploded to 14.03 on 11/03 (+70% with ~34M shares) and to an intraday high of 18.74 on 11/04, closing at 17.43 with ~14.1M shares reported on the day snapshot. This is a clear regime shift (breakaway gap) with a new, much higher volatility and liquidity regime.
• Intraday 11/04 bars (selected): • 14:30–15:30 ET: gap/drive from 15.50 to 18.74 (close 18.255) on 6.29M shares (opening impulse).
  • 15:30–16:30: pullback to 17.47 on 3.32M; 16:30–18:30: further test to 16.90–17.24 on lighter vol; 18:30 bar 9.35M shares reclaim to 17.67; 20:30 bar 7.76M shares faded to 17.43.
• Conclusion: Day-2 continuation with heavy opening drive higher, then responsive selling, then balanced-to-slightly-weak close just under session VWAP.

2. Multi-timeframe trend context

• Long-term: From July ($4) to late Oct ($8.2) the stock trended up structurally (higher highs/lows).
• Breakout: 11/03 gapped above all recent resistance (upper 8s), initiating a markup phase typically labeled as a breakaway gap in price action taxonomy.
• Implication: When a small/mid-cap biotech enters a markup regime with volume expansion, the baseline until proven otherwise is trend continuation after consolidation, punctuated by sharp pullbacks.

3. Volatility and range analytics

• ATR expansion: Daily ranges blew out (11/03 range ≈ 3.50; 11/04 range ≈ 3.24). Expect aftershocks: day-3 often shows an inside or contraction day early, with late-session resolution.
• Expected intraday amplitude next session: 1.8–2.6 average range is realistic given the last two days’ realized volatility.

4. VWAP and intraday microstructure

• Approximate session VWAP 11/04 using typical price × volume across active bars ≈ 17.52.
• Last traded 17.43: closed slightly below VWAP (marginal negative microstructure into the bell), but within a tight band around the value area.
• Read: Balanced auction with slight seller control into the close; not a decisive distribution. If price reclaims and holds above ~17.55–17.70 early tomorrow, momentum buyers likely rotate it back toward 18.10–18.70.

5. Support and resistance map (confluence)

• Resistance zones:
  • R1: 17.50–17.70 (VWAP/0.618 retrace band, see Fib below).
  • R2: 18.10–18.34 (15:30 bar high to supply shelf from multiple failed pushes).
  • R3: 18.74 (day high/near-term pivot); above that, Fib extensions 19.6 (1.272) and 20.7 (1.618).
• Support zones:
  • S1: 17.10–17.20 (50% retrace of 11/04 range; intraday reaction area).
  • S2: 16.70–16.90 (38.2% retrace and low cluster).
  • S3: 15.50 (11/04 session low/open; loss of this opens risk towards the 11/03 close ~14.03, though a full gap-fill is a lower-likelihood day-3 event).
• Note the tight clustering of key levels around 17.1–17.7, creating a battleground likely to define the day-3 path.

6. Fibonacci retracements and extensions (11/04 low 15.50 → high 18.74)

• 38.2%: 16.74; 50%: 17.12; 61.8%: 17.50.
• Close at 17.43 sits just under 61.8%, showing sellers defended the golden pocket late, but buyers maintained price above the 50% pivot—net neutral with slight bullish bias if 17.10 holds on dips.
• Extensions above 18.74: 19.62 (1.272), 20.74 (1.618) as potential squeeze magnets on breakout continuity.

7. Classic pivots for next session (using H=18.74, L=15.50, C=17.43)

• Pivot P ≈ 17.22.
• R1 ≈ 18.95; R2 ≈ 20.46.
• S1 ≈ 15.71; S2 ≈ 13.98.
• Interpretation: Price is currently above pivot P; a reclaim/hold above ~17.22 early is constructive. R1 is above the prior high, so any sustained break of 18.74 could accelerate toward ~19.6–20.0.

