Tilray’s 0.786 Fib Rebound: Position for a VWAP Reclaim Toward R1

Executive summary

• Ticker: TLRY (Tilray Brands)
• Current price: 1.72
• Bias next 24 hours: Tactical bounce favored after deep intraday retracement into high-volume support (1.67–1.72), within a broader uptrend since early September. Expect choppy recovery toward 1.86–1.92, with risk of one more liquidity sweep to 1.64–1.67 before reversing.

Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (daily): Uptrend intact since early September bottom near 1.09–1.12, with successive higher lows into early October. Large impulsive legs: 9/29 gap/drive to 1.85, consolidation 1.58–1.72, 10/9 expansion to 2.32 high then 2.10 close. Today (10/10) pulled back hard to 1.72—deep but still above prior value (1.58–1.62) and well above the late-August base (1.10–1.25).
• Intermediate (2–4 hour): Momentum cooled. Price rejected 2.00–2.10 supply, then stair-stepped lower with lower highs, stabilizing 1.71–1.75. Structure suggests a completed A-B-C corrective leg with C terminating near 0.786–0.886 retracement cluster of the 10/3–10/9 swing.
• Intraday (hourly and below): Distribution day with heavy morning sell drive, mid-day balance 1.74–1.78, late-day fade to 1.68–1.72. Into the close/late print, sellers exhausted near 1.68–1.70 where prior demand emerged.

Volume, liquidity, and VWAP

• Volume: 10/9 had extreme volume (~303M) on the spike; 10/10 still elevated (~147M), typical post-spike digestion. High participation increases odds of two-way trade and sharp mean-reversion pops.
• Intraday VWAP (10/10): Estimated ~1.78–1.80. Price closed below VWAP; a VWAP reclaim next session is a common reversal tell. Expect resistance on first test; successful reclaim opens path to 1.86–1.92.
• Volume profile: Visible high-volume nodes around 1.60–1.62 (late Sep/early Oct value) and a developing node 1.72–1.78 from today’s session. This creates a demand shelf 1.67–1.72 and a low-volume pocket toward 1.86–1.92 that can be traversed quickly on momentum.

Support and resistance map

• Supports: 1.67 (0.886 Fib and today’s late low), 1.61–1.62 (S1 pivot and prior value), 1.50–1.51 (S2 pivot/late Sep acceptance).
• Resistances: 1.82 (daily pivot ~1.817), 1.90–1.92 (R1 ~1.923; prior intraday supply), 2.00 gap-fill magnet, 2.05–2.10 (prior close/supply), 2.32 (swing high).

Fibonacci framework (last impulse 10/3 low to 10/9 high)

• Swing: L = 1.59 (10/3) to H = 2.32 (10/9), range = 0.73.
• Key retracements: 0.382 ≈ 2.04, 0.5 ≈ 1.96, 0.618 ≈ 1.87, 0.786 ≈ 1.75, 0.886 ≈ 1.67. Today’s low cluster 1.67–1.75 aligns precisely with 0.786–0.886 support, a high-probability reversal zone. Bounce targets: 1.87 (0.618), 1.96 (0.5), then 2.04 (0.382).

Classical pivots (from 10/10 session)

• PP ≈ 1.817; S1 ≈ 1.613; R1 ≈ 1.923; S2 ≈ 1.507; R2 ≈ 2.127. Current price is below PP and above S1; statistically, retests of PP and R1 are common if S1 holds.

Moving averages and trend gauges

• Fast EMA(8) ≈ 1.80–1.84 (est.): price slightly below—near-term corrective tone.
• EMA(21) ≈ 1.60–1.65 (est.): price above—intermediate uptrend intact.
• SMA(50) ≈ 1.25–1.35 (est.): strong higher-time-frame bullish bias.
• Read: Short-term dip within a larger uptrend, favorable for buy-the-dip with defined risk.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14, daily): Likely cooled from overbought (>70 on 10/9) to mid-50s/low-60s—healthy reset without breaking trend. On intraday frames, RSI printed oversold (<30) during the sell drive and diverged positively into the close (price made marginal new low while RSI stabilized), a common precursor to bounces.
• Stochastic (14,3,3): Intraday bullish cross from oversold zone supports a tactical rebound toward the daily pivot/R1.
• MACD (daily): MACD > 0 with contracting histogram—momentum decelerating, but no confirmed bearish crossover. On 1–2h frames, a bullish cross is setting up if price reclaims 1.80.

