WBA poised for a $12 breakout: 38.2% pullback absorbed, dip-buy setup toward $12.18–$12.20

Executive snapshot

• Ticker: WBA | Current price: $11.98
• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish, looking for a retest of $12.10–$12.20 if $12.00 pivot is reclaimed and held. Expected intraday range: $11.88–$12.20 (ATR-informed).
• Thesis: A shallow 38.2% Fibonacci pullback from the Aug 20 swing high to the Aug 26 low held on very heavy volume, followed by an attempted upside re-engagement on Aug 27. Momentum is neutral-to-positive, price sits above rising medium-term MAs, and $12 remains the tactical pivot. Favor buying a minor dip toward $11.95 for a push into $12.18–$12.20.

1. Price action and structure

• Trend context: Since early May, WBA built a base around $11.10–$11.30, transitioned to a steady uptrend through July (higher highs/lows), and pressed to a $12.20 high on Aug 20 before a brief pullback.
• Recent swing: Jul 18 low (~$11.49) to Aug 20 high ($12.20) = +$0.71 range. Pullback bottomed at $11.92 on Aug 26, which is a textbook shallow correction for a still-intact uptrend.
• Key levels: • Support: $11.92 (38.2% Fib + closing support), $11.88 (S1 pivot from Aug 27), $11.64–$11.66 (early Aug congestion), $11.50 (round number, prior demand). • Resistance: $12.00 (psychological + daily pivot), $12.07–$12.10 (minor supply shelf), $12.18–$12.22 (prior swing high cluster incl. R2 pivot ≈ $12.21).
• Candlesticks: • Aug 25: Wide-range down bar on elevated volume closing near $11.97—shakeout candidate. • Aug 26: Very heavy volume, modestly down close ($11.92) with range containment—potential absorption near Fib support. • Aug 27: Huge volume, wide range ($11.90–$12.11), small real body but above open; close at $11.98 suggests demand matched supply at key pivot ($12). A decisive break and hold above $12.00–$12.10 would confirm continuation.

2. Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day SMA ≈ $11.93–$11.94 (price modestly above) → near-term positive tilt.
• 50-day SMA (est.) ≈ $11.55–$11.60 (price well above) → medium-term uptrend intact.
• Slope assessment: Both 20 and 50 SMAs rising; 20 > 50 implies a maintained bullish structure.
• 200-day SMA: Not observable from this dataset; given longer-term weakness earlier in 2025, the 200-SMA is likely above price, indicating the broader primary trend may still be down, but the intermediate trend has turned up.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) (approx): ~52 → neutral-to-slightly bullish, ample room to move higher without overbought risks.
• MACD(12,26,9) (qualitative): Compressing near the zero line after a modest pullback; histogram appears to be curling up, consistent with an early re-acceleration if price reclaims $12.00–$12.10.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Mid-range; momentum can expand in either direction but favors upside if $12 pivot is recaptured on volume.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) (approx): ~$0.12 → expected 1-day swing consistent with a $11.88–$12.20 band under typical conditions.
• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Midline near ~$11.93; upper band estimated around ~$12.15–$12.20 given recent dispersion. Current price sits below the upper band with room to advance; band width is moderate, suggesting there is scope for a directional push if $12 breaks.

5. Volume, OBV, and accumulation/distribution

• Volume profile: Aug 25–27 saw unusually large turnover (Aug 26 ~90M; Aug 27 ~452M). Despite that supply influx, price held the $11.90s and closed back near $12—indicative of absorption rather than capitulation.
• OBV (qualitative): Trend softened during the pullback but stabilized into Aug 27. A push above $12.10 would likely inflect OBV higher, confirming accumulation.
• Wyckoff lens: Buying climax near $12.20 (Aug 20), reaction to $11.92, and a potential secondary test at $11.97–$11.98. The structure resembles a brief re-accumulation; a Sign of Strength would be a sustained break above $12.10 with expanding volume.

6. Fibonacci, pivots, and confluence

• Fibonacci retracement of Jul 18 → Aug 20: 38.2% = ~$11.93, 50% = ~$11.85, 61.8% = $11.76. The pullback halted exactly at the 38.2% band ($11.92–$11.94), indicating a shallow correction typical of an ongoing trend.
• Daily pivot (using Aug 27 H/L/C ≈ 12.11/11.90/11.98): • Pivot P ≈ $12.00 • R1 ≈ $12.09, R2 ≈ $12.21 • S1 ≈ $11.88, S2 ≈ $11.79 Confluence: $12.00 pivot aligns with psychological resistance; $12.09–$12.10 aligns with minor supply; $12.20–$12.21 aligns with prior swing high and R2.

7. Pattern and channel views

• Bull flag continuation: The Aug 20–26 pullback is short in time and price and slopes gently—typical flag behavior. A break above $12.07–$12.10 would complete the flag and target $12.20+.
• Linear regression channel (recent 30 sessions, qualitative): Positive slope; current price near mid-channel, offering favorable asymmetry to the upside if the pivot is reclaimed.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative approximation)

• Price is near/just below Tenkan ($12.03) and above Kijun ($11.85–$11.90 est.). With price likely above a relatively thin cloud (given steady rise), a Tenkan recapture often precedes momentum bursts. Chikou span likely approaching/above price, supportive if $12.10 breaks.

9. Anchored VWAP and microstructure

• AVWAP anchored to the heavy-volume Aug 26 session likely sits close to $11.94–$11.96. Price holding above that zone suggests new longs are not underwater; dips toward $11.95 should attract bids. A fast move above $12.05–$12.10 would put most late sellers offside.

10. Probabilistic 24h outlook

• Base case (≈60–65%): Price reclaims/holds $12.00, pushes into $12.07–$12.10, and tests $12.18–$12.20. Expect intraday pullbacks to be supported near $11.94–$11.97.
• Bear case (≈25–30%): Failure at $12.00 with supply overhead; retest of $11.92. A decisive break below $11.88 opens $11.85–$11.76 (50–61.8% Fib) but probability within 24h is lower without a macro catalyst.
• Low-prob tail (≈10%): Fast breakout over $12.20 toward $12.28–$12.32 if stops trigger above the highs.

11. Trade plan synthesis

• Rationale to go long: Confluence of shallow Fib retracement, supportive 20/50 SMAs, neutral-to-positive momentum, and heavy-volume absorption around $11.92–$12.00.
• Optimal entry: Buy-the-dip limit near AVWAP/Fib confluence ($11.95). Alternative momentum entry (secondary): buy stop on break/hold above $12.10 (not the primary for this plan, but noted).
• Profit-taking: Set TP just below major resistance at $12.20 to improve fill probability—$12.18.
• Risk framing (not required but prudent): Suggested protective stop ~ $11.86 (below S1/50% Fib zone), giving approx R:R ~ 2.5:1 from $11.95 to $12.18.

Conclusion The technical evidence tilts bullish for the next session: the 38.2% retracement held on heavy volume, price is slightly above the 20-SMA and well above the 50-SMA, RSI ~52, MACD curling, and $12.00 acts as the tactical pivot. Plan: Buy a minor dip at ~$11.95, target a push into $12.18 within the next 24 hours, while respecting $11.86 as a line in the sand in case of unexpected weakness.