TTD: Post-Capitulation Base—Buying the 52s Dip for a 24h Pop into Mid-55s

TTD — Multi-timeframe, indicator-rich, step-by-step technical debrief and 24-hour game plan

1. Market structure and context

• Shock event: On 2025-08-08, TTD gapped down from ~88 to the mid-50s (open ~56.64) and closed ~54.23 on extreme volume (105M+). This is a classic breakaway gap after a major catalyst (likely earnings/guidance). Such gaps often set a new regime with persistent overhead supply.
• Follow-through: 2025-08-11 printed a large range (52.79–56.77) but closed near the lows (53.18) with heavy volume (~37.7M) — selling into strength evident (long upper wick). 2025-08-12 ranged 52.18–54.45 and closed 53.27 on lighter volume (~24.7M). Selling pressure is abating; early signs of base-building near 52–54.
• Current price: 53.27 (close). Intraday reclaimed above VWAP late session, finishing near the daily pivot, suggesting equilibrium into the close.

2. Key levels (derived from recent price action, pivots, and gaps)

• Support: 52.17 (today’s low), 52.15 (S1 pivot from today), 51.02 (S2), 49.87 (S3), then 49.24/48.64 (April closes) and 47.56/46.82 (April lows).
• Resistance: 54.45 (today’s high), 54.42 (R1 pivot), 55.57 (R2), 56.70 (R3), 56.77 (8/11 intraday high), 57.00 (8/08 high) — stacked supply 54.4–57.0.
• Gap reference: Massive breakaway gap from 88.33 (8/07 close) to 56.64 (8/08 open) creates a tall overhead supply zone. Full gap-fill is unlikely near-term; partial “probe” toward mid/upper 50s is plausible on relief bounces.

3. Daily pivots (based on 8/12 H=54.45, L=52.175, C=53.27)

• Pivot (P): 53.30
• R1: 54.42; R2: 55.57; R3: 56.70
• S1: 52.15; S2: 51.02; S3: 49.87 Interpretation: Close ≈ Pivot implies balanced tape into the close. Expect magnet behavior around 53.1–53.4, with expansion toward S1/R1 likely early next session.

4. Trend and moving averages

• Short-term trend: Down sharply. Price is far below 5/10/20/50-day SMAs after the breakaway gap.
• 5-SMA (approx): ~67.7 (well above price). 10–20 SMAs cluster in the 70s–80s; 50-SMA likely mid/upper 70s. Translation: Any bounce remains a countertrend rally until price reclaims the mid-50s upper 50s and starts building higher lows.
• Slope: All key MAs are turning down; however, the rate of downside momentum has cooled last two sessions.

5. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily: Deeply oversold, estimated in the mid-20s to near 30, curling up slightly. This supports a short-term mean-reversion bounce setup.
• Stochastics: Oversold and attempting a cross higher — aligns with a tactical rebound probability.
• MACD (daily): Bearish beneath zero with a large negative spread after the gap, but histogram contraction is likely beginning as price stabilizes — early signs of momentum loss by sellers.

6. Volatility and ranges

• ATR: Post-gap, ATR exploded (from ~2–3 to 5+). Today’s true range was ~2.27, a contraction versus the shock day. Expect high, but moderating, realized volatility.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is hugging the lower band; the middle band (20-SMA) is far above, so mean-reversion to the true middle band is unrealistic in 24h. A snapback to the lower-third of the band envelope (mid-50s) is feasible.

7. Volume and participation

• Capitulation day (8/08) printed 105M+ shares — a potential washout signature. Volume stepped down on 8/11 (37.7M) and again on 8/12 (~24.7M), indicating supply exhaustion is progressing.
• Intraday 8/12: Late-session prints above session VWAP, with closing near the pivot, hint at dip-buying absorption around 52.2–52.8 and better balance into the bell.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAP

• 8/12 session VWAP: Approximately 53.0–53.2. Close at 53.27 is a mild reclaim; constructive for a tactical bounce.
• Anchored VWAP from the gap-open (8/08 ~56.64) likely sits mid-50s; expect first meaningful supply reaction as price approaches ~55–56.

9. Fibonacci perspectives

• Micro (8/11 low 52.79 to 8/11 high 56.77): 38.2%/50%/61.8% retracements cluster around 55.3/54.8/54.2 — coincident with R1/R2 and today’s high. This confluence strengthens 54.2–55.6 as a near-term supply zone.
• Intraday (8/12 low 52.18 to high 54.45): A 50% pullback sits ~53.31 (near pivot/close), which is exactly where price settled — balanced range ready to expand next session.

10. Candlestick/price action reads

• 8/11: Upper-wick rejection into 56.8; close near lows — sellers defended strength.
• 8/12: Small-bodied day with a lower shadow; buyers showed up sub-52.3 and price closed near pivot — early stabilization. Not a classic bullish reversal, but improved character.

11. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Price is below cloud, Tenkan and Kijun above price, and Lagging Span below price — bearish regime. Short-term mean reversion rallies tend to fail near the Tenkan/Kijun (likely mid-50s), reinforcing the 54.5–55.5 sell zone.

12. DeMark/Sequential (qualitative)

• After the crash, daily bars likely advanced into a 8–9 count oversold condition; stabilization consistent with a reflexive bounce within 1–3 sessions.

13. Pivot-based scenarios for the next 24 hours

• Baseline expectation (moderate probability): Early dip toward S1 (52.15–52.6) attracts buyers; bounce rotates price back to pivot (53.3) and tests R1 (54.4). If momentum persists, extension into 54.8–55.5 (R1–R2/Fib cluster) before supply caps.
• Bull case (~55%): Hold above 52.4 on early dip; reclaim 54.0, push into 54.4–55.3. Late-day fade from supply possible.
• Base case (~30%): Range 52.5–54.0 with whipsaws around VWAP/pivot; net unchanged to slightly higher close.
• Bear break (~15%): Lose 52.15 decisively; momentum accelerates to 51.0 (S2 ~51.02). Further extension risk to 49.9 (S3) if broad tape weakens or negative news hits.

14. Risk management and asymmetry

• Long entries anchored near S1 (52.2–52.6) offer favorable R:R targeting the R1–R2 zone (54.4–55.6). A protective stop just below S2 (e.g., 51.6–51.0) maintains ~2:1 to 3:1 reward-to-risk depending on exact entry and target.
• Short setups look better tactically near 55–56 (anchored VWAP/supply cluster) — but require patience for a higher entry. Given the brief 24-hour horizon and oversold readings, the long-on-dip has better timing odds.

15. Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Momentum is still bearish on higher timeframes, but oversold oscillators, volume deceleration, VWAP reclaim, and proximity to S1 support increase bounce odds.
• Expect a choppy open with a potential flush into 52.2–52.8, followed by a rotation toward 54.4–55.3. The overhead supply in mid-50s is dense; anticipate resistance and consider harvesting profits into that zone.

Actionable plan (24h):

• Bias: Tactical Buy (long) on a pullback.
• Entry (limit): 52.60 (between today’s S1 and intraday absorption zone; improves R:R).
• Profit target: 55.30 (below R2/Fib confluence to increase fill odds).
• Risk context (not an order field): Consider a stop ~51.60–51.00 (below S2) for disciplined risk control; position size for 1–2% account risk.

Probability-weighted path: 52.2–52.8 test early; then 53.3 pivot reclaim; push into 54.4 (R1). Stretch targets 54.8–55.3 if buyers sustain control. Breakdown invalidation if 52.15 fails with momentum.

Conclusion: Favor a 24-hour mean-reversion long from 52s into mid-55s, respecting tight risk if 52 gives way.