TPR: Coiling Under the 20-Day — Buy the Dip for a Push Toward 104

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish with an early dip risk, then grind higher toward 103.2–104.0.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 101.1–101.3 (limit). Target 103.7–104.4. Invalidation if sustained break <100.0.

1. Price action and structure

• Regime shift: After the Aug 14 gap-down (high-volume shock), TPR has carved out a short-term sequence of higher lows and higher highs: 95.69 → 97.92 → 98.39 → 98.47 → 100.70 → 100.98 → 102.61. This is a constructive base-building phase within a larger gap-overhang.
• Today’s session (Aug 28): RTH printed a higher high (102.69) and higher low (101.07) vs. Aug 27, closing near the high (102.61). That close in the top decile of the day’s range is a demand signal.
• After-hours microstructure: A swift shakeout to ~101.01, then rebound prints to 102.00, implying liquidity swept just below RTH low/gap zone, likely setting up a tighter stop pocket for dip-buys tomorrow.

2. Supports, resistances, and gaps

• Key support stack:
  • 100.98 (Aug 27 close) and 101.07 (Aug 28 RTH low): tiny RTH gap remained unfilled by mere $0.09; after-hours traded to ~101.01, effectively testing/filling. Expect first-touch support near 101–101.1.
  • 100.70 (Aug 26 close) and the round 100 level: psychological and recent pivot.
  • 98.40–98.90 shelf (Aug 20–25 closes): prior balance area.
• Overhead resistance:
  • 102.5–102.7: 38.2% retracement of the Aug 14 shock range (95.69 → 113.53). Current close sits right at this fib node.
  • 103.4–104.6: prior pivot cluster (Jul 18 close 103.42) + 20-day mean ~104.3 + 50% retrace 104.6. Expect supply here on first test.
  • 106.7: 61.8% retrace and heavy overhead from early Aug.
• Open gap (Aug 14): Massive gap from 113.53 to 95.95 creates an overhang; gap-fill attempts commonly stair-step through fib nodes (38.2 → 50 → 61.8). We are currently attacking the first node; acceptance above 102.7 would target the 104.5–106.7 band.

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20SMA (approx): ~104.29. Price (102.61) is below the 20SMA but approaching from beneath, a classic mean-reversion magnet. Expect the 20SMA to act as first serious supply on approach.
• 50SMA (approx): rising and near ~100–101, providing a supportive floor after the post-gap basing.
• 200SMA (approx): in the mid-80s (trend remains secularly up vs that long-term mean). The stack (price ≳ 50SMA ≪ 20SMA) indicates short-term rebound within a medium-term corrective structure.
• Linear regression channel (10–15 sessions): upward slope; today’s close sits in the upper half, consistent with a near-term positive drift.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (est.): ~43.2, up from sub-40 readings post-gap. This is a “rising from bearish” configuration; crossing 50 on an up-day would confirm momentum rotation.
• Stochastics(14): ~39% (%K via Donchian scale of the last 14 bars: (102.61−95.69)/(113.53−95.69) ≈ 39%). Plenty of room before overbought.
• MACD(12,26,9): Histogram likely turning positive after an extended negative stretch; a recent bullish cross is probable given the multi-day ascent since Aug 19–22. Momentum shift favors upside follow-through into resistance.
• CCI(20): Likely near +50 to +75 (approx), indicative of building positive momentum but not stretched.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) (est.): ~3.5–4.0 post-shock, trending down as the range compresses. Today’s RTH range was ~1.62, below ATR—compression often precedes a directional expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~20SMA ≈ 104.3; lower band estimated near mid-90s; price is below mid-band but climbing toward it. A tag of the mid-band is statistically likely within 1–2 sessions given the slope of shorter-term momentum.
• Keltner Channel (20,2*ATR): Middle line near 20EMA (~103.5–103.8). Price is pushing from the lower/middle zone toward the midline—another mean-reversion tailwind.

