TLRY’s Inside-Day Coil After a Breakout: Position for a 1.85–1.90 Re‑test in the Next 24 Hours

TLRY – Full-spectrum technical blueprint and 24h trading plan

1. What just happened (context and structure)

• Regime shift: TLRY staged a powerful momentum breakout on 2025-09-29, exploding from the 1.15–1.25 consolidation zone to a 1.85 close on the heaviest daily volume in months (373.8M). The next session (2025-09-30) printed an inside day (high 1.82 < prior 1.86; low 1.62 > prior 1.34) with a doji-like open=close near 1.73, on still-elevated volume (160.9M). That’s classic consolidation after a range expansion day.
• Intraday (hourly) profile on 9/30: Early weakness to 1.62, recovery to 1.81, then a controlled fade closing near 1.67–1.73. A lot of volume transacted 1.70–1.75, creating a volume node (support in the near term). Current price: 1.73.

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe)

• Market structure (daily): Higher high/higher low progression from early September (~1.10–1.20 base) to a fresh high at 1.86. A bull structure remains intact while price holds above 1.60–1.62.
• Moving averages (daily; approximations): • 5-SMA ≈ 1.43–1.48 and turning up sharply. • 10–20 SMAs rising from ~1.25 and ~1.20 areas; price is well above them (strongly bullish regime). • 50-SMA likely near ~1.05–1.10; price is extended above it (momentum-dominant phase).
• Ichimoku (daily; conceptual): Price is well above a rising Kumo; Tenkan (> Kijun) and both are below spot, indicating trend strength and support layering around the mid-1.20s to 1.40s. Bullish configuration with space to swing.

3. Momentum and breadth

• RSI(14) daily: Elevated but cooling from an overbought spike on 9/29; likely near the mid/upper-60s. That’s constructive after a blow-off day—allows momentum to reset without breaking trend.
• Stochastic (daily): Rolled off overbought, now cycling mid-zone—a typical bull-flag momentum reset.
• MACD (daily): Histograms positive and widening after the surge; signal cross occurred earlier in September. Momentum regime remains positive with room for another push if the inside day breaks topside.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Expanded materially with the breakout. Expect ±0.18–0.25 daily swings near-term; that supports active trading and swift moves through intraday levels.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Bands expanded; price pulled back from riding the upper band to near the +1σ/+2σ zone. In strong trends, price often consolidates near the upper band before continuation; the inside day supports that read.

5. Volume analytics and VWAPs

• Breakout quality: 9/29 volume 373.8M, 9/30 still very high at 160.9M—this is institutional/algorithmic attention, not a weak pop.
• Intraday VWAP (9/30): By inspection of hourly flows, VWAP clustered roughly ~1.72–1.74. Price oscillated around it late session; reclaiming and holding above ~1.74 would be a near-term bull tell. Dips to 1.68–1.71 found buyers repeatedly.
• Volume-at-price node: 1.70–1.75 zone has thick participation; expect initial demand there. Another demand shelf shows near 1.60–1.62 (day’s low + 50% retrace).

6. Key levels (confluence)

• Resistance: 1.81–1.86 (intraday high and prior day high cluster). Above that: 1.90–1.95 (round + measured push), then psychological 2.00.
• Support: 1.70–1.74 (VWAP/volume node), 1.66–1.67 (38.2% Fib), 1.60–1.62 (50% Fib and session low), and deeper 1.54–1.55 (61.8% Fib).

7. Fibonacci mapping (from 9/29 H/L: 1.86/1.34; range 0.52)

• 38.2%: 1.86 − 0.199 ≈ 1.661 (intraday defended region)
• 50%: 1.86 − 0.260 = 1.60 (session low neighborhood and round number)
• 61.8%: 1.86 − 0.321 ≈ 1.539 (deeper support if volatility spikes) Confluence: 1.66–1.67 and 1.60–1.62 are the most tactical levels for dip-bids.

8. Pattern recognition

• Inside day doji after trend day: Often a “rest” day that precedes continuation in the direction of the impulse, provided the prior day’s high area breaks. The 1.81–1.86 band is the trigger zone.
• Bull flag/ascending consolidation on intraday frames: Pullbacks are being bought near VWAP; lower highs intraday but without distribution volume—suggests absorption rather than rejection.

9. Scenario tree (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Early whipsaw within 1.66–1.74, buyers defend 1.68–1.71, then a push toward 1.80–1.86. A marginal breakout to 1.88–1.90 is feasible if volume accelerates post-1.82.
• Bear alt (≈30%): Liquidity sweep into 1.60–1.62, quick shakeout under 1.66, then responsive buying pulls back toward 1.72–1.76 by the close (net neutral day).
• Adverse tail (≈10%): Full risk-off flush toward 1.54–1.56 (61.8% Fib) before stabilizing; probability lower given current demand footprint but must be respected if broader market weakens.

10. Risk and reward framing for trade selection

• Long setup A (buy-the-dip): Limit 1.70 near VWAP/volume node; stop 1.59 (below 50% Fib and under day’s low buffer); target 1.88–1.90 (prior high break and round number). R/R ≈ (0.18–0.20) / 0.11 = 1.6–1.8R within 24h; favorable if liquidity persists.
• Long setup B (breakout): Momentum buy above 1.82 with confirmation; stop 1.72; target 1.95–2.00. Higher win rate after confirmation but smaller R if chase.
• Short countertrend: Only attractive on failed reclaims below 1.66 with heavy supply; risk of being steamrolled by trend and high participation. Not preferred given current structure.

11. Indicator-by-indicator synthesis

• Moving averages: Strongly bullish (price > 5/10/20/50-day SMAs). Supports buy-the-dip bias.
• RSI/MACD/Stoch: Momentum reset without structural damage—bullish continuation propensity.
• Bollinger/ATR: Expanded bands and high ATR enable quick retests of high; also justify tight risk controls.
• VWAP/Volume profile: Buyers active 1.68–1.74; anchored demand from breakout day likely sits ~1.69–1.72. Holding above that keeps bulls in control.
• Fibonacci: 38.2%/50% have already been tested and respected; repeated support suggests higher low formation.
• Candles/patterns: Inside day doji = balanced; break direction matters. Trend context favors upside.
• Ichimoku: Bull regime intact with layered support beneath; trend-following systems will favor dips.
• Elliott-style read (heuristic): Impulsive leg (potential wave-3) on 9/29, wave-4 type pause on 9/30, scope for a wave-5 marginal high attempt toward 1.90–2.00.

12. Execution notes and risk controls

• Slippage plan: Use limit orders around 1.70; if liquidity is thin at open, let price come to you. If premarket gaps above 1.82, switch to breakout plan B rather than chasing mid-range.
• Invalidation: A decisive close <1.60 would put the breakout at risk and opens a path to 1.54; that’s where the long thesis weakens for the 24h window.
• Liquidity watch: Momentum requires volume; if volume collapses, reduce expectations and widen time horizon for targets.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence (trend, volume, VWAP support, inside-day consolidation) tilts bullish. Expect chop early, with a constructive push toward 1.85–1.90 if 1.81–1.82 breaks. Best risk-adjusted entry is a dip toward 1.70 with a tight invalidation below 1.59.