Gap Power, VWAP Pivot: WBTN Poised to Spring From 16.2–16.3 Toward a 17.5 Retest

Comprehensive multi-lens technical assessment for WBTN over the next 24 hours

Context snapshot

• Ticker: WBTN (WEBTOON Entertainment Inc.)
• Currency: USD
• Current price: 16.44 (as of 2025-08-14 ~20:54 UTC)
• Regime shift: Massive breakaway gap on 2025-08-13 with extreme volume (15.14M vs ~0.2–0.5M prior), high 18.45, close 16.96, followed by consolidation day on 2025-08-14 (H 17.59, L 15.85, C 16.44, 2.28M intraday volume across tracked windows). This is a classic gap-and-go setup transitioning into day-2 digestion.

1. Price action and market structure

• Breakaway gap: Price exploded from a multi-month base (~9–10) to an 8/13 intraday high of 18.45. Such gaps typically stem from material catalysts (earnings/news) and often do not fully fill in the immediate days if the catalyst is truly regime-changing.
• Day-2 action (8/14): Expanded-range but orderly digestion; higher low vs gap-day low. Session printed a red candle with long upper wick (17.59 rejection) but repeatedly defended the 16.0–16.3 region, indicating buyers stepping in around the anchored value area post-gap.
• Key intraday reference levels from 8/14 minutes/hourly:
  • Resistance: 17.33–17.36 (hourly closing band), 17.59 (day high), then round 18.00 and 18.45 (gap-day high).
  • Supports: 16.49/16.30/16.12 cluster (hourly closes/opens), 16.00 whole number, then 15.85 (session low). Loss of 15.85 opens 15.60–15.65 (50% retrace zone) as the next magnet.
• Structural read: Bullish regime with a constructive day-2 flag/inside-like consolidation relative to the gap day. Price is building acceptance around 16.2–16.5.

2. Trend diagnostics (multi-timeframe MAs)

• 5D SMA ≈ 12.16 (calc: 8.92, 9.14, 9.36, 16.96, 16.44) — price is well above.
• 10D SMA ≈ ~10.5–11 (est.) — far below.
• 20D SMA ≈ ~9.6–9.8 (est.), 50D ≈ ~9.2–9.5 (est.).
• Interpretation: Steep bullish slope emerging. Price is extended vs. moving averages (a sign of momentum), but also implies pullbacks can be sharp. In strong momentum phases, price can “ride the 5–10 SMA” and consolidate above them; here they’re far below, so the more relevant dynamic supports are VWAPs/Fibs and prior day levels, not traditional MAs.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily: Likely high 70s after the breakout day and minor giveback on day 2 (estimate ~74–78). This indicates strong momentum but not yet an outright exhaustion blow-off for a catalyst-driven breakout. Day-2 cool-off is normal.
• Stochastics: Likely embedded in overbought region but curling down slightly; typical of a bull flag rather than a top when price behavior remains orderly.
• MACD (12/26/9): Strong positive cross with rapidly rising histogram. No divergence yet on daily; momentum trend intact.
• Read: Momentum supports an upward bias after digestion. Oscillators alone would warn of overbought, but in news-driven gaps they are less reliable as fade signals.

4. Volatility and range (ATR/Bands/Keltner)

• True range: 8/13 TR ≈ 5.725 (18.45–12.725), 8/14 TR ≈ 1.738. ATR(14) is being reset sharply higher from a low-volatility base. For next session, an expected move of ~±1.2 to ±1.8 is reasonable.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is outside/at the upper band after the gap, often followed by a 1–3 day consolidation. Day-2 pullback into/near the outside band is consistent with a continuation setup.
• Keltner channels: Expansion with price holding above mid-channel on day 2 suggests trend continuation probability remains elevated.

5. Volume analytics

• Regime shift: 15.14M shares on 8/13 vs prior ~0.2–0.5M; 8/14 still elevated at ~2.3M across tracked hours — confirms sustained interest/liquidity.
• OBV (qualitative): Sharp step up on 8/13; mild dip on 8/14 but holding most gains. No bearish volume divergence on the daily yet.
• Intraday volume-by-price (8/14): Value concentrated 16.2–16.5 — a developing node; expect this to act as a pivot area.