8. Moving averages and extension analysis

• 20D/50D/200D MAs (approximate) are clustered in 7–8 handle from the pre-gap regime. Price is extremely extended versus all trend filters; that’s characteristic of breakaway moves but raises mean-reversion risk on weak tape.
• In strong momentum phases, pullbacks often stall near intraday VWAPs/anchored VWAPs rather than daily MAs; monitoring AVWAPs from 11/03 open/close and 11/04 open likely gives support in 16.8–17.6 band (consistent with observed S1/R1 zones).

9. Momentum/oscillator suite

• RSI/Stochastics: Very likely embedded overbought (>80) after two outsized up days. Overbought in trends is a feature, not a bug, but it does raise intraday whipsaw risk and favors buy-the-dip versus chase-the-break strategies.
• MACD/Histogram: Strong positive inflection consistent with a new impulse leg; no visible daily divergence given the recency of the move.
• ADX: Trend strength likely rising sharply (>25), aligning with a momentum continuation framework.

10. Bollinger Bands and band behavior

• Price is riding or just outside the upper band on the daily.
• Today’s close modestly below the session VWAP but far above the 20D mean supports a playbook of: early shakeout → reversion to value → potential trend resumption if buyers reassert above VWAP.

11. Candle and pattern read

• 11/03: wide-range bullish breakout candle on exceptional volume (classic breakaway).
• 11/04: long upper shadow from 18.74 but body closed well above the 50% of the day’s range, suggesting distribution was present but not dominant. Net: consolidation day with a high-and-tight flag shape forming on intraday frames.
• Day-3 tendencies after a breakaway + continuation day: common patterns are an inside day or a morning dip that is bought if the catalyst narrative remains intact (we infer strong interest from volume, without assuming specific news).

12. Auction/market profile lens

• The heaviest prints clustered around 17.4–17.6, creating a developing value area.
• D-shaped distribution with slight P-shape elements earlier (short covering on the open drive), then balancing.
• If overnight/premarket price is accepted above 17.6, expect a squeeze attempt toward 18.10–18.34 and potentially 18.74. Failure there likely rotates back into 17.1–17.3 value.

13. Risk mapping and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈55%): Balanced-to-slightly-bullish consolidation. Early dip tests 17.10–17.20; holds; reclaim of 17.55–17.70 triggers a rotation to 18.10–18.60.
• Bull extension (≈25%): Quick reclaim of 17.7 in premarket, push through 18.10; break 18.74 opens 19.6 then 20.2–20.7 extension.
• Bear shakeout (≈20%): Early break of 17.10 runs stops into 16.70–16.90; responsive buying stabilizes; failure to reclaim 17.20 risks a deeper probe to 15.50, but that’s a lower-probability day-3 outcome absent fresh negative flows.

14. Trade construction and levels

• Bias: Buy-the-dip (long) favored over chasing breakouts given overbought oscillators and VWAP close marginally below. Prefer entry on controlled pullback into support rather than at market.
• Entry: 17.05 (between 50% retrace 17.12 and prior reactive lows; offers favorable R:R while keeping position risk tight).
• Target: 18.60 (beneath prior high 18.74 to avoid liquidity vacuum near obvious resistance; aligns with R2 of intraday rotations).
• Stop (for risk planning; not part of output fields): ~16.55 (below 16.70–16.90 cluster), yielding roughly 1.55 reward for ~0.50 risk ≈ 3.1R.
• Validation triggers: Accept above 17.22 pivot and 17.52 VWAP band = go; failure to hold 17.00 on retest = caution; loss of 16.70 negates the setup intraday.

15. Synthesis and 24h forecast

• Momentum and volume structure remain bullish post-breakaway.
• Price sits in a key fib/VWAP battleground; holding 17.0–17.2 should draw in buyers for a re-test of 18s.
• Therefore, the optimal tactic is to buy a pullback into value (≈17.05) and aim for a measured push toward 18.60 within the next session, with an eye on 18.74 as a stretch if momentum accelerates.