Step-by-Step Technical Analysis for Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF):

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily Chart)

• Trend Structure:

  • From late January 2025 to mid-March, WOLF traded in the $5–7.5 range, with active swings typical for a volatile small-cap tech stock. The pronounced move occurred on March 28, when the price dropped steeply from $5.38 to $2.59 on huge volume (176M shares), signaling a likely structural break from bad news (e.g., earnings miss, dilution, or regulatory event).
  • The stock attempted a sluggish recovery through April, gradually rising to $4.79 (May 2), then slowly rolling over and trending down again, making lower highs and lower lows.
  • On May 21, the price collapsed again on massive volume: open $1.14, high $1.40, low $0.82, close $1.28 (255M shares), followed by continued weak, choppy intraday action. This repeated high-volume breakdown strongly signals further capitulation and persistent downward pressure.

• Support & Resistance:

  • Former strong support at $5 and $2.5 has become resistance levels.
  • After breaking $2.50 on May 21, the next weak support was $1.00 (as per 52-week lows), which held intraday but is now being tested again after a modest bounce.

2. Volume and Liquidity Analysis

• Sharp spikes in volume on both the March 28 ($2.59 close) and May 21 ($1.28 close) collapses indicate aggressive institutional or panic retail selling.
• Since May 21, volume remains heavy by historical standards (tens of millions per day), but each bounce is shallow and short-lived, confirming lack of real buying appetite and the dominance of supply.
• No evidence of accumulation: no large bullish candlesticks on high volume, no range expansion on recoveries.

3. Short-Term Intraday Price Action

• Intraday data on May 28: Opened at $1.47, attempted to rally above $1.50 but failed, and dropped steadily to $1.3799 at last close.
• All attempts above $1.44 met with immediate selling pressure and no follow-through.
• The period from May 21 ($1.28 close) to May 28 ($1.38 close) is marked by choppy, range-bound, bearish action with no evidence of a base or reversal pattern.

4. Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:
  • 20-day and 50-day SMAs (estimated) are both sharply downward sloping, with the current price well below both, confirming a strong bearish trend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI):
  • RSI likely remains below 30 due to rapid recent price falls, suggesting oversold but with the context of a broken, weak stock (oversold can persist in such downtrends).
• MACD:
  • MACD on daily/4H timeframes will be deeply bearish, with wide negative histograms and no bullish cross in sight.
• Bollinger Bands:
  • Price rides the lower band and is not bouncing back into the band, common in liquidation/failure event tapes.
• ATR (Volatility):
  • ATR has spiked; extreme volatility is present, causing intraday reversals, but the prevailing move is downward.

5. Pattern Recognition

• There is no sign of reversal patterns (e.g., double bottom, hammer, bullish engulfing) at the current levels.
• Instead, WOLF has created a descending triangle pattern since May 22 with a floor near $1.37–$1.39; repeated tests of this support suggest impending breakdown.

6. Market Structure & Psychology

• This setup reflects a stock in free fall due to a disastrous event, with retail capitulation and little institutional interest to step in.
• Failed rallies post-panic selloff are classic for stocks that are about to take another leg lower—the smart money is selling all pops.
• We have not seen any consolidation phase necessary for a durable bottom; instead, price continues to leak.

7. Orderflow & Volume Profile

• Major volume clusters at $1.00 (May 21 panic low) and $1.37–$1.48. With repeated inability to rally above $1.48 and persistent sell pressure at each bounce, the volume-weighted average price for recent trading is declining, reinforcing the short thesis.

8. Liquidity Trap Risk

• Despite being extremely oversold, there is high risk for another leg downward. Institutions who wanted out have not bought back, and retail traders are exhausted.
• No high-probability reversion signal is present. Any bounce has no sustaining flow or volume.

9. Probabilistic Price Prediction (Next 24 Hours)

• Bear Case (75%+ probability):
  • Price breaks $1.37 support intraday, triggers stops, cascades lower toward next round number psychological support: $1.20, $1.00, possibly even $0.85–$0.95 if panic resumes.
• Bull Case (low-probability):
  • Price momentarily rebounds to $1.45–$1.50 but immediately faces heavy resistance and selling.
• Base Case:
  • Short lived optimism, price tests $1.35, breaks, closes near the lows—possibly at or below $1.20 by close of next session.

10. Summary of Professional Investment Techniques Used:

• Trend analysis (multi-timeframe)
• Volume profile and orderflow studies
• Support/resistance mapping
• Candlestick and chart pattern recognition
• Intraday tape reading
• Volatility/ATR studies
• Moving Average and Oscillator-based indicators
• Probability weighting and risk management based on event-driven technicals

11. Actionable Trading Plan

Decision: SELL (SHORT POSITION)

Optimal Entry (Open Price): $1.38 (current close/lower bound of post-market session)

• Any small rally to $1.40–$1.42 can be used to add/scale in.

Profit Target (Close Price): $1.20

• Based on the next psychological support and likely volatility extension.
• Consider partial profit at $1.25 and re-evaluate if $1.00 comes into play.

Risk Management:

• Stop-loss above $1.50 to guard against an improbable rebound.
• Tighten stop if price closes below $1.35 with volume.

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In summary: All major technical, orderflow, and psychological factors point toward renewed downside for WOLF with high probability for further declines as the market continues to liquidate. Only extremely nimble, short-term reversal trades might catch brief bounces; the risk/reward overwhelmingly favors a renewed short position targeting $1.20 or below over the next 24 hours.