WOLF: Fade the Bounce — Short Into 30.7–31.5 Resistance for a Retest of 27s

Important: This is market commentary and educational analysis based solely on the data provided. It is not financial advice. Extreme volatility and event risk are evident; size and risk controls are essential.

1. What just happened (context recap)

• Current price (after-hours): $28.60 (20:00:02Z), with last hour closing near $28.18.
• 9/29 close: ~$22.10 after a historic collapse from ~$145 on 9/26. 9/30 saw a massive gap up and huge intraday range.
• 9/30 regular session range: $27.11–$34.28; high volume (~47M shares). Premarket spike printed as high as ~$35.96.
• Intraday structure on 9/30: Early expansion to $33–34, then persistent lower highs and lower closes into the close (distribution into weakness).

2. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily) regime shift: Price repriced lower by an order of magnitude on 9/29, then bounced 9/30 but closed in the lower quartile of the day’s range. This is characteristic of a reflex rally inside a primary downtrend.
• Intraday trend (9/30): After the initial squeeze to $33–34, successive hours printed lower highs: 34.28 → 32.62 → 31.28 → 31.20 → 30.69, with closes stepping down: 33.44 → 31.37 → 30.76 → 29.60 → 30.65 → 28.77 → 28.18. This is a clean distribution pattern.

3. Support/Resistance map (from provided prints)

• Immediate resistance: 29.85–30.00 (pivot region), 30.70 (50% retrace of 9/30 day range), 31.37 (15:30 close/pivot), 31.54 (61.8% intraday retrace), 32.62 (16:30 high), 33.44 (14:30 close), 34.28 (intraday high), 35.96 (premarket spike).
• Immediate support: 28.60 (current), 28.18 (20:00 close), 28.00 round, 27.11 (intraday low), 26.75 (61.8% retrace of 22.10→34.28 swing), 26.10 (midday low), 25.37 (late-morning low), 24.50 (AH pivot), 22.10 (9/29 close; gap base).

4. Candlestick/pattern read

• 9/30 resembles a long upper-wick session (failed expansion above 33–34) with a close near the lows. That combination (upper tail + close in lower quartile) signals supply exhausting demand at higher prices and sets up for follow-through selling or at least a retest of session lows.

5. Gap analysis

• Gap up from 9/29 close ($22.10) to 9/30 open (~$28.75). Price failed to hold over the 14:30 breakout and slipped below the session VWAP late in the day, increasing risk of partial gap-fill behavior in the next session.

6. Volume, VWAP, and profile

• Largest volume during 13:30–15:30; heavy prints at 28–29 early, 33–34 mid, then heavy trade around 30–31 as price rolled over. The day ended below the bulk of the 30–31 volume node and below an estimated session VWAP (~$30–31 zone), indicating sellers controlled the close.
• On-Balance Volume (qualitative): Net-negative through the afternoon as closes stepped down on sustained volumes—another distribution tell.

7. Momentum indicators (qualitative, inferred from structure)

• RSI (intraday) likely peaked near the midday push and faded sub-50 into the close; momentum rolled over. Daily RSI after a crash can remain depressed despite bounces—bearish regime intact.
• MACD (intraday) likely crossed down during the afternoon distribution phase; histogram negative into the close.
• Stochastics: Overbought early, then a bearish cross and embed in lower zone into the close.
• Rate of Change (ROC): Extremely elevated due to regime shift; short-term ROC turned negative by close.

8. Volatility and ranges

• True Range (9/30): ~7.17 (34.28–27.11), about 25% of price—extraordinary.
• Expect persistent high realized volatility next 24 hours; intraday swings of 2–4 points are plausible in either direction.
• Bollinger context (conceptual): With a regime reset, bands likely wide; the late-day close near the lower band implies risk of either a further push lower or a mean-reverting bounce to the mid-band (~30 area) before another leg down.

