Detailed Technical Analysis of Aave (AAVE) – 2025-07-12

1. Long-Term Trend Analysis (Daily)

Looking at the daily chart over the past three months, AAVE has shown extremely strong bullish momentum. The price has more than doubled from the April lows near $137 to recent highs above $317, with steadily increasing volume during rallies. Since mid-June, volatility has sharply increased, with multiple swing moves of $20–$30 per day and volumes regularly above 500 million, signaling heavy accumulation and institutional participation.

The most recent daily candles show a surge from $254 (June 26) up to a peak of $317 (July 11) – a 24% gain in two weeks. After this, a two-day retracement brought the price to today’s level near $296. The retracement appears relatively shallow compared to the size of the preceding move, an indicator of strong bullish structure. The bulk of daily closes over the last two weeks have been in the higher half of the daily trading ranges, a further bullish sign.

2. Short-Term Price Structure (Intraday)

On the intraday data for July 11–12, AAVE peaked at $317.58 then made a flat-to-down corrective move, finding support multiple times in the $295–$298 region. Throughout the last 24 hours, whenever the price approached this band, buyers stepped in (notably on the 12:00 and 14:00 UTC hours), consistently producing higher lows in this zone. The inability to break below $295 for any extended period, despite profit-taking, highlights underlying market strength.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $295–$296 (multiple reactions, high volume absorption)
• Next Major Support: $287
• Immediate Resistance: $306–$308 (minor previous peaks)
• Major Resistance: $316–$320 (recent cycle top)

4. Moving Averages

• 20-Day EMA: Estimated at $284 (based on recent closes)
• 50-Day EMA: Estimated at $265
• 200-Day EMA: Well below at ~$190.

The current price is decisively above all key moving averages. The 20 and 50 EMA have a strong upward slope, confirming momentum. Typical retracement levels would expect at least a retest of the 20 EMA, but recent shallow pullbacks suggest very strong buyer control.

5. Volume Analysis

Volumes have spiked sharply in the last five sessions, especially during green candles. The July 10–11 session saw the highest volume in months as the price surged through resistance. This is classic signs of a breakout and new money entering. The decline in volume during pullbacks, with no major selling spikes, points to a healthy consolidation and high conviction buyers.

6. Candle Pattern Analysis

Recent sessions show a series of small-bodied candles with wicks on both sides, indicating some indecision but broadly consolidation above support. There is no evidence of a strong bearish engulfing or topping pattern; rather, the consolidation is holding bullish orderflow.

7. RSI and Momentum Indicators

• Daily RSI: Approaching 67–70 (estimated) – at the top edge, but not yet in extreme overbought territory. Suggests strong momentum, but not an urgent reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Captures recent cooling off; now near 43–50 from an earlier 70+, resetting the signal for a new bullish push.
• MACD (Short-Term): Positive, but histogram declining – indicative of a brief consolidation after the surge.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

From the impulse low ($254) to the recent high ($317):

• 23.6% retracement: $300 (already tested)
• 38.2% retracement: $290

Price has pulled back right into the shallowest Fib zone, holding perfectly at 23.6%. This is a classic bullish continuation signal, especially following a breakout.

9. Order Flow and Market Depth

The market consistently absorbs profit-taking around $295. Aggressive sellers have failed to drive price below this zone, and spot volumes remain elevated. OTC and derivatives markets (if available) would likely show options open interest clustering around $300, suggesting institutional targets.

10. Pattern Recognition and Price Action

This price action forms a textbook bull flag or pennant: The sharp move up (flagpole), followed by a brief sideways/slightly downward consolidation (flag). The most probable outcome statistically is a breakout continuation, targeting another leg up.

11. Volatility and ATR Analysis

7-day ATR exceeds $15, indicating the market is prepared for large moves. Daily tightness near support points to coil/breakout potential.

12. Ichimoku Cloud (Estimation)

• Price well above the cloud, bullish trend confirmed
• Leading Span A & B rising steeply – trend strongly up
• Lagging Span far above price – confirms strength

13. Elliott Wave Analysis

This latest move fits as an extended Wave 3, with current consolidation as a minor Wave 4, implying the next move up could be a final push (Wave 5), typically volatile but powerful.

14. Sentiment, Context, and Conclusion

Momentum, trend structure, volume, and pattern logic align for a bullish continuation. While aggressive upside has caused some near-term overbought conditions, there is still room for another impulse to challenge and likely break the $317 high, potentially running to $330+ in the next 24 hours, based on ATR and previous breakouts.

15. Trading Plan: Buy or Sell?

Given all signals, a BUY (LONG) position is optimal. The $295–$296 zone is both a major support and ideal risk/reward entry. Price has proven repeatedly unable to stay below this level over the past 24 hours.

16. Optimal Entry & Take Profit

• Buy Entry: $296.2 (current price, close to proven support)
• Target/Take Profit: $316.5 (test of the local high, just under resistance, aligned with the previous cycle top – offers a measured move from the bull flag breakout)
• Stop Loss (not required but ideal): $286 (below key support/Fib)

Prediction

AAVE will likely break upward in the next 24 hours, with the first challenge at $308–$310, and a likely push to retest $317.50. If that level breaks, momentum could extend quickly toward $330. Odds favor bullish continuation unless a macro shock or large-volume breakdown below $286 occurs.

Summary

Recommendation: BUY at $296.2, target $316.5 for a high-probability, trend-following long setup.