Tesla, Inc. Price Analysis Powered by AI

TSLA Breakdown Alert: Head-and-Shoulders Signals Loom as Bulls Lose Momentum

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of TSLA as of 2025-07-29

1. Macro Trend Observation (Daily, 4-month View)

Long-term Price Evolution: From April 2025 lows ($221.86) to late July highs ($363+), TSLA experienced a strong rally, but with substantial corrections, notably post-June and most recently in late July.
Current Price Context: $320.64 is roughly 12% below the recent July high and 37% above the April swing low, highlighting both strength (uptrend from spring) and meaningful volatility.

2. Candlestick Patterns & Price Action

Last Three Days: July 24 ($305.30 close after big down day), July 25-28 ($316-325 closes with high volume and intraday volatility). July 29 shows intraday range $318.25-$326.25, closing near open, indicating indecision after bounce attempts.
Recent Candles: Long upper wicks (selling into strength) and lower closes suggest supply above $325. Short-term, the reversal at $329-332 failed.

3. Volume Analysis

Volume Surge: Notably large volume ($156M+) on recent down days (July 24-25) => possible capitulation, but price failed to recover above $325 meaningfully, showing that dip was bought but lacked follow-through.
July 29 Activity: Mid-day volume pattered off, supporting a holding pattern, not accumulation.

4. Support & Resistance Zone Mapping

Resistance: $326-332 (recent rejection zone), $338-342 (mid-July highs), $350+ (major early summer highs).
Support: $317-$320 (bounce level, tested repeatedly), $310 (pre-gap base, July 24).

5. Moving Averages (Estimated from Data)

50-day MA (approx $323-325): Price oscillating just below, indicating short-term bearish bias.
200-day MA (~$298-305): Well above longer-term base, but in the intermediate range. Market remains above LT support, but loss of momentum above $325 is cautionary.

6. Momentum Indicators (Inferred)

RSI (14-day, estimated): After sell-off and limited bounce, RSI likely retraced from overbought (>70) in early/mid July to low 50s or upper 40s, indicating neutral to mild bearish.
Stochastics: Likely in midrange, no clear bottoming.
MACD: Bearish crossover probable mid-July, with histogram below zero, suggesting momentum down.

7. Trendlines & Chart Patterns

Ascending Channel (April–July): Broken lower on July 24. Failed attempt to regain channel.
Bearish Reversal Pattern: Multiple failed tests above $325-332, inability to close above after bounce from $305-310 base.
Potential Head-and-Shoulders: Peaks at $363 (left), $350 (head), $332 (right shoulder) – neckline at $317-$320.

8. Intraday/Short-Term Analysis (July 29, Hourly)

Volatility Contraction: Post-selloff, hourly price moves narrowed (supporting short-term buyers & options writers), but spike risks persist given recent volatility surges.
Rejection Patterns: Each pop above $325 met with sustained selling pressure; closing on or below $320.

9. Options & Sentiment (External Context)

Implied Volatility: Stays high, as seen from price swings >$10/day. Options likely expensive, supporting mean-reversion setups and short gamma moves intraday.
Market Narrative: After major runup, exhaustion and new flow awaited – earnings or macro catalysts will be needed for renewed rally.

10. Synthesis: Risk-Reward and Decision Factors

Bearish Triggers:
- Failure to reclaim >$332 after breakdown.
- Heavy volume selling into bounces, upper wicks above $325.
- Trendline break and possible head-and-shoulders pattern.
- Momentum signals turning negative.
- Macroeconomic environment and sector rotation out of high-beta tech names (such as TSLA) in recent weeks.
Short-term Bounce Risks:
- Support at $317-320; possible intraday whipsawing.
- Market could attempt another rebound, but overhead supply likely suppresses upside.
Edge: Risk-reward favored to the downside, targeting next major support around $310. Stop could be placed above $326-328, in line with recent highs and moving averages.

24-hour Price Prediction

Expect further pressure below $320, with intraday retests of $317-$315 likely. If $317 fails, expect $310 next. Upside risk capped at $326.
Trading Plan: Short at $320.6-321, with target at $310. Tight stop at $326.5.

Final Decision

SELL (Short Position): Current technical and sentiment analyses indicate a bearish bias for the next 24 hours. Target $310, stop-loss above $326.5.