9. Fibonacci levels

• Intraday 9/30 H/L retraces from low 27.11 to high 34.28:
  • 38.2% bounce: ~29.85 (already a supply area)
  • 50%: ~30.70 (key confluence)
  • 61.8%: ~31.54
• Swing 22.10 (9/29 close) to 34.28 (9/30 H):
  • 38.2% pullback: ~29.63 (price closed below; sign of weakness)
  • 50% pullback: ~28.19 (exactly where the 20:00 hour closed)
  • 61.8% pullback: ~26.75 (next strong support candidate)

10. Classic floor pivots for next session (using H=34.28, L=27.11, C=28.60)

• Pivot (P): ~29.997
• R1: ~32.88; R2: ~37.17
• S1: ~25.71; S2: ~22.83 Interpretation: Trading below P (~30) favors short setups into S1 zone; R1 overlaps 32.6–33.4 supply.

11. Ichimoku (conceptual due to regime change)

• Tenkan (approx 9-period midpoint) ~29 area; price ended below; Kijun/cloud likely overhead. This places price in a corrective bounce below resistance, consistent with sell-the-rip bias.

12. Elliot/Fractal view (heuristic)

• Wave A: Crash into 9/29.
• Wave B: Reflex rally 9/30 toward 34.
• Wave C: Potential continuation lower toward 26–25 region (or deeper gap-fill) over the next 1–2 sessions if 31.5/32.6 caps bounces.

13. Statistical edge and playbook

• Empirical tendency: After a gap-and-crash day followed by a large, failed bounce that closes weak, next session often sees either: a) An early bounce to the 50–61.8% retrace of prior day’s range, then roll over to test/break prior day’s low. b) A direct drift lower/open lower retesting the lows quickly.
• Given the close near 50% of the 22.1→34.28 swing (~28.19) and below session VWAP, the a) scenario is favored: bounce toward 30.7–31.5, then fade.

14. Microstructure cues for the next 24 hours

• Liquidity pockets:
  • Overhead: 30.7–31.5 (clustered highs/closes, retrace, VWAP area) likely to attract supply.
  • Below: 27.1 (prior low). A clean break with momentum likely gaps liquidity down to 26.7, then 26.1 and 25.4 quickly.
• If premarket gaps above 31.5, 32.6–33.4 is the next supply wall; failure there would still keep the short bias.

15. Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Early push to 30.7–31.5, failure, then a slide to 27.2–26.8 by end of session.
• Squeeze case (25%): Pop through 31.5, probe 32.6–33.4; if absorbed, fade resumes; sustained hold above 33.5 invalidates the short thesis short-term.
• Breakdown case (15%): Weak open, straight move to 27.1, break to 26.7/26.1 without offering an ideal bounce entry.

16. Synthesis and plan

• Confluences for a tactical short entry: 50% intraday retrace (~30.70), daily pivot (~30.00), declining intraday highs, VWAP overhead, and late-day distribution. These align for a “sell the rip” setup into resistance.
• Profit target aligns with: Prior low $27.11, 61.8% pullback of the 22.1→34.28 swing ($26.75), and S1 ($25.71). For a 24-hour window and realistic fills, $27.20 is a prudent first target above the prior low.
• Protective stop (not requested but strongly recommended): Above 32.60–33.00 zone to respect R1/structure. That yields an R:R ~ 1.6–2.0 depending on exact fill.

24-hour price path expectation

• Preferred path: Gap or drive to 30.7–31.5 early, then roll toward 27.2 with a risk of spike wicks to 26.8 if 27.1 breaks. Less likely but possible squeeze to 32.6–33.4.

Conclusion

• Bias: Sell strength. The evidence from structure, volume, retracements, and pivots favors fading bounces into 30.7–31.5 with a target near 27.

Risk note

• Event risk appears elevated (the multi-day repricing suggests corporate/news catalysts). Use reduced size, hard stops, and avoid holding through unanticipated headlines if possible.