Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – Extremely Detailed 24-hour Technical Trading Analysis

1. Trend and Price Action Analysis

Daily Trend Overview

• Long Term Trend: The stock has recently experienced a strong selloff from the $360s to the low $280s in early June, followed by an impressive V-shaped recovery culminating in today’s surge to $309.58.
• Short-term Momentum: The latest session shows an explosive rise from ~$285 in the morning to over $309 by the close, with intraday highs brushing against $323.27 (20:00 UTC). This is an exceptionally strong bullish impulse.
• Recent Candlestick Patterns:
  • The latest daily candle is a large green bar breaking above several previous resistance levels. It follows a bullish engulfing pattern after a period of high volatility selloff and base building around $285.
  • The candle two days ago showed a strong bounce ($285.95 open, $309.82 high, $308.58 close), with a close near the day's high—indicative of dominant buyer control.

Volume & Volatility

• Volume for today was high (over 135M), supporting this price move as a genuine breakout rather than a low-liquidity anomaly.
• Volatility has been escalating since the $325 breakdown on June 4, leading to massive daily ranges and a capitulation day down to $284.70 (June 5), which now looks like a critical inflection point (capitulation bottom).

2. Technical Indicators Analysis

Moving Averages

• 5 EMA/20 EMA: The explosive move today lifts the price far above short-term moving averages (not shown directly, but can be estimated). After languishing below the 20-day EMA, the strong close at $309.58 puts TSLA well above these averages. This is a signal of trend reversal and short-term bullishness.
• 50/200 SMA: The fast rally implies TSLA is likely retaking its 50-SMA (est. around ~$305-$310) and approaching the 200-SMA (est. $318-$320). Breaking/piercing these levels sets up potentially more upside if confirmed.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• Estimating RSI from the price/volume action:
  • After extreme weakness below $285, the sudden, high-volume buying likely pushes RSI into the 65–72 zone—very close to overbought but not exhausted yet. This suggests more room for buyers in the very short term but warning of potential overextension soon.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

• The massive price reversal causes a bullish crossover: The MACD line would have crossed over the signal line after days of bearish momentum, confirming a new bullish trend.

3. Chart Patterns & Structure

Double/Triple Bottom Structure:

• Watching the action around $285 from June 5–7, a clear capitulation bottom formed, with a rapid reversal and strong follow-through—classic of a trend change (bear-to-bull). This double bottom supports a likely medium-term upward bias.

Breakaway Gap / Momentum Gap

• On June 9, the strong gap up and 8%+ move from open indicates a breakaway gap, often a signal for continued trending and possibly another leg higher before profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracement Zones

• April Top ($365) → June Low ($284.70):
  • 23.6%: ~$304.38
  • 38.2%: ~$314.43
  • 50%: ~$324.85
  • 61.8%: ~$335.27
• TSLA has just surged through the 23.6% retracement and is approaching 38.2%. A close/strong move above $314–$315 would signal an attempt at the 50% retrace zone ($324.85), possibly as high as $335 if momentum persists.

VWAP / Intraday Price Structure

• Today’s move shows strong adherence to an upward-sloping intraday VWAP, with every dip being bought. No signs of significant intraday selling pressure or exhaustion were seen in the data; late-day momentum is sustained.

4. Order Flow & Liquidity Clusters

• High volume nodes (from volume profile) suggest strong demand absorption between $285–$295 and $300–$305.
• Today’s surge through $300–$308 happened on above-average volume, indicating large buyers entering quickly. Selling clusters should not appear until higher Fibo / resistance regions ($315–$325).

5. Market Sentiment & Catalysts

• Such an explosive recovery frequently marks a reversal of sentiment, likely fueled by short covering, institutional repositioning, or short-term bullish fundamentals.
• No sign from chart context that this is a mere dead cat bounce; instead, structure and volume suggest a real trend reversal.

6. Risk Management & Trade Plan

• Downside Risks:
  • If this move is a bull trap, swift rejection at the $314–$324 resistance could bring a retest down to $300 or even $292; stop-loss management is crucial.
• Upside Potential:
  • A sustained move through $315 can quickly reach $325, and acceleration above that zone could run into $335 (61.8% Fibo).

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Combine All Insights:

• The confluence of multi-day double bottom, high-volume spike, break above pivotal moving averages, bullish engulfing candles, and rapid reclamation of lost ground forms a textbook setup for short-term follow-through higher. Immediate targets are the $315–$325 range. Only above $325 would the move risk being overbought, but momentum could easily target $335 as the next resistance.

7. Trading Decision and Execution

• The optimal entry rests just above the current close to avoid buying into a minor pullback/whipsaw, as strong closes often lead to brief consolidation. An entry at $310.00 offers a slight discount and catch for any low-volume reversion overnight.
• Target profit region: $324.50 (just shy of 50% Fibo retracement and prior breakdown resistance, allowing for front-running of this key level).
• Stop loss suggested: Below $298 (prior session's resistance) for risk control, not shown in output per instructions.

Conclusion:

• Direction: Strong Buy (Long Position)
• Open Price: $310.00
• Target/Take-Profit: $324.50

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