Under Armour at a Crossroads: Fade the Pivot Pop, Target the 5.00 Base

Executive summary and 24h outlook

• Bias: Bearish-to-neutral over the next 24 hours with a slight downward drift. Expect a choppy range with a test of 5.00–5.03 and overhead supply capping 5.15–5.20.
• Trade idea: Fade strength. Optimal short entry on a push into 5.15–5.17; target a retest of the round-number base near 5.00.
• Expected 24h range: 4.98–5.18. Probable path: early attempt to reclaim the daily pivot (~5.12) fails, followed by a drift back toward 5.03/5.00.

Market structure and recent price action

• Regime shift: A large gap-down on 2025-08-08 (close 6.64 to open 5.28; close 5.44) on very high volume (~61.9M) broke the prior uptrend and established a new, lower value area. Post-gap, price has been carving a sideways-to-lower consolidation between ~4.92 and ~5.37, recently tightening into 5.00–5.20.
• Current print: 5.07. Intraday (2025-08-25) low 5.01, rebound to 5.15, faded to ~5.08 by 20:00.
• Pattern: A developing descending triangle/rectangle with a flat base near 5.00 and lower highs at 5.37 → 5.19 → 5.15. This is typically bearish if the base gives way, but as long as 5.00/4.92 holds, the setup is range-bound and mean-reverting within the band.

Support and resistance map (confluence-focused)

• Support: 5.00 (psychological, today’s low ~5.01), 4.92 (post-gap swing low, 2025-08-14), 4.85 (gap-day low zone).
• Resistance: 5.12–5.15 (intraday supply and today’s rejection area; near daily pivot cluster), 5.17–5.20 (recent highs), 5.31–5.37 (post-gap bounce cap), 5.44 (gap day close), 5.65+ (pre-gap shelf; distant).
• Volume memory: Heaviest participation anchored around the gap day 5.20–5.50 region; overhead supply likely thick between 5.20 and 5.44.

Trend diagnostics across timeframes

• Daily trend: Down since gap; price is below the 20/50-day MAs (est. >6), confirming a bearish higher-timeframe regime.
• Short-term trend (5–10 sessions): Sideways-to-down within 5.00–5.20. Lower highs and equal-to-slightly higher lows suggest compression.
• Intraday (hourly): Series of lower highs today (5.15 peak faded), with VWAP gravitating around ~5.08–5.10; price settling slightly below VWAP into the close → weak-handed close.

Moving averages (approximations from provided closes)

• SMA5 ≈ 5.09; SMA10 ≈ 5.08. Price at 5.07 is marginally below both → micro-bearish tilt.
• SMA20, SMA50: well above price (legacy from pre-gap 6–7+ zone). Strong overhead trend filter remains bearish.
• EMA alignment: Short EMAs below long EMAs; no bullish cross in sight.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Estimated low-40s (post-gap oversold bounce faded; no confirmation of a new up leg). This level implies weak momentum with room to retest the base without immediate oversold constraints.
• Stochastic (fast/slow): Mid-range with a recent downtick, consistent with range churn and favoring fades at resistance over breakouts.
• MACD (12,26,9): Negative and flat-to-slightly improving histogram since the 4.92 low, but below zero line; momentum rebounds have been sold.

Volatility and range metrics

• ATR(14) daily: Estimated ~0.12–0.16 after the gap shock; current realized intraday ranges are ~0.10–0.17. Expect another 10–15c window unless a catalyst hits.
• Bollinger Bands (short lookback 10 to adapt post-gap): Midline ≈ 5.08; bands approx 4.98–5.18. Current price ~5.07 sits near the lower-middle of the envelope → mean reversion attempts likely stall around 5.12–5.15 with sellers defending.

Volume analytics

• Post-gap down volume exceeded up volume; OBV likely trending lower. Subsequent bounces have occurred on diminishing volume, signaling distribution on strength.
• Today’s intraday: Stronger relative activity early near 5.01–5.05 and during the 5.15 rejection; net result is a supply-weighted session closing near VWAP but below the intraday recovery highs.

VWAP and intraday structure

• Today’s VWAP approx ~5.08–5.10. Late-session price at ~5.08–5.10 indicates neutrality at best; failure to hold above VWAP on the last hours typically leads to early next-session tests of S1/LOD if broader market isn’t strongly risk-on.

Pivot points (derived from 2025-08-22 H/L/C: 5.19/5.02/5.14)

• Pivot P ≈ 5.1167; R1 ≈ 5.213; S1 ≈ 5.043; R2 ≈ 5.287; S2 ≈ 4.947.
• Today’s price respected S1 on the downside (low ~5.01 near S1) and failed under P into the close → neutral-to-bearish. Tomorrow’s R1 region 5.21 aligns with a thicker supply layer.

Fibonacci context (swing high to post-gap low)

• Swing: 7.57 (late July peak) to 4.85 (gap-day low) → range 2.72.
• Key retracements from 4.85: 38.2% = ~5.89; 50% = ~6.21; 61.8% = ~6.61.
• Post-gap bounces have not reached even the 38.2% retrace → confirms weak repair; sellers are active well before classical retrace thresholds.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; Lagging span below price and cloud; Tenkan near ~5.09, Kijun ~5.16. Price below Kijun and toggling around Tenkan → bearish bias; rallies to Kijun tend to be sold.

Regression and channel analysis

• Linear regression over the last month slopes downward. Price oscillates near the lower half of the channel, with mean near ~5.10–5.12. The upper channel boundary coincides with 5.18–5.20.

Candlestick read

• Aug 14 printed a hammer near 4.92; subsequent days produced small real bodies with upper wicks near 5.15–5.19, reflecting persistent supply. Today’s intraday upper wick into ~5.15 followed by a fade adds to the sell-the-rip narrative.

Relative assessment and probabilities (24h)

• Bearish continuation into base (test 5.03/5.00, possibly 4.97): ~55%.
• Range-bound chop 5.03–5.15 with no decisive break: ~30%.
• Upside squeeze above 5.20 toward 5.26–5.29 (R1/R2 test): ~15% (requires market tailwind; currently lower-likelihood given structure and overhead supply).

Risk catalysts

• No explicit company-specific catalyst in the next 24h provided. Macro headlines could shift beta, but absent that, technicals dominate.

Trade plan and execution details

• Edge: Fading strength into a confluence of resistance (daily pivot band 5.12–5.16, intraday supply at 5.15, Kijun ~5.16, upper short-term Bollinger ~5.18).
• Entry: Place a limit to short at 5.15 (tolerance 5.15–5.17). This aims to sell into a liquidity sweep toward the pivot/Kijun zone.
• Target: 5.00 (round-number base and close to S1/S2 composite). If momentum accelerates, partials can be taken at 5.04 with a runner to 4.98; base case TP 5.00 for the plan.
• Risk management (contextual, not part of the requested fields): Consider a protective stop above 5.23–5.24 (above R1 and today’s supply shelf), yielding ~0.08–0.09 risk for ~0.15 reward (RR ≈ 1.7–1.9). If no fill on a pop, an alternate trigger is a breakdown short below 5.03 with a tighter stop, but the preferred plan is the fade.

Bottom line

• Structure, momentum, and overhead supply favor selling strength rather than buying dips until 5.00/4.92 decisively breaks or a strong reclaim of 5.20 occurs. Expect choppy downside drift; a short opened near 5.15 has favorable odds to capture a move back to 5.00 within 24 hours.