Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Aave (AAVE) as of July 9, 2025

1. Price Trend Analysis: Daily, 90-Day Context

AAVE has experienced a significant uptrend over the last three months, approximately doubling in price from the $130–$140 level in April to over $300 as of July 9th. Key phases include:

• Early Accumulation: April through beginning of May, with steady higher lows and persistent attempts to break the $150–$175 range.
• Breakout & Expansion: Clear breakout above prior resistance ($175–$180) around mid-May, followed by a series of substantial bullish candlesticks and aggressively increased volumes—a sign of institutional demand and FOMO buying.
• Parabolic Advance: From mid-June, price momentum accelerated, carrying AAVE from $230 to $300+ in just a few weeks, suggesting speculative blowoff phases may be underway.
• Recent Volatility: Large intraday swings, heavy volumes, and multi-hundred million dollar trading days since late June—indicative of both strong interest as well as profit-taking or distribution.

2. Candle Pattern & Volume Analysis

• Volume Profile: Bullish expansion since May 20 with 500–900M USD traded per day (extreme for AAVE). Spikes in trading volume on green days outnumber those on red days, confirming conviction on upward moves.
• Recent Candlestick Behavior:
  • July 8th and 9th: Daily candle bodies are long, with higher closes and minimal upper wicks, signifying closing near daily highs—a classic sign of aggressive buyer control.
  • Late June: Tall wicks both directions, but closes consistently above the open—smart money buying dips.

3. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Short-term Support: $284–$294 (recent breakout + prior week’s close and consolidation zone).
• Psychological Support: $300 (now acting as near-term pivot and possible floor).
• Resistance: $305 (intraday high), and $319 (June 11 high).
• Breakout Potential: If $305 is cleanly broken and retested as support, next leg likely toward $319–$325.

4. Moving Averages (EMAs/SMAs):

• 50-Day EMA: ~270–275 (estimated from recent data); price is far above, showing strong momentum divergence.
• 20-Day SMA: ~285 (approximate from daily closes). Price stretched above both—overbought but not yet exhausted.
• Golden Cross Occurred: Crossovers present in late May suggest underlying bullish macro bias.

5. RSI & Momentum Oscillators

• Daily RSI (estimated): Likely in 77–82 range. Typically, 70+ signals overbought, but in strong uptrends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods (trend persistence effect); this is referred to as a ‘bullish range regime.’
• MACD: Strong positive histogram, MACD line significantly above signal; prior minor bearish cross quickly reversed—momentum is favoring the bulls, but short-term risk of mean reversion.

6. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

• Intraday VWAP (July 9, 13:00): price consistently trading just above or at VWAP, indicating buying conviction; large-volume spikes coincide with upward price movement ($294–$301 range).

7. Order Book Flow and Intraday Structure (Hourly)

• Strong Buy Walls: Multiple hourly candles with low wicks and closes above the open each hour from 04:00–13:00. Buyers consistently absorbing selling pressure.
• No Major Sell Reversals: No significant ‘exhaustion candle’ red prints; trend is stair-stepping upward with healthy consolidation dips (shallow, quickly reclaimed).

8. Fibonacci Retracement/Extension Analysis

• Swing Low (June 21, $234) to High (July 9, $301):
  • 23.6% Retrace: $283 (recent support, twice tested)
  • 38.2% Retrace: $271 (major support)
  • Extensions:
    • 100% Move up: $367 (projected if current trend continues)
    • Minor leg targets: $319 (last swing high) then $333–$340 (projected leg up)

9. Chart Patterns & Price Structure

• Bull Flag/Ascending Channel: From July 1st to July 6th, consolidation in a slightly descending channel, resolved with strong impulsive move on July 7th—textbook bull flag breakout, now retesting the upper channel boundary as support.
• Mini-Cup & Handle: Pattern visible from late June to early July, typically followed by continuation.

10. Elliott Wave Count (Macro Thesis)

• Wave 3 in Action: The price action from June onward is characteristic of a strong third wave (largest, fastest), suggesting the current move might have further to go, but with an eventual retrace (potential wave 4 correction) in the $305–$325 area before another final upleg.

11. On-Balance Volume (OBV)

• Bullish divergence: OBV has risen more rapidly than price in past two days, suggesting latent buying pressure not fully reflected in price yet.

12. Market Sentiment & Context

• Speculative Euphoria: Parabolic rallies can last longer than expected, but risk of sharp retracements increases as new highs are reached—potential for quick 8–12% pullbacks.
• No Signs of Immediate Blow-off Top: No extreme reversal candles or huge upper wicks; trend exhaustion not yet visible.

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Synthesis & Final Trading Decision

While AAVE is stretched on some momentum indicators, the trend structure, order flow, and volume all point to persistent bullish strength. Caution is warranted for chasing overly extended moves, but as long as $294–$295 holds (recent breakout retest), the risk/reward for a continued upside move remains attractive.

Entry Tactics

• To reduce ‘top tick’ risk, optimal long entries can target minor retracements/near-term support: $299–$300 (current VWAP and intraday base).
• Aggressive traders might split entry: 50% at $300.5–301, 50% at $295 on any intraday dip.
• Immediate invalidation if price closes below $293 on high volume (would signal failed breakout).

Upside Target

• Primary target: $319 (next historical resistance and measured breakout move).
• If momentum persists, $333 may be reachable over the next 48–72 hours.

Downside Risk

• Trailing stop below $293 or daily close under $294 recommended.

Conclusion

Overall bias is to the upside with tactical caution—high momentum, strong volume, breakout in play. Optimal trade is a ‘Buy’ on a slight pullback to $300, targeting $319 with tight risk controls.

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