6. Volume, breadth, and money flow

• Volume: Aug 26 spike to 15.8M marks a likely accumulation/buy-the-bad-news day; subsequent sessions on lighter volume with price advancing = constructive (up on less supply, no aggressive selling reloads).
• OBV/Accumulation-Distribution: Given closes near highs and green candles, both should be climbing modestly, confirming accumulation.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Today’s close near session highs implies a positive CMF contribution, supportive of dips being bought.
• Volume profile (Aug 14 → today): High-volume nodes at ~98.5–100 and ~101.5; we closed just above the 101.5 node, suggesting initial support on backtests.

7. Intraday analytics (Aug 28)

• Classic pivots for tomorrow (derived from H/L/C 102.69/101.07/102.61):
  • P = 102.125
  • R1/S1 = 103.175 / 101.56
  • R2/S2 = 103.74 / 100.51
  • R3/S3 = 104.79 / 99.95
• Expectation: Early test of S1 (101.56) or a liquidity probe just below (to 101.1–101.3) before a push toward P then R1/R2. R3 aligns with the 104.7–104.8 confluence near the 20SMA/50% retrace—ambitious but reachable if the tape is strong.
• VWAP (session, est.): ~101.9–102.1; closing above/returning above VWAP on pullbacks supports the long bias.

8. Advanced techniques and confluences

• Anchored VWAP from Aug 14 event: Estimated around the low 102s after subsequent heavy-volume sessions near 100–101; we are oscillating around/just above it. Regaining and holding this AVWAP reinforces the post-shock repair process.
• Fibonacci roadmap (Aug 14 low 95.69 → pre-shock high 113.53):
  • 38.2% = 102.51 (just reclaimed/contested)
  • 50% = 104.61 (first larger target)
  • 61.8% = 106.70 (secondary objective beyond 24h)
• Donchian channels (20): Current at ~39% of the 20-day range—a mid-range push with room to run before upper-band tests.
• Market profile read: Value migrating up from the 98.5–100 composite toward 101.5–102; acceptance above 102.7 likely shifts value toward 103.5–104.
• Elliott/fractal view: The Aug 14 gap-down completed an impulsive A-wave lower; current advance looks like B-wave retrace targeting 50–61.8% before a decision. In the next 24h, the B-wave can feasibly extend toward the 50% node (~104.6).
• Harmonics: The post-gap upswing lacks an immediate bearish harmonic completion until ~104.5–106.7; that increases odds of travel toward those zones before sizeable resistance re-engages.

9. Risk management, scenarios, and timing

• Base case (60%): Early dip to 101.1–101.6, then trend-day-up to 103.2–103.9; settle 103.4–104.0.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong open >102.7; shallow pullbacks; tag R2 103.74 and stretch toward 104.5–104.8 (20SMA/50% fib/ R3 confluence).
• Bear surprise (15%): Break and hold below 100.9; value slides to 100.5 (S2) and tests 100.0–99.9 (S3/round); buyers defend 99.6–100.1. Invalidation for long swing below ~99.5 on volume.
• Catalyst sensitivity: The Aug 26 volume spike suggests an information reset; absent fresh negative headlines, mean-reversion toward the 20SMA is favored.

10. Synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: Multiple independent tools align bullishly for a 1–2 day mean-reversion pop: higher-lows structure, improving momentum (RSI/MACD), price reclaiming/hovering near anchored VWAP, and strong confluence targets at 103.7–104.6 (pivots + 20SMA + 50% retrace).
• Execution: Enter on a liquidity sweep into 101.1–101.3 (fills likely given after-hours print to ~101.0 and tomorrow’s S1 ~101.56). If the market gaps over 102.7 and holds, a momentum add/alternate entry above 102.8 is viable, but the primary plan seeks the dip.
• Risk: If 100.9 fails on heavy volume, odds flip to a full gap-fill toward 100.5/100.0. A prudent stop for the plan would sit ~99.6 (below S3 and the 100 round), yielding R:R ≈ 2:1 to 103.7 and ~2.2:1 to 104.4.

24-hour price path forecast

• Probable path: 101.2 ±0.2 early → reclaim 102.1 VWAP → push through 102.7 (38.2%) → stall near 103.2–103.4 → afternoon attempt at 103.7 (R2). Stretch case tags 104.4–104.8.

Decision: Buy the dip for a mean-reversion push toward the 20-day area. Target the 103.7–104.4 zone within 24 hours; reassess if price loses 100.9 on volume.