Volatility indicators

• ATR(14, daily): Expanded materially (approx 0.18–0.22 to 0.30+) post-spike; volatility expansion typically precedes consolidation then continuation. Bollinger Bands widened markedly; price moved from upper band (10/9) toward mid/lower band area today—mean-reversion bounce is probable.
• Keltner Channels: Price pressed lower channel intraday; reversion to midline (~1.82–1.85 est.) fits the tactical long thesis.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price well above cloud (cloud top likely 1.30–1.40)—primary trend bullish.
• Tenkan (conversion) above Kijun (base) but narrowing; potential Tenkan dip toward Kijun near 1.65–1.70 offers dynamic support. Chikou span clear of price—no structural overhang.

Candlestick/price action

• 10/9: Wide-range up day with long upper wick—exhaustion signal at 2.30s.
• 10/10: Bearish engulfing of 10/9’s body with close near session lows—short-term pressure, but location is key: it terminated into the 0.786–0.886 Fib cluster and S1 vicinity, a place where failed breakdowns frequently spark reflex rallies.
• Intraday sequence today: Opening drive down, midday balance, late flush to 1.68, then seller fatigue—setup for a next-session squeeze toward 1.86–1.92 if early lows hold.

Flow and mean reversion

• Gap logic: There is an unfilled overhead gap area from the 10/10 open to ~2.00. Markets often attempt partial gap fills after heavy down days, especially when closing near the lower third of the range into a strong prior uptrend. A partial fill to R1 (1.92) is the high-odds first target.
• Mean reversion stats: After a daily -15% to -20% decline into rising 20–50 day averages, a 1-day bounce of 6–12% is common in high-beta tickers. From 1.69–1.72, a 10% rebound measures to ~1.86–1.89; a stretch move tags ~1.92.

Risk management and trade plan

• Entry zone (buy): 1.67–1.70 (ideally a limit near 1.69 at the 0.786/0.886 confluence and late-day prints). If opening strength skips the dip, a secondary entry on VWAP reclaim/pullback near 1.78–1.80 is viable but lower R:R.
• Stop (discipline): 1.61 (beneath S1 and the 1.60–1.62 volume shelf). Invalidation below 1.60 opens path to 1.51 (S2), where the thesis changes.
• Targets: T1 1.86–1.87 (0.618 Fib / VWAP zone), T2 1.92 (R1/pocket top), optional stretch T3 1.99–2.02 (gap-fill/round number). For the single take-profit required here, 1.92 aligns with the most probable first resistance and offers attractive R:R.
• R:R calculation: Risk ~0.08 (1.69 to 1.61). Reward to 1.92 = 0.23. R multiple ≈ 2.9x.

Scenarios and probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Early probe to 1.67–1.70, buyers defend, VWAP reclaim, push to 1.86–1.92; fade into close near 1.85–1.90.
• Bear case (25%): Early sell continuation breaks 1.67; quick test of 1.61–1.62; weak bounce caps under 1.78; close 1.63–1.70.
• Bull stretch (20%): Strong open drives over PP (1.82) quickly, momentum squeeze tags 1.95–2.02 gap-fill zone.

Confluence checklist for a tactical long

• 0.786–0.886 Fib cluster support: Yes (1.75/1.67).
• S1 pivot nearby: Yes (1.61–1.62 buffer below entry).
• Prior value shelf below: Yes (1.60–1.62).
• Larger trend higher: Yes (above 21/50-day averages and daily cloud).
• Momentum reset with potential bullish cross: Yes (intraday Stoch/MACD setting up).
• Clear upside magnet: Yes (VWAP/PP/R1 at 1.78/1.82/1.92 and gap-fill to ~2.00).

Expected path and timing

• Expect chop in premarket/early session; liquidity sweep risk to 1.67–1.69 then reversal. If price holds above 1.69 for 30–60 minutes and reclaims VWAP, momentum likely carries to 1.86–1.92 by mid- to late-session.

Bottom line

• Within a larger bullish structure, today’s deep pullback terminated into a high-probability support cluster. A tactical long offers favorable asymmetric payoff with clear invalidation. The first major resistance sits at 1.90–1.92; that is the optimal near-term take-profit.