Detailed Technical Analysis of TSSI (TSS, Inc.)

1. Review of Recent Price Action and Volume

• Current Price: $13.96 (as of latest tick 2025-05-19T21:00)
• Short-Term High/Low: Recent high around $16.40 on 2025-05-16 and low near $6.24 on 2025-04-04
• Notable Volume Spike: Gigantic volume on 2025-05-16 (~28.8M shares) accompanying surge from low $9 area to $16.39. Prior to this, daily volumes rarely exceeded 2M shares. Price settled at $15.44 that day before retracing towards $13.96.

2. Chart Pattern Analysis

• V-Shaped Reversal: From early April’s low ($6.24) to the mid-May explosion ($16.40), TSSI experienced an aggressive V-shaped recovery, with momentum sharply accelerating since the $7/$8 levels. The rapid and high-volume spike strongly suggests a news catalyst or event-driven rally.
• Gap Up and Exhaustion: 2025-05-16 delivered a gap up and parabolic candle, commonly identified as a blow-off/exhaustion move. The subsequent candles retraced sharply, losing more than $2 post-peak, suggesting initial profit-taking and volatility.

3. Trend & Momentum Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • Short-term (5-20 days): Prices are above ascending short-term averages (est. EMA10/EMA20 near $13.50 and $11.80 based on recent action).
  • Medium/Long-term: The 50-day MA (approximate, given the dataset) is closer to $9.5-$10, well below spot price, indicating a significant breakout move.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • With the magnitude of the advance, the RSI is expected to be near or above 70 (overbought territory). The retracement from $16.40 toward $14 and below would begin to relieve extreme overbought, but still remains elevated, signaling caution about new long entries.
• MACD: Likely showing a pronounced bullish cross early in May, with histogram peaking and potentially rolling over after extreme move.

4. Support and Resistance Analysis

• Resistance Levels:
  • $16.40 (recent high and likely psychological as well as technical resistance)
  • $15.30-$15.40 (post-gap lower close and former support now flipped to resistance)
• Support Levels:
  • $13.10-$13.25 (observed as intraday low on 2025-05-19, plus pre-surge resistance zone)
  • $12.70-$12.80 (another area of support pre-breakout)
  • Significant gap below these levels could result in rapid move to $11.50 or $10.60.

5. Volume & Volatility Analysis

• Volume Profile:
  • The extreme volume spike on 2025-05-16 typically marks a climax top or at least a local top after exhaustive moves. Since then, volume has receded daily while prices are failing to fully reclaim the $15+ area, confirming selling pressure.
• ATR (Average True Range):
  • Recent daily ranges exceeded $1, much higher than pre-surge atr (~$0.3 to $0.5). This means volatility remains extremely elevated.

6. Candlestick/Price Structure

• Today’s Candle (05-19):
  • Opened near $14.22, surged to $15.28 intraday, but reversed lower and closed at $13.96. This upper-wick doji/reversal candle on high relative volume suggests sellers are active toward $15+.
• Intraday Structure:
  • Each rally attempt above $14.5-$15 is met with selling, while dips to $13.35-$13.50 are bought, but with less conviction (smaller wicks on lows vs. deeper wicks on the highs).

7. Order Book/Structural Technicals

• Gap Risk: The rally created a large gap between $9-$12, which underpin support but also introduce risk of rapid downside if breakdown occurs.
• Fibonacci Retracements: Drawing from $6.24 to $16.40:
  • 38.2%: ~$12.68
  • 50%: ~$11.32
  • 61.8%: ~$9.96
  • The price is currently holding above the 38.2% retrace, suggesting early buyers are defending this zone, but downside towards 50% is notable if $13.10 fails.

8. Sentiment & Event Risk

• The event/catalyst that drove the spike may be priced in; the rally’s exhaustion and failed retests of highs point to profit-taking setting in.

9. Summary / Synthesis of All Tools

• Momentum has stalled after a historic surge on record volume, triggering profit-taking.
• Sellers are dominant on tests of $14.5-$15.3; buyers are less aggressive, defending $13.10-$13.50, but volume on rebounds is declining.
• Indicators (RSI, MACD) warn of overbought, while price action points to possible topping behavior.
• Gap below $13.00 increases risk for sharp corrective move.
• Best risk/reward at this moment is shorting on bounces toward $14.20-$14.40 (overhead supply zone), targeting retracement to the $12.80-$13.10 zone.

10. Prediction for Next 12-24 Hours

• Expect continued profit-taking as the parabolic rally digests and overbought technicals cool off.
• Retest of $13.10 is highly probable, and if this fails, fast move towards $12.80 support is likely.
• To the upside, $14.30-$14.50 should cap advances short-term.

Final Call: Sell

• Open short position on a bounce to the $14.20-$14.30 area; target $12.90 as a first objective.
• Stop above $14.60 for risk management.

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Technical techniques used:

• Chart pattern/V-reversal/blow-off exhaustion analysis
• Volume and price structure
• Support/resistance
• Moving averages
• Oscillators (RSI, MACD)
• Fibonacci retracement
• Candlestick reversal signals
• Intraday price/volume action

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