Detailed Technical Analysis for Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) as of July 16, 2025

1. Chart & Price Structure Review

• Current Price: $0.391
• Previous Day Close: $0.370 (July 15)
• Today's Session: Opened at $0.373, high $0.4175, low $0.3650, close at $0.391 (Near high).
• Intraday Price Action: Bullish recovery with strong closing momentum.

2. Trend Analysis

• Medium-Term Trend: The major trend since early April 2025 has been strongly downward, moving from ~$0.70 in mid-June to recent lows of $0.30. However, the recent decline looks sharp and potentially oversold.
• Recent Reversal: The last three trading days show a potential bottoming with price rebounding from $0.30 (July 9) to $0.45 (July 11) before retracing. Today's move is a strong bullish engulfing pattern reclaiming prior day losses.

3. Volume and Volatility

• Volume Climax: Major volume spikes seen June 10–13 and July 7–9 with significant price moves signaling panic selling/exhaustion.
• Today's Volume: ~350,000 (down from 1.9M yesterday and 4.6M on July 11) indicating volume is tapering on stabilization.
• ATR (Average True Range, est.): ATR has surged recently with larger daily candles, but is now compressing, suggesting an imminent directional move.

4. Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Supports: $0.37 (recent close), $0.36 (intraday low), $0.35 (consolidation zone), $0.30 (multi-day low).
• Key Resistances: $0.42–$0.43 (recent swing high), $0.45–$0.46, then $0.50+.

5. Candlestick Patterns

• Bullish Engulfing: Today's session engulfs the prior day's candle, closing near the high, and reverses two days of losses — a potential short-term reversal signal.
• Recent Bottom Wicks: Multiple sessions with long lower wicks (hammer types) suggest demand absorption near $0.36–$0.37.

6. Moving Averages (Approximated)

• 20-Session MA: Roughly $0.42 — price is below, but today's close approaches the MA after a period underneath it. A close above $0.42 could trigger further buying.
• 50-Session MA: Above $0.45 — hence still acting as a longer-term resistance.

7. RSI & Momentum (Estimates)

• Using the recent price collapse and rebound, the RSI likely dived into oversold territory (<30) around July 7–9, and is now moving upwards, signaling a momentum reversal but not yet overbought.

8. Fibonacci Retracement

• From $0.30 (July 9) swing low to $0.46 (July 11) swing high:
  • 38.2% retrace: ~$0.39 (current price)
  • 50% retrace: ~$0.38
  • 61.8% retrace: ~$0.37 The price is exactly at the 38.2% retracement, typically a pivot point.

9. Volume Profile & Accumulation

• High Turnover Jun/Jul Lows: Heavy volume on collapse (July 7–9, 24M–17M shares!) hints at possible capitulation. Subsequent lighter volume as price rises suggests shorts may be covering and new buyers entering.
• Big Spike Recovery Moves: Prior sharp bounce from $0.30 to $0.46 in two days is classic mean reversion and potential base formation.

10. Sentiment & Market Structure

• Oversold, Short-Squeeze Risk: Fast, deep selloffs with heavy volume often attract short-sellers, but equally, these conditions create fuel for sharp rebound if shorts caught off guard by any bullish catalyst or lack of further sellers.
• Accumulation Signs: Reversal candles with heavy volume and higher lows forming, all hints low may be in — at least temporarily.

11. Tape Reading & Microstructure (1h data)

• Sequential higher lows in the intraday chart today; late-session buying pushed price near session highs. No evidence of late-day selloff; strong close suggests bullish continuation overnight.

12. Statistical Mean Reversion

• Recent price is -40% below June highs, and the weekly range extension is at historical extremes. Probability of further hard downside is lessening unless new negative news arrives.

13. Risk-Reward & Trade Plan

• Given the volume profile, reversal, and technical evidence, risk on a long (buy) position is defined by a close below $0.36–$0.37 (3–4c risk), targeting $0.43–$0.45 (5–6c+ reward).
• Immediate stop could be set under $0.365 (intraday low and multi-day support).

14. Pattern Recognition

• Falling Wedge/Capitulation Base: The structure since June resembles a falling wedge, broken by a sharp move upward on July 11, retraced, and now holding new higher lows.

15. Composite Technical Conclusion

All indicators—oversold levels, strong reversal candle, stabilizing volatility, supportive volume patterns, and proximity to technical supports—suggest a high probability for a short-term upward continuation move. Cautious optimism is warranted with stops under $0.365 and upside to at least $0.43–$0.45 within 24–48 hours barring new negative catalysts.

16. Short-Term Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Bias: BULLISH
• Expected Move: Expect a test of $0.42–$0.43 (recent swing high), with potential extension to $0.45. Downside risk is limited to $0.36. Volatility remains elevated, so sharp moves are possible. Probability of a mean reversion higher (bounce) outweighs breakdown risk at current levels.

Final Trading Decision

• Recommendation: Buy (Long Position)
• Entry (Buy) Price: Optimal to open as close to $0.391 as possible (ideally $0.39–$0.392 on any small retrace/pullback for optimal risk/reward). Maximum entry $0.395.
• Profit Take (Close): $0.43 — matches previous swing high, solid resistance level, capping a probable 10%+ gain over next 24 hours.
• Stop/Invalidation: Below $0.365.

Summary: Vaxart (VXRT) shows classic signs of a short-term bottom. Bullish reversal candle, oversold technicals, supportive microstructure and mean reversion statistics favor a tactical long. Buy around $0.391—target $0.43; reassess if price closes under $0.365.