Tilray Brands (TLRY) Technical Review: Persisting Downtrend Signals Further Weakness

Technical Analysis of Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY)

Time Frame: December 2024 - April 2025

1. Trend Analysis:

   • Long-term Downtrend: Reviewing TLRY's historical price data from December 2024 to April 2025, there is a clear long-term downtrend. Initially, the price hovered around $1.36 in late December 2024 but has since eroded, hitting lows of $0.44 by late April 2025.
   • Intermediate Price Behavior: The trend from early 2025 shows consistent lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish price action. Notably, the price drop accelerated from February onwards with little recovery, especially during late February and March when the price slid from approximately $0.95 to $0.74.

2. Volume Analysis:

   • Volume Spikes: Increases in trading volume often coincide with downward price momentum—e.g., a significant spike at the start of February when the price significantly fell. Notably, March and April exhibited elevated volumes during price declines, confirming strong sell-side pressure.

3. Support & Resistance Levels:

   • Resistance Levels: Critical short-term resistance appears near $0.65 - $0.7, previously acting as support in March. The stock struggled to maintain levels above $0.7.
   • Support Levels: Current major support is around $0.44 - $0.45, coinciding with recent lows that acted as a floor several times throughout April.

4. Moving Averages:

   • Short-term MAs (e.g., 20-day SMA): These have consistently stayed above the closing price, reaffirming bearish conditions.
   • Long-term MAs (50 or 100-day): Further solidifying the downtrend, the long-term moving averages stayed well above both short and current prices, without indication of a golden cross that might suggest a reversal.

5. Momentum Oscillators:

   • RSI Analysis: Regularly below the 30 level over the past few months, suggesting the stock is frequently in oversold territory, though this hasn't led to significant trend reversals—implying sustained bearish momentum.
   • MACD: The MACD line remains below the signal line and zero line over this period, confirming the strength of the bearish trend.

6. Candlestick Patterns:

   • Recent sessions reveal bearish candlestick setups with frequent long upper wicks and some hammer formations at lows, indicative of continued market pessimism despite minor bounce attempts.

7. Fibonacci Retracement:

   • Using a high near $1.2 and recent lows around $0.44, key retracement levels show resistance confluence near $0.65 (38.2% level), aligning with noted resistance, reducing the chance of near-term recovery beyond $0.7 without a significant catalyst.

Conclusion:

Given the current technical indicators, including a consistent downtrend reinforced by bearish moving averages, high sell-volume, and failed rebounds at key resistance levels, the outlook remains negative. The current market setup suggests further potential downside pressure.