6. VWAP/Anchored VWAP

• Regular session VWAP (8/14) hovered around 16.2–16.4 most of the day; the close near 16.44 suggests end-of-day re-anchoring around that value.
• Anchored VWAP from the 8/13 catalyst (open/first significant thrust) likely sits in the mid-16s; repeated reversion to ~16.2–16.4 indicates buyers defending that anchor.
• Read: 16.2–16.4 is the key battleground. Holding above the anchored VWAP favors a push toward 17–17.6.

7. Fibonacci mapping (8/13 low to high)

• Range: 12.725 → 18.45 (Δ = 5.725)
  • 23.6% retrace: 17.10
  • 38.2% retrace: 16.26
  • 50% retrace: 15.59
  • 61.8% retrace: 14.84
• 8/14 low (15.85) held above the 50% level (15.59) and price closed back above 38.2% (16.26). That sequence is textbook constructive: initial shakeout toward 50%, close back over 38.2% often precedes a retest of 23.6% (≈17.10) and potentially the prior high in the following sessions.

8. Candles and patterns

• 8/13: Wide-range bullish candle (marubozu-like) on extreme volume — breakaway gap.
• 8/14: Day-2 digestion, upper wick rejecting 17.6 but strong defense above 16.0–16.3; effectively a flag/small range contraction vs 8/13 bar. Not an outside reversal; no topping pattern confirmed.
• Pattern: Bull flag / high-tight-flag variant (given >70% move from base and tight consolidation relative to gap-day range).

9. Elliott/Dow structure (heuristic)

• Elliott: Impulsive Wave 1 from 12.7 → 18.45, current Wave 2 pullback respecting 38.2–50% retrace. If valid, Wave 3 could emerge upon reclaiming ~17.3–17.6, aiming for/through 18.45 in subsequent sessions (beyond 24h), with 1.272–1.618 extensions at ~19.6–20.7.
• Dow: Higher high established; now seeking a higher low above 15.6–15.9. Maintaining that keeps the uptrend intact.

10. Market profile and liquidity zones

• High-volume node: 16.2–16.5 (value area). Expect chop here in the open, with responsive buying.
• Low-volume pockets: 16.9–17.1 and 17.3–17.6; if price pushes into these with volume, it can traverse quickly to 17.6. Above 17.6, 18.0 and 18.45 are supply tests.

11. Statistical/behavioral notes for gap runners

• Day-2 consolidations that hold above 38.2% retrace and close near VWAP tend to resolve higher within 1–3 sessions if the catalyst is intact. Failures usually lose the Day-2 low quickly and gravitate toward 50–61.8% retracement. So 15.85/15.6 are critical for risk control.

12. Intraday game plan for next 24 hours

• Bullish base case (60–65% odds): Hold 16.1–16.3 off the open, push 16.9–17.1 early, then 17.33 pivot, then 17.59. If momentum and tape strength appear (bid stacking, positive delta), a late-day attempt at 17.8–18.0 is possible. Primary profit-taking zone for a 24h swing: 17.4–17.6.
• Bearish/repair case (35–40% odds): Lose 16.1 and test 15.85 quickly; a decisive break targets 15.60 (50% Fib). Deep fills to 15.2–15.4 are lower probability within 24h unless broad market stress or catalyst fade emerges. Given the structural regime change, selling strength is not favored until the 15.85 pivot fails.

13. Risk management and position engineering (for the plan)

• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip in the 16.20–16.30 zone (anchored VWAP/value area) to gain favorable R:R.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of the requested output but crucial): 15.68–15.75, beneath day-2 low and 50% Fib, allowing for typical opening volatility. That creates ~0.5–0.6 downside vs ~1.2–1.3 upside to 17.5–17.6 (R:R ≈ 2:1).
• Profit target for 24h: 17.5–17.6 (prior day’s high vicinity and 23.6% Fib test from above), with partials potentially at 17.1 and 17.33.

14. Confluence summary

• Bullish: Breakaway gap, volume expansion, constructive 38.2% Fib hold, anchored VWAP support ~16.2–16.4, strong MACD/OBV, emerging higher-low structure, and intact momentum despite oscillator overbought.
• Cautionary: Price is extended vs MAs; Band ride can fail if 15.85 breaks; upper wick shows supply near 17.6. Volatility remains elevated; slippage risk around round numbers.

Outlook and verdict for the next 24 hours

• Bias: Moderately bullish continuation after a healthy day-2 consolidation.
• Expected range: 15.9–17.6, with a bias toward testing 17.3–17.6 if 16.2–16.3 holds off the open.
• Actionable plan: Buy the dip at 16.25; target 17.55 within